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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Numerical modeling of the solar wind flow with observational boundary conditions

In this paper we describe our group efforts to develop a self-consistent, data-drivenmodel of the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium. The motion of plasma in this model is described with the MHD approach, while the transport of neutral atoms is addressed by either kinetic or multi-fluid equations. The model and its implementation in the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) are continuously tested and validated by comparing our results with other models and spacecraft measurements. In particular, it was successfully applied to explain an unusual SW behavior discovered by the Voyager 1 spacecraft, i.e., the development of a substantial negative radial velocity component, flow turning in the transverse direction, while the latitudinal velocity component goes to very small values. We explain recent SW velocity measurements at Voyager 1 in the context of our 3-D, MHD modeling. We also present a comparison of different turbulence models in their ability to reproduce the SW temperature profile from Voyager 2 measurements. The boundary conditions obtained at 50 solar radii from data-driven numerical simulations are used to model a CME event throughout the heliosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Intrinsic momentum generation by a combined neoclassical and turbulence mechanism in diverted DIII-D plasma edge

Fluid Reynolds stress from turbulence has usually been considered to be responsible for the anomalous toroidal momentum transport in tokamak plasma. Experiment by Müller et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 115001 (2011)], however, reported that neither the observed edge rotation profile nor the inward momentum transport phenomenon at the edge region of an H-mode plasma could be explained by the fluid Reynolds stress measured with reciprocating Langmuir-probe. The full-function gyrokinetic code XGC1 is used to explain, for the first time, Müller et al.'s experimental observations. It is discovered that, unlike in the plasma core, the fluid Reynolds stress from turbulence is not sufficient for momentum transport physics in plasma edge. The “turbulent neoclassical” physics arising from the interaction between kinetic neoclassical orbit dynamics and plasma turbulence is key in the tokamak edge region across the plasma pedestal into core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Non-linear plasma wake growth of electron holes

We report that an object's wake in a plasma with small Debye length that drifts across the magnetic field is subject to electrostatic electron instabilities. Such situations include, for example, the moon in the solar wind and probes in magnetized laboratory plasmas. The instability drive mechanism can equivalently be considered drift down the potential-energy gradient or drift up the density-gradient. The gradients arise because the plasma wake has a region of depressed density and electrostatic potential into which ions are attracted along the field. The non-linear consequences of the instability are analysed in this paper. At physical ratios of electron to ion mass, neither linear nor quasilinear treatment can explain the observation of large-amplitude perturbations that disrupt the ion streams well before they become ion-ion unstable. Here we show, however, that electron holes, once formed, continue to grow, driven by the drift mechanism, and if they remain in the wake may reach a maximum non-linearly stable size, beyond which their uncontrolled growth disrupts the ions. The hole growth calculations provide a quantitative prediction of hole profile and size evolution. Hole growth appears to explain the observations of recent particle-in-cell simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

The influence of hydrogen on the chemical, mechanical, optical/electronic, and electrical transport properties of amorphous hydrogenated boron carbide

