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NASA NTRS2015

Standards for Radiation Effects Testing: Ensuring Scientific Rigor in the Face of Budget Realities and Modern Device Challenges

An overview is presented of the space radiation environment and its effects on electrical, electronic, and electromechanical parts. Relevant test standards and guidelines are listed. Test standards and guidelines are necessary to ensure best practices, minimize and bound systematic and random errors, and to ensure comparable results from different testers and vendors. Test standards are by their nature static but exist in a dynamic environment of advancing technology and radiation effects research. New technologies, failure mechanisms, and advancement in our understanding of known failure mechanisms drive the revision or development of test standards. Changes to standards must be weighed against their impact on cost and existing part qualifications. There must be consensus on new best practices. The complexity of some new technologies exceeds the scope of existing test standards and may require development of a guideline specific to the technology. Examples are given to illuminate the value and limitations of key radiation test standards as well as the challenges in keeping these standards up to date.

Test Standard↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the feasibility of monitoring carbon monoxide in the lower troposphere from a constellation of northern hemisphere geostationary satellites: Global scale assimilation experiments (Part II)

In this paper, we describe the second phase of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) that utilizes the synthetic measurements from a constellation of satellites measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary (GEO) Earth orbit presented in part I of the study. Our OSSE is focused on carbon monoxide observations over North America, East Asia and Europe where most of the anthropogenic sources are located. Here we assess the impact of a potential GEO constellation on constraining northern hemisphere (NH) carbon monoxide (CO) using data assimilation. We show how cloud cover affects the GEO constellation data density with the largest cloud cover (i.e., lowest data density) occurring during Asian summer. We compare the modeled state of the atmosphere (Control Run), before CO data assimilation, with the known “true” state of the atmosphere (Nature Run) and show that our setup provides realistic atmospheric CO fields and emission budgets. Overall, the Control Run underestimates CO concentrations in the northern hemisphere, especially in areas close to CO sources. Assimilation experiments show that constraining CO close to the main anthropogenic sources significantly reduces errors in NH CO compared to the Control Run. We assess the changes in error reduction when only single satellite instruments are available as compared to the full constellation. We find large differences in how measurements for each continental scale observation system affect the hemispherical improvement in long-range transport patterns, especially due to seasonal cloud cover. Finally, a GEO constellation will provide the most efficient constraint on NH CO during winter when CO lifetime is longer and increments from data assimilation associated with source regions are advected further around the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Enrichment Meter Dataset from High-Resolution Gamma Spectroscopy Measurements of U3O8 Enrichment Standards and UF6 Cylinder Wall Equivalents

The Enrichment Meter Principle (EMP) is the basis for a commonly used standard test method for the non-destructive assay of 235 U enrichment in bulk compounds [1]. The technique involves determining the net count rate in the direct 186 keV peak using medium or high energy gamma-ray spectrometry in a fixed geometry. With suitable correction for wall attenuation, compound type, rate loss (live time), and peaked background (if significant), the atom fraction of 235 U may be obtained from the counting rate from a linear relationship through the origin. The widespread use of this method for field verification of enrichment [2,3] together with the fact that the response function rests on fundamental physics considerations (i.e., is not represented by a convenient but arbitrary form) makes it an interesting example of uncertainty quantification, one in which one can expect a valid measurement model can be applied. When applied using NaI(Tl) and region of interest analysis, the technique is susceptible to both interference error and bias [2-4]. When implemented using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy, the spectrum interpretation is considerable simplified and more robust [5]. However, a practical challenge to studying the uncertainty budget of the EMP method (for example, to test linearity, extract wall corrections and so forth using modern methods) is the availability of quality experimental data that can be referenced and shared. To fill this gap, the research team undertook an experimental campaign [6]. A measurement campaign was conducted to produce high-resolution gamma spectroscopy enrichment meter data comparable to UF 6 cylinder measurements. The purpose of this report is to provide both an introduction to and quality assurance (QA) of the raw data produced. This report is intended for the analyst or researcher who uses the raw data. Unfortunately, the raw data (i.e., the spectra files) are too voluminous to include in this report but can be requested from Steven Croft of the Safeguards & Security Technology Group (scroft@ornl.gov 865-241-2834). The complete processed data are tabulated in Appendix A. The analysis techniques used to produce the QA data presented in this report [e.g., three regions-ofinterest (ROI) peak extraction and batch analysis processes] are not the most sophisticated techniques available; analysts are encouraged to reanalyze the raw data using more sensitive techniques and to improve upon the results presented here. With that being said, the analysis techniques used here are more than adequate to present and inspect the quality of the data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2008

Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites: Global Scale Assimilation Experiments (Part II)

This paper describes the second phase of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) that utilizes the synthetic measurements from a constellation of satellites measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary (GEO) Earth orbit presented in part I of the study. Our OSSE is focused on carbon monoxide observations over North America, East Asia and Europe where most of the anthropogenic sources are located. Here we assess the impact of a potential GEO constellation on constraining northern hemisphere (NH) carbon monoxide (CO) using data assimilation. We show how cloud cover affects the GEO constellation data density with the largest cloud cover (i.e., lowest data density) occurring during Asian summer. We compare the modeled state of the atmosphere (Control Run), before CO data assimilation, with the known 'true' state of the atmosphere (Nature Run) and show that our setup provides realistic atmospheric CO fields and emission budgets. Overall, the Control Run underestimates CO concentrations in the northern hemisphere, especially in areas close to CO sources. Assimilation experiments show that constraining CO close to the main anthropogenic sources significantly reduces errors in NH CO compared to the Control Run. We assess the changes in error reduction when only single satellite instruments are available as compared to the full constellation. We find large differences in how measurements for each continental scale observation system affect the hemispherical improvement in long-range transport patterns, especially due to seasonal cloud cover. A GEO constellation will provide the most efficient constraint on NH CO during winter when CO lifetime is longer and increments from data assimilation associated with source regions are advected further around the globe.

Geo Stationary Constellation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Simulation of a numerical filter for enhancing earth radiation budget measurements

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment has the objective to collect the radiation budget data which are needed to determine the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) on a regional scale. A second objective is to determine the accuracy of the results. Three satellites will carry wide and medium field of view radiometers which measure the longwave and shortwave components of radiation. Scanning radiometers will be included to detect small spatial features. A proposal has been made to employ for the nonscanning radiometers a one-dimensional numerical filter which reduces satellite measurements to TOA radiant excitances. The numerical filter was initially formulated by House (1980). It enhances the resolution of the radiation budget along the satellite groundtrack. The accuracy of the numerical filter estimate is studied by simulating the data gathering and measurement inversion process. The results of the study are discussed, taking into account two error sources.

Green, R. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support

The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support

Reliability↗

DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low‐level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Water Budget - Part 2

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weak updrafts, indicative of a dominance of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where. cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. In addition, artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting negative mixing ratios, produced as a result of numerical advection errors, to zero are described. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, Scott A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simulation budgeting for hybrid effective field theories

In this work, we forecast the number of, and requirements on, N-body simulations needed to train hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) emulators for a range of use cases, using a hybrid of HMcode and perturbation theory as a surrogate model. Our accuracy goals, determined with careful consideration of statistical and systematic uncertainties, are 1% accurate in the high-likelihood range of cosmological parameters, and 2% accurate over a broader parameter space volume for k < 1 h Mpc -1 and z < 3. Focusing in part on the 8-parameter w 0 w a CDM+ m ν cosmological model, we find that < 225 simulations are required to meet our error goals over our wide parameter space, including models with rapidly evolving dark energy, given our simulation and emulator recommendations. For a more restricted parameter space volume, as few as 80 simulations are sufficient. We additionally present simulation forecasts for example use cases, and make the code used in our analyses publicly available. These results offer practical guidance for efficient emulator design and simulation budgeting in future cosmological analyses.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Feasibility and Error Sources for Ocean Surface Salinity Measurements from Space

