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NASA NTRS1997

Altered astronaut lower limb and mass center kinematics in downward jumping following space flight

Astronauts exposed to the microgravity conditions encountered during space flight exhibit postural and gait instabilities upon return to earth that could impair critical postflight performance. The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of microgravity exposure on astronauts' performance of two-footed jump landings. Nine astronauts from several Space Shuttle missions were tested both preflight and postflight with a series of voluntary, two-footed downward hops from a 30-cm-high step. A video-based, three-dimensional motion-analysis system permitted calculation of body segment positions and joint angular displacements. Phase-plane plots of knee, hip, and ankle angular velocities compared with the corresponding joint angles were used to describe the lower limb kinematics during jump landings. The position of the whole-body center of mass (COM) was also estimated in the sagittal plane using an eight-segment body model. Four of nine subjects exhibited expanded phase-plane portraits postflight, with significant increases in peak joint flexion angles and flexion rates following space flight. In contrast, two subjects showed significant contractions of their phase-plane portraits postflight and three subjects showed insignificant overall changes after space flight. Analysis of the vertical COM motion generally supported the joint angle results. Subjects with expanded joint angle phase-plane portraits postflight exhibited larger downward deviations of the COM and longer times from impact to peak deflection, as well as lower upward recovery velocities. Subjects with postflight joint angle phase-plane contraction demonstrated opposite effects in the COM motion. The joint kinematics results indicated the existence of two contrasting response modes due to microgravity exposure. Most subjects exhibited "compliant" impact absorption postflight, consistent with decreased limb stiffness and damping, and a reduction in the bandwidth of the postural control system. Fewer subjects showed "stiff" behavior after space flight, where contractions in the phase-plane portraits pointed to an increase in control bandwidth. The changes appeared to result from adaptive modifications in the control of lower limb impedance. A simple 2nd-order model of the vertical COM motion indicated that changes in the effective vertical stiffness of the legs can predict key features of the postflight performance. Compliant responses may reflect inflight adaptation due to altered demands on the postural control system in microgravity, while stiff behavior may result from overcompensation postflight for the presumed reduction in limb stiffness inflight.

Clinical Trial↗

NASA NTRS1991

General patterns of flow field growth - Aa and blocky lavas

Lava flowfields consist of one or more flows. Four ideal emplacement regimes are recognized: that for single flows and that for flowfields dominated by (1) widening, (2) thickening, or (3) lengthening, as a result of generating new flows. Most aa and blocky lavas belong to the flowfield widening or single-flow regimes. These two regimes are analyzed assuming advance is controlled by the distal core of a flow, where motion is treated as steady, uniform, and laminar. Because of low deformation rates, the distal core is also approximated to a Newtonian fluid. Widening and, possibly, lengthening are ultimately limited by crustal resistance. After a critical cooling interval, new flows are generated from the upper reaches of the flowfield. A simple relation is derived linking flowfield dimensions and underlying slope to eruption duration, independent of terms involving gravity or lava chemistry and rheology. The relation well describes field data from several volcanoes (involving lava compositions from K phonolitic tephrite to dacite). This supports the premise that the overall growth of aa and blocky flowfields is systematic and also suggests that such growth may be predictable at timescales greater than, or similar to, the emplacement times of major flows.