Because of its high electrical resistivity, low dielectric constant (κ), high thermal neutron capture cross section, and robust chemical, thermal, and mechanical properties, amorphous hydrogenated boron carbide (a-B{sub x}C:H{sub y}) has garnered interest as a material for low-κ dielectric and solid-state neutron detection applications. Herein, we investigate the relationships between chemical structure (atomic concentration B, C, H, and O), physical/mechanical properties (density, porosity, hardness, and Young's modulus), electronic structure [band gap, Urbach energy (E{sub U}), and Tauc parameter (B{sup 1/2})], optical/dielectric properties (frequency-dependent dielectric constant), and electrical transport properties (resistivity and leakage current) through the analysis of a large series of a-B{sub x}C:H{sub y} thin films grown by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition from ortho-carborane. The resulting films exhibit a wide range of properties including H concentration from 10% to 45%, density from 0.9 to 2.3 g/cm{sup 3}, Young's modulus from 10 to 340 GPa, band gap from 1.7 to 3.8 eV, Urbach energy from 0.1 to 0.7 eV, dielectric constant from 3.1 to 7.6, and electrical resistivity from 10{sup 10} to 10{sup 15} Ω cm. Hydrogen concentration is found to correlate directly with thin-film density, and both are used to map and explain the other material properties. Hardness and Young's modulus exhibit a direct power law relationship with density above ∼1.3 g/cm{sup 3} (or below ∼35% H), below which they plateau, providing evidence for a rigidity percolation threshold. An increase in band gap and decrease in dielectric constant with increasing H concentration are explained by a decrease in network connectivity as well as mass/electron density. An increase in disorder, as measured by the parameters E{sub U} and B{sup 1/2}, with increasing H concentration is explained by the release of strain in the network and associated decrease in structural disorder. All of these correlations in a-B{sub x}C:H{sub y} are found to be very similar to those observed in amorphous hydrogenated silicon (a-Si:H), which suggests parallels between the influence of hydrogenation on their material properties and possible avenues for optimization. Finally, an increase in electrical resistivity with increasing H at <35 at. % H concentration is explained, not by disorder as in a-Si:H, but rather by a lower rate of hopping associated with a lower density of sites, assuming a variable range hopping mechanism interpreted in the framework of percolation theory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

High fidelity simulation and analysis of liquid jet atomization in a gaseous crossflow at intermediate Weber numbers

Recent advances in numerical methods coupled with the substantial enhancements in computing power and the advent of high performance computing have presented first principle, high fidelity simulation as a viable tool in the prediction and analysis of spray atomization processes. The credibility and potential impact of such simulations, however, has been hampered by the relative absence of detailed validation against experimental evidence. The numerical stability and accuracy challenges arising from the need to simulate the high liquid-gas density ratio across the sharp interfaces encountered in these flows are key reasons for this. In this work we challenge this status quo by presenting a numerical model able to deal with these challenges, employing it in simulations of liquid jet in crossflow atomization and performing extensive validation of its results against a carefully executed experiment with detailed measurements in the atomization region. We then proceed to the detailed analysis of the flow physics. The computational model employs the coupled level set and volume of fluid approach to directly capture the spatiotemporal evolution of the liquid-gas interface and the sharp-interface ghost fluid method to stably handle high liquid-air density ratio. Adaptive mesh refinement and Lagrangian droplet models are shown to be viable options for computational cost reduction. Moreover, high performance computing is leveraged to manage the computational cost. The experiment selected for validation eliminates the impact of inlet liquid and gas turbulence and focuses on the impact of the crossflow aerodynamic forces on the atomization physics. Validation is demonstrated by comparing column surface wavelengths, deformation, breakup locations, column trajectories and droplet sizes, velocities, and mass rates for a range of intermediate Weber numbers. Analysis of the physics is performed in terms of the instability and breakup characteristics and the features of downstream flow recirculation, and vortex shedding. Formation of “Λ” shape windward column waves is observed and explained by the combined upward and lateral surface motion. The existence of Rayleigh-Taylor instability as the primary mechanism for the windward column waves is verified for this case by comparing wavelengths from the simulations to those predicted by linear stability analyses. Physical arguments are employed to postulate that the type of instability manifested may be related to conditions such as the gas Weber number and the inlet turbulence level. The decreased column wavelength with increasing Weber number is found to cause enhanced surface stripping and early depletion of liquid core at higher Weber number. A peculiar “three-streak-two-membrane” liquid structure is identified at the lowest Weber number and explained as the consequence of the symmetric recirculation zones behind the jet column. It is found that the vortical flow downstream of the liquid column resembles a von Karman vortex street and that the coupling between the gas flow and droplet transport is weak for the conditions explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Relative influence of meteorological conditions and aerosols on the lifetime of mesoscale convective systems

