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DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Impact of Heliostat Size, Focus Method, and Optical Error on Concentrating Solar Tower Systems

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) tower systems use heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver. The efficiency of the heliostat field is crucial for achieving thermal generation targets and is also the largest cost component, making up 30-40% of total project costs. Developers face a tradeoff: reducing heliostat costs may decrease optical performance and increase land use, while improving performance could raise manufacturing costs (through higher precision). The optimal design depends on land, labor, and manufacturing costs. Additionally, inherent performance limitations exist - optical errors result in larger solar images as heliostats move farther from the receiver, increasing spillage and attenuation losses. Ultimately, there exists a point where receiver design power can no longer be achieved at design conditions for a given solar field area. This point depends on key heliostat field design parameters including field layout, heliostats size, focus method, and heliostat optical error. In this work, we explore and characterize the performance trade-offs between heliostat size, focus method, and optical error using Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulations using NREL's high performance computing resources. The goal of this fundamental investigation is to understand practical heliostat design performance impacts that can be used to produce more cost-effective heliostat fields while still achieving plant thermal generation targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Vetting galactic Leavitt law calibrators using radial velocities: On the variability, binarity, and possible parallax error of 19 long-period cepheids

We investigate the radial velocity (RV) variability and spectroscopic binarity of 19 Galactic long-period (P{sub puls} ≳ 10 days) classical Cepheid variable stars whose trigonometric parallaxes are being measured using the Hubble Space Telescope and Gaia. Our primary objective is to constrain possible parallax error due to undetected orbital motion. Using over 1600 high-precision RVs measured between 2011 and 2016, we find no indication of orbital motion on ≲5 year timescales for 18 Cepheids and determine upper limits on allowed configurations for a range of input orbital periods. The results constrain the unsigned parallax error due to orbital motion to <2% for 16 stars, and <4% for 18. We improve the orbital solution of the known binary YZ Carinae and show that the astrometric model must take into account orbital motion to avoid significant error (∼±100 μarcsec). We further investigate long-timescale (P{sub orb} > 10 years) variations in pulsation-averaged velocity v {sub γ} via a template fitting approach using both new and literature RVs. We discover the spectroscopic binarity of XZ Car and CD Cyg, find first tentative evidence for AQ Car, and reveal KN Cen’s orbital signature. Further (mostly tentative) evidence of time-variable v {sub γ} is found for SS CMa, VY Car, SZ Cyg, and X Pup. We briefly discuss considerations regarding a vetting process of Galactic Leavitt law calibrators and show that light contributions by companions are insignificant for most distance scale applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radiation hardened successive-approximation ADC with error detection circuits - 238

For several decades, radiation-hardened-by-design (RHBD) techniques have been developed to meet the design requirements of irradiating environment in nuclear power plants. Improvements on the circuit side for radiation sensors in performance, chip size, and radiation hardening ability have been adopted in current plant systems; however, next generation reactors and/or preparation for severe events in existing reactors require advanced circuit structures that can provide relatively long viability in harsh conditions. In order to maintain performances of electronics in high radiating environments, we propose to develop a small-area, low resource-overhead data-converter architecture that is immune to radiation impact events, an architecture that includes three kinds of novel radiation-hardened (rad-hard) designs for each analog and digital circuit in an ADC structure: a) error detectable tri-state buffer for flip flop against DSET, b) error detection storage in flip flop against SEU, and c) analog algorithm for the analog parts of an SAR ADC. The novel ADC architecture including the three RHBD techniques was implemented in a standard 180 nm CMOS technology with a 1.8 V supply voltage. Simulation results show that the techniques can successfully recognize errors induced by radiation impact events. The static power consumption was 123 {mu}W with the sampling rate 36 MS/s and resolution of 8 bits. The performances could be highly advanced under fine-tune designs. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermoacoustic range verification in the presence of acoustic heterogeneity and soundspeed errors - Robustness relative to ultrasound image of underlying anatomy

