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DOE OSTI2014

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Enhances CO 2 Exchange Rates in Freshwater Marsh Ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the shorthydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO 2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO 2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO 2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO 2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO 2 on an annual basis (211 to 2110 g CO 2 m -2 yr -1 ) compared to El Niño and neutral years (25 to 243.5 g CO 2 m -2 yr -1 ). SRS was a small source for CO 2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO 2 m -2 yr -1 ) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (216 g CO 2 m -2 yr -1 ). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO 2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid predictive modeling approach simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data

This dataset includes measured data used for developing hybrid-predictive-modeling (HPM) approach and simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data across several Fluxnet sites, SNOTEL sites and East River locations (Chen et al., 2020 in review). Fluxnet sites considered in this study include: CA-OAS, CA-OBS, US-NR1, US-TON, US-VAR, US-SRM, US-WHS, US-WKG. Snotel sites Butte (ER-BT), Porphyry Creek (ER-PK) and Schofield Pass (ER-SP) are included as well 16 east river locations with different vegetation types denoted by evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF), riparian shrublands (RS) and meadow grassland (MS). This data package includes: 1) A summary spread sheet of the sites and acronyms for data variables. 2) Processed Fluxnet datasets that are obtained from Fluxnet.fluxdata.org with HPM estimated evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (RECO). Trained models and metrics for parameters for the Fluxnet sites were added in an update on November 2, 2020; 3) Processed SNOTEL datasets obtained from www.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ and HPM estimated ET and RECO; 4) Weather data at east river locations obtained from DAYMET (daymet.ornl.gov) as well as HPM estimated ET and RECO. NDVI datasets are obtained from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 on Google Earth Engine platform. Detailed QA/QC and sampling methods of measured data are available at the original data source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model simulations of Plum Island Ecosystems LTER low marsh site using ELM-PFLOTRAN

Model simulations using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) coupled to the PFLOTRAN reactive transport model via the Alquimia interface. The simulations were conducted for a tidal salt marsh at the Plum Island Ecosystems LTER near Rowley, Massachusetts, USA. Model simulations were forced using site-specific tidal cycles and salinity, and the simulations used a biogeochemical reaction network including aerobic decomposition, sulfate reduction, iron reduction, and methanogenesis. Model outputs include simulated carbon stocks, carbon dioxide and methane fluxes, and porewater concentrations of key solutes related to sulfur, iron, and carbon cycling. The model simulations included a saline simulation (with tidal sulfate inputs), a fresh simulation (with low salinity and low sulfate inputs), and a saline simulation with lower vegetation productivity to represent the effect of salinity on vegetation. These simulations were conducted to demonstrate that a new model framework incorporating subsurface redox and biogeochemical interactions into a land surface model could reproduce measured surface greenhouse gas fluxes and biogeochemical dynamics in tidal marsh ecosystems, and to test whether including redox interactions in a land surface model would allow the model to resolve contrasts in biogeochemical cycling and greenhouse gas production between saline and freshwater wetlands.The data package includes gzipped tar archives (which can be expanded using standard tar and gzip utilities) of model outputs from three model configurations: saline subsurface and reduced vegetation productivity related to salinity; saline subsurface with vegetation productivity not reduced; and freshwater. Also included are code for the modified E3SM model, Alquimia interface, and PFLOTRAN reactive transport simulator in gzipped tar format; plain text parameter and configuration files; python code files for visualizing model output and defining model configurations; and model output, tide and salinity forcing, and configuration files in netCDF format. See the README.md file in the data package for a detailed description of all files contained in the package. All files are in netCDF (.nc), gzipped tar archive (.tar.gz or .tgz), or text (all other files).Updated: May 13, 2024. Model output, E3SM code, PFLOTRAN input files, and python codes for visualizing results were updated to reflect changes made for the manuscript revision. The updated archive reflects the code and model output from the final accepted manuscript. Changes included updated reaction parameters reflecting improved parameterization and additional comparisons with field measurements. E3SM code changes included better support for multiple grid cells and improved flow and transport parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Using a Regional Cluster of AmeriFlux Sites in Central California to Advance Our Knowledge on Decadal-Scale Ecosystem-Atmosphere Carbon Dioxide Exchange

