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At least 595 records · Page 33

Analyzing historical snow trends in interior Alaska

Study region The Chena River watershed in Interior Alaska, USA Study focus This study examines 40 years (water years 1982–2021) of snowpack characteristics to consider its hydrological implications in the 5350 km² Chena River basin. Using observations and a fine-scale physics model, we analyzed trends of snow water equivalent (SWE), snow onset and disappearance, and snow cover duration (SCD). New hydrological insights for the region Results indicate a decline in SWE across the modeled domain, averaging a decrease of 3 mm per decade, with larger decreases (up to 10 mm per decade) at lower elevations. While domain-averaged SWE trends were not statistically significant, observed SCD showed statistically significant decreases: −5.2, −5.0, and −4.4 days per decade at Teuchet Creek, Fairbanks F.O., and Little Chena Ridge, respectively. Notably, observations at SNOTEL stations and modeling revealed no statistically significant change in domain-averaged Rain-on-Snow (ROS) events over the 40-year period, contrasting some regional future estimates of increased ROS frequency. Peak streamflow did not consistently correlate with peak SWE levels, suggesting that other environmental factors such as ROS events and rapid temperature increases (e.g., a 10°C spike observed in 1992) are key drivers of hydrological outcomes. These findings improve understanding of complex subarctic hydrological processes impacting permafrost and highlight the need for adaptive water resource management to mitigate multi-factor risks like flooding and wildfire, requiring proactive planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laser Doppler vibrometry for piezoelectric coefficient ($d_{33}$) measurements in irradiated aluminum nitride

Sensors used for experiments in advanced reactors must survive in harsh environments. Few material systems can be used to construct sensors viable for extreme conditions. Aluminum nitride (AlN) is one such material because it has high thermal stability and radiation resistance and sustains good piezoelectric and dielectric properties at high temperatures. In this work, the piezoelectric coefficient $d_{33}$ of the AlN single-crystal with thermal and irradiation damage was investigated using an indirect method with a laser Doppler vibrometer (LDV). Surface electrodes were deposited on the AlN samples, and the vibration response of the samples to an applied voltage was monitored using the LDV as a function of the excitation frequency. The $d_{33}$ estimation was based on the excitation voltage and the thickness-mode displacement extracted from the LDV measurements. Further, six AlN substrates were irradiated with 8 MeV Al 2+ at three fluences (10 15 , 10 16 , and 10 17 ions/cm 2 ) and two temperatures (300 °C and 500 °C). The $d_{33}$ for the six irradiated samples and one pristine sample were measured, and the measurement uncertainty was estimated based on five repeated tests. All samples were also measured by a commercial piezometer for comparison. The experimental results demonstrate that the piezoelectric coefficients obtained by LDV were about 0.8–1.16 pm/V lower than those obtained by the piezometer. With the compensation of the clamping effect, the corrected LDV values are similar to the piezometer results. Both show similar trends in all samples, which validates the feasibility of the proposed method for $d_{33}$ measurement. Based on the LDV results, the irradiated samples show a 12%–22% decrease in $d_{33}$ compared with the pristine samples. The samples irradiated under the same fluence at a higher temperature (500 °C) demonstrated a lower $d_{33}$ than those at 300 °C. The effect of the retro-reflective tape, sample temperature, and sample size on the $d_{33}$ measurement were also studied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sample spinning to mitigate polarization artifact and interstitial-vacancy imbalance in ion-beam irradiation

Accelerator-based ion-beam irradiation has been widely used to mimic the effects of neutron radiation damage in nuclear reactors. However, ion radiation is most often monodisperse in the incoming ions’ momentum direction, leading to excessive polarization in defect distribution, while the scattering under neutron irradiation is often more isotropic and has less radiation-induced polarization. Mitigation of the excess-polarization as well as the damage non-uniformity artifact might be crucial for making the simulation of neutron radiation by ion-beam radiation more realistic. In this work, a general radiation polarization theory in treating radiation as external polar stimuli is established to understand the natural material responses in different contexts, and the possibility to correct the defect polarization artifact in ion-beam irradiation. Inspired by Magic Angle Spinning in Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, we present a precise sample spinning strategy to reduce the point-defect imbalance effect in ion-beam irradiation. It can be seen that with optimized surface inclination angle and the axis of sample rotation, the vacancy-interstitial population imbalance, as well as the damage profile non-uniformity in a designated region in the target are both reduced. It is estimated that sample spinning frequency on the order of kHz should be sufficient to scramble the ion momentum monodispersity for commonly taken ion fluxes and dose rates, which is experimentally feasible.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Forecasting fluid-injection induced seismicity to choose the best injection strategy for safety and efficiency

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Autonomous Wireless Technology Detection in Seamless IoT Applications

The ever-increasing use of Internet of Things (IoT) devices results in the implementation of multiple wireless technologies that would not only cater their data rate requirements but also support various applications. To optimize the energy efficiency and security of the wireless transmission, it is imperative to identify the wireless technologies in various IoT implementations. Many of the existing approaches are based on measuring only the receiving signal strength indicator (RSSI). However, such approaches may not work well because of transmit power control and complex channel variations among different wireless technologies. In this article, we propose an autonomous wireless detection scheme that considers multiple distinguishable physical (PHY)-layer settings for real-time identification of wireless technologies for real-time applications. Specifically, the proposed scheme relies on the PHY-layer measurements of the targeted spectrum. Transmission settings, such as bandwidth, carrier frequency, and RSSI are estimated from the raw in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) measurements. In addition, a symbol-level extraction scheme is implemented to extract unique features of modulation settings. These aforementioned features are applied to a machine learning process to identify the received wireless technologies. Compared with raw I/Q measurements, the extracted features are much simplified and, thus, the machine learning classifier can be designed with a simple structure for fast processing on IoT nodes. Finally, the proposed schemes are primarily evaluated theoretically, followed by implementing them on a USRP software-defined radio (SDR)-based hardware testbed. The evaluation results demonstrate high accuracy in the real-time detection of different wireless technologies for seamless IoT applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Utah FORGE 6-3712: Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks by GTC Analytics, presented by Jesse Williams. This video slide presentation discusses the development of machine learning-based predictive tools to estimate the magnitude-frequency response of stimulation-induced seismicity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Short communication: Cosmogenic noble gas depletion in soils by wildfire heating

