Considering the Combined Hazards of Spaceflight and Implications for Comprehensive Radiation Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment↗
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Results for “hazard models”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Tape heating method for space simulation testing
An ohmic heating technique for simulating the solar heat input to a spacecraft during space environment testing was developed. Tests of spacecraft radiator sample panels were used to evaluate the heating method for its potential hazard to sensitive surfaces and for its application accuracy prior to use in full scale thermal vacuum tests of flight spacecraft and thermal models.
Presley, H. W.↗
Interagency Report on Orbital Debris, 1995
This 1995 report updates the findings and recommendations of the 1989 report and reflects the authors' progress in understanding and managing the orbital debris environment. It provides an up-to-date portrait of their measurement, modeling, and mitigation efforts; and a set of recommendations outlining specific steps they should pursue, both domestically and internationally, to minimize the potential hazard posed by orbital debris.
Source record↗
Exercise Countermeasures for Bone Loss During Space Flight: A Method for the Study of Ground Reaction Forces and their Implications for Bone Strain
Effective countermeasures to prevent loss of bone mineral during long duration space flight remain elusive. Despite an exercise program on MIR flights, the data from LeBlanc et al. (1996) indicated that there was still a mean rate of loss of bone mineral density in the proximal femur of 1.58% per month (n=18, flight duration 4 - 14.4 months). The specific mechanisms regulating bone mass are not known, but most investigators agree that bone maintenance is largely dependent upon mechanical demand and the resultant local bone strains. A plausible hypothesis is that bone loss during space flight, such as that reported by LeBlanc et al. (1996), may result from failure to effectively load the skeleton in order to generate localized bone strains of sufficient magnitude to prevent disuse osteoporosis. A variety of methods have been proposed to simulate locomotor exercise in reduced gravity. In such simulations, and in an actual microgravity environment, a gravity replacement load (GRL) must always be added to return the exercising subject to the support surface and the resulting skeletal load is critically dependent upon the magnitude of the GRL. To our knowledge, GRLs during orbital flight have only been measured once (on STS 81) and it is likely that most or all prior treadmill exercise in space has used GRLs that were less than one body weight. McCrory (1997) has shown that subjects walking and running in simulated zero-G can tolerate GRLs of 1 if an appropriate harness is used. Several investigators have attempted to measure in vivo strains and forces in the bones of humans, but have faced ethical and technical limitations. The anteromedial aspect of the tibial midshaft has been a common site for the placement of strain gauges; one reason to measure strains in the anterior tibia is that this region is surgically accessible. Aamodt et al. (1997) were able to measure strains on the lateral surface of the proximal femur only because their experimental subjects were already scheduled for hip surgery. Lu et al. (1997) used an instrumented massive proximal femoral prosthesis along with electromyographic measurements to demonstrate that femoral forces depend on muscular activity. These analyses of in vivo bone mechanics are valuable. The invasive nature of the procedures involved, however, limits both the number of subjects and the number of strain gauge locations. Further, the results of these studies may be confounded by the inclusion of subjects with pathological conditions. Gross et al. (1992) measured strain at three locations on the equine third metacarpal and used those data to construct a computer model of the internal strain environment of the bone. An analogous placement of multiple gauges in living humans would be difficult and potentially hazardous because of the depth of soft tissue overlying the tibia and femur.
