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DOE OSTI2022

The impact of anisotropic thermal expansion on the isothermal annealing of polycrystalline α -uranium

Although grain growth impacts microstructural evolution in a wide variety of materials systems, the effect of anisotropic thermal expansion on grain boundary mobility and texture evolution has not been widely studied. Anisotropic thermal expansion occurs in multiple non-cubic metals, and the thermomechanical processing behavior of these materials can be better understood with further study into the impact of thermal expansion on grain boundary mobility and texture evolution. In this work, we develop a mesoscale phase field model of grain growth that includes the effect of anisotropic thermal expansion, which is applied to study polycrystalline α-uranium, a highly anisotropic metal. Three-dimensional simulations on polycrystalline a-uranium with and without thermal expansion eigenstrains are performed to study the grain boundary mobility and texture evolution as a function of temperature. A strain-free temperature of 933 K is selected, and the system is studied at within the range of 873 – 933 K at intervals of ten degrees, resulting in increasing thermal eigenstrain with decreasing temperature. We also estimate a grain boundary mobility prefactor and activation energy based on existing experimental data of isothermal annealing of α-uranium. The grain boundary mobility is found to display significant deviation from Arrhenius behavior with the inclusion of thermal expansion eigenstrain as the amount of thermal eigenstrain (and thus elastic strain energy within the system) increases. This result explains an experimentally observed grain boundary mobility deviation from Arrhenius behavior. Furthermore, the texture evolution is affected, such that the grain orientations become less random with increasing thermal eigenstrain, which could explain experimentally observed texture behavior. These results indicate that the effect of thermal expansion should be considered when predicting the thermomechanical processing behavior of α-uranium and other materials with anisotropic thermal expansion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Impact of Concentration and Extraction Methods on the Targeted Sequencing of Human Viruses from Wastewater

Sequencing human viruses in wastewater is challenging due to their low abundance compared to the total microbial background. This study compared the impact of four virus concentration/extraction methods (Innovaprep, Nanotrap, Promega, and Solids extraction) on probe-capture enrichment for human viruses followed by sequencing. Different concentration/extraction methods yielded distinct virus profiles. Innovaprep ultrafiltration (following solids removal) had the highest sequencing sensitivity and richness, resulting in the successful assembly of several near-complete human virus genomes. However, it was less sensitive in detecting SARS-CoV-2 by digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) compared to Promega and Nanotrap. Across all preparation methods, astroviruses and polyomaviruses were the most highly abundant human viruses, and SARS-CoV-2 was rare. These findings suggest that sequencing success can be increased using methods that reduce nontarget nucleic acids in the extract, though the absolute concentration of total extracted nucleic acid, as indicated by Qubit, and targeted viruses, as indicated by dPCR, may not be directly related to targeted sequencing performance. Further, using broadly targeted sequencing panels may capture viral diversity but risks losing signals for specific low-abundance viruses. Overall, this study highlights the importance of aligning wet lab and bioinformatic methods with specific goals when employing probe-capture enrichment for human virus sequencing from wastewater.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spitzer Phase-curve Observations and Circulation Models of the Inflated Ultrahot Jupiter WASP-76b

The large radii of many hot Jupiters can only be matched by models that have hot interior adiabats, and recent theoretical work has shown that the interior evolution of hot Jupiters has a significant impact on their atmospheric structure. Due to its inflated radius, low gravity, and ultrahot equilibrium temperature, WASP-76b is an ideal case study for the impact of internal evolution on observable properties. Hot interiors should most strongly affect the nonirradiated side of the planet, and thus full phase-curve observations are critical to ascertain the effect of the interior on the atmospheres of hot Jupiters. In this work, we present the first Spitzer phase-curve observations of WASP-76b. We find that WASP-76b has an ultrahot dayside and relatively cold nightside with brightness temperatures of 2471 ± 27 K/1518 ± 61 K at 3.6 μm and 2699 ± 32 K/1259 ± 44 K at 4.5 μm, respectively. These results provide evidence for a dayside thermal inversion. Both channels exhibit small phase offsets of 0.68 ± 0.°48 at 3.6 μm and 0.67 ± 0.°2 at 4.5 μm. We compare our observations to a suite of general circulation models (GCMs) that consider two endmembers of interior temperature along with a broad range of frictional drag strengths. Strong frictional drag is necessary to match the small phase offsets and cold nightside temperatures observed. From our suite of cloud-free GCMs, we find that only cases with a cold interior can reproduce the cold nightsides and large phase-curve amplitude at 4.5 μm, hinting that the hot interior adiabat of WASP-76b does not significantly impact its atmospheric dynamics or that clouds blanket its nightside.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Percolating Interfacial Layers Enhance Conductivity in Polymer–Composite Electrolytes

