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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Improving operations: Metrics to Results

As a result of the mission failure of the Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO) spacecraft in 1999, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) initiated the development of a Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) program to be implemented across all flight projects managed by JPL. One of the initiatives undertaken in 2001 was the collection of data on command file errors occurring in the operational phase of the mission. This paper defines command file errors and how and where they occur in the operations process. It also describes the problem reporting system (PRS) in use for mission operations at JPL. We examine the recent modifications to the PRS that enable the collection of metrics, specifically on command file errors. This paper discusses what the data show us since metrics have been collected for the operational missions conducted by JPL. We examine the evolution of an operational working group initiative to evaluate proximate, contributing, and root causes for the errors. As part of this discussion we see what the metrics have indicated over a decade. At the macro level, we can say that the aggregate command file error rate has been cut to roughly one third of the initial 2001 level by the end of 2011. Additionally, we explore efficient and innovative means to continually integrate the findings and recommendations from the working group back into the flight operations environment.

command file errors↗
NASA NTRS1979

Measurement of diffusion coefficients from solution rates of bubbles

The rate of solution of a stationary bubble is limited by the diffusion of dissolved gas molecules away from the bubble surface. Diffusion coefficients computed from measured rates of solution give mean values higher than accepted literature values, with standard errors as high as 10% for a single observation. Better accuracy is achieved with sparingly soluble gases, small bubbles, and highly viscous liquids. Accuracy correlates with the Grashof number, indicating that free convection is the major source of error. Accuracy should, therefore, be greatly increased in a gravity-free environment. The fact that the bubble will need no support is an additional important advantage of Spacelab for this measurement.

Krieger, I. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discretization Error Estimation and Control for Farfield Acoustic Signatures

We investigate the utility of adjoint-based error estimates for sonic boom farfield simulations governed by solutions of the augmented Burgers’ equation. Solution of this nonlinear system uses operator splitting with a second-order finite volume discretization in space and second-order Runge-Kutta time marching, while the absorption and molecular relaxation are solved using second-order central differencing. The discretization error in selected ground sonic boom cost functionals is estimated using the method of adjoint-weighted residuals. Key elements of the implementation process are emphasized with details provided on the practical aspects as appliedto the sonic boom farfield propagation. We establish the accuracy of the adjoint solutions usingcomplex step and finite difference approaches, and examine the accuracy of the error estimates using analytical N-wave solutions. We then apply it to a pressure waveform corresponding to the X-59 research aircraft. The investigations demonstrate that the method of adjoint-weighted residuals accurately predicts the level of discretization error present in sonic boom farfield simulations while offering insight into which features of the near field signal are the primary drivers of ground noise metrics. The numerical results indicate that at sampling frequencies as low as50kHz, discretization error in the propagation is under 0.01 dB[A] for realistically complex examples.

CST↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dosimetric impact of translational and rotational setup errors for spine stereotactic body radiotherapy: A phantom study

This study aimed to investigate experimentally the effect of translational and rotational setup errors on 3-dimensional dose distributions by using the gamma index and dose volumetric indices for spine stereotactic body radiotherapy. Treatment plans were designed in accordance with the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 0631 protocol. Measurements were taken using a Delta4 phantom (ScandiDos, Uppsala, Sweden). Setup errors were generated using the HexaMotion 6D moving platform (ScandiDos). Dose distributions in the presence of setup errors were evaluated, according to the γ passing rate with the 3% and 2 mm criteria (γ{sub 3%/2 mm}) and dose volumetric indices (D{sub 90} for the target volume and D{sub 2} for the spinal cord), using the Delta4 device (ScandiDos). The sensitivity coefficient, which represented the correlation between the γ{sub 3%/2 mm} passing rate and dose volumetric indices, was determined to assess robustness against setup errors. Rotational setup errors of 2° were equivalent to translational setup errors of 2 mm for the γ{sub 3%/2 mm} passing rate, D{sub 90} for the target, and D{sub 2} for the spinal cord. D{sub 90} for the target had low robustness against a translational setup error in the vertical direction and a rotational setup error in the pitch direction. D{sub 2} for the spinal cord was sensitive to a translational setup error in the lateral direction and a rotational setup error in the roll direction. The positioning accuracy of the rotational setup error, corresponding to the tolerance level of image-guided radiotherapy in the RTOG 0631 protocol, was required to be ≤ 2°.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of an Airborne Spacing Concept, On-Board Spacing Tool, and Pilot Interface