Using collocated measurements from geostationary and polar-orbital satellites over tropical continents, in this paper we provide a large-scale statistical assessment of the relative influence of aerosols and meteorological conditions on the lifetime of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our results show that MCSs’ lifetime increases by 3–24 h when vertical wind shear (VWS) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are moderate to high and ambient aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases by 1 SD (1σ). However, this influence is not as strong as that of CAPE, relative humidity, and VWS, which increase MCSs’ lifetime by 3–30 h, 3–27 h, and 3–30 h per 1σ of these variables and explain up to 36%, 45%, and 34%, respectively, of the variance of the MCSs’ lifetime. AOD explains up to 24% of the total variance of MCSs’ lifetime during the decay phase. This result is physically consistent with that of the variation of the MCSs’ ice water content (IWC) with aerosols, which accounts for 35% and 27% of the total variance of the IWC in convective cores and anvil, respectively, during the decay phase. The effect of aerosols on MCSs’ lifetime varies between different continents. AOD appears to explain up to 20–22% of the total variance of MCSs’ lifetime over equatorial South America compared with 8% over equatorial Africa. Aerosols over the Indian Ocean can explain 20% of total variance of MCSs’ lifetime over South Asia because such MCSs form and develop over the ocean. Finally, these regional differences of aerosol impacts may be linked to different meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The impact of optical measurement techniques on measured aerosol particle size distributions

Ambient aerosol particle size distributions measured by the Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS) at various sites around the world exhibit modes at optical diameters near 600 nm and 850 nm. These modes are not present in concurrent measurements with the Grimm 11-D Optical Particle Counter (OPC). Here, in this study, we argue that these modes result from the optical measurement technique itself, and we explain why they appear in measurements by the UHSAS but not in those by the Grimm OPC. We construct computer models of the UHSAS and Grimm (“digital UHSAS” and “digital Grimm”) and use these to investigate the size distribution that would result from measurements of artificial aerosol particle size distributions that do not contain modes. The appearance of modes for the structureless incoming size distributions sampled by the digital UHSAS is explained by the nonlinear behavior of partial scattering cross sections of uniform spherical particles as a function of their diameter. The absence of modes in the digital Grimm is explained by the coarser size resolution of that instrument. Detailed analysis of the relationship between optical and geometric diameters for uniform spherical particles reveals two important results. First, these diameters generally have different numerical values for the same particle, and second, the relationship is nonlinear; thus, widths of size bins in terms of optical diameter differ from those in geometric diameter. These results explain the modes observed in the ambient size distributions and highlight concerns with attempts to create a merged size distribution by combining measurements from different instruments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

EVIDENCE AGAINST AN EDGE-ON DISK AROUND THE EXTRASOLAR PLANET, 2MASS 1207 b AND A NEW THICK-CLOUD EXPLANATION FOR ITS UNDERLUMINOSITY

Since the discovery of the first directly imaged, planetary-mass object, 2MASS 1207 b, several works have sought to explain a disparity between its observed temperature and luminosity. Given its known age, distance, and spectral type, 2MASS 1207 b is underluminous by a factor of {approx}10 ({approx}2.5 mag) when compared to standard models of brown-dwarf/giant-planet evolution. In this paper, we study three possible sources of 2MASS 1207 b's underluminosity. First, we investigate Mohanty et al.'s hypothesis that a near edge-on disk, comprising large, gray-extincting grains, might be responsible for 2MASS 1207 b's underluminosity. After radiative transfer modeling, we conclude that the hypothesis is unlikely due to the lack of variability seen in multi-epoch photometry and unnecessary due to the increasing sample of underluminous brown dwarfs/giant exoplanets that cannot be explained by an edge-on disk. Next, we test the analogous possibility that a spherical shell of dust could explain 2MASS 1207 b's underluminosity. Models containing enough dust to create {approx}2.5 mag of extinction, placed at reasonable radii, are ruled out by our new Gemini/T-ReCS 8.7 {mu}m photometric upper limit for 2MASS 1207 b. Finally, we investigate the possibility that 2MASS 1207 b is intrinsically cooler than the commonly used AMES-DUSTY fits to its spectrum, and thus it is not, in fact, underluminous. New, thick-cloud model grids by Madhusudhan et al. fit 2MASS 1207 b's 1-10 {mu}m spectral energy distribution well, but they do not quite fit its near-infrared spectrum. However, we suggest that with some 'tuning', they might be capable of simultaneously reproducing 2MASS 1207 b's spectral shape and luminosity. In this case, the whole class of young, underluminous brown dwarfs/giant exoplanets might be explained by atmospheres that are able to suspend thick, dusty clouds in their photospheres at temperatures lower than field brown dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF THE HIGH-ENERGY {gamma}-RAY EMISSION FROM LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 AND LS 5039