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

J-2X Turbopump Cavitation Diagnostics

The J-2X is the upper stage engine currently being designed by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Propellant supply requirements for the J-2X are defined by the Ares Upper Stage to J-2X Interface Control Document (ICD). Supply conditions outside ICD defined start or run boxes can induce turbopump cavitation leading to interruption of J-2X propellant flow during hot fire operation. In severe cases, cavitation can lead to uncontained engine failure with the potential to cause a vehicle catastrophic event. Turbopump and engine system performance models supported by system design information and test data are required to predict existence, severity, and consequences of a cavitation event. A cavitation model for each of the J-2X fuel and oxidizer turbopumps was developed using data from pump water flow test facilities at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) together with data from Powerpack 1A testing at Stennis Space Center (SSC) and from heritage systems. These component models were implemented within the PWR J-2X Real Time Model (RTM) to provide a foundation for predicting system level effects following turbopump cavitation. The RTM serves as a general failure simulation platform supporting estimation of J-2X redline system effectiveness. A study to compare cavitation induced conditions with component level structural limit thresholds throughout the engine was performed using the RTM. Results provided insight into system level turbopump cavitation effects and redline system effectiveness in preventing structural limit violations. A need to better understand structural limits and redline system failure mitigation potential in the event of fuel side cavitation was indicated. This paper examines study results, efforts to mature J-2X turbopump cavitation models and structural limits, and issues with engine redline detection of cavitation and the use of vehicle-side abort triggers to augment the engine redline system.

Santi, I. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Assessment of CFD/CSD Prediction State-of-the-Art by Using the HART II International Workshop Data

Over the past decade, there have been significant advancements in the accuracy of rotor aeroelastic simulations with the application of computational fluid dynamics methods coupled with computational structural dynamics codes (CFD/CSD). The HART II International Workshop database, which includes descent operating conditions with strong blade-vortex interactions (BVI), provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of CFD/CSD to capture these physics. In addition to a baseline case with BVI, two additional cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) are available for comparison. The collaboration during the workshop permits assessment of structured, unstructured, and hybrid overset CFD/CSD methods from across the globe on the dynamics, aerodynamics, and wake structure. Evaluation of the plethora of CFD/CSD methods indicate that the most important numerical variables associated with most accurately capturing BVI are a two-equation or detached eddy simulation (DES)-based turbulence model and a sufficiently small time step. An appropriate trade-off between grid fidelity and spatial accuracy schemes also appears to be pertinent for capturing BVI on the advancing rotor disk. Overall, the CFD/CSD methods generally fall within the same accuracy; cost-effective hybrid Navier-Stokes/Lagrangian wake methods provide accuracies within 50% the full CFD/CSD methods for most parameters of interest, except for those highly influenced by torsion. The importance of modeling the fuselage is observed, and other computational requirements are discussed.

Smith, Marilyn J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Substrate Effects on Electronic Properties of Atomic Chains

When the device size is reduced down to 0.07 micrometers, the number of dopant atoms in the channel will no longer be macroscopic, typically less than a hundred. A spatial distribution of these dopant atoms will fluctuate statistically from device to device even in identically designed devices, and this places a serious limitation for integration. It is, however, impractical to control dopant positions within atomic dimension. One fundamental solution to this problem is to create electronics with atomically precise, but preferably simple structures. Atomic chains, precise structures of adatoms created on an atomically regulated surface, are candidates for constituent components in future electronics. All the adatoms will be placed at designated positions on the substrate, and all the device structures will be precise, free from any deviations. It was predicted using the tight-binding calculation with universal parameters that silicon chains were metallic and magnesium chains were semiconducting regardless of the lattice spacing, and a possible doping method was also proposed. In these treatments, the substrate was assumed to serve as a non-interacting template holding the adatoms without a formation of chemical bonding with substrate atoms. However, this scheme may not be easy to implement experimentally. Adatoms will have to be fixed with a van der Waals force on the substrate, but the force is generally weak and an extremely low temperature environment has to be prepared to suppress their unwanted thermal displacement. It may be logical to seek a scheme to allow the adatoms to form chemical bonding with the substrate atoms and secure their positions. The substrate effects are studied in detail.

