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At least 595 records · Page 33

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell’s power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs)↗

Multiple Metrics Informed Projections of Future Precipitation in China

Predicting how regional precipitation will respond to future warming is among the most challenging undertaking in climate change projection. Despite sustained efforts to improve modeling and understanding of precipitation, the overall uncertainty in projecting regional precipitation has not been reduced substantially. In this work, the potential for more robust precipitation projections is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metrics to subsample the multimodel ensemble. Using a two-dimensional metric of precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation indices in East Asia, 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected statistically significant increasing trends in precipitation and the regional precipitation patterns are more similar to each other than to the patterns in the bottom performing group. In contrast, models in the bottom performing group projected diverse responses, with overall small drying or no significant trends in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of advanced machine learning models for analysis of plutonium surrogate optical emission spectra

This work investigates and applies machine learning paradigms seldom seen in analytical spectroscopy for quantification of gallium in cerium matrices via processing of laser-plasma spectra. Ensemble regressions, support vector machine regressions, Gaussian kernel regressions, and artificial neural network techniques are trained and tested on cerium-gallium pellet spectra. A thorough hyperparameter optimization experiment is conducted initially to determine the best design features for each model. The optimized models are evaluated for sensitivity and precision using the limit of detection (LoD) and root mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP) metrics, respectively. Gaussian kernel regression yields the superlative predictive model with an RMSEP of 0.33% and an LoD of 0.015% for quantification of Ga in a Ce matrix. This study concludes that these machine learning methods could yield robust prediction models for rapid quality control analysis of plutonium alloys.

Rao, Ashwin P. (ORCID:0000000319312568)↗

Open-closed 3d gravity as a random ensemble

We investigate an ensemble of boundary CFTs within the framework of a tensor model recently constructed to model 3d quantum gravity. The incorporation of CFT borders introduces new elements to the gravity theory. In particular, it leads to an open-closed extension of Virasoro TQFT, which in the classical limit gives rise to 3d gravity with tensionful end-of-the-world branes. It also provides predictions for off-shell manifolds with bordered asymptotic boundaries, such as the annulus wormhole. As an application, we construct a purely open variant of the tensor model to study a purely open bootstrap problem in the context of CFT triangulation. We also briefly discuss the extension to non-orientable CFTs.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

Understanding and control of Zener pinning via phase field and ensemble learning

Zener pinning refers to the dispersion of fine particles which influences grain size distribution via movement of grain boundaries in a polycrystalline material. Grain size distribution in polycrystals has a significant impact on their properties including physical, chemical, mechanical, and optical to name a few. We explore the use of Phase-field modeling and machine-learning techniques to understand and improve the control of grain size distribution via Zener pinning in polycrystalline materials. We develop a machine learning model that determines the relative importance of various parameters to exercise microstructure control via Zener pinning. Our workflow combines high-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning to address the computational bottlenecks associated with large-scale simulations as well as identify features necessary for microstructure control in polycrystals. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed to predict grain sizes based on five Phase-field model parameters, achieving an average prediction error of 0.72 nm for the training data and 1.44 nm for the test data. The importance of the input parameters is analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach which reveals that diffusivity, volume fraction, and particle diameter are the most important parameters in determining the final grain size. These findings will allow us to select the best second-phase particles, optimize grain size distributions and thus design microstructures with the desired properties. The developed method is a highly versatile and generalizable approach that can be used to assess the combined effects of individual features in the presence of multiple variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating Deception Detection Model Robustness To Linguistic Variation