Measurements of cosmic-ray-produced beryllium-10, neon-21, and helium-3 in quartz in a soil profile from a forested landscape in the Oregon Coast Range show that the cosmogenic noble gases 21 Ne and 3 He are depleted relative to 10Be in the shallow subsurface. The noble gases are mobile in mineral grains via thermally activated diffusion and 10 Be is not, implying that noble gas depletion is the result of surface heating by wildfires and subsequent mixing of partially degassed quartz downward into the soil. Cosmogenic noble gas depletion by wildfire heating of soils is a potential means of estimating wildfire intensity and/or frequency over pre-observational timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Source record↗

DSN system performance test Doppler noise models; noncoherent configuration

The newer model for variance, the Allan technique, now adopted for testing, is analyzed in the subject mode. A model is generated (including considerable contribution from the station secondary frequency standard), and rationalized with existing data. The variance model is definitely sound; the Allan technique mates theory and measure. The mean-frequency model is an estimate; this problem is yet to be rigorously resolved. The unaltered defining expressions are noncovergent, and the observed mean is quite erratic.

Bunce, R.↗

Optimization of fringe-type laser anemometers for turbine engine component testing

The fringe type laser anemometer is analyzed using the Cramer-Rao bound for the variance of the estimate of the Doppler frequency as a figure of merit. Mie scattering theory is used to calculate the Doppler signal wherein both the amplitude and phase of the scattered light are taken into account. The noise from wall scatter is calculated using the wall bidirectional reflectivity and the irradiance of the incident beams. A procedure is described to determine the optimum aperture mask for the probe volume located a given distance from a wall. The expected performance of counter type processors is also discussed in relation to the Cramer-Rao bound. Numerical examples are presented for a coaxial backscatter anemometer.

Seasholtz, R. G.↗

Autoregressive harmonic analysis of the earth's polar motion using homogeneous International Latitude Service data

The homogeneous set of 80-year-long (1900-1979) International Latitude Service (ILS) polar motion data is analyzed using the autoregressive method (Chao and Gilbert, 1980), which resolves and produces estimates for the complex frequency (or frequency and Q) and complex amplitude (or amplitude and phase) of each harmonic component in the data. The ILS data support the multiple-component hypothesis of the Chandler wobble. It is found that the Chandler wobble can be adequately modeled as a linear combination of four (coherent) harmonic components, each of which represents a steady, nearly circular, prograde motion. The four-component Chandler wobble model 'explains' the apparent phase reversal during 1920-1940 and the pre-1950 empirical period-amplitude relation. The annual wobble is shown to be rather stationary over the years both in amplitude and in phase, and no evidence is found to support the large variations reported by earlier investigations. The Markowitz wobble is found to be marginally retrograde and appears to have a complicated behavior which cannot be resolved because of the shortness of the data set.

Chao, B. F.↗

Optimization of fringe-type laser anemometers for turbine engine component testing

The fringe type laser anemometer is analyzed using the Cramer-Rao bound for the variance of the estimate of the Doppler frequency as a figure of merit. Mie scattering theory is used to calculate the Doppler signal wherein both the amplitude and phase of the scattered light are taken into account. The noise from wall scatter is calculated using the wall bidirectional reflectivity and the irradiance of the incident beams. A procedure is described to determine the optimum aperture mask for the probe volume located a given distance from a wall. The expected performance of counter type processors is also discussed in relation to the Cramer-Rao bound. Numerical examples are presented for a coaxial backscatter anemometer. Previously announced in STAR as N84-25019

Seasholtz, R. G.↗

Kinetics and mechanism of HO2 and DO2 disproportionations

A flash photolysis/UV abosrption technique was used to study the HO2 + HO2 and DO2 + DO2 reactions in the gas phase. Rate constants were measured at pressures between 100 and 700 torr of Ar and N2, and at temperatures between 230 and 420 K with up to 10 torr of added water vapor. The overall disproportionation rate constants for the reaction is given as the sum of pressure-independent and pressure-dependent terms. A kinetic analysis shows that both reactions have a zero-pressure bimolecular component and a termolecular component which is linearly dependent on pressure up to 700 torr. A priori estimates of the vibrational frequencies of the product of the HO2 + HO2 reaction suggest binding energies of 12-20 kcal per mol (for the initial association).

Kircher, C. C.↗

Approximation methods in gravitational-radiation theory

The observation of gravitational-radiation damping in the binary pulsar PSR 1913 + 16 and the ongoing experimental search for gravitational waves of extraterrestrial origin have made the theory of gravitational radiation an active branch of classical general relativity. In calculations of gravitational radiation, approximation methods play a crucial role. Recent developments are summarized in two areas in which approximations are important: (a) the quadrupole approxiamtion, which determines the energy flux and the radiation reaction forces in weak-field, slow-motion, source-within-the-near-zone systems such as the binary pulsar; and (b) the normal modes of oscillation of black holes, where the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation gives accurate estimates of the complex frequencies of the modes.

Will, C. M.↗