Yamada, Toshishige↗

NASA NTRS1993

High temperature composite analyzer (HITCAN) user's manual, version 1.0

This manual describes 'how-to-use' the computer code, HITCAN (HIgh Temperature Composite ANalyzer). HITCAN is a general purpose computer program for predicting nonlinear global structural and local stress-strain response of arbitrarily oriented, multilayered high temperature metal matrix composite structures. This code combines composite mechanics and laminate theory with an internal data base for material properties of the constituents (matrix, fiber and interphase). The thermo-mechanical properties of the constituents are considered to be nonlinearly dependent on several parameters including temperature, stress and stress rate. The computation procedure for the analysis of the composite structures uses the finite element method. HITCAN is written in FORTRAN 77 computer language and at present has been configured and executed on the NASA Lewis Research Center CRAY XMP and YMP computers. This manual describes HlTCAN's capabilities and limitations followed by input/execution/output descriptions and example problems. The input is described in detail including (1) geometry modeling, (2) types of finite elements, (3) types of analysis, (4) material data, (5) types of loading, (6) boundary conditions, (7) output control, (8) program options, and (9) data bank.

Lackney, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Next generation initiation techniques

Four-dimensional data assimilation strategies can generally be classified as either current or next generation, depending upon whether they are used operationally or not. Current-generation data-assimilation techniques are those that are presently used routinely in operational-forecasting or research applications. They can be classified into the following categories: intermittent assimilation, Newtonian relaxation, and physical initialization. It should be noted that these techniques are the subject of continued research, and their improvement will parallel the development of next generation techniques described by the other speakers. Next generation assimilation techniques are those that are under development but are not yet used operationally. Most of these procedures are derived from control theory or variational methods and primarily represent continuous assimilation approaches, in which the data and model dynamics are 'fitted' to each other in an optimal way. Another 'next generation' category is the initialization of convective-scale models. Intermittent assimilation systems use an objective analysis to combine all observations within a time window that is centered on the analysis time. Continuous first-generation assimilation systems are usually based on the Newtonian-relaxation or 'nudging' techniques. Physical initialization procedures generally involve the use of standard or nonstandard data to force some physical process in the model during an assimilation period. Under the topic of next-generation assimilation techniques, variational approaches are currently being actively developed. Variational approaches seek to minimize a cost or penalty function which measures a model's fit to observations, background fields and other imposed constraints. Alternatively, the Kalman filter technique, which is also under investigation as a data assimilation procedure for numerical weather prediction, can yield acceptable initial conditions for mesoscale models. The third kind of next-generation technique involves strategies to initialize convective scale (non-hydrostatic) models.

Warner, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2013

Bayesian Approach for Reliability Assessment of Sunshield Deployment on JWST

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications, for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a Bayesian approach for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This approach was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the observatory's telescope and science instruments. In order to collect the prior information on deployable systems, detailed studies of "heritage information", were conducted extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Spacecraft Operational Anomaly and Reporting System (SOARS) data were then used to estimate the parameters of the conjugative beta prior distribution for anomaly and failure occurrence, as the most consistent set of available data and that could be matched to launch histories. This allows for an emperical Bayesian prediction for the risk of an anomaly occurrence of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, using prior deployment data and test information.

Kaminskiy, Mark P.↗

NASA NTRS1957

A Method for Predicting Lift Increments Due to Flap Deflection at Low Angles of Attack in Incompressible Flow

A method is presented for estimating the lift due to flap deflection at low angles of attack in incompressible flow. In this method provision is made for the use of incremental section-lift data for estimating the effectiveness of high-lift flaps. The method is applicable to swept wings of any aspect ratio or taper ratio. The present method differs from other current methods mainly in its ease of application and its more general application. Also included is a simplified method of estimating the lift-curve slope throughout the subsonic speed range.

WINGS, COMPLETE - TAPER AND TWIST↗

NASA NTRS1962

NASA Scout ST-1 Flight-Test Results and Analyses, Launch Operations, and Test Vehicle Description