Purpose: To demonstrate robustness of thermooacoustic range verification to acoustic heterogeneity and discrepancies between assumed and true propagation speed, i.e., soundspeed errors. Methods: A beam sweeper was used to deliver 250 ns pulses that deposited 0.26 Gy of 16 MeV protons and 2.3 Gy of 60 MeV helium ions into water and oil targets, respectively. Thermoacoustic signals were detected by a 96-channel ultrasound array with a 1-4 MHz sensitivity band (-6 dB), bandpass filtered and backprojected to create thermoacoustic images in the plane of the ultrasound array. The same soundspeed and transducer array were used to estimate range and generate the ultrasound images onto which Bragg peak locations were overlaid. An air-gap phantom that displaced the Bragg peak by 6.5 mm demonstrated accuracy. Robustness to soundspeed errors was demonstrated in a waterbath as the assumed propagation speed scanner setting was altered by +/- 5%. Tissue-mimicking gelatin and a bone sample were introduced to demonstrate robustness to acoustic heterogeneity relative to ultrasound images of the underlying morphology. Results: Single ion pulse measurements sufficed during the helium run, but signal averaging was required for protons. Moreover, range and entry point into the target were estimated from data collected by transducers placed at least 6 cm distal to the Bragg peak. When ultrasound images depicted the air-target interface where the beam enters, estimates of the entry point agreed with ultrasound images and range estimates agreed with Monte Carlo simulations to within 300 mu m, even when thermoacoustic emissions traveled through a strongly scattering bone sample. Estimated Bragg peak locations were translated 6.5 mm by the air-gap phantom and correctly identified scenarios when the beam stopped inside the bone. Conclusions: Soundspeed errors dilate and acoustic heterogeneities deform ultrasound images. When thermoacoustic receivers are co-located with the ultrasound imaging array, the same transformations shift thermoacoustic range estimates. Hence, thermoacoustic range verification is robust relative to ultrasound images of underlying anatomy. When the treatment target is visible in ultrasound, e.g., prostate, online thermoacoustic range estimates could verify that the treatment spot is inside the target.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Using regime analysis to identify the contribution of clouds to surface temperature errors in weather and climate models

Many global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit a persistent bias in the 2 m temperature over the midlatitude continents, present in short-range forecasts as well as long-term climate simulations. A number of hypotheses have been proposed, revolving around deficiencies in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere energy exchange, poorly resolved low-level boundary-layer clouds or misrepresentations of deep-convective storms. A common approach to evaluating model biases focuses on the model-mean state. However, this makes difficult an unambiguous interpretation of the origins of a bias, given that biases are the result of the superposition of impacts of clouds and land-surface deficiencies over multiple time steps. This article presents a new methodology to objectively detect the role of clouds in the creation of a surface warm bias. A unique feature of this study is its focus on temperature-error growth at the time-step level. It is shown that compositing the temperature-error growth by the coinciding bias in total downwelling radiation provides unambiguous evidence for the role that clouds play in the creation of the surface warm bias during certain portions of the day. Furthermore, the application of an objective cloud-regime classification allows for the detection of the specific cloud regimes that matter most for the creation of the bias. We applied this method to two state-of-the-art GCMs that exhibit a distinct warm bias over the Southern Great Plains of the USA. Our analysis highlights that, in one GCM, biases in deep-convective and low-level clouds contribute most to the temperature-error growth in the afternoon and evening respectively. In the second GCM, deep clouds persist too long in the evening, leading to a growth of the temperature bias. In conclusion, the reduction of the temperature bias in both models in the morning and the growth of the bias in the second GCM in the afternoon could not be assigned to a cloud issue, but are more likely caused by a land-surface deficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Superselection rules, quantum error correction, and quantum chromodynamics

We investigate the relationship between superselection rules and quantum error correcting codes. We demonstrate that the existence of a superselection rule implies the Knill-Laflamme condition in quantum error correction. As an example, we examine the code built from quantum chromodynamics, where the proton and neutron states in the model are explored as different superselection sectors that protect logical information. Finally we comment on topological quantum error correcting codes and supersymmetric quantum field theory within this framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global error analysis of the Chebyshev rational approximation method

