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At least 595 records · Page 33

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sound at Scale: Characterizing Impacts of Noise Ordinances on the Onshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the United States

Recent surveys have documented the rapid rise of sound ordinances across state and county jurisdictions, which has become crucial for wind energy siting. However, the lack of information on ordinances and computational challenges in turbine sound modeling create uncertainties regarding how evolving policies may affect resource potential and clean energy objectives. Therefore, we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles at millions of locations across the U.S. and translate them into setback distances for every residential structure. Compared to a baseline reference scenario, we find a 7% reduction in the national wind energy capacity potential when accounting for counties with existing sound ordinances. Additionally, when expanding the surveyed sound ordinances nationwide, we observe a potential loss of 53% of the national wind capacity under the most stringent ordinances, with a disproportionate share of this lost capacity coming from high-quality and low-cost wind resource. This work reveals that neglecting sound ordinances results in a significant overestimation of wind resource potential and highlights the important trade-offs between increased wind energy deployment to meet target decarbonization goals and the social/environmental impacts of this deployment that must be considered.

aeroacoustics↗

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Minimization of Measurement Uncertainty in Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating optical fiber sensors to generate relative, quasi-distributed measurements. Although Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is increasingly being adopted for aerospace, energy production, and structural monitoring applications, the quantification of uncertainty for OFDR measurements has not been developed beyond sparse empirical relationships. To address this knowledge gap, an uncertainty metric for OFDR measurements was developed. This uncertainty metric was applied to weight the edges between OFDR measurements on directed correlation graphs and analyzed to minimize the cumulative uncertainty. In conclusion, this work is the first to propose an uncertainty metric for OFDR and provides a generalized mathematical framework for optimizing OFDR hardware selection, optical fiber sensor selection, and postprocessing strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

Self-Calibration and Laser Energy Monitor Validations for a Double-Pulsed 2-Micron CO2 Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar Application

Double-pulsed 2-micron integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar is well suited for atmospheric CO2 remote sensing. The IPDA lidar technique relies on wavelength differentiation between strong and weak absorbing features of the gas normalized to the transmitted energy. In the double-pulse case, each shot of the transmitter produces two successive laser pulses separated by a short interval. Calibration of the transmitted pulse energies is required for accurate CO2 measurement. Design and calibration of a 2-micron double-pulse laser energy monitor is presented. The design is based on an InGaAs pin quantum detector. A high-speed photo-electromagnetic quantum detector was used for laser-pulse profile verification. Both quantum detectors were calibrated using a reference pyroelectric thermal detector. Calibration included comparing the three detection technologies in the single-pulsed mode, then comparing the quantum detectors in the double-pulsed mode. In addition, a self-calibration feature of the 2-micron IPDA lidar is presented. This feature allows one to monitor the transmitted laser energy, through residual scattering, with a single detection channel. This reduces the CO2 measurement uncertainty. IPDA lidar ground validation for CO2 measurement is presented for both calibrated energy monitor and self-calibration options. The calibrated energy monitor resulted in a lower CO2 measurement bias, while self-calibration resulted in a better CO2 temporal profiling when compared to the in situ sensor.

Refaat, Tamer F.↗

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Distribution of the Spectral Response of Cells in Silicon Modules - Mechanisms and Implications

Measurements of the spectral response of cells in a PV module can provide important insight into the physics of the device and are also needed for the accurate calibration of the performance of these devices using solar simulators. While techniques for measuring the spectral response of PV cells are well established, measurement of the spectral response of all cells in a module is not straightforward since in this case one has electrical access to a string of cells and not to cells individually. Here we present a new approach for testing the spectral response of individual cells in silicon modules that allows for the fast mapping of the response at different locations of the module. We show that in some cases the spectral response of different cells in a module can vary considerably and propose an underlying mechanism for this variation. We also discuss the implications of this observation for the uncertainty of the spectral correction and of the I SC calibration using a solar simulator.

