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At least 595 records · Page 33

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sitewide Environmental Impact Statement Site 300 and Arroyo Mocho Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Alameda and San Joaquin Counties, California (Mid-Term Report)

At the request of Lawrence Livermore National Security (LLNS), Nomad Ecology (Nomad) conducted sensitive botanical resource surveys, and vegetation mapping and classification of the 7,000-acre Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Experimental Test Site (Site 300) and 17 acres surrounding the Arroyo Mocho pumping station and the access road to the pumping station (Arroyo Mocho). In addition to surveying for sensitive botanical resources, Nomad also compiled existing rare plant and vegetation data provided by LLNL from past monitoring and environmental impact evaluations. The results of these efforts will provide supporting information for a Site-wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS). These surveys were conducted during the months of April – June, and August 2020. Rare plant surveys were scheduled for February and March 2020; however, February surveys were not initiated because the contract for this work was not finalized, and March surveys were cut short due to the timing of the Covid-19 shelter in place. February and March rare plant surveys are scheduled for 2021; therefore, the rare plant survey results in this report should be considered incomplete until the 2021 surveys are conducted. A total of 10 special status plant species were recorded within Site 300 and Arroyo Mocho. Of these 10, three were not previously recorded within the study areas, and include Hospital Canyon larkspur (Delphinium californicum subsp. interius), Jepson’s woolly sunflower (Eriophyllum jepsonii), and Michael’s rein orchid (Piperia michaelii), which all occur at Arroyo Mocho. Special status plant species known from these two sites total 23 rare plant occurrences (populations), which represent an estimated 50,929 rare plant individuals. This total of all special status plant species breaks down to one occurrence of a federally and/or state listed plant species (98 individuals), six occurrences of California Rare Plant Rank (CRPR) 1 & 2 species (49,010 individuals), and 16 occurrences of CRPR 3 & 4 species (1,821 individuals). A total of 35 vegetation communities were mapped at Site 300, of which 20 are considered Sensitive Natural Communities. A total of nine vegetation communities were mapped at Arroyo Mocho, of which two are considered Sensitive Natural Communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term ultrasonic monitoring of concrete affected by alkali-silica reaction

This article presents continuous monitoring results of alkali-silica reaction (ASR) development in concrete specimens for over 400 days using ultrasonic testing and expansion measurements. Eight concrete specimens with nonreactive aggregate (Control), reactive coarse aggregate, and reactive fine aggregates were cast with two reinforced confinement conditions. The specimens were conditioned in an environmental chamber with high temperature and humidity (38°C and 90% relative humidity) to accelerate the ASR development. A multichannel ultrasonic monitoring system was developed to collect ultrasonic signals automatically, and the expansions in three directions were measured periodically. Results showed that the relative velocity change could detect the ASR initiation in all reactive specimens and show a correlation with expansion in the early stage. However, these correlations are inconsistent for different ASR specimens, and the velocity change becomes less sensitive to ASR damage in the late stage (after 300 days). Irrecoverable velocity drop was observed during every chamber shutdown period, especially in specimens with higher levels of ASR damage. This phenomenon suggests that the nonlinear ultrasonic response caused by the ambient temperature variation may indicate the ASR damage.

Engineering↗

Innovative Strategies for Long-Term Monitoring of Complex Groundwater Plumes at DOE’s Legacy Sites (Workshop Report)

