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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Climate change drives convergent evolution of root traits on Sky Island climate relicts

Roots are essential to the strategies plants use to survive in variable environments, yet we know little of how they vary within species. Experimental conditions demonstrate that intraspecific plant root traits respond strongly to variation in the environment; however, it is unclear when these responses can be characterized as evolution in response to selective pressures of climate change over many generations. Sky Islands are model, natural climate relict ecosystems to examine climate-change driven evolution. Utilizing a common garden with replicate genotypes of Populus angustifolia (Narrowleaf cottonwood) from six Sky Island (SI) populations and nine adjacent Mountain Chain (MC) populations across three genetic provenances, we hypothesized that SI root traits have diverged due to historical isolation in warmer, drier climates. When grown in common conditions, populations originating on SI’s showed convergent evolution across three distinct genetic provenances, which was characterized by 44.16% decreased total root length, 42.64% decreased average root volume, 43.31% decreased root surface area, and significantly less root trait variation, relative to adjacent mountain chains. Convergent evolution of root traits from trees originating on SI’s is correlated with changes in mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the field over the past ~ 125 years. These results demonstrate a consistent pattern in root trait evolution at the landscape scale and the role of climate on the evolution of root traits in a genetic and geographic context relevant to climate change.

Convergent evolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial functional diversity across biogeochemical provinces in the central Pacific Ocean

Enzymes catalyze key reactions within Earth’s life-sustaining biogeochemical cycles. Here, we use metaproteomics to examine the enzymatic capabilities of the microbial community (0.2 to 3 µm) along a 5,000-km-long, 1-km-deep transect in the central Pacific Ocean. Eighty-five percent of total protein abundance was of bacterial origin, with Archaea contributing 1.6%. Over 2,000 functional KEGG Ontology (KO) groups were identified, yet only 25 KO groups contributed over half of the protein abundance, simultaneously indicating abundant key functions and a long tail of diverse functions. Vertical attenuation of individual proteins displayed stratification of nutrient transport, carbon utilization, and environmental stress. The microbial community also varied along horizontal scales, shaped by environmental features specific to the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, the oxygen-depleted Eastern Tropical North Pacific, and nutrient-rich equatorial upwelling. Some of the most abundant proteins were associated with nitrification and C1 metabolisms, with observed interactions between these pathways. The oxidoreductases nitrite oxidoreductase (NxrAB), nitrite reductase (NirK), ammonia monooxygenase (AmoABC), manganese oxidase (MnxG), formate dehydrogenase (FdoGH and FDH), and carbon monoxide dehydrogenase (CoxLM) displayed distributions indicative of biogeochemical status such as oxidative or nutritional stress, with the potential to be more sensitive than chemical sensors. Enzymes that mediate transformations of atmospheric gases like CO, CO 2 , NO, methanethiol, and methylamines were most abundant in the upwelling region. Here, we identified hot spots of biochemical transformation in the central Pacific Ocean, highlighted previously understudied metabolic pathways in the environment, and provided rich empirical data for biogeochemical models critical for forecasting ecosystem response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Acclimation of leaf respiration consistent with optimal photosynthetic capacity

Abstract Plant respiration is an important contributor to the proposed positive global carbon‐cycle feedback to climate change. However, as a major component, leaf mitochondrial (‘dark’) respiration ( R d ) differs among species adapted to contrasting environments and is known to acclimate to sustained changes in temperature. No accepted theory explains these phenomena or predicts its magnitude. Here we propose that the acclimation of R d follows an optimal behaviour related to the need to maintain long‐term average photosynthetic capacity ( V cmax ) so that available environmental resources can be most efficiently used for photosynthesis. To test this hypothesis, we extend photosynthetic co‐ordination theory to predict the acclimation of R d to growth temperature via a link to V cmax , and compare predictions to a global set of measurements from 112 sites spanning all terrestrial biomes. This extended co‐ordination theory predicts that field‐measured R d and V cmax accessed at growth temperature ( R d,tg and V cmax,tg ) should increase by 3.7% and 5.5% per degree increase in growth temperature. These acclimated responses to growth temperature are less steep than the corresponding instantaneous responses, which increase 8.1% and 9.9% per degree of measurement temperature for R d and V cmax respectively. Data‐fitted responses proof indistinguishable from the values predicted by our theory, and smaller than the instantaneous responses. Theory and data are also shown to agree that the basal rates of both R d and V cmax assessed at 25°C ( R d,25 and V cmax,25 ) decline by ~4.4% per degree increase in growth temperature. These results provide a parsimonious general theory for R d acclimation to temperature that is simpler—and potentially more reliable—than the plant functional type‐based leaf respiration schemes currently employed in most ecosystem and land‐surface models.