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

observations radio frequencies↗

NASA NTRS1994

Angular momentum exchange among the solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans: A case study of the 1982-1983 El Nino event

The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

Dickey, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Water Budget of a Simulated Hurricane

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. We examine artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15-20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Two phase sampling for wheat acreage estimation

A two-phase Landsat-based sample allocation and wheat proportion estimation method was developed. The technique employs manual, Landsat full frame-based wheat or cultivated land proportion estimates from a large number of segments comprising a first sample phase to optimally allocate a small phase-two sample of computer or manually processed segments. Proportion estimates from each phase are then linked by regression or probability proportional to estimated size estimators to provide wheat proportion estimates and standard errors by reporting unit. Application to the Kansas Southwest CRD (Crop Reporting District) for 1974 produced a wheat acreage estimate for that CRD within 2.42% of the USDA SRS-based estimate using a lower CRD inventory budget than for a simulated reference LACIE (Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment) system.

Thomas, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Aerocapture Performance Analysis of A Venus Exploration Mission

A performance analysis of a Discovery Class Venus Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft into a 300km polar orbit for a two year science mission has been conducted to quantify its performance. A preliminary performance assessment determined that a high heritage 70 sphere-cone rigid aeroshell with a 0.25 lift to drag ratio has adequate control authority to provide an entry flight path angle corridor large enough for the mission s aerocapture maneuver. A 114 kilograms per square meter ballistic coefficient reference vehicle was developed from the science requirements and the preliminary assessment s heating indicators and deceleration loads. Performance analyses were conducted for the reference vehicle and for sensitivity studies on vehicle ballistic coefficient and maximum bank rate. The performance analyses used a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to define the aerocapture heating environment and deceleration loads and to determine mission success statistics. The simulation utilized the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) that was modified to include Venus specific atmospheric and planet models, aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. In addition to Venus specific models, an autonomous guidance system, HYPAS, and a pseudo flight controller were incorporated in the simulation. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated a reference set of approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. The reference performance analysis determined the reference vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit with a 90 meters per second delta V budget for post aerocapture orbital adjustments. A ballistic coefficient trade study conducted with reference uncertainties determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture with a ballistic coefficient of 228 kilograms per square meter and that the increased ballistic coefficient increases post aerocapture V budget to 134 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit. A trade study on vehicle bank rate determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture when the maximum bank rate is decreased from 30 deg/s to 20 deg/s. The decreased bank rate increases post aerocapture delta V budget to 102 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit.

Starr, Brett R.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessment of errors and biases in retrievals of XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O from a 0.5 cm–1 resolution solar-viewing spectrometer

Abstract. Bruker™ EM27/SUN instruments are commercial mobile solar-viewing near-IR spectrometers. They show promise for expanding the global density of atmospheric column measurements of greenhouse gases and are being marketed for such applications. They have been shown to measure the same variations of atmospheric gases within a day as the high-resolution spectrometers of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). However, there is little known about the long-term precision and uncertainty budgets of EM27/SUN measurements. In this study, which includes a comparison of 186 measurement days spanning 11 months, we note that atmospheric variations of Xgas within a single day are well captured by these low-resolution instruments, but over several months, the measurements drift noticeably. We present comparisons between EM27/SUN instruments and the TCCON using GGG as the retrieval algorithm. In addition, we perform several tests to evaluate the robustness of the performance and determine the largest sources of errors from these spectrometers. We include comparisons of XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O. Specifically we note EM27/SUN biases for January 2015 of 0.03, 0.75, –0.12, and 2.43 % for XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O respectively, with 1σ running precisions of 0.08 and 0.06 % for XCO2 and XCH4 from measurements in Pasadena. We also identify significant error caused by nonlinear sensitivity when using an extended spectral range detector used to measure CO and N2O.

Hedelius, Jacob K. (ORCID:0000000320257519)↗