Most remaining Department of Energy (DOE) sites will require extended periods of institutional control, especially at complex groundwater sites where attenuation-based strategies have been implemented to facilitate closure. The current practice of monitoring—obtaining and analyzing contaminant concentration in groundwater samples at numerous wells—will account for a large portion of the projected life-cycle at these DOE sites unless a new approach is adopted. State-of-the-art technologies are being developed, including in situ sensors, geophysics, radiation mapping, numerical modeling and AI/ML. These technologies can optimize monitoring strategies in space and time, provide spatially extensive information at vulnerable regions and/or provide more continuous monitoring at lower cost. As part of DOE’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM’s) efforts to advance long-term monitoring systems, an in-person/virtual hybrid workshop was hosted by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) on January 24 and 25, 2023, in Augusta, Georgia. Because DOE-EM’s complex sites will eventually be transferred to DOE’s Office of Legacy Management (DOE-LM), representatives of DOE-LM were important participants in the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to identify challenges and opportunities for deploying advanced technologies for long-term monitoring at DOE sites. The key questions during the workshop were: 1) the regulatory acceptance of replacing a process that traditionally has used laboratory sampling and analysis of groundwater samples, and 2) the application of this strategy to the southwestern arid sites that include many of the remaining DOE-EM and DOE-LM complex groundwater plumes. Characteristics common to most arid sites present both limitations and opportunities for advanced technologies. DOE-EM has funded a National Laboratory team from SRNL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to establish the overarching framework of long-term monitoring by systematically combining advanced hardware and software technologies. This project is titled “Advanced Long-Term Environmental Monitoring Systems (ALTEMIS)” and is sponsored by the DOE-EM Technology Development Program. The multi-laboratory team is currently developing and testing innovative monitoring strategies, including the use of in situ groundwater sensors, geophysics, drone/satellite-based remote sensing, reactive transport modeling, and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML). The project’s demonstration testbed is at the Savannah River Site (SRS) F-Area Seepage Basins, where a well-characterized complex groundwater plume composed of uranium and other radionuclides is in the latter stages of remediation. The workshop included more than 70 participants, presentations, a field visit to F-Area, breakout working groups, and large group discussion. Participants developed recommendations on five topics: in situ sensors, spatially integrative tools, challenges to regulatory acceptance, AI/ML strategies, and transitioning sites to DOE-LM.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Concrete Testing Case for Closure of Handford’s 241-C Underground Storage Tanks

Sixty percent of the nation's highly toxic and radioactive mixed wastes are stored at Hanford in 177 deteriorating underground storage tanks. To close or remove these storage tanks from service and place them in a condition that is protective of human health and the environment, the tanks must be physically stabilized to prevent subsidence once wastes have been retrieved. Remaining residual liquid waste in the tanks that cannot be removed must be solidified and the solid wastes encapsulated to meet the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, and the State of Washington requirements. The Department of Energy has developed cementitious flowable concretes to restrict access and provide chemical stabilization for radionuclides. Formulation, laboratory, and field testing for application at Hanford began with flowable, self-leveling structural and non-structural fills. A slump flow equal to or greater than 610 mm, 0% bleed water, and 0.1% (by volume) shrinkage measurements were key parameters guiding reformulation efforts that resulted in highly flowable, self-consolidating concretes that met Hanford 241-C Tank closure short- and long-term regulatory and engineering performance requirements.

formula development↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2022

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiaġvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology across the site of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) experiment (2017-2021) during the growing season of 2022. Images were recorded from late spring (18 May) through to mid fall (25 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, at 10 minute intervals from 2022-07-01 until 2021-08-10, then hourly until the end of data collection on 2022-10-25. Images have been combined in *.tar.gz format (6 GB, 7367 jpg images). The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each month of operation (*.pdf).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2021. Images were captured from early spring (1 April) through to mid fall (22 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2021-07-09 images were recorded every 10 minutes until the end of data collection on 2021-10-22. Images have been combined in *.zip format (6.1 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2021-06-19 to 2021-09-22, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images from each camera have been combined in zip format. The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each camera (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modular, Mobile Systems for the Treatment of Contaminated Water at Three Magnox Sites in the United Kingdom - 20421

Veolia Nuclear Solutions (VNS), and its mitigated entity, Veolia Nuclear Solutions Federal Services (VNSFS), are designing, overseeing the fabrication and installation, and supporting the commissioning of highly mobile and modular skid-based water treatment systems to assist in the decommissioning of three Magnox reactor sites based in the U.K. These Modular Active Effluent Treatment Plants (MAETP) will be deployed at the Chapelcross, Hinkley Point A, and Dungeness A sites to process contaminated water through the use of ion exchange systems and/or filtration units. At the time of writing, two systems have been installed and inactively commissioned, and the third system is expected to be delivered in 2020. Veolia has utilized a multi-national team of engineers, based in the UK and the US, to effectively leverage the best of Veolia expertise in the design and delivery of mobile, modular systems. The VNS team continues to refine the modular, mobile, and scalable approach to water processing system delivery, and has successfully patented the evolving technology for proprietary protection. The intent of this technology investment is to improve the functionality, mobility, and modularity, resulting in a system which can be adapted to a broad range of throughput and isotope removal requirements to achieve the most cost effective, flexible system possible for customers. Designing, fabricating, and factory-testing the modules off site followed by onsite installation, testing, start-up, and commissioning ensures expedited delivery and setup, as well as cost savings for nuclear applications. For the MAETP systems, VNS's previous nuclear site experience and ongoing Research and Development (R and D), combined with the resulting mobile/modular water processing systems developed and successfully deployed by VNS, have proven to be important inputs for the successful end-design of the systems, materials selection, system testing and commissioning. The lessons learned in the development and continued enhancement of the patented systems described in this paper will prove useful in advancing and deploying future systems for other nuclear sites, where rapid customizing and cost-effective implementation are critical factors. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2019