The first of a series of flight tests for the development of the four-stage, solid-propellant Scout vehicle was conducted at the NASA Wallops Station under the direction of the Langley Research Center. Vehicle designation for the test was NASA Scout ST-1. Performance characteristics of the vehicle and components were recorded during a high-altitude probe mission. Flight-simulation studies are presented and show that the accuracy of the guidance system during the flight was within control-system design specifications. The control system functioned normally during the flight with the exception of an overpowering of the reaction-control roll jets near burnout of the third-stage rocket motor. The resulting roll displacement of the vehicle is shown to have caused the monitor tracking radar which had been erroneously tracking a radar beacon in the vehicle on a side lobe to reorient to the major lobe of the receiving antenna. This tracking switch falsely indicated a violent turning maneuver on the monitor plot board and resulted in a hold-fire decision for the fourth-stage rocket motor. Although data for the final thrusting and coast phase of the flight were not obtained, the majority of the test objectives were achieved. In-flight thrust misalignment angles for the second- and third-stage rocket motors derived from control-system error data and for the first-stage motor determined from flight-simulation studies are presented. All rocket-motor thrust misalignment angles were well within the tolerances used for control-system design. Rocket-motor flight performance is presented, and velocity increments attained from the first three stages substantiated the predicted nominal performance. Operation of the rocket motors was satisfactory with the exception of high-level vibrations which were encountered during third-stage motor burning. Rolling moments which overpowered the reaction-control jets are also attributed to the burning characteristics of the third-stage motor. A discussion of the premature loss of the third-stage heat shield is given and shows that the heat-shield latching mechanism failed from pressure loads as the vehicle entered the transonic speed range. Although venting was provided to relieve the high negative pressures known to exist on the heat shield at these speeds, a field modification of the wiring tunnel had the same effect as opening the inside of the heat shield to ambient pressures. Consequently, the latching mechanism failed from pressure loads which were of about the same magnitude as the latching-mechanism yield loads. Skin temperatures were recorded at several locations on the vehicle and were generally in good agreement with theoretical values. Aerodynamic heating presented no problem during the flight since the maximum temperatures recorded during the flight were only about half the design values because of the high-launch-angle trajectory. Environmental vibrations recorded in the vicinity of the guidance package showed that no significant continuous amplitude levels above the general instrumentation noise level were present during first- and second-stage burning. Large vibration amplitudes were recorded during third-stage burning which coincided with the large roll disturbance experienced by the vehicle near burnout of the third-stage motor.

Scout Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Use of Ferrofluids to Model Materials Processing (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund)

Many crystals grown in space have structural flaws believed to result from convective motions during the growth phase. The character of these instabilities is not well understood but is associated with thermal and solutal density variations near the solidification interface in the presence of residual gravity and g-jitter. To study these instabilities in a separate, controlled space experiment, a concentration gradient would first have to be artificially established in a timely manner as an initial condition. This is generally difficult to accomplish in a microgravity environment because the momentum of the fluid injected into a test cell tends to swirl around and mix in the absence of a restoring force. The use of magnetic fields to control the motion and position of liquids has received recent, growing interest. The possibility of using the force exerted by a non-uniform magnetic field on a ferrofluid to not only achieve fluid manipulation but also to actively control fluid motion makes it an attractive candidate for space applications. This paper describes a technique for quickly establishing a linear or exponential fluid concentration gradient using a magnetic field in place of gravity to stabilize the deployment. Also discussed is a photometric technique for measuring the concentration profile using light attenuation. Although any range of concentrations can be realized, photometric constraints impose some limitations on measurements. Results of the ground-based experiments indicate that the species distribution is within 3 percent of the predicted value.

Leslie, F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Path Planning of Montgolfier Balloons in Strong, Uncertain Wind Fields