Continuous eddy convariance measurements of carbon dioxide, water vapor and heat were measured continuously between an oak savanna and an annual grassland in California over a 4 year period. These systems serve as representative sites for biomes in Mediterranean climates and experience much seasonal and inter-annual variability in temperature and precipitation. These sites hence serve as natural laboratories for how whole ecosystem will respond to warmer and drier conditions. The savanna proved to be a moderate sink of carbon, taking up about 150 gC m-2y-1 compared to the annual grassland, which tended to be carbon neutral and often a source during drier years. But this carbon sink by the savanna came at a cost. This ecosystem used about 100 mm more water per year than the grassland. And because the savanna was darker and rougher its air temperature was about 0.5 C warmer. In addition to our flux measurements, we collected vast amounts of ancillary data to interpret the site and fluxes, making this site a key site for model validation and parameterization. Datasets consist of terrestrial and airborne lidar for determining canopy structure, ground penetrating radar data on root distribution, phenology cameras monitoring leaf area index and its seasonality, predawn water potential, soil moisture, stem diameter and physiological capacity of photosynthesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigate the Security of Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem Applications

Apps that run on mobile devices are one of critical components of the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem and pose possible threat actor points of entry that may impact the trust and security of EV charging systems in the future. Mobile apps often rely on communication between cloud servers and users, thereby creating potential points of entry for cyberattacks. Although app stores such as Apple App Store or Google Play Store generally test the security of apps, the cyber aspects may not be sufficient for many entities including DOD, federal fleets, and commercial entities. A more thorough inspection and the ability to influence developers is imminently needed. This research studies security attributes and vulnerabilities of a sample of mobile applications that support key user functions in the EV ecosystem. The study shows that all analyzed apps have security risks, categorized as either high or medium or both and a comprehensive cybersecurity guideline for developing mobile apps is necessary.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO 2 , the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Metagenomic analysis of microbial consortium from natural crude oil that seeps into the marine ecosystem offshore Southern California

Crude oils can be major contaminants of the marine ecosystem and microorganisms play a significant role in the degradation of the main constituents of crude oil. To increase our understanding of the microbial hydrocarbon degradation process in the marine ecosystem, we collected crude oil from an active seep area located in the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC) and generated a total of about 52 Gb of raw metagenomic sequence data. The assembled data comprised ~500 Mb, representing ~1.1 million genes derived primarily from chemolithoautotrophic bacteria. Members of Oceanospirillales, a bacterial order belonging to the Deltaproteobacteria, recruited less than 2% of the assembled genes within the SBC metagenome. In contrast, the microbial community associated with the oil plume that developed in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout in 2010, was dominated by Oceanospirillales, which comprised more than 60% of the metagenomic data generated from the DWH oil plume. This suggests that Oceanospirillales might play a less significant role in the microbially mediated hydrocarbon conversion within the SBC seep oil compared to the DWH plume oil. We hypothesize that this difference results from the SBC oil seep being mostly anaerobic, while the DWH oil plume is aerobic. Within the Archaea, the phylum Euryarchaeota, recruited more than 95% of the assembled archaeal sequences from the SBC oil seep metagenome, with more than 50% of the sequences assigned to members of the orders Methanomicrobiales and Methanosarcinales. These orders contain organisms capable of anaerobic methanogenesis and methane oxidation (AOM) and we hypothesize that these orders and their metabolic capabilities may be fundamental to the ecology of the SBC oil seep.

archaea↗

DOE OSTI2013

Local and latitudinal variation in abundance: the mechanisms shaping the distribution of an ecosystem engineer

Ecological processes that determine the abundance of species within ecological communities vary across space and time. These scale-dependent processes are especially important when they affect key members of a community, such as ecosystem engineers that create shelter and food resources for other species. Yet, few studies have examined the suite of processes that shape the abundance of ecosystem engineers. Here, we evaluated the relative influence of temporal variation, local processes, and latitude on the abundance of an engineering insect—a rosette-galling midge, Rhopalomyia solidaginis (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae). Over a period of 3–5 years, we studied the density and size of galls across a suite of local experiments that manipulated genetic variation, soil nutrient availability, and the removal of other insects from the host plant, Solidago altissima (tall goldenrod). We also surveyed gall density within a single growing season across a 2,300 km latitudinal transect of goldenrod populations in the eastern United States. At the local scale, we found that host-plant genotypic variation was the best predictor of rosette gall density and size within a single year. We found that the removal of other insect herbivores resulted in an increase in gall density and size. The amendment of soil nutrients for four years had no effect on gall density, but galls were smaller in carbon-added plots compared to control and nitrogen additions. Finally, we observed that gall density varied several fold across years. At the biogeographic scale, we observed that the density of rosette gallers peaked at mid-latitudes. Using meta-analytic approaches, we found that the effect size of time, followed by host-plant genetic variation and latitude were the best predictors of gall density. Taken together, our study provides a unique comparison of multiple factors across different spatial and temporal scales that govern engineering insect herbivore density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Ecosystem Carbon Emissions from 2015 Forest Fires in Interior Alaska