The Chebyshev rational approximation method (CRAM) has become a widely adopted method for solving nuclear depletion problems. Therefore, understanding CRAM’s accuracy is important for the safe operation of nuclear power plants. This article performs a global error analysis of CRAM and finds that, as the length of the time step approaches zero, the relative error measured between the exact and CRAM solutions at a fixed end time approaches one and infinity for even and odd orders, respectively; for intermediate time step sizes, a minimum in relative error is observed. Finally, we show that the reason for CRAM’s behavior is that the method is inconsistent. Two best practices for using CRAM, derived from these results, are: (1) use CRAM order 16 or higher, (2) if necessary, increase the CRAM order when multiphysics coupling requires smaller time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

A self-learning disturbance observer for nonlinear systems in feedback-error learning scheme

Here this paper represents a novel online self-learning disturbance observer (SLDO) by benefiting from the combination of a type-2 neuro-fuzzy structure (T2NFS), feedback-error learning scheme and sliding mode control (SMC) theory. The SLDO is developed within a framework of feedback-error learning scheme in which a conventional estimation law and a T2NFS work in parallel. In this scheme, the latter learns uncertainties and becomes the leading estimator whereas the former provides the learning error to the T2NFS for learning system dynamics. A learning algorithm established on SMC theory is derived for an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system. In addition to the stability of the learning algorithm, the stability of the SLDO and the stability of the overall system are proven in the presence of time-varying disturbances. Thanks to learning process by the T2NFS, the simulation results show that the SLDO is able to estimate time-varying disturbances precisely as distinct from the basic nonlinear disturbance observer (BNDO) so that the controller based on the SLDO ensures robust control performance for systems with time-varying uncertainties, and maintains nominal performance in the absence of uncertainties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Representativity error scaling of models of the high temperature test facility

Error scaling is a critical step toward the validation of modeling capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Extensive effort is being made to bring HTGRs into the validation basis of numerous thermal-hydraulics codes. Here, this paper demonstrates how systems-level codes can be leveraged to perform error scaling analyses between an experimental facility and a plant-to-be facility. Specifically, we focus on two conduction cooldown experiments from the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) and the General Atomics 350 MW th modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR-350). The error scaling methodology employed in this study is representativity, which in the context of this work was used to quantify how well experiments captured the physics of the plant facility by comparing sensitivity vectors between the two facilities. In addition, two different RELAP5–3D models of the HTTF were included in the comparison to determine if modeling methodologies notably impact the representativity results. The key figures of merit are the maximum block temperature and the coolant outlet temperature. The time-dependent maximum block temperature had a low representativity of below 0.1 for both models across both transients. The coolant outlet temperature had a higher representativity of around 0.6 for both models during the pressurized conduction cooldown, but it was below 0.2 for the depressurized conduction cooldown. Overall, the HTTF experiments were not representative of the transients in the MHTGR-350. However, these results can play a significant role in informing future potential experiments for HTGR systems that iterate on what the HTTF accomplished.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Automated Patient Identification and Localization Error Detection Using 2-Dimensional to 3-Dimensional Registration of Kilovoltage X-Ray Setup Images

Purpose: To determine whether kilovoltage x-ray projection radiation therapy setup images could be used to perform patient identification and detect gross errors in patient setup using a computer algorithm. Methods and Materials: Three patient cohorts treated using a commercially available image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) system that uses 2-dimensional to 3-dimensional (2D-3D) image registration were retrospectively analyzed: a group of 100 cranial radiation therapy patients, a group of 100 prostate cancer patients, and a group of 83 patients treated for spinal lesions. The setup images were acquired using fixed in-room kilovoltage imaging systems. In the prostate and cranial patient groups, localizations using image registration were performed between computed tomography (CT) simulation images from radiation therapy planning and setup x-ray images corresponding both to the same patient and to different patients. For the spinal patients, localizations were performed to the correct vertebral body, and to an adjacent vertebral body, using planning CTs and setup x-ray images from the same patient. An image similarity measure used by the IGRT system image registration algorithm was extracted from the IGRT system log files and evaluated as a discriminant for error detection. Results: A threshold value of the similarity measure could be chosen to separate correct and incorrect patient matches and correct and incorrect vertebral body localizations with excellent accuracy for these patient cohorts. A 10-fold cross-validation using linear discriminant analysis yielded misclassification probabilities of 0.000, 0.0045, and 0.014 for the cranial, prostate, and spinal cases, respectively. Conclusions: An automated measure of the image similarity between x-ray setup images and corresponding planning CT images could be used to perform automated patient identification and detection of localization errors in radiation therapy treatments.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards sharp error analysis of extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics

The extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics (XLMD) method provides a useful framework for reducing the computational cost of a class of molecular dynamics simulations with constrained latent variables. The XLMD method relaxes the constraints by introducing a fictitious mass ε for the latent variables and solving a set of singularly perturbed ordinary differential equations. While favorable numerical performance of XLMD has been demonstrated in several different contexts in the past decade, mathematical analysis of the method remains scarce. Here, we propose the first error analysis of the XLMD method in the context of a classical polarizable force field model. While the dynamics with respect to the atomic degrees of freedom are general and nonlinear, the key mathematical simplification of the polarizable force field model is that the constraints on the latent variables are given by a linear system of equations. We prove that when the initial value of the latent variables is compatible in a sense that we define, XLMD converges as the fictitious mass ε is made small with $\mathscr{O}$(ε) error for the atomic degrees of freedom and with $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) error for the latent variables, when the dimension of the latent variable d' is 1. Furthermore, when the initial value of the latent variables is improved to be optimally compatible in a certain sense, we prove that the convergence rate can be improved to $\mathscr{O}$(ε) for the latent variables as well. Numerical results verify that both estimates are sharp not only for d'=1, but also for arbitrary d'. In the setting of general d', we do obtain convergence, but with the non-sharp rate of $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) for both the atomic and latent variables.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy management systems for forecasted demand error compensation using hybrid energy storage system in nanogrid

This paper proposes an energy management system (EMS) for nanogrids to balance the power supply and forecasted demand in consideration of forecasting errors arising from high instantaneous demand. The proposed EMS employs a power-balancing optimization process for forecasted demand and a reference power modulation strategy for forecasting errors. This power-balancing optimization utilizes nanogrid sources, such as photovoltaics, fuel cells, and batteries, to meet forecasted demand and a supercapacitor charging process to overcome issues with a low energy density. The proposed reference power modulation strategy is utilized to allocate power from a hybrid energy storage system consisting of a battery and supercapacitor in order to compensate for forecasting errors. In addition, this proposed strategy considers battery and supercapacitor constraints such as the power changing rate and total power limitations. Further, the power-balancing optimization process also operates at faster sampling rate than the reference power modulation process in order to improve the computational efficiency. The performance of the proposed EMS is evaluated using real data obtained from the Korea Electric Power Exchange.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimized Auxiliary Functions for Robust Mitigation of Finite-Size Errors in Periodic Hybrid Density Functional Theory

When calculating properties of periodic systems at the thermodynamic limit (TDL), the dominant source of finite size error (FSE) arises from the long-range Coulomb interaction, and can manifest as a slowly converging quadrature error when approximating an integral in the reciprocal space by a finite sum. The singularity subtraction (SS) method offers a systematic approach for reducing this quadrature error and thus the FSE. Here, in this work, we first investigate the performance of the SS method in the simplest setting, aiming at reducing the FSE in exact exchange calculations by subtracting the Coulomb contribution with a single, adjustable Gaussian auxiliary function. We demonstrate that a simple fitting method can robustly estimate the optimal Gaussian width and leads to rapid convergence toward the TDL. Furthermore, we suggest new forms of the auxiliary function, whose optimal parameters could also be determined through least-squares fitting. For a range of semiconductors and insulators, the proposed auxiliary functions achieve robust, millihartree-level accuracy in hybrid density functional theory calculations, including cases with sparse k-meshes and large basis sets.

Quiton, Stephen Jon [University of California, Ber↗