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) reported the first definitive GeV detections of the binaries LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 and LS 5039 in the first year after its launch in 2008 June. These detections were unambiguous as a consequence of the reduced positional uncertainty and the detection of modulated {gamma}-ray emission on the corresponding orbital periods. An analysis of new data from the LAT, comprising 30 months of observations, identifies a change in the {gamma}-ray behavior of LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303. An increase in flux is detected in 2009 March and a steady decline in the orbital flux modulation is observed. Significant emission up to 30 GeV is detected by the LAT; prior data sets led to upper limits only. Contemporaneous TeV observations no longer detected the source, or found it-in one orbit-close to periastron, far from the phases at which the source previously appeared at TeV energies. The detailed numerical simulations and models that exist within the literature do not predict or explain many of these features now observed at GeV and TeV energies. New ideas and models are needed to fully explain and understand this behavior. A detailed phase-resolved analysis of the spectral characterization of LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 in the GeV regime ascribes a power law with an exponential cutoff spectrum along each analyzed portion of the system's orbit. The on-source exposure of LS 5039 is also substantially increased with respect to our prior publication. In this case, whereas the general {gamma}-ray properties remain consistent, the increased statistics of the current data set allows for a deeper investigation of its orbital and spectral evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Constraints on cosmology from the cosmic microwave background power spectrum of the 2500 deg{sup 2} SPT-SZ survey

We explore extensions to the ΛCDM cosmology using measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from the recent SPT-SZ survey, along with data from WMAP7 and measurements of H {sub 0} and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO). We check for consistency within ΛCDM between these data sets, and find some tension. The CMB alone gives weak support to physics beyond ΛCDM, due to a slight trend relative to ΛCDM of decreasing power toward smaller angular scales. While it may be due to statistical fluctuation, this trend could also be explained by several extensions. We consider running of the primordial spectral index (dn{sub s} /dln k), as well as two extensions that modify the damping tail power (the primordial helium abundance Y{sub p} and the effective number of neutrino species N {sub eff}) and one that modifies the large-scale power due to the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect (the sum of neutrino masses ∑m {sub ν}). These extensions have similar observational consequences and are partially degenerate when considered simultaneously. Of the six one-parameter extensions considered, we find CMB to have the largest preference for dn{sub s} /dln k with –0.046 < dn{sub s} /dln k < –0.003 at 95% confidence, which strengthens to a 2.7σ indication of dn{sub s} /dln k < 0 from CMB+BAO+H {sub 0}. Detectable dn{sub s} /dln k ≠ 0 is difficult to explain in the context of single-field, slow-roll inflation models. We find N {sub eff} = 3.62 ± 0.48 for the CMB, which tightens to N {sub eff} = 3.71 ± 0.35 from CMB+BAO+H {sub 0}. Larger values of N {sub eff} relieve the mild tension between CMB, BAO, and H {sub 0}. When the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich selected galaxy cluster abundances (SPT{sub CL}) data are also included, we obtain N {sub eff} = 3.29 ± 0.31. Allowing for ∑m {sub ν} gives a 3.0σ detection of ∑m {sub ν} > 0 from CMB+BAO+H {sub 0} +SPT{sub CL}. The median value is (0.32 ± 0.11) eV, a factor of six above the lower bound set by neutrino oscillation observations. All data sets except H {sub 0} show some preference for massive neutrinos; data combinations including H {sub 0} favor nonzero masses only if BAO data are also included. We also constrain the two-parameter extensions N {sub eff} + ∑m {sub ν} and N {sub eff} + Y{sub p} to explore constraints on additional light species and big bang nucleosynthesis, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detailed investigation of the gamma-ray emission in the vicinity of SNR W28 with Fermi-LAT