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2019. Images were captured from early spring (4 April) through to mid fall (30 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2019-06-27 to 2019-10-02 images were recorded every 10 minutes, then at hourly intervals until the end of data collection on 2019-10-30. Files were renamed with the date and time of the image. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (5.6 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2019-06-23 to 2019-09-25, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images have been compressed in zip format for each camera and also presented as mp4 timelapse movies.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Acquisition and Implementation of a Comprehensive Environmental Permits Linking Tool at Savannah River Site - 20234

Historically, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions LLC (SRNS) tracked environmental regulatory commitments and the requirements from hundreds of permits at the Savannah River Site (SRS) using several separate methods, making integrated compliance assurance cumbersome and labor-intensive. When SRNS experienced an increase in environmental issues in 2017, SRNS management and U.S. Department of Energy - Savannah River (DOE-SR) management decided a single, proactive approach was needed to capture environmental permit information (including regulations, Consent Orders, DOE Orders, and any other state or federally issued statement of requirements), track the tasks necessary to ensure compliance with these requirements, and thereby mitigate the risk of noncompliance. SRNS developed a list of mandatory objectives that the tool must meet to function as a Comprehensive Environmental Permits Linking Tool (CEPLT). A key requirement was the ability to map Site permits to their governed locations and display the associated requirements at the compliance point (e.g., outfall, stack, waste unit, etc.). Several options included modifying existing onsite resources, building a custom onsite solution, purchasing an off-the-shelf solution, and contracting an offsite developer to build a custom solution. SRNS concluded an off-the-shelf solution with configuration and customization options would provide the flexibility to fit the unique needs of Savannah River Site (SRS) while taking advantage of industry-tested software and providing a reduced deployment timeline. SRNS chose Gensuite{sup R} a, a cloud-based solution that offers numerous a la carte applications in the environmental, health, and safety arenas, as the best candidate. SRNS selected three (3) integrated applications (Compliance Calendar, Permit Manager, and Mapper) to function as the CEPLT. The Compliance Calendar module allows for creation and tracking of regulatory commitment tasks assigned to responsible environmental professionals. Permit Manager organizes permits and other requirement documents, linking the commitments in each to Compliance Calendar tasks and/or implementing procedures. Mapper provides GIS capability for mapping the data from the other two modules to their physical onsite locations. The CEPLT was configured to allow for other SRS Site Tenants to eventually utilize the applications. Additionally, DOE-SR uses the CEPLT to provide an overview of contractor environmental compliance activities and to organize DOE-specific documents and tasks. The CEPLT fulfilled the requirement of meeting current compliance needs as well as providing the ability to grow as new organizations are incorporated and functionality is expanded. SRNS now uses the CEPLT to more effectively manage permit requirements, improve knowledge transfer, and increase the Site's overall protection of the environment, the Site worker, and the public. Possible future uses of the system include integration of mobile applications for timely communication of potential non-compliant conditions and DOE complex-wide deployment allowing for enhanced DOE site and Head Quarters oversight. Implementation of CEPLT will result in cost savings, both in terms of dollars and man-hours. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A panel analysis of groundwater use in California