With the increasing use of automated, machine learning-driven tools and the downstream impact that algorithmic judgements can have, it is critical to develop models that are robust to evolving or manipulated inputs. Evaluating the reliability of multimodal models across linguistic variations to understand model susceptibility to intentional linguistic adversarial attacks as well as natural linguistic variations is essential in this pursuit. We present extensive analysis of model robustness and susceptibility to linguistic variations in the setting of deceptive news detection, a difficult classification task that is an increasingly important problem to solve with the impact of misinformation spread online. We evaluate the effectiveness of incorporating adversarial defense strategies and measure model susceptibility to state-of-the-art adversarial attacks using two types of linguistic attacks — character and word perturbations. We consider two multiclass prediction tasks — a 3-way classification of tweets as trustworthy, propaganda, or disinformation; and a 4-way classification as clickbait, hoax, satire, or conspiracy — and compare the performance of three embeddings that have been state-of-the-art for several NLP tasks — GloVe, ELMo, and BERT — to highlight consistent trends in susceptibility, high confidence misclassifications, and high impact failures. We find that character or mixed ensemble models are the most effective defense mechanisms and that character perturbations are a more effective attack than word perturbations for deception classification.

adversarial evaluation↗

Elucidating and contrasting the mechanisms for Mg and Ca sulfate ion-pair formation with multi-level embedded quantum mechanics/molecular dynamics simulations

Here, solutions and minerals containing sulfate (SO 4 2- ), and Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ cations, are ubiquitous throughout the lithosphere and are significant components of seawater, thus presenting a prototypical system for the study of strong electrolytes and crystal nucleation mechanisms. However, despite their relative abundance, key questions remain unanswered about the most fundamental atomic-level steps of their mineralization pathways and aqueous dynamics. Here, we carry out enhanced sampling multi-level molecular dynamics (MD) embedded correlated wavefunction theory simulations to elucidate ion-pairing mechanisms for Mg–SO 4 and Ca–SO 4 in concentrated aqueous solution, accurately capturing effects arising from both structural dynamics and electron exchange–correlation. We predict contact-ion-pair formation to be barrierless and highly exoergic for Ca–SO 4 , in agreement with its minimal solubility, whereas for Mg–SO 4 , solvent-shared and contact ion pairs have similar free energies, qualitatively consistent with its higher solubility. Finally, we demonstrate that brief high-temperature pre-equilibration may be utilized to accelerate convergence of free energies in blue-moon-ensemble enhanced-sampling MD.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Timing of pulsars in the globular cluster omega centauri

We present the timing of the first five millisecond pulsars discovered in the globular cluster Omega Centauri and the discovery of a pulsar with a spin period of 3.68 ms. With a timing baseline of ~3.5 yr we are able to measure the derivative of the spin frequency ($\dot{\nu }$) for the first five pulsars. Upper limits on the pulsar line-of-sight acceleration are estimated and compared with predictions based on analytical models of the cluster. We find that PSRs J1326-4728B and D show large negative accelerations, which are in tension with the minimum acceleration predicted by analytical models. We searched for pulsed γ-ray signals using 14.3 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. Although we found no evidence for γ-ray pulsations, PSRs J1326-4728A, B, C, and E are associated with X-ray sources. This suggests that the observed γ-ray emission from Omega Centauri is likely caused by the emission of the ensemble of MSPs. Finally, the linearly polarized emission from PSR J1326-4728A yields a rotation measure of -18 ± 8 rad m -2 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Automated calculation and convergence of defect transport tensors

Defect diffusion is a key process in materials science and catalysis, but as migration mechanisms are often too complex to enumerate a priori, calculation of transport tensors typically have no measure of convergence and require significant end-user intervention. These two bottlenecks prevent high-throughput implementations essential to propagate model-form uncertainty from interatomic interactions to predictive simulations. In order to address these issues, we extend a massively parallel accelerated sampling scheme, autonomously controlled by Bayesian estimators of statewide sampling completeness, to build atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo models on a state-space irreducible under exchange and space group symmetries. Focusing on isolated defects, we derive analytic expressions for drift and diffusion coefficients, providing a convergence metric by calculating the Kullback–Leibler divergence across the ensemble of diffusion processes consistent with the sampling uncertainty. The autonomy and efficacy of the method is demonstrated on surface trimers in tungsten and Hexa-interstitials in magnesium oxide, both of which exhibit complex, correlated migration mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: A 2.7% measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation distance scale at redshift 0.835