We present a detailed investigation of the γ-ray emission in the vicinity of the supernova remnant (SNR) W28 (G6.4–0.1) observed by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. We detected significant γ-ray emission spatially coincident with TeV sources HESS J1800–240A, B, and C, located outside the radio boundary of the SNR. Their spectra in the 2-100 GeV band are consistent with the extrapolation of the power-law spectra of the TeV sources. We also identified a new source of GeV emission, dubbed Source W, which lies outside the boundary of TeV sources and coincides with radio emission from the western part of W28. All of the GeV γ-ray sources overlap with molecular clouds in the velocity range from 0 to 20 km s{sup –1}. Under the assumption that the γ-ray emission toward HESS J1800–240A, B, and C comes from π{sup 0} decay due to the interaction between the molecular clouds and cosmic rays (CRs) escaping from W28, they can be naturally explained by a single model in which the CR diffusion coefficient is smaller than the theoretical expectation in the interstellar space. The total energy of the CRs escaping from W28 is constrained through the same modeling to be larger than ∼2 × 10{sup 49} erg. The emission from Source W can also be explained with the same CR escape scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

X-ray cavities in a sample of 83 SPT-selected clusters of galaxies: Tracing the evolution of AGN feedback in clusters of galaxies out to z = 1.2

X-ray cavities are key tracers of mechanical (or radio mode) heating arising from the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). We report on a survey for X-ray cavities in 83 massive, high-redshift (0.4 7 Gyr at z∼0.8). On average, the detected X-ray cavities have powers of (0.8−5)×10{sup 45} erg s{sup −1}, enthalpies of (3−6)×10{sup 59} erg, and radii of ∼17 kpc. Integrating over 7 Gyr, we find that the supermassive black holes in BCGs may have accreted 10{sup 8} to several 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙} of material to power these outflows. This level of accretion indicates that significant supermassive black hole growth may occur not only at early times, in the quasar era, but at late times as well. We also find that X-ray cavities at high redshift may inject an excess heat of 0.1–1.0 keV per particle into the hot ICM above and beyond the energy needed to offset cooling. Although this result needs to be confirmed, we note that the magnitude of excess heating is similar to the energy needed to preheat clusters, break self-similarity, and explain the excess entropy in hot atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

QUASI-STATIC MODEL OF MAGNETICALLY COLLIMATED JETS AND RADIO LOBES. II. JET STRUCTURE AND STABILITY

This is the second in a series of companion papers showing that when an efficient dynamo can be maintained by accretion disks around supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei, it can lead to the formation of a powerful, magnetically driven, and mediated helix that could explain both the observed radio jet/lobe structures and ultimately the enormous power inferred from the observed ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays. In the first paper, we showed self-consistently that minimizing viscous dissipation in the disk naturally leads to jets of maximum power with boundary conditions known to yield jets as a low-density, magnetically collimated tower, consistent with observational constraints of wire-like currents at distances far from the black hole. In this paper we show that these magnetic towers remain collimated as they grow in length at nonrelativistic velocities. Differences with relativistic jet models are explained by three-dimensional magnetic structures derived from a detailed examination of stability properties of the tower model, including a broad diffuse pinch with current profiles predicted by a detailed jet solution outside the collimated central column treated as an electric circuit. We justify our model in part by the derived jet dimensions in reasonable agreement with observations. Using these jet properties, we also discuss the implications for relativistic particle acceleration in nonrelativistically moving jets. The appendices justify the low jet densities yielding our results and speculate how to reconcile our nonrelativistic treatment with general relativistic MHD simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line in the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with z>20pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bias in the effective field theory of large scale structures

We study how to describe collapsed objects, such as galaxies, in the context of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures. The overdensity of galaxies at a given location and time is determined by the initial tidal tensor, velocity gradients and spatial derivatives of the regions of dark matter that, during the evolution of the universe, ended up at that given location. Similarly to what was recently done for dark matter, we show how this Lagrangian space description can be recovered by upgrading simpler Eulerian calculations. We describe the Eulerian theory. We show that it is perturbatively local in space, but non-local in time, and we explain the observational consequences of this fact. We give an argument for why to a certain degree of accuracy the theory can be considered as quasi time-local and explain what the operator structure is in this case. Furthermore, we describe renormalization of the bias coefficients so that, after this and after upgrading the Eulerian calculation to a Lagrangian one, the perturbative series for galaxies correlation functions results in a manifestly convergent expansion in powers of k/k NL and k/k M , where k is the wavenumber of interest, k NL is the wavenumber associated to the non-linear scale, and k M is the comoving wavenumber enclosing the mass of a galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probing decaying heavy dark matter with the 4-year IceCube HESE data