The number of commercial aircraft operations is predicted to increase in the next ten years, creating a need for improved operational efficiency. Two areas believed to offer significant increases in efficiency are optimized profile descents and dependent parallel runway operations. It is envisioned that during both of these types of operations, flight crews will precisely space their aircraft behind preceding aircraft at air traffic control assigned intervals to increase runway throughput and maximize the use of existing infrastructure. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to study the performance of an onboard spacing algorithm and pilots ratings of the usability and acceptability of an airborne spacing concept that supports dependent parallel arrivals. Pilot participants flew arrivals into the Dallas Fort-Worth terminal environment using one of three different simulators located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Langley Research Center. Scenarios were flown using Interval Management with Spacing (IM-S) and Required Time of Arrival (RTA) control methods during conditions of no error, error in the forecast wind, and offset (disturbance) to the arrival flow. Results indicate that pilots delivered their aircraft to the runway threshold within +/- 3.5 seconds of their assigned arrival time and reported that both the IM-S and RTA procedures were associated with low workload levels. In general, pilots found the IM-S concept, procedures, speeds, and interface acceptable; with 92% of pilots rating the procedures as complete and logical, 218 out of 240 responses agreeing that the IM-S speeds were acceptable, and 63% of pilots reporting that the displays were easy to understand and displayed in appropriate locations. The 22 (out of 240) responses, indicating that the commanded speeds were not acceptable and appropriate occurred during scenarios containing wind error and offset error. Concerns cited included the occurrence of multiple speed changes within a short time period, speed changes required within twenty miles of the runway, and an increase in airspeed followed shortly by a decrease in airspeed. Within this paper, appropriate design recommendations are provided, and the need for continued, iterative human-centered design is discussed.

Swieringa, Kurt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calculating a minimum overlap period for successful intercalibration of soil moisture sensors

Abstract Long‐term in situ soil moisture monitoring inevitably requires sensors to be replaced. Ensuing discontinuities in the data record can be mitigated by intercalibration, however it is unclear how long the existing sensor needs to remain alongside the newly installed before there is enough overlapping data to generate a robust intercalibration. We used 154 pairs of established and newly installed sensors within the Marena, Oklahoma, In Situ Sensor Testbed to determine if there is a minimum overlap time that should be considered when planning upcoming replacements. Hourly observations of the existing sensor were linearly calibrated to those of the newly installed sensor with coefficients determined from overlap periods incremented by 30 days until a reference period of 2 years was reached. The resulting bias, root‐mean‐square error, and correlation coefficient for sensor pairs indicate that a minimum of 6 to 9 months of overlapping data are required to generate a successful intercalibration. Extending that to a full year before decommissioning the old sensor results in a stable intercalibration with higher confidence.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2018

Determining Energies and Cross Sections of Individual Ions Using Higher-Order Harmonics in Fourier Transform Charge Detection Mass Spectrometry (FT-CDMS)

A general method for in situ measurements of the energy of individual ions trapped and weighed using charge detection mass spectrometry (CDMS) is described. Highly charged (> 300 e), individual polyethylene glycol (PEG) ions are trapped and oscillate within an electrostatic trap, producing a time domain signal. A segmented Fourier transform (FT) of this signal yields the temporal evolution of the fundamental and harmonic frequencies of ion motion throughout the 500-ms trap time. The ratio of the fundamental frequency and second harmonic (HAR) depends on the ion energy, which is an essential parameter for measuring ion mass in CDMS. This relationship is calibrated using simulated ion signals, and the calibration is compared to the HAR values measured for PEG ion signals where the ion energy was also determined using an independent method that requires that the ions be highly charged (> 300 e). The mean error of 0.6% between the two measurements indicates that the HAR method is an accurate means of ion energy determination that does not depend on ion size or charge. The HAR is determined dynamically over the entire trapping period, making it possible to observe the change in ion energy that takes place as solvent evaporates from the ion and collisions with background gas occur. This method makes it possible to measure mass changes, either from solvent evaporation or from molecular fragmentation (MS{sup n}), as well as the cross sections of ions measured using CDMS. .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmology Intertwined III: $f \sigma_8$ and $S_8$

The standard $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides a wonderful fit to current cosmological data, but a few tensions and anomalies became statistically significant with the latest data analyses. While these anomalies could be due to the presence of systematic errors in the experiments, they could also indicate the need for new physics beyond the standard model. In this Letter of Interest we focus on the tension of the Planck data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $\Omega_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($\sigma_8,f\sigma_8$). We list a few interesting models for solving this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit with a single model a full array of data and not just one parameter at a time.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation

The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Air compressor load forecasting using artificial neural network