In the summer of 2015, hundreds of wildfires burned across the state of Alaska, and consumed more than 1.6 million ha of boreal forest and wetlands in the Yukon-Koyukuk region. Mapping of 113 large wildfires using Landsat satellite images from before and after 2015 indicated that nearly 60% of this area was burned at moderate-to-high severity levels. Field measurements near the town of Tanana on the Yukon River were carried out in July of 2017 in both unburned and 2015 burned forested areas (nearly adjacent to one-another) to visually verify locations of different Landsat burn severity classes (low, moderate, or high). Results: Field measurements indicated that the loss of surface organic layers in boreal ecosystem fires is a major factor determining post-fire soil temperature changes, depth of thawing, and carbon losses from the mineral topsoil layer. Measurements in forest sites showed that soil temperature profiles to 30 cm depth at burned forest sites increased by an average of 8o - 10o C compared to unburned forest sites. Sampling and laboratory analysis indicated a 65% reduction in soil carbon content and a 58% reduction in soil nitrogen content in severely burned sample sites compared to soil mineral samples from nearby unburned spruce forests. Conclusions: Combined with nearly unprecedented forest areas severely burned in the Interior region of Alaska in 2015, total ecosystem fire emission of carbon to the atmosphere exceeded most previous estimates for the state.

Ecosystem↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite-Detected Ocean Ecosystem Response to Volcanic Eruption in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean

Volcanic eruptions in the Aleutian archipelago during the summer of 2008 deposited large quantities of iron-laden ash to the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean. The surface ocean ecosystem response has been previously characterized using limited in situ and autonomous field measurements and numerical modeling, but basin-scale satellite remote sensing has been limited to a simple description of chlorophyll variability. Here, we show that the ecosystem response is a complex combination of phytoplankton biomass and physiology that can be described with satellite ocean color diagnostics such as the chlorophyll to carbon biomass ratio (Chl:Cphyto) and chlorophyll fluorescence yield. Together, these quantities outline a more complete picture of ecological response spanning unique signals of iron stress (and relief from), photo acclimation, changes in phytoplankton growth rate, increases in biomass, and timescales of decay for these processes.

Ocean Ecosystem↗

NASA NTRS2019

Chemical Ecosystem Selection on Mineral Surfaces Reveals Long-Term Dynamics Consistent with the Spontaneous Emergence of Mutual Catalysis

How did chemicals first become organized into systems capable of self-propagation and adaptive evolution? One possibility is that the first evolvers were chemical ecosystems localized on mineral surfaces and composed of sets of molecular species that could catalyze each other’s formation. We used a bottom-up experimental framework; chemical ecosystem selection (CES) to evaluate this perspective and search for surface-associated; and mutually catalytic chemical systems based on the changes in chemistry they are expected to induce. Here, we report the results of preliminary CES experiments conducted using a synthetic “prebiotic soup” and pyrite grains, which yield dynamical patterns that are suggestive of the emergence of mutual catalysis. While more research is needed to better understand the specific patterns observed here and determine whether they are reflective of self-propagation, these results illustrate the potential power of CES to test competing hypotheses for the emergence of protobiological chemical systems.

autocatalysis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observing Ocean Ecosystem Responses to Volcanic Ash

Volcanic eruptions can be catastrophic events, particularly when they occur in inhabited coastal environments. They also play important roles in climate and biogeochemical cycles, including through nutrient deposition in the ocean. Volcanic ash studies in the ocean have focused on the phytoplankton response, generally quantifying changes in chlorophyll-a concentration. Many gaps remain in addressing fundamental questions regarding why volcanic ash deposition may enhance or limit both phytoplankton growth and/or drive community composition shifts. Here we outline a wide, multidisciplinary vision for monitoring volcanic eruptions near ocean ecosystems from satellites, including considerations for characteristics of airborne volcanic ash and ash geochemistry in seawater. Ultimately, observations beyond chlorophyll-a are needed to quantify phytoplankton communities (including harmful algal blooms) and possible impacts across higher trophic levels. We synthesize relevant research from volcanic studies as well as atmospheric and ocean sciences to identify the ‘known unknowns’ in ash-ecosystem studies. Our goal is to move toward an improved understanding of how real-time and near-real-time monitoring of volcanic eruptions can help address societally relevant questions.

volcano↗

DOE OSTI2019

Novel Approach for Considering Ecosystem Services at Industrial Sites near Agricultural Lands - 19482