After the first four years of data taking, the IceCube neutrino telescope has observed 54 high-energy starting events (HESE) with deposited energies between 20 TeV and 2 PeV . The background from atmospheric muons and neutrinos is expected to be of about 20 events, all below 100 TeV, thus pointing towards the astrophysical origin of about 8 events per year in that data set. However, their precise origin remains unknown. In this report we perform a detailed analysis of this event sample (considering simultaneously the energy, hemisphere and topology of the events) by assuming two contributions for the signal events: an isotropic power-law flux and a flux from decaying heavy dark matter. We fit the mass and lifetime of the dark matter and the normalization and spectral index of an isotropic power-law flux, for various decay channels of dark matter. We find that a significant contribution from dark matter decay is always slightly favored, either to explain the excess below 100 TeV, as in the case of decays to quarks or, as in the case of neutrino channels, to explain the three multi-PeV events. Also, we consider the possibility to interpret all the data by dark matter decays only, considering various combinations of two decay channels. We show that the decaying dark matter scenario provides a better fit to HESE data than the isotropic power-law flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic losses from extreme weather in the U.S. Gulf Coast region: spatially differential contributions of climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability

Worldwide economic losses from extreme weather events (EWE) have increased over recent decades, with significant geographic heterogeneity in damages. The IPCC defines the risk from EWE as a function of the climate hazard, socioeconomic exposure, and vulnerability. Although these three drivers vary at fine spatial scales, spatial variability largely has been overlooked in assessments of the drivers of economic loss from EWE. Using cluster analysis, we developed a novel socio-climate hazard typology (SCT) that integrates locally defined climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and social vulnerability typologies. The results identified 838 unique SCT types impacted by EWE across the Gulf Coastal United States during 1981–2010. We regressed the SCT types and their constituent hazard and socioeconomic components against the cumulative economic loss (1981–2010) from EWE for each SCT type. Across the landscape, economic damages of SCT types were determined by unique, spatially explicit combinations of different risk factors, even in explaining the same level of economic loss. For example, multi-billion-dollar damages in the central Gulf Coast and peninsular Florida were explained by different drivers of risk, with damages in the former explained by additive interaction between climate hazard and multiplicative interaction between climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, and in the latter explained by socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability. These results highlight the need to diagnose additive and multiplicative interactions among drivers of EWE risk in a spatially explicit context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE HELIOTAIL

The heliotail is formed when the solar wind (SW) interacts with the local interstellar medium (LISM) and is shaped by the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF). While there are no spacecraft available to perform in situ measurements of the SW plasma and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in the heliotail, it is of importance for the interpretation of measurements of energetic neutral atom fluxes performed by Interstellar Boundary Explorer. It has been shown recently that the orientation of the heliotail in space and distortions of the unperturbed LISM caused by its presence may explain the anisotropy in the TeV cosmic ray flux detected in air shower observations. The SW flow in the heliotail is a mystery itself because it is strongly affected by charge exchange between the SW ions and interstellar neutral atoms. If the angle between the Sun’s magnetic and rotation axes is constant, the SW in the tail tends to be concentrated inside the HMF spirals deflected tailward. However, the twisted field soon becomes unstable and the reason for the SW collimation within a two-lobe structure vanishes. We demonstrate that kinetic treatment of the H atom transport becomes essential in this case for explaining the lobe absence further along the tail. We show that the heliotail flow is strongly affected by the solar cycle that eliminates artifacts, which is typical of solutions based on simplifying assumptions. The heliopause in the tail is subject to Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, while its orientation and shape are determined by the ISMF direction and strength.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