Wang, Han↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous electroweak physics unraveled via evidential deep learning

The ever-growing ecosystem of beyond standard model (BSM) calculations and parametrizations has motivated the development of systematic methods for making quantitative cross-comparisons over the wide range of possible models, especially with controllable uncertainties. In this setting, the language of uncertainty quantification (UQ) furnishes useful metrics for assessing statistical overlaps and discrepancies among BSM and related models. In this study, we leverage recent machine learning (ML) developments in evidential deep learning (EDL) for UQ to separate data (aleatoric) and knowledge (epistemic) uncertainties in a model-discrimination setting. We construct several potentially BSM-motivated scenarios for the anomalous electroweak interaction (AEWI) of neutrinos with nucleons in deep inelastic scattering ( v DIS). These scenarios are then quantitatively mapped, as a demonstration, alongside Monte Carlo replicas of the CT18 PDFs used to calculate the $\varDelta \chi ^{2}$ statistic for a typical multi-GeV v DIS experiment, CDHSW. Our framework effectively highlights areas of model agreement and provides a classification of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. By offering the opportunity to quantitatively understand model overlaps, the approach presented in this work can help facilitate efficient BSM model exploration and exclusion for future New Physics searches.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data used in “Enguehard et al. 2022, Machine-Learning Functional Zonation Approach for Characterizing Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces: Application to Lake Erie”

The package contains the data layers used in “Enguehard et al. 2022, Machine-Learning Functional Zonation Approach for Characterizing Terrestrial–Aquatic Interfaces: Application to Lake Erie”. Spatial data layers include: topography, wetland vegetation cover, time series of Landsat’s enhanced vegetation index (EVI) between 1990 and 2020. The study aims to characterize coastal wetlands with particular focus on the co-variability between plant dynamics, topography, soil, and other environmental factors. We proposed a functional zonation approach based on machine learning clustering to identify the spatial regions, i.e., zones that capture these co-varied properties. This approach was applied to publicly available datasets along Lake Erie, in the Great Lakes Region

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE): A Platform for Managing the Operations of On-Demand Vehicle Fleets

This paper introduces the Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE), a transportation modeling tool developed by within the Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences (CIMS) group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). HIVE is an agent-based supply/demand model for Mobility on Demand (MoD) which mixes agent-based modeling and centralized dispatch for automated and human-driven fleets and ride hail passengers. Research questions using HIVE span multiple categories, including intelligent fleet planning (assessing fleet, battery, and infrastructure investment decisions), intelligent fleet control (charge management, vehicle dispatching) and strategic business model decision-making (depot-based full-time drivers versus gig-based drivers, human-driven versus automated). The components of the HIVE model are explained and then HIVE is demonstrated in a case study using demand data from the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission data set.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2002

A geostatistical analysis of small-scale spatial variability in bacterial abundance and community structure in salt marsh creek bank sediments

Small-scale variations in bacterial abundance and community structure were examined in salt marsh sediments from Virginia's eastern shore. Samples were collected at 5 cm intervals (horizontally) along a 50 cm elevation gradient, over a 215 cm horizontal transect. For each sample, bacterial abundance was determined using acridine orange direct counts and community structure was analyzed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprinting of whole-community DNA extracts. A geostatistical analysis was used to determine the degree of spatial autocorrelation among the samples, for each variable and each direction (horizontal and vertical). The proportion of variance in bacterial abundance that could be accounted for by the spatial model was quite high (vertical: 60%, horizontal: 73%); significant autocorrelation was found among samples separated by 25 cm in the vertical direction and up to 115 cm horizontally. In contrast, most of the variability in community structure was not accounted for by simply considering the spatial separation of samples (vertical: 11%, horizontal: 22%), and must reflect variability from other parameters (e.g., variation at other spatial scales, experimental error, or environmental heterogeneity). Microbial community patch size based upon overall similarity in community structure varied between 17 cm (vertical) and 35 cm (horizontal). Overall, variability due to horizontal position (distance from the creek bank) was much smaller than that due to vertical position (elevation) for both community properties assayed. This suggests that processes more correlated with elevation (e.g., drainage and redox potential) vary at a smaller scale (therefore producing smaller patch sizes) than processes controlled by distance from the creek bank. c2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impact of dilution on microbial community structure and functional potential: comparison of numerical simulations and batch culture experiments

A series of microcosm experiments was performed using serial dilutions of a sewage microbial community to inoculate a set of batch cultures in sterile sewage. After inoculation, the dilution-defined communities were allowed to regrow for several days and a number of community attributes were measured in the regrown assemblages. Based upon a set of numerical simulations, community structure was expected to differ along the dilution gradient; the greatest differences in structure were anticipated between the undiluted-low-dilution communities and the communities regrown from the very dilute (more than 10(-4)) inocula. Furthermore, some differences were expected among the lower-dilution treatments (e.g., between undiluted and 10(-1)) depending upon the evenness of the original community. In general, each of the procedures used to examine the experimental community structures separated the communities into at least two, often three, distinct groups. The groupings were consistent with the simulated dilution of a mixture of organisms with a very uneven distribution. Significant differences in community structure were detected with genetic (amplified fragment length polymorphism and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism), physiological (community level physiological profiling), and culture-based (colony morphology on R2A agar) measurements. Along with differences in community structure, differences in community size (acridine orange direct counting), composition (ratio of sewage medium counts to R2A counts, monitoring of each colony morphology across the treatments), and metabolic redundancy (i.e., generalist versus specialist) were also observed, suggesting that the differences in structure and diversity of communities maintained in the same environment can be manifested as differences in community organization and function.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Growth Phase, Pigment Adaptation, and Climate Change Conditions on the Cellular Pigment and Carbon Content of Fifty‐One Phytoplankton Isolates