Peterman, M.↗
[High Pressure Gas Tanks]
Four high-pressure gas tanks, the basis of this study, were especially made by a private contractor and tested before being delivered to NASA Kennedy Space Center. In order to insure 100% reliability of each individual tank the staff at KSC decided to again submit the four tanks under more rigorous tests. These tests were conducted during a period from April 10 through May 8 at KSC. This application further validates the predictive safety model for accident prevention and system failure in the testing of four high-pressure gas tanks at Kennedy Space Center, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM). It is apparent from the variety of barriers available for a hazard control that some barriers will be more successful than others in providing protection. In order to complete the Barrier Analysis of the system, a Task Analysis and a Biomechanical Study were performed to establish the relationship between the degree of biomechanical non-conformities and the anomalies found within the system on particular joints of the body. This relationship was possible to obtain by conducting a Regression Analysis to the previously generated data. From the information derived the body segment with the lowest percentage of non-conformities was the neck flexion with 46.7%. Intense analysis of the system was conducted including Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), and Barrier Analysis. These analyses resulted in the identification of occurrences of conditions, which may be becoming hazardous in the given system. These conditions, known as dendritics, may become hazards and could result in an accident, system malfunction, or unacceptable risk conditions. A total of 56 possible dendritics were identified. Work sampling was performed to observe the occurrence each dendritic. The out of control points generated from a Weighted c control chart along with a Pareto analysis indicate that the dendritics "Personnel not Wearing Proper Protective and Hose/tubing located in high-traffic area" which account for 59.18% of total dendritic frequency need to be addressed to reduce the chance of a hazard from occurring. However, the occurrences of some dendritics are more important than others. As a result immediate, from a Weighted c perspective, corrective action should be taken to ameliorate the cause of the Class A dendritic "Personnel located under suspended or moving loads" rather than just the most commonly occurring dendritics. In any case the vast majority of data obtained indicates that testing operations possess a relatively high degree of safety.
Quintana, Rolando↗
Multi-Organization Multi-Discipline Effort Developing a Mitigation Concept for Planetary Defense
There have been significant recent efforts in addressing mitigation approaches to neutralize Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA). One such research effort was performed in 2015 by an integrated, inter-disciplinary team of asteroid scientists, energy deposition modeling scientists, payload engineers, orbital dynamist engineers, spacecraft discipline engineers, and systems architecture engineer from NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Department of Energy (DoE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) laboratories (Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) and Sandia National Laboratories). The study team collaborated with GSFCs Integrated Design Centers Mission Design Lab (MDL) which engaged a team of GSFC flight hardware discipline engineers to work with GSFC, LANL, and LLNL NEA-related subject matter experts during a one-week intensive concept formulation study in an integrated concurrent engineering environment. This team has analyzed the first of several distinct study cases for a multi-year NASA research grant. This Case 1 study references the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) named Bennu as the notional target due to the availability of a very detailed Design Reference Asteroid (DRA) model for its orbit and physical characteristics (courtesy of the Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission team). The research involved the formulation and optimization of spacecraft trajectories to intercept Bennu, overall mission and architecture concepts, and high-fidelity modeling of both kinetic impact (spacecraft collision to change a NEAs momentum and orbit) and nuclear detonation effects on Bennu, for purposes of deflecting Bennu.
Planetary Defense↗
Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft
The Single-aisle Turboelectric AiRCraft with Aft Boundary Layer propulsor (STARC ABL) is a concept aircraft with a partial turboelectric powertrain. The complexity and integrated nature of the partial turboelectric powertrain architecture presents failure modes and hazards not found in conventional aircraft propulsion designs. Previously, various electrical and mechanical faults and associated recovery modes were demonstrated in a dynamic model of the powertrain. It was shown that certain faults were catastrophic without recovery logic, due specifically to the interaction of the subsystems. However, in each case, the logic, known as a reversionary control mode, enabled continued operation with assumed sufficient thrust to maintain safe flight. The current work evaluates the powertrain faults and recovery strategies using a full aircraft model in a piloted flight simulator, and places it in the context of current regulatory practice. Faults initiated in flight were successfully mitigated, with the accommodated aircraft subsequently evaluated against certification requirements for three-engine aircraft, which were shown to be appropriate for the STARC-ABL configuration.
STARC-ABL↗
Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft
The Single-aisle Turboelectric AiRCraft with Aft Boundary Layer propulsor (STARC ABL) is a concept aircraft with a partial turboelectric powertrain. The complexity and integrated nature of the partial turboelectric powertrain architecture presents failure modes and hazards not found in conventional aircraft propulsion designs. Previously, various electrical and mechanical faults and associated recovery modes were demonstrated in a dynamic model of the powertrain. It was shown that certain faults were catastrophic without recovery logic, due specifically to the interaction of the subsystems. However, in each case, the logic, known as a reversionary control mode, enabled continued operation with assumed sufficient thrust to maintain safe flight. The current work evaluates the powertrain faults and recovery strategies using a full aircraft model in a piloted flight simulator, and places it in the context of current regulatory practice. Faults initiated in flight were successfully mitigated, with the accommodated aircraft subsequently evaluated against certification requirements for three-engine aircraft, which were shown to be appropriate for the STARC-ABL configuration.