Here, this study investigates the impact of the ceramic particle size on the bulk and interfacial ion transport properties of composite polymer electrolytes. The ceramic particles used for this study are micrometer-sized commercial lithium lanthanum titanate (LLTO) powders and LLTO nanorods (NR) prepared in the laboratory. The polymer matrices are vinylene carbonate (VEC) based single-ion-conducting (SIC) and dual-ion-conducting (DIC) polymer electrolytes. Our results reveal that the addition of LLTO NR results in improved ion transport, while the addition of commercial LLTO is ineffective or even detrimental. We ascribe these results to the formation of an interfacial polymer layer around the LLTO particles with enhanced Li + mobility and estimate the thickness of the interfacial layer to be ∼5 nm. The high surface-to-volume ratio of the LLTO NR leads to the percolation of the interfacial region at a relatively low ceramic loading of 30 wt %. This study highlights the importance of achieving percolation of the interface region (as opposed to the particles themselves) within the composite electrolyte when the interfacial layer is the enhancement mechanism.

Ock, Ji-young↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud micro- and macrophysical properties from ground-based remote sensing during the MOSAiC drift experiment

In the framework of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate Polarstern expedition, the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany, operated the shipborne OCEANET-Atmosphere facility for cloud and aerosol observations throughout the whole year. OCEANET-Atmosphere comprises, amongst others, a multiwavelength Raman lidar, a microwave radiometer, and an optical disdrometer. A cloud radar was operated aboard Polarstern by the US Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. These measurements were processed by applying the so-called Cloudnet methodology to derive cloud properties. To gain a comprehensive view of the clouds, lidar and cloud radar capabilities for low- and high-altitude observations were combined. Cloudnet offers a variety of products with a spatiotemporal resolution of 30 s and 30 m, such as the target classification, and liquid and ice microphysical properties. Additionally, a lidar-based low-level stratus retrieval was applied for cloud detection below the lowest range gate of the cloud radar. Based on the presented dataset, e.g., studies on cloud formation processes and their radiative impact, and model evaluation studies can be conducted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of Quantum Phase Transitions

This presentation covers a study of the formation of topological defects and excitations in dynamical (quenched) quantum phase transitions (theory, numerics, & BEC experiment). The FY20 main accomplishment has been the establishment of the role of the “sonic horizon” in the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM). Experimental aspects of the study, such as the numerical simulation of the expected dynamics) have been “on hold” due to COVID. Plans for the future entail studying the dynamics of quantum phase transition in 2D quantum Ising, as well as a BEC miscibility/immiscibility phase transition experiment (COVID permitting). The mission impact of this study is a contribution to LANL's “Science Discovery and Innovation” mission, e.g. to “Information Science and Technology”. (D-Wave is a dynamical phase transition.)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling detonation with CartaBlanca simulations

The accurate modeling of high explosive (HE) detonation and the con- sequent large solid deformation, failure, plastic flow, porosity growth, and shock wave propagation is important because simulations can capture spatial and temporal features that experimental diagnostics cannot capture. However, the simulation of the explosive event poses challenges to a computational scientist. These include the accurate modeling of ductile damage, crack formation, plastic deformation, as well as physical and nu- merical instabilities. The material response can be history-dependent and subject to large material deformation. Our research simulates the impact of a high explosive (Detasheet) onto a tantulum metal plate. We performed the simulations using CartaBlanca at different mesh resolutions. We decided the study would be impactful if we perform the simulations with the Material Point Method. Differences were observed at the different mesh resolutions in velocity and nodal stress magnitude, so increased mesh resolutions may be required. In addition, the Discontinuous Galerkin method would be needed to account for the large gas expansion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular level characterization of wildfire aerosol induced changes to plant health and value