Air compressor systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumed in United States and European Union industry. As many researches have proven the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Network inair compressor performance prediction, there is still a need to forecast the air compressor electrical load profile. The objective of this study is to predict compressed air systems’ electrical load profile, which is valuable to industry practitioners as well as software providers in developing better practice and tools for load managementand look-ahead scheduling programs. Two artificial neural networks, Two-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Networkand Long Short-Term Memory were used to predict an air compressors electrical load. Compressors with three different control mechanisms are evaluated with a total number of 11,874 observations. Here, the forecasts were validated using out-of-sample datasets with 5-fold cross-validation. Models produced average coefficient ofdetermination values from 0.24 to 0.94, average root-mean-square errors from 0.05 kW - 5.83 kW, and meanabsolute scaled errors from 0.20 to 1.33. The results indicate that both artificial neural networks yield goodresults for compressors using variable speed drive (average R 2 = 0.8 and no naïve forecasting), only the longshort-term memory model gives acceptable results for compressors using on/off control (average R 2 = 0.82 and no naïve forecasting), and no satisfactory results are obtained for load/unload type air compressors (models constituting active forecasting).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dataset of recorded electricity outages by United States county 2014–2022

In this Data Descriptor, we present county-level electricity outage estimates at 15-minute intervals from 2014 to 2022. By 2022 92% of customers in the 50 US States, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico are represented. These data have been produced by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I TM ), a geographic information system and data visualization platform created at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to map the population experiencing electricity outages every 15 minutes at the county level. Although these data do not cover every US customer, they represent the most comprehensive outage information ever compiled for the United States. The rate of coverage increases through time between 2014 and 2022. We present a quantitative Data Quality Index for these data for the years 2018–2022 to demonstrate temporal changes in customer coverage rates by FEMA region and indicators of data collection gaps or other errors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of global-density-dependent range-separation parameters based on machine learning

In this work, we develop an accurate and efficient XGBoost machine learning model for predicting the global-density-dependent range-separation parameter, ωGDD, for long-range corrected functional (LRC)-ωPBE. This ωGDDML model has been built using a wide range of systems (11 466 complexes, ten different elements, and up to 139 heavy atoms) with fingerprints for the local atomic environment and histograms of distances for the long-range atomic correlation for mapping the quantum mechanical range-separation values. The promising performance on the testing set with 7046 complexes shows a mean absolute error of 0.001 117 a0−1 and only five systems (0.07%) with an absolute error larger than 0.01 a0−1, which indicates the good transferability of our ωGDDML model. In addition, the only required input to obtain ωGDDML is the Cartesian coordinates without electronic structure calculations, thereby enabling rapid predictions. LRC-ωPBE(ωGDDML) is used to predict polarizabilities for a series of oligomers, where polarizabilities are sensitive to the asymptotic density decay and are crucial in a variety of applications, including the calculations of dispersion corrections and refractive index, and surpasses the performance of all other popular density functionals except for the non-tuned LRC-ωPBE. Finally, LRC-ωPBE (ωGDDML) combined with (extended) symmetry-adapted perturbation theory is used in calculating noncovalent interactions to further show that the traditional ab initio system-specific tuning procedure can be bypassed. The present study not only provides an accurate and efficient way to determine the range-separation parameter for LRC-ωPBE but also shows the synergistic benefits of fusing the power of physically inspired density functional LRC-ωPBE and the data-driven ωGDDML model.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2019

Achieving accurate energetics beyond (semi-)local density functional theory: Illustrated with transition metal disulfides, Cu 2 ZnSnS 4 , and Na 3 PS 4 related semiconductors

Understanding, designing, and processing functional metal sulfides are significant challenges partially because of the high temperatures and pressures and the number of secondary phases encountered in these complex systems. In particular, the underlying thermochemical properties are not well understood that would allow prediction of equilibrium conditions and driving forces. In addition, obtaining accurate values for the energetics of metal sulfide systems is far from complete, suggesting application of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Here, the results of an examination of 69 phases by DFT using 12 exchange-correlation (X-C) functionals indicate that (i) the key source of error in predicting the Gibbs energy of a phase is the enthalpy calculated at 0 K rather than entropy at finite temperatures from phonon calculations and (ii) an improved prediction of the thermodynamic properties at 0 K relies on the selected nonlocal X-C functional such as the hybrid potential. Regarding metal sulfides, we conclude from the present DFT results that (1) the secondary phase Cu 2 ZnSn 3 S 8 , associated with the desired photovoltaic material Cu 2 ZnSnS 4 , is not stable at 0 K, but it becomes slightly stable with increasing temperature (i.e., >800 K), primarily due to the vibrational entropy, which makes it difficult to be detected in a typical thin-film growth process; (2) the hybrid X-C functional improves the predicted energetics for most of the layered transition-metal disulfides such as TiS 2 , MoS 2 , and WS 2 , but not for the nonlayered RuS 2 , OsS 2 , and IrS 2 as well as the layered PdS 2 ; and (3) the formation of the solid-state electrolyte Na3PS4 is thermodynamically favored. We further conclude that accurate energetics as a function of temperature for the materials of interest is feasible to be achieved beyond the semilocal DFT calculations with the key being enthalpy predicted at 0 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Moment Tensor Source-Type Analysis for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea-Declared Nuclear Explosions (2006-2017) and 3 September 2017 Collapse Event