Owing to their importance in aquatic ecosystems, the demand for models that estimate phytoplankton biomass and community composition in the global ocean has increased over the last decade. Moreover, the impacts of climate change, including elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), increased stratification, and warmer sea surface temperatures, will likely shape phytoplankton community composition in the global ocean. Chemotaxonomic methods are useful for modeling phytoplankton community composition from marker pigments normalized to chlorophyll a (Chl a). However, photosynthetic pigments, particularly Chl a, are sensitive to nutrient and light conditions. Cellular carbon is less sensitive, so using carbon biomass instead may provide an alternative approach. To this end, cellular pigment and carbon concentrations were measured in 51 strains of globally relevant, cultured phytoplankton. Pigment-to-Chl a and pigment-to-carbon ratios were computed for each strain. For 25 strains, measurements were taken during two growth phases. While some differences between growth phases were observed, they did not exceed within class differences. Multiple strains of Amphidinium carterae, Ditylum brightwellii and Heterosigma akashiwo were measured to determine whether time in culture influenced pigment and carbon composition. No appreciable trends in cellular pigment or carbon content were observed. Lastly, the potential impact of climate change conditions on the pigment ratios was assessed using a multistressor experiment that included increased mean light, temperature, and elevated pCO2 on three species: Thalassiosira oceanica, Ostreococcus lucimarinus, and Synechococcus. The largest differences were observed in the pigment-to-carbon ratios, while the marker pigments largely covaried with Chl a. The implications of these observations to chemotaxonomic applications are discussed.

Pigments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021: Vera C. Rubin Observatory as a Flagship Dark Matter Experiment

Establishing that Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a flagship dark matter experiment is an essential pathway toward understanding the physical nature of dark matter. In the past two decades, wide-field astronomical surveys and terrestrial laboratories have jointly created a phase transition in the ecosystem of dark matter models and probes. Going forward, any robust understanding of dark matter requires astronomical observations, which still provide the only empirical evidence for dark matter to date. We have a unique opportunity right now to create a dark matter experiment with Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This experiment will be a coordinated effort to perform dark matter research, and provide a large collaborative team of scientists with the necessary organizational and funding supports. This approach leverages existing investments in Rubin. Studies of dark matter with Rubin LSST will also guide the design of, and confirm the results from, other dark matter experiments. Supporting a collaborative team to carry out a dark matter experiment with Rubin LSST is the key to achieving the dark matter science goals that have already been identified as high priority by the high-energy physics and astronomy communities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA Fluid Lensing & MiDAR - Next-Generation Remote Sensing Technologies for Aquatic Remote Sensing

Piti's Tepungan Bay and Tumon Bay, two of five marine preserves in Guam, have not been mapped to a level of detail sufficient to support proposed management strategies. This project addresses this gap by providing high resolution maps to promote sustainable, responsible use of the area while protecting natural resources. Dr. Chirayath, a research scientist at the NASA Ames Laboratory, developed a theoretical model and algorithm called 'Fluid Lensing'. Fluid lensing removes optical distortions caused by moving water, improving the clarity of the images taken of the corals below the surface. We will also be using MiDAR, a next-generation remote sensing instrument that provides real-time multispectral video using an array of LED emitters coupled with NASA's FluidCam Imaging System, which may assist Guam's coral reef response team in understanding the severity and magnitude of coral bleaching events. This project will produce a 3D orthorectified model of the shallow water coral reef ecosystems in Tumon Bay and Piti marine preserves. These 3D models may be printed, creating a tactile diorama and increasing understanding of coral reefs among various audiences, including key decision makers. More importantly, the final data products can enable accurate and quantitative health assessment capabilities for coral reef ecosystems.

Aquatic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations

Understanding terrestrial ecosystems and their response to anthropogenic climate change requires quantification of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. However, top-down and bottom-up estimates of large-scale land-atmosphere fluxes, including the northern extratropical growing season net flux (GSNF), show significant discrepancies. We developed a data-driven metric for the GSNF using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observations collected during the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations and Atmospheric Tomography Mission flight campaigns. This aircraft-derived metric is bias-corrected using three independent atmospheric inversion systems. We estimate the northern extratropical GSNF to be 5.7 ± 0.3 Pg C and use it to evaluate net biosphere productivity from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. While the model-to-model spread in the GSNF has decreased in the CMIP6 models relative to that of the CMIP5 models, there is still disagreement on the magnitude and timing of seasonal carbon uptake with most models underestimating the GSNF and overestimating the length of the growing season relative to the observations. We also use an emergent constraint approach to estimate annual northern extratropical gross primary productivity to be 56 ± 17 Pg C, heterotrophic respiration to be 25 ± 13 Pg C, and net primary productivity to be 28 ± 12 Pg C. The flux inferred from these aircraft observations provides an additional constraint on large-scale gross fluxes in prognostic Earth system models that may ultimately improve our ability to accurately predict carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2009

Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Estes, Maurice G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