The potential impacts of wildfire smoke on plant health and value are of increasing concern, due both to increasing awareness, and more frequent wildfire events. Wildfires produce substantial amounts of atmospheric pollution in smoke and particulate matter which can travel thousands of miles. These smoke events can blanket entire agricultural regions and cause impacts to plant development. One notable example of this is ‘smoke taint’ in wine, where vines, exposed to smoke, absorb many small volatile phenolic (VP) compounds. These VPs can be metabolized (glycosylated) and transported throughout the plant. Later, during downstream processing (fermentation of the grape musts), these glycosylated VPs can be hydrolyzed to re-release and volatilize the aroma-active phenolic compounds. The final product, thus, smells of smoke. Despite the obvious commercial and general research interests here, the nature of wildfire impacts on plant health are incompletely understood. Using established metabolomics and organic matter (aerosol) characterization methods, the overall aim of this proposal is thus to study wildfire smoke impacts on plant health and value, in the context of a model system (V. vinifera). This project closed early, and this report reflects some of the limited work conducted prior to conclusions. Specifically, this report discusses some sample preparation and initial MALDI-mass spectrometry analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and Operation of Energy Systems with Large Amounts of Variable Generation: IEA Wind TCP Task 25 (Final Summary Report)

This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying System Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles in an Urban Corridor

Numerous studies have demonstrated significant energy reduction for an ego vehicle by up to 20% leveraging Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technologies [1-4]. Some studies have also analyzed the impact of such vehicles on the energy consumption of other vehicles in a suburban or a highway corridor [5, 6], but the impact in an urban setting has not been studied yet. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), in collaboration with Continental and Hyundai, is currently working on a Department of Energy funded project that is focused on quantifying the impact of multiple ego vehicles (smart vehicles) on the total energy consumption of the corridor under various traffic conditions, vehicle electrification level, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology penetration, and the number of smart (ego) vehicles in an urban setting. A six-kilometer-long urban corridor from Columbus, Ohio was modeled and calibrated with real-world data in PTV Vissim traffic microsimulation software. Five forward-looking powertrain models, consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles, were developed to estimate the energy consumption of vehicles on the corridor. A comprehensive full factorial simulation study was performed. The simulation results indicate that for a traffic mix based on projected new vehicles sales in 2025, a 15% corridor-level energy consumption reduction can be achieved. The paper details the development and validation of the simulation framework, design of experiments conducted, a discussion of challenges faced, and results under various test conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Intersection Control on Battery Electric Vehicle Energy Consumption

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have significantly increased in recent years. They have different energy consumption patterns compared to the fuel consumption patterns of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This study quantified the impact of intersection control approaches—roundabout, traffic signal, and two-way stop controls—on BEVs’ energy consumption. The paper systematically investigates BEVs’ energy consumption patterns compared to the fuel consumption of ICEVs. The results indicate that BEVs’ energy consumption patterns are significantly different than ICEVs’ patterns. For example, for BEVs approaching a high-speed intersection, the roundabout was found to be the most energy-efficient intersection control, while the two-way stop sign was the least efficient. In contrast, for ICEVs, the two-way stop sign was the most fuel-efficient control, while the roundabout was the least efficient. Findings also indicate that the energy saving of traffic signal coordination was less significant for BEVs compared to the fuel consumption of ICEVs since more regenerative energy is produced when partial or poorly coordinated signal plans are implemented. The study confirms that BEV regenerative energy is a major factor in energy efficiency, and that BEVs recover different amounts of energy in different urban driving environments. The study suggests that new transportation facilities and control strategies should be designed to enhance BEVs’ energy efficiency, particularly in zero emission zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle cost, energy, and carbon emissions of molds for precast concrete: Exploring the impacts of material choices and additive manufacturing

Molds for precast concrete are commonly used to create simple- to complex-shaped concrete products away from construction sites. These molds are often handmade from wood; however, additively manufacturing (AM, or 3D printing) fiber-reinforced polymer composites is an advantageous alternative, producing significantly more durable, highly complex molds faster, but likely at a higher cost. Here, this study explores the impact of material and production variables on the cost, energy, and carbon emissions of employing composite AM molds over the full lifecycle. The case study employed techno-economic and life cycle assessments to show that using wood flour–poly(lactic acid) or recycled carbon fiber–acrylonitrile butadiene styrene for AM molds can be less expensive than conventional wood molds, especially when considering use phase costs. While wood molds have the least environmental impacts due to wood's higher biogenic carbon sequestration and minimal processing, optimizing AM designs could reduce energy demand, carbon emissions, and cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