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its sixth announced nuclear test on 3 September 2017 03:30 UTC (mb 6.1). There was an aftershock 8.5 min later (mb 4.1). Such aftershocks were noteworthy and often associated with post–nuclear explosion collapses. We performed moment tensor (MT) and network sensitivity solution (NSS) analysis using regional long-period surface-wave and first-motion (FM) polarities. We also extended this analysis to the previous five DPRK nuclear tests. The NSS results, which include MT solution uncertainties, show large isotropic components for the events and are within the population of other U.S. nuclear and collapse events on the fundamental lune. The FM data improved the NNS source-type resolution. The agreement between MT seismic moments and independent coda-envelope amplitudes indicated no biases with the Earth model error or poorly constrained seismic moment for shallow seismic sources. The MT for the collapse is not a pure implosion and consistent with an equivalent tensional closing crack mechanism and two-sided vertical point force.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1966

Short Period Fluctuations in Intelligence Final Report

The problem of isolating fluctuations in intellectual function is one that has long intrigued both psychologists and non-psychologists, We are all aware of our own short-period physiological, mood and motivational changes and many believe that their intelligence must undergo similar change. 1965 for a recent review) does not provide support for this kind of argu- ment. It indicates that measures of intelligence - -at least those intended for use with people other than infants --are usually highly stable over both short and rather extended periods of time: the changes which are indicated have almost always been regarded as errors of measurement. Thus in scientific developments (as opposed, perhaps, to common- sense discussions) ;intelligence usually has been regarded as a highly stable attribute of man. But existing scientific evidence (see Tyler, A notable exception to the scientific theory arguing (albeit im- plicitly) that human intellect does not fluctuate over short period of time is that of Moran (1961) and his co-workers (Moran, Kimble & Mefferd, 1960; 1964; Moran & Mefferd, 1959). The work of these in- vestigators has been directed at designing alternate -form tests to measure some of what are now regarded as the major, replicated-by- research dimensions of human intelligence, viz., what are known as the primary mental abilities (French, 1951: French, Ekstrom & Price, 1963; Guilford, 1966; Guilford & Merrifield, 1960). The Repetitive Psychological Measures (RPM) resulting from this work are intended to assess "change in performance with time" (Moran & Mefferd, 1959: p. 269). little has been done to determine whether or not the performances actually assessed do, in fact, change in a reliable manner. Indeed, evidence somewhat contrary to an hypothesis of short-period change is provided by the high (relative to test length) test-retest correlations ob- tained over a period of 3 hours with the RPM tests (Moran & Mefferd, 1959; Table 2). Hence, while a basic hypothesis underlying this work certainly does imply that abilities change over short periods, evidence for this hypothesis either has not been developed or, where it has (as in test-retest correlations), does not provide convincing support for the hypothesis

Intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1974

C-band station coordinate determination for the GEOS-C altimeter calibration area

Dynamical orbital techniques were employed to estimate the center-of-mass station coordinates of six C-band radars located in the designated primary GEOS-C radar altimeter calibration area. This work was performed in support of the planned GEOS-C mission (December, 1974 launch). The sites included Bermuda, Grand Turk, Antigua, Wallops Island (Virginia), and Merritt Island (Florida). Two sites were estimated independently at Wallops Island yielding better than 40 cm relative height recovery, with better than 10 cm and 1 m (relative) recovery for phi and gamma respectively. Error analysis and comparisons with other investigators indicate that better than 2 m relative recovery was achieved at all sites. The data used were exclusively that from the estimated sites and included 18 orbital arcs which were less than two orbital revolutions in length, having successive tracks over the area. The techniques employed here, given their independence of global tracking support, can be effectively employed to improve various geodetic datums by providing very long and accurate baselines. The C-band data taken on GEOS-C should be employed to improve such geodetic datums as the European-1950 using similar techniques.

Krabill, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

C-band station coordinate determination for the Geos-C altimeter calibration area

Dynamical orbital techniques were employed to estimate the center-of-mass station coordinates of six C-band radars located in the designated primary Geos-C radar altimeter calibration area. This work was performed in support of the planned Geos-C mission (December 1974 launch). The sites included Bermuda, Grand Turk, Antigua, Wallops Island (Virginia), and Merritt Island (Florida). Two sites were estimated independently at Wallops Island yielding better than 40 cm relative height recovery, with better than 10 cm and 1m (relative) recovery for phi and lambda, respectively. The tracking data used in this analysis were taken during 1969 when the radars tracked the Geos-II transponder. In all, over 120 passes of data were used. Range biases were estimated. Error analysis and comparisons with other investigators indicate that better than 2m (1 sigma) relative recovery has been achieved at all sites.

Klosko, S. M.↗