STARC-ABL↗
Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft
The Single-aisle Turboelectric AiRCraft with Aft Boundary Layer propulsor (STARC ABL) is a concept aircraft with a partial turboelectric powertrain. The complexity and integrated nature of the partial turboelectric powertrain architecture presents failure modes and hazards not found in conventional aircraft propulsion designs. Previously, various electrical and mechanical faults and associated recovery modes were demonstrated in a dynamic model of the powertrain. It was shown that certain faults were catastrophic without recovery logic, due specifically to the interaction of the subsystems. However, in each case, the logic, known as a reversionary control mode, enabled continued operation with assumed sufficient thrust to maintain safe flight. The current work evaluates the powertrain faults and recovery strategies using a full aircraft model in a piloted flight simulator, and places it in the context of current regulatory practice. Faults initiated in flight were successfully mitigated, with the accommodated aircraft subsequently evaluated against certification requirements for three-engine aircraft, which were shown to be appropriate for the STARC-ABL configuration.
certification↗
Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather
The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of greater than ten MeV protons occur at an average rate of approx. 13 per year near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of > 100 McV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the 'streaming limit.' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a 'delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to approx. one GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral 'knee'. The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from approx. ten MeV to approx. one GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars.
Reames, Donald V.↗
Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards
A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.
Matney, Mark↗
Remote Sensing Information Science Research
This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.
Clarke, Keith C.↗
Modeling of Wake-vortex Aircraft Encounters
There are more people passing through the world's airports today than at any other time in history. With this increase in civil transport, airports are becoming capacity limited. In order to increase capacity and thus meet the demands of the flying public, the number of runways and number of flights per runway must be increased. In response to the demand, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in conjunction with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airport operators, and the airline industry are taking steps to increase airport capacity without jeopardizing safety. Increasing the production per runway increases the likelihood that an aircraft will encounter the trailing wake-vortex of another aircraft. The hazard of a wake-vortex encounter is that heavy load aircraft can produce high intensity wake turbulence, through the development of its wing-tip vortices. A smaller aircraft following in the wake of the heavy load aircraft will experience redistribution of its aerodynamic load. This creates a safety hazard for the smaller aircraft. Understanding this load redistribution is of great importance, particularly during landing and take-off. In this research wake-vortex effects on an encountering 10% scale model of the B737-100 aircraft are modeled using both strip theory and vortex-lattice modeling methods. The models are then compared to wind tunnel data that was taken in the 30ft x 60ft wind tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Comparisons are made to determine if the models will have acceptable accuracy when parts of the geometry are removed, such as the horizontal stabilizer and the vertical tail. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to observe how accurately the models could match the experimental data if there was a 10% error in the circulation strength. It was determined that both models show accurate results when the wing, horizontal stabilizer, and vertical tail were a part of the geometry. When the horizontal stabilizer and vertical tail were removed there were difficulties modeling the sideforce coefficient and pitching moment. With the removal of only the vertical tail unacceptable errors occurred when modeling the sideforce coefficient and yawing moment. Lift could not be modeled with either the full geometry or the reduced geometry attempts.
Smith, Sonya T.↗
Influence of Vegetation on Simulation of the Water Balance and Hydrological Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Western Tropical South America
Land surface models (LSMs) rely on vegetation parameters for use in hydrological and energy balance analysis, monitoring, and forecasting. This study examines the influence that vegetation representation in the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) LSM has on hydrological simulations across the diverse climate zones of western tropical South America (WTSA), with specific consideration of hydrological variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The influence of model representation of vegetation on simulated hydrology is evaluated through three simulation experiments that use 1) satellite-derived constant MODIS; 2) satellite-derived time-varying MODIS; and 3) the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model. We find substantial differences in vegetation fields between these simulations, with the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model diverging significantly from satellite-derived vegetation fields in many ecoregions. Impacts on simulated hydrology were, however, found to be modest across climate zones, except for select extreme events. Also, although impacts on hydrology under ENSO-induced variability were small, we find that the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model simulates a positive relationship between rainfall and vegetation in humid ecoregions of WTSA, where satellite observations may indicate the opposite. The relatively small sensitivity of simulated hydrology to vegetation scheme suggests that the performance of hydrological monitoring and forecasting in WTSA that uses Noah-MP is largely unaffected by the choice of vegetation scheme, such that using a simple climatological default is generally no worse than adopting more complicated options. The presence of some differences between the time-varying and constant MODIS simulations for hydrologic extremes, however, indicates that time-varying MODIS configuration might be more suitable for hydrological hazards applications.