We present angular diameter measurements obtained by measuring the position of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in an optimized sample of galaxies from the first three years of Dark Energy Survey data (DES Y3). The sample consists of 7 million galaxies distributed over a footprint of 4100 deg 2 with 0.6 < z photo < 1.1 and a typical redshift uncertainty of 0.03 ( 1 + z ) . The sample selection is the same as in the BAO measurement with the first year of DES data, but the analysis presented here uses three times the area, extends to higher redshift, and makes a number of improvements, including a fully analytical BAO template, the use of covariances from both theory and simulations, and an extensive preunblinding protocol. We used two different statistics; angular correlation function and power spectrum, and validate our pipeline with an ensemble of over 1500 realistic simulations. Both statistics yield compatible results. We combine the likelihoods derived from angular correlations and spherical harmonics to constrain the ratio of comoving angular diameter distance D M at the effective redshift of our sample to the sound horizon scale at the drag epoch. We obtain D M ( z eff = 0.835 ) / r d = 18.92 ± 0.51 , which is consistent with, but smaller than, the Planck prediction assuming flat Λ CDM , at the level of 2.3 σ . The analysis was performed blind and is robust to changes in a number of analysis choices. It represents the most precise BAO distance measurement from imaging data to date, and is competitive with the latest transverse ones from spectroscopic samples at z > 0.75 . When combined with DES 3 x 2 pt + SNIa , they lead to improvements in H 0 and Ω m constraints by ∼ 20 % .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Active Learning A Neural Network Model For Gold Clusters & Bulk From Sparse First Principles Training Data

Small metal clusters are of fundamental scientific interest and of tremendous significance in catalysis. These nanoscale clusters display diverse geometries and structural motifs depending on the cluster size; a knowledge of this size-dependent structural motifs and their dynamical evolution has been of longstanding interest. Given the high computational cost of first-principles calculations, molecular modeling and atomistic simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) has proven to be an important complementary tool to aid this understanding. Classical MD typically employ predefined functional forms which limits their ability to capture such complex size-dependent structural and dynamical transformation. Neural Network (NN) based potentials represent flexible alternatives and in principle, well-trained NN potentials can provide high level of flexibility, transferability and accuracy on-par with the reference model used for training. A major challenge, however, is that NN models are interpolative and requires large quantities (similar to 10 4 or greater) of training data to ensure that the model adequately samples the energy landscape both near and far-from-equilibrium. A highly desirable goal is minimize the number of training data, especially if the underlying reference model is first-principles based and hence expensive. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) scheme that trains a NN model on-the-fly with minimal amount of first-principles based training data. Our AL workflow is initiated with a sparse training dataset (similar to 1 to 5 data points) and is updated on-the-fly via a Nested Ensemble Monte Carlo scheme that iteratively queries the energy landscape in regions of failure and updates the training pool to improve the network performance. Using a representative system of gold clusters, we demonstrate that our AL workflow can train a NN with similar to 500 total reference calculations. Using an extensive DFT test set of similar to 1100 configurations, we show that our AL-NN is able to accurately predict both the DFT energies and the forces for clusters of a myriad of different sizes. Our NN predictions are within 30 meV/atom and 40 meV/angstrom of the reference DFT calculations. Moreover, our AL-NN model also adequately captures the various size-dependent structural and dynamical properties of gold clusters in excellent agreement with DFT calculations and available experiments. We finally show that our AL-NN model also captures bulk properties reasonably well, even though they were not included in the training data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhancing Extreme Precipitation Predictions With Dynamical Downscaling: A Convection‐Permitting Modeling Study in Texas and Oklahoma

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble‐based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection‐permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection‐permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high‐resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Interface Coating Design for Dynamic Voltage Stability of Solid‐State Batteries