We report groundwater is a relevant source of drinking and agricultural water in many regions of the world, but many aquifers have been unsustainably over-drafted and polluted. This has significant environmental, health, and economic implications. We rely on panel analysis, with small-sample corrections for cluster-robust variance estimation and hypothesis testing, to investigate the dynamics of groundwater extraction. We focus on California, yet our approach could be helpful to analyze the dynamics of groundwater extraction in other groundwater-reliant regions of the world. In California, over-reliance on groundwater has led to significant overdraft, affecting long-term water supply reliability and groundwater pumping costs. It further caused subsidence and infrastructure damage, harmed groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and threatened the sustainability of groundwater resources in the state. We use panel data of the 56 California Water Plan planning areas over the 1998–2015 period. We concentrate on agricultural and urban water use and the major water projects in the state, to provide a better understanding of the relationships between groundwater extraction and water use and supply. Results suggest that reducing agricultural water in Central California and urban water in Southern California could reduce groundwater extraction in these regions by approximately the same amount of the reduced water. Other opportunities to reduce the stress on the groundwater resources in the state are available for other regions, yet with lower benefits. Results also suggest that a decrease in deliveries from the Central Valley Project to the southern part of the Central Valley would increase groundwater extraction by approximately the same proportion. Changes in deliveries from the major water projects in the state, as well as from other sources of surface water, would also have some, yet lower impacts on groundwater extraction in the Central and Southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeographic patterns in populations of marine Pseudoalteromonas atlantica isolates

Intra-specific genomic diversity is well documented in microbes. The question, however, remains whether natural selection or neutral evolution is the major contributor to this diversity. We undertook this study to estimate genomic diversity in Pseudoalteromonas atlantica populations and whether the diversity, if present, could be attributed to environmental factors or distance effects. Here, we isolated and sequenced twenty-three strains of P. atlantica from three geographically distant deep marine basins and performed comparative genomic analyses to study the genomic diversity of populations among these basins. Average nucleotide identity followed a strictly geographical pattern. In two out of three locations, the strains within the location exhibited >99.5% identity, whereas, among locations, the strains showed <98.11% identity. Phylogenetic and pan-genome analysis also reflected the biogeographical separation of the strains. Strains from the same location shared many accessory genes and clustered closely on the phylogenetic tree. Phenotypic diversity between populations was studied in ten out of twenty-three strains testing carbon and nitrogen source utilization and osmotolerance. A genetic basis for phenotypic diversity could be established in most cases but was apparently not influenced by local environmental conditions. Our study suggests that neutral evolution may have a substantial role in the biodiversity of P. atlantica.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral Effects on the Energy Harvesting Efficiency of Two- and Four-Terminal Tandem Photovoltaics

In this work, the effect of a varying spectral irradiance and top cell bandgap on the energy harvesting efficiency of two-terminal (2T) and four-terminal (4T) perovskite//silicon tandem solar cells under outdoor operating conditions is investigated. For the comparison, an optoelectronic model employing a 1 year outdoor data set for a 4T mechanical stacked gallium arsenide (GaAs) on crystalline silicon (Si) tandem device is first validated. Then, the verified model is used to simulate perovskite//silicon tandem devices with a varying perovskite top cell bandgap for a location in Golden, Colorado, USA. Here, a spectral binning method to efficiently reduce and improve the visualization of the 1 min-resolved environmental data while maintaining the simulation accuracy is introduced. The findings reveal that, for a device that is current matched under standard testing conditions, the annual spectral deviation reduces the energy harvesting efficiency by only 2% rel . When additional realistic losses for the 4T are taken into account, 2T devices are shown to have an energy-harvesting efficiency that is at parity or higher. Deviations in the top cell bandgap are more than 0.1 eV from current matching result in a reduced energy harvesting efficiency of more than 5% rel for the 2T tandem device.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

Physics-informed hybrid modeling methodology for building infiltration

Infiltration is responsible for one-third to one-half of the space conditioning load of a typical residential home, but the modeling of infiltration for building energy modeling is either represented by over-simplified equations or dependent on over-generalized rules of thumb. Here, this paper develops a physics-informed data-driven methodology for modeling infiltration using building-specific empirical measurements. The developed hybrid methodology combines machine-learning categorization and grey-box sub-modeling to improve the accuracy and generalization of commonly used grey-box infiltration models. The developed methodology excels at predicting infiltration by improving the ability to predict infiltration under unseen environmental conditions using machine learning algorithms with physical significance. In a case study conducted using the iUnit, a modular studio apartment experimental test facility located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we use empirical airtightness measurements to fit an infiltration model using the developed methodology. We find that the developed methodology can improve the overall model accuracy by 43% and improve extrapolation by 38%, compared with the model based on the common grey-box infiltration equation. We also notice that the selected features can improve the performance of a pure machine-learning model, indicating that our methodology identifies the features with the most physical significance to infiltration modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of methods for characterizing the fine particulate matter emissions from aircraft and other diffusion flame combustion aerosol sources