modules↗

OT Operational Anomaly Detection (OAD) T&D + DER

The growth of utility-scale renewable energy resources, distributed energy resources (DER), and transportation electrification has increased uncertainty and cybersecurity risks in power grids. The Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture model which is widely adopted by the utility industry is now insufficient to protect the power grid against cyber-attacks. There is a need to identify what cybersecurity model is effective on Energy Management System (EMS), Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS), and DER Management System (DERMS) to address the fundamental cybersecurity challenges in the age of increasing renewable energy and DER share as well as consumer participation in the electric energy industry. The next generation of cybersecurity model for OT network should be able to detect inside attackers, mitigate the cybersecurity risks arising from the new grid participants including DER aggregators, electric vehicle owners, and behind-the-meter consumers outside the utility company, and develop the strategy to trust consumer measurement data. This panel will discuss the challenges and pathways for the development of an ensemble cybersecurity model based on predictive state estimation to detect cybersecurity anomalies in OT network including EMS, ADMS, and DERMS.

cybersecurity↗

Measurements of jet cross-section ratios in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions with ATLAS

Measurements of jet cross-section ratios between inclusive bins of jet multiplicity are performed in 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions with √s = 13 TeV center-of-mass energy, recorded with the ATLAS detector at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. These ratios are constructed from double-differential cross-section measurements that are made in bins of jet multiplicity and other observables that are sensitive the energy scale and angular distribution of radiation due to the strong interaction in the final state. Additionally, the scalar sum of the two leading jets’ transverse momenta is measured triple differentially, in bins of the third jet’s transverse momentum and of jet multiplicity. These measurements are unfolded to account for acceptance and detector-related effects. The measured distributions are used to construct ratios of the inclusive jet-multiplicity bins, which have been shown to be sensitive to the strong coupling Formula Presented while being less sensitive than other observables to systematic uncertainties and parton distribution functions. The measured distributions are compared with state-of-the-art QCD calculations, including next-to-next-to-leading-order predictions for two- and three-jet events. These predictions are generally found to model the data well and perform best in bins with a modest requirement on the third jet’s transverse momentum. Significant differences between data and Monte Carlo predictions are observed in events with large rapidity gaps and invariant masses of the leading jet pair. Studies leading to reduced jet energy scale uncertainties significantly improve the precision of this work and are documented herein.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

GENESIS: Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering

Improved neutron inelastic scattering cross section data are needed to inform integral benchmark studies and advance applications in a wide variety of areas including nuclear energy, stockpile stewardship, nonproliferation, and space exploration. Neutron inelastic scattering also serves as a non-selective probe of low-lying nuclear structure. To help meet these needs, the Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) was constructed at the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This array couples high-resolution γ-ray detectors and fast neutron detectors to achieve single and coincident n/γ detection over a broad energy range. The current configuration of the array includes 26 organic liquid scintillators and four high-purity germanium detectors (two single-crystal and two four-crystal CLOVER detectors with two-fold segmentation). The array was constructed with minimal supporting material and designed to cover a wide range of secondary particle angles and energies with limited inter-element scattering. Data acquisition is accomplished using Mesytec MDPP-16 multi-channel high-resolution digital pulse processing modules. The array characteristics, including γ-ray and neutron energy resolution, timing resolution, and detection efficiency were measured and used to validate a Geant4 model of the array. Furthermore, the primary sources of neutron background and the uncertainties in the determination of incident and secondary neutron energy were assessed. GENESIS provides a new capability to address nuclear data needs and facilitates the advancement of a wide range of nuclear applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Status of the WPEC subgroup 46 - Efficient and effective use of integral experiments for nuclear data validation