South America↗
Review of Solar Energetic Particle Models
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.
Kathryn Whitman↗
A Computational Framework for Making Early Design Decisions in Deep Space Habitats
The dynamics of systems of systems often involve complex interactions among the individual systems, making the implications of design choices challenging to predict. Design features in such systems may trigger unexpected behaviors or result in large variations in safety, performance or resilience. To provide a means of simulating such systems for aiding in these decisions, we have developed a prototype tool, the control-oriented dynamic computational modeling tool (CDCM). The CDCM provides rapid simulation capabilities to perform trade studies in systems of systems. The general class of systems of systems that we aim to examine involve multiple hazards, damage, cascading consequences, repair and recovery. We especially focus on systems-of-systems that incorporate a health management system (HMS) that can monitor the state of the habitat and make decisions about actions to take. In this paper we describe the features of the CDCM, the architecture we devised for simulation of systems-of-systems, the unique functionalities of this tool, and we provide a demonstration of the capabilities by performing two illustrative examples. We articulate the use of this tool for making early design decisions and demonstrate its use for trade studies that consider a model of a deep space habitat. We also share some experiences and lessons that may be useful for others seeking to address similar problems.
Amir Behjat↗
A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems
The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.
Hatanaka, Iwao↗
Enhanced Monitoring and Forecasting of South Asian Air Quality Episodes with Multi-Sensor Satellite Products and Dispersion Modeling
Air pollution and particulates represent a serious environmental, public health, and overarching societal concern in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of south-central Asia, especially during the boreal winter and spring months. Frequent contributors to poor air quality of the region include dust and particulate matter transport from the Middle East region and western India, persistent nocturnal fog and smog during the stable dry monsoon months, and biomass burning during the pre-monsoon months of boreal spring. Nocturnal and multi-day persistent stable fog and smog events can occur during the stable conditions of the dry monsoon months that lead to hazardous visibility reductions (e.g., at major airports such as Delhi, India)and poor air quality, particularly in urban corridors.Our project goal is therefore to design and implement a robust air quality and chemistry observation and modeling system using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. This system effectively assimilates aerosol and trace gas retrievals from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites to advance the monitoring and prediction capabilities of air quality and visibility reductions throughout the HKH region. For this presentation, we highlight several[multi-spectral] geostationary satellite products and dispersion modeling capabilities being developed and implemented for improved situational awareness and forecasting of air quality episodes.Launched in December 2018, the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) aboard the Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A (GEO-KOMPSAT-2A, or GK2A) provides 16 channels of multi-spectral information similar to the U.S. GOES-16/17 satellites. Proven community recipes for generating multi-spectral Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite products to detect specific meteorological phenomena are applied to the AMI data for the HKH region. We implemented four such RGB products consisting of truecolor with Rayleigh correction to aid in smoke detection; dust RGB for monitoring larger particulate matter; nighttime microphysics for fog/smog detection;and natural color fire RGB and the shortwave 3.8 micron channel for fire hot-spot detection.We additionally configured HYSPLIT for dust/sand dispersion and concentration forecasts over HKH. The HYSPLIT dispersion simulations are initially being conducted with two different methodologies: (1) dust/sand lofting based on initializing plume releases from visual inspection of the dust RGB imagery; and (2) dust/sand release and dispersion using the internal HYSPLIT algorithm that determines lofting from input wind speeds and prescribed land use. The goal is to develop a near real-time HYSPLIT modeling solution for routinely simulating the transport and dispersion of dust plumes across the HKH region. This presentation illustrates these products and capabilities for various use cases from the 2019 to 2021 period, highlighting a particularly unhealthy episode during late March 2021 across Nepal.
Remote Sensing↗