Lighter-than-air vehicles such as hot-air balloons have been proposed for exploring Saturn s moon Titan, as well as other bodies with significant atmospheres. For these vehicles to navigate effectively, it is critical to incorporate the effects of surrounding wind fields, especially as these winds will likely be strong relative to the control authority of the vehicle. Predictive models of these wind fields are available, and previous research has considered problems of planning paths subject to these predicted forces. However, such previous work has considered the wind fields as known a priori, whereas in practical applications, the actual wind vector field is not known exactly and may deviate significantly from the wind velocities estimated by the model. A probabilistic 3D path-planning algorithm was developed for balloons to use uncertain wind models to generate time-efficient paths. The nominal goal of the algorithm is to determine what altitude and what horizontal actuation, if any is available on the vehicle, to use to reach a particular goal location in the least expected time, utilizing advantageous winds. The solution also enables one to quickly evaluate the expected time-to-goal from any other location and to avoid regions of large uncertainty. This method is designed for balloons in wind fields but may be generalized for any buoyant vehicle operating in a vector field. To prepare the planning problem, the uncertainty in the wind field is modeled. Then, the problem of reaching a particular goal location is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) using a discretized space approach. Solving the MDP provides a policy of what actuation option (how much buoyancy change and, if applicable, horizontal actuation) should be selected at any given location to minimize the expected time-to-goal. The results provide expected time-to-goal values from any given location on the globe in addition to the action policy. This stochastic approach can also provide insights not accessible by deterministic methods; for example, one can evaluate variability and risk associated with different scenarios, rather than only viewing the expected outcome.

Wolf, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rapid Aero Modeling for Urban Air Mobility Aircraft in Wind-Tunnel Tests

Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) applied to wind tunnel testing, RAM-T, is an approach to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing. The approach saves time and resources by responding to the demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity. Motivation for this demand is more acute when investigating a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft where many features from both aircraft and rotorcraft are present. RAM-T provides a feedback loop around the test facility to guide the test toward high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models. The general RAM approach is applicable to computational or physical experiments. It combines concepts from design of experiment theory and aircraft system identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. This paper presents results from tests conducted for development of an automated RAM-T technology. The results highlight some of the unique features of RAM applied to eVTOL configurations.

Aerodynamics↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multicomponent Gas Diffusion and an Appropriate Momentum Boundary Condition

Multicomponent gas diffusion is reviewed with particular emphasis on gas flows near solid boundaries-the so-called Kramers-Kistemaker effect. The aim is to derive an appropriate momentum boundary condition which governs many gaseous species diffusing together. The many species' generalization of the traditional single gas condition, either as slip or stick (no-slip), is not obvious, particularly for technologically important cases of lower gas pressures and very dissimilar molecular weight gases. No convincing theoretical case exists for why two gases should interact with solid boundaries equally but in opposite flow directions, such that the total gas flow exactly vanishes. ln this way, the multicomponent no-slip boundary requires careful treatment The approaches discussed here generally adopt a microscopic model for gas-solid contact. The method has the advantage that the mathematics remain tractable and hence experimentally testable. Two new proposals are put forward, the first building in some molecular collision physics, the second drawing on a detailed view of surface diffusion which does not unphysically extrapolate bulk gas properties to govern the adsorbed molecules. The outcome is a better accounting of previously anomalous experiments. Models predict novel slip conditions appearing even for the case of equal molecular weight components. These approaches become particularly significant in view of a conceptual contradiction found to arise in previous derivations of the appropriate boundary conditions. The analogous case of three gases, one of which is uniformly distributed and hence non-diffusing, presents a further refinement which gives unexpected flow reversals near solid boundaries. This case is investigated alone and for aggregating gas species near their condensation point. In addition to predicting new physics, this investigation carries practical implications for controlling vapor diffusion in the growth of crystals used in medical diagnosis (e.g. mercuric iodide) and semiconductors.

Noever, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Integrated Modeling Tools for Thermal Analysis and Applications