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency in collaboration with the U. S. Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex conducted the VAriable Response In Aircraft nvPM Testing (VARIAnT) 3 and 4 test campaigns to compare nvPM emissions measurements from a variety of diffusion flame combustion aerosol sources (DFCASs), including a Cummins diesel engine, a diesel powered generator, two gas turbine start carts, a J85-GE-5 turbojet engine burning multiple fuels, and a Mini-CAST soot generator. The VARIAnT research program has conducted four test campaigns to date with the VARIAnT 3 and 4 test campaigns focusing on BC mass instrument performance, use of gas turbine engine sources for BC mass instrument calibration, and the characterization of the aerosols produced from the combustion sources. Results from both campaigns revealed agreement of about 20% between the AVL Micro-Soot Sensor, the Cavity Attenuated Phase Shift (CAPS PMSSA) monitor and the thermal-optical reference method for elemental carbon (EC), independent of the calibration source used. For the Artium LII-300, the measured mass concentrations in VARIAnT3 fall within 18% and in VARIAnT4 fall within 32% of the reference EC mass concentration when calibrated on a combustor rig in VARIAnT3 and on a LGT-60 start cart in VARIAnT4, respectively. It was also found that the three mass instrument types (MSS, CAPS PMSSA, and LII-300) can exhibit different BC to reference EC ratios depending on the emission source that appear to correlate to particle geometric mean mobility diameter, morphology, or some other parameter associated with particle geometric mean diameter (GMD) with the LII-300 showing a slightly stronger apparent trend with GMD. Systematic differences in LII-300 measured mass concentrations have been reduced by calibrating with a turbine combustion source (combustor or turbine engine). With respect to the particle size measurements made, the sizing instruments (TSI SMPS, TSI EEPS, and Cambustion DMS 500) were found to be in general agreement in terms of size distributions and concentrations with some exceptions. Teflon filter measurements of the total aerosol mass produced by the various DFCASs differed from the reference EC, BC, and integrated particle sized distribution measured aerosol masses. The Teflon filter measured mass was 30 to 40% greater than the reference EC and 50 to 60% greater than the BC mass for the J85 in both test campaigns. The measurements of particle size distributions and single particle analysis by miniSPLAT indicated the presence of large particles (>100 nm) having more compact morphologies, higher effective density, and a composition dominated by OC and ash. This increased large particle fraction is also associated with higher values of single scattering albedo measured by the CAPS PMSSA instrument and higher OC/EC measurements. These measurements indicate gas turbine engine emissions can be a more heterogeneous mix of particle types beyond the original E31 assumption that it is mainly composed of black carbon.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Geochemistry, RNA radiocarbon signature, and metatranscriptome data from Rifle, Colorado groundwater well

Understanding the different sources of carbon subsurface microbes use is highly informative yet remains challenging. The goal of this work was to develop and test a cultivation-independent method that analyzes both the radiocarbon and ribosomal RNA (rRNA) signature of unamplified RNA from the same environmental sample, and that collectively characterizes community carbon utilization under in situ conditions. The method was applied to a filtered groundwater sample from a geochemically reduced zone of a shallow alluvial aquifer near Rife, Colorado (CO), where multiple potential carbon sources co-occur. The radiocarbon and RNA-Seq results, while addressing diverse sample properties, indicated a strikingly similar conclusion about the quantitative role of autotrophy in the subsurface microbial community.This data package provides (1) ribosomal RNA (rRNA) sequences for groundwater microbial populations, (2) the taxonomic identity and relative abundance of groundwater microbial populations based on these rRNA sequences, (3) radiocarbon signatures of the rRNA indicating the source of carbon used by the groundwater microbial populations (provided in both Word docx file and pdf file), (4) geochemical measurements for the monitoring well corresponding to these measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