The present paper summarizes the current status of the activities of the on-going WPEC subgroup 46 which was the last significant initiative of Massimo before he passed away. The goal of WPEC/SG46 is to define, test and document a methodology to provide unambiguous feedback to the nuclear data evaluator community, based on the joint use of integral experiments and data assimilation techniques. Part of this effort resulted in a renewed analysis of the original Target Accuracy Requirement (TAR) exercise of WPEC/SG26, by adding more diverse nuclear systems and parameters, including reaction channels correlations and a coarser energy group structure; and making use of the progress made in the most recent evaluations in terms of both nuclear data and covariance matrices. The preliminary outcomes of the updated TAR exercise, documented by various groups worldwide are clear already: uncertainty reductions are required for many nuclide-reaction pairs in a variety of energy range if the target uncertainty requirements set by the industry are to be met, especially for k{sub eff}. The inclusion of correlations between the various reaction channels had a major impact on the magnitude of the required uncertainty reduction. Those uncertainty reductions are unlikely to be met by differential measurements alone. However, the selection of relevant integral experiment and a subsequent adjustment procedure may help meet these requirements. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Glass Design Using Machine Learning Property Models with Prediction Uncertainties: Nuclear Waste Glass Formulation

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing the legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. The waste will be separately vitrified as low-activity waste and high-level waste fractions. Waste glass formulation algorithms have been traditionally developed using partial quadratic mixture property-composition models. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to predict glass properties and discover new glass materials for nuclear waste vitrification, and these advancements can be utilized to improve waste glass composition design. In this proof-of-principle study, ML algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used to interpolate glass properties (e.g., viscosity, electrical conductivity, chemical durability). After selecting appropriate sets of GPR hyper-parameters for each property, an optimization program was developed to formulate glass compositions to maximize waste loading while simultaneously satisfying property within constraints. The results of the ML-based waste loadings and glass compositions were compared to those obtained using the traditional methods. Comparing to the previous glass design framework, the ML-based optimization methods offer improved glass designs and a streamlined approach to generation of optimally designed data and near real-time updates.

glass formulation, machine learning, constraints, ↗

Center-of-Mass Corrections in Associated Particle Imaging

Associated particle imaging (API) utilizes the inelastic scattering of neutrons produced in deuterium-tritium (DT) fusion reactions to obtain 3-D isotopic distributions within an object. The locations of the inelastic scattering centers are calculated by measuring the arrival time and position of the associated alpha particle produced in the fusion reactions, and the arrival time of the prompt gamma created in the neutron scattering event. While the neutron and its associated particle move in opposite directions in the center-of-mass (COM) system, in the laboratory system the angle is slightly less than 180°, and the COM movement must be taken into account in the reconstruction of the scattering location. Furthermore, the fusion reactions are produced by ions of different momenta, and thus the COM velocity varies, resulting in an uncertainty in the reconstructed positions. In this article, we analyze the COM corrections to this reconstruction by simulating the energy loss of beam ions in the target material and identifying sources of uncertainty in these corrections. Here we show that an average COM velocity calculated using the ion beam direction and energy can be used in the reconstruction and discuss errors as a function of ion beam energy, composition, and alpha detection location. When accounting for the COM effect, the mean of the reconstructed locations can be considered a correctable systematic error leading to a shift/tilt in the reconstruction. However, the distribution of reconstructed locations also have a spread that will introduce an error in the reconstruction that cannot be corrected. In this article, we will use the known stopping powers of ions in materials and reaction cross sections to examine the reconstruction uncertainties. We also discuss the impact of this effect on our API system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advancing environmental assessment of the circular economy: Challenges and opportunities

The lifecycle assessment (LCA) framework is widely applied to comprehensively evaluate and improve the environmental performance of a circular economy (CE). The advances and application of LCA has been primarily restricted to evaluate the environmental performance of the CE at a micro-level, wherein the CE is implemented for a single product system. However, the CE can be operationalized at two broader levels: the meso–level (for eco-industrial parks) and the macro-level (for a city, state, or nation). Six methodological challenges emerge when applying LCA to a meso- or macro-level CE and remain unaddressed in the existing literature. This includes: selecting a relevant system boundary and functional unit, addressing data paucity and uncertainty, accounting for stakeholder behavior, assessing the trade-offs from renewable energy (RE) use, accounting for manufacturing and technology evolution, and quantifying displacement and rebound. This article proposes potential solutions and research priorities to address the above challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Sim Model

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. Project is part of the TEAMER (Testing & Expertise for Marine Energy) RFTS (request for technical support) system of WEC research projects. Testing data can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