Abstract Intrinsic or interface thermodynamic voltage windows of solid electrolytes are often narrower than the operational voltage range needed by a full battery, thus various interface decomposition reactions can happen in a practical solid‐state battery. Experimentally, it is found that a proper battery design utilizing the reactions can lead to a dynamic evolution from interface instability to stability, giving the so‐called dynamic voltage stability for advanced battery performance. Here, first the state‐of‐the‐art understanding is articulated about how the dynamic voltage stability should be interpreted in physical picture and treated in computation, emphasizing the potential importance of nonequilibrium reaction pathways. The constrained ensemble computational approach is further applied across most types of solid‐state electrolytes to systematically evaluate and compare their dynamic stability voltage windows in response to the mechanical constriction effect. High‐throughput calculations are used to search for coating materials for different interfaces between sulfide, halide, and oxide electrolytes and typical cathode materials with enhanced dynamic voltage stability. A comparison with experiment is given to highlight the value of these computational predictions.

Wang, Yichao↗

Defect Thermodynamics and Transport Properties of Proton Conducting Oxide BaZr 1–x Y x O 3–δ (x ≤ 0.1) Guided by Density Functional Theory Modeling

Density functional theory-based thermodynamic modeling was performed to determine the effect of humidity and H 2 /O 2 gas pressure on the defect chemistry and transport properties of proton conducting oxide BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ (x ≤ 0.1) in the temperature range of 800–1200K, relevant for solid oxide fuel/electrolysis cell applications. The first-principles charge defect analysis was carried out to obtain the defect energetic ensembles as a function of Fermi level as well as the dependence of the hydration and oxidation reaction energies on complex defect-dopant configurations. It is shown that oxygen vacancies introduced to compensate for the extra Ba vacancies may cause a slight increase in the concentration of hydroxyl and proton species upon hydration of Ba deficient BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ , while the overall proton diffusivity is predicted to decrease with increased proton hopping barriers upon trapping near the Ba vacancies. The developed defect model is further demonstrated to be able to describe the bulk defect chemistry and transport properties of BaZr 0.9 Y 0.1 O 3-δ under the solid oxide cell operating conditions. Finally, the theoretical framework developed in this work further allows the inclusion of configurational, energetic and electronic characteristics of the defects that can be used as a complementary tool to experimental measurements for testing various mechanistic pathways or to provide essential mechanistic data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding Differences in Water Adsorption Isotherms: Structural Variations, Force Fields, and Monte Carlo Simulation Approaches

Accurate prediction of water adsorption in micro- and mesoporous materials with hydrophobic pores is essential for the design and characterization of advanced adsorbent materials for separation and energy applications. Here, we assess the reproducibility and consistency of water adsorption isotherms in two microporous all-silica MFI zeolite structures (MFI-K and MFI-O) using two different zeolite force fields and three simulation approaches: grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC), Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC), and transition matrix Monte Carlo (TMMC). We demonstrate that consistent treatment of the bulk fluid phase in GCMC and TMMC simulations is critical for reconciling isotherms across methods, and we construct simulation-based equations of state for the TIP4P water model to enable rigorous fugacity-to-pressure conversions. Large shifts in the isotherms are observed for two zeolite force fields developed using different parametrization strategies, with the GCS force field representing implicitly a defect-containing all-silica zeolite, whereas the TraPPE-zeo force field accurately represents an essentially defect-free all-silica zeolite. While water in the van Koningsveld structure of MFI exhibits a first-order phase transition and condensation-like step for adsorption near room temperature, water in the Olson structure of MFI displays continuous adsorption, attributed to differences in the adsorption free energy landscapes. Structural analysis reveals that small geometric variations, particularly Si–O–Si bond angles near the strongest adsorption sites, lead to these substantial differences in adsorption behavior. Furthermore, our results highlight the sensitivity of simulated water adsorption isotherms in hydrophobic frameworks to seemingly small differences in the framework structures, force field parametrization, and simulation approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