Integrated modeling of spacecraft systems is a rapidly evolving area in which multidisciplinary models are developed to design and analyze spacecraft configurations. These models are especially important in the early design stages where rapid trades between subsystems can substantially impact design decisions. Integrated modeling is one of the cornerstones of two of NASA's planned missions in the Origins Program -- the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) and the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). Common modeling tools for control design and opto-mechanical analysis have recently emerged and are becoming increasingly widely used. A discipline that has been somewhat less integrated, but is nevertheless of critical concern for high precision optical instruments, is thermal analysis and design. A major factor contributing to this mild estrangement is that the modeling philosophies and objectives for structural and thermal systems typically do not coincide. Consequently the tools that are used in these discplines suffer a degree of incompatibility, each having developed along their own evolutionary path. Although standard thermal tools have worked relatively well in the past. integration with other disciplines requires revisiting modeling assumptions and solution methods. Over the past several years we have been developing a MATLAB based integrated modeling tool called IMOS (Integrated Modeling of Optical Systems) which integrates many aspects of structural, optical, control and dynamical analysis disciplines. Recent efforts have included developing a thermal modeling and analysis capability, which is the subject of this article. Currently, the IMOS thermal suite contains steady state and transient heat equation solvers, and the ability to set up the linear conduction network from an IMOS finite element model. The IMOS code generates linear conduction elements associated with plates and beams/rods of the thermal network directly from the finite element structural model. Conductances for temperature varying materials are accommodated. This capability both streamlines the process of developing the thermal model from the finite element model, and also makes the structural and thermal models compatible in the sense that each structural node is associated with a thermal node. This is particularly useful when the purpose of the analysis is to predict structural deformations due to thermal loads. The steady state solver uses a restricted step size Newton method, and the transient solver is an adaptive step size implicit method applicable to general differential algebraic systems. Temperature dependent conductances and capacitances are accommodated by the solvers. In addition to discussing the modeling and solution methods. applications where the thermal modeling is "in the loop" with sensitivity analysis, optimization and optical performance drawn from our experiences with the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), and the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) are presented.

Milman, Mark H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Thermodynamic Derivation of the Activation Energy for Ice Nucleation

Cirrus clouds play a key role in the radiative and hydrological balance of the upper troposphere. Their correct representation in atmospheric models requires an understanding of the microscopic processes leading to ice nucleation. A key parameter in the theoretical description of ice nucleation is the activation energy, which controls the flux of water molecules from the bulk of the liquid to the solid during the early stages of ice formation. In most studies it is estimated by direct association with the bulk properties of water, typically viscosity and self-diffusivity. As the environment in the ice-liquid interface may differ from that of the bulk, this approach may introduce bias in calculated nucleation rates. In this work a theoretical model is proposed to describe the transfer of water molecules across the ice-liquid interface. Within this framework the activation energy naturally emerges from the combination of the energy required to break hydrogen bonds in the liquid, i.e., the bulk diffusion process, and the work dissipated from the molecular rearrangement of water molecules within the ice-liquid interface. The new expression is introduced into a generalized form of classical nucleation theory. Even though no nucleation rate measurements are used to fit any of the parameters of the theory the predicted nucleation rate is in good agreement with experimental results, even at temperature as low as 190 K, where it tends to be underestimated by most models. It is shown that the activation energy has a strong dependency on temperature and a weak dependency on water activity. Such dependencies are masked by thermodynamic effects at temperatures typical of homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets; however, they may affect the formation of ice in haze aerosol particles. The new model provides an independent estimation of the activation energy and the homogeneous ice nucleation rate, and it may help to improve the interpretation of experimental results and the development of parameterizations for cloud formation.

Cirrus clouds↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Second Law Based Unstructured Finite Volume Procedure for Generalized Flow Simulation

An unstructured finite volume procedure has been developed for steady and transient thermo-fluid dynamic analysis of fluid systems and components. The procedure is applicable for a flow network consisting of pipes and various fittings where flow is assumed to be one dimensional. It can also be used to simulate flow in a component by modeling a multi-dimensional flow using the same numerical scheme. The flow domain is discretized into a number of interconnected control volumes located arbitrarily in space. The conservation equations for each control volume account for the transport of mass, momentum and entropy from the neighboring control volumes. In addition, they also include the sources of each conserved variable and time dependent terms. The source term of entropy equation contains entropy generation due to heat transfer and fluid friction. Thermodynamic properties are computed from the equation of state of a real fluid. The system of equations is solved by a hybrid numerical method which is a combination of simultaneous Newton-Raphson and successive substitution schemes. The paper also describes the application and verification of the procedure by comparing its predictions with the analytical and numerical solution of several benchmark problems.

Majumdar, Alok↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