Natural resource damages from industrial operations have been studied for years at legacy sites, including the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford site in southeastern Washington State. Encompassing nearly 1,500 km{sup 2} (600 mi{sup 2}), this site represents one of the world's largest cleanup projects with an estimated cost exceeding $320 billion and perhaps double that. The site includes an extensive buffer zone beyond the relatively limited portion (15%) used for nuclear materials production and associated waste storage and disposal. Before Hanford existed, most of the local lands were used for agriculture, and that use has continued nearby. Historical data relevant to the natural resource damage assessment process include location-specific irrigation practices, rates of groundwater withdrawal, and sustainable yields. The potential for considering the benefit of an ecosystem service is also being explored. Undeveloped areas of the site have long provided natural habitat for a wide variety of species, including pollinators. Thus, adjacent agricultural lands have benefited from pollinator services for years. This study describes a novel approach for considering the benefit of increased crop value due to this pollinator service. The approach combines spatial data for local pollinator-dependent crops with pollinator abundance data. A production function is then applied to estimate the agro-economic value resulting from crop pollination. A preliminary analysis indicates that the increased value for apple crops alone near Hanford could be on the order of $80 million a year. The benefits from this ecosystem service could offer practical context as a complement to the assessment of natural resource damages. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO 2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?

Large uncertainty exists in model projections of the land carbon (C) sink response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments lasting a decade or more have investigated ecosystem responses to a step change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. To interpret FACE results in the context of gradual increases in atmospheric CO 2 over decades to centuries, we used a suite of seven models to simulate the Duke and Oak Ridge FACE experiments extended for 300 years of CO 2 enrichment. We also determine key modeling assumptions that drive divergent projections of terrestrial C uptake and evaluate whether these assumptions can be constrained by experimental evidence. All models simulated increased terrestrial C pools resulting from CO 2 enrichment, though there was substantial variability in quasi-equilibrium C sequestration and rates of change. In two of two models that assume that plant nitrogen (N) uptake is solely a function of soil N supply, the net primary production response to elevated CO 2 became progressively N limited. In four of five models that assume that N uptake is a function of both soil N supply and plant N demand, elevated CO 2 led to reduced ecosystem N losses and thus progressively relaxed nitrogen limitation. Many allocation assumptions resulted in increased wood allocation relative to leaves and roots which reduced the vegetation turnover rate and increased C sequestration. Additionally, self-thinning assumptions had a substantial impact on C sequestration in two models. As a result, accurate representation of N process dynamics (in particular N uptake), allocation, and forest self-thinning is key to minimizing uncertainty in projections of future C sequestration in response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evapotranspiration in Northern Eurasia: Impact of forcing uncertainties on terrestrial ecosystem model estimates

Abstract The ecosystems in Northern Eurasia (NE) play an important role in the global water cycle and the climate system. While evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical variable to understand this role, ET over this region remains largely unstudied. Using an improved version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with five widely used forcing data sets, we examine the impact that uncertainties in climate forcing data have on the magnitude, variability, and dominant climatic drivers of ET for the period 1979–2008. Estimates of regional average ET vary in the range of 241.4–335.7 mm yr −1 depending on the choice of forcing data. This range corresponds to as much as 32% of the mean ET. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of long‐term average ET across NE are generally consistent for all forcing data sets. Our ET estimates in NE are largely affected by uncertainties in precipitation ( P ), air temperature ( T ), incoming shortwave radiation ( R ), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). During the growing season, the correlations between ET and each forcing variable indicate that T is the dominant factor in the north and P in the south. Unsurprisingly, the uncertainties in climate forcing data propagate as well to estimates of the volume of water available for runoff (here defined as P‐ET). While the Climate Research Unit data set is overall the best choice of forcing data in NE according to our assessment, the quality of these forcing data sets remains a major challenge to accurately quantify the regional water balance in NE.

Liu, Yaling↗

DOE OSTI2015

Observations of 14 CO 2 in ecosystem respiration from a temperate deciduous forest in Northern Wisconsin

We show that the 14 CO 2 composition of plant and soil respiration can be used to determine the residence time of photosynthetically fixed carbon before it is released back to the atmosphere. To estimate the residence time of actively cycled carbon in a temperate forest, we employed two approaches for estimating the Δ 14 CO 2 of ecosystem respiration (Δ 14 C-R eco ) at the Willow Creek AmeriFlux site in Northern Wisconsin, USA. Our first approach was to construct nighttime Keeling plots from subcanopy profiles of Δ 14 CO 2 and CO 2 , providing estimates of Δ 14 C-R eco of 121.7‰ in June and 42.0‰ in August 2012. These measurements are likely dominated by soil fluxes due to proximity to the ground level. Our second approach utilized samples taken over 20 months within the forest canopy and from 396 m above ground level at the nearby LEF NOAA tall tower site (Park Falls, WI). In this canopy-minus-background approach we employed a mixing model described by Miller and Tans (2003) for estimating isotopic sources by subtracting time-varying background conditions. For the period from May 2011 to December 2012 the estimated Δ 14 C-R eco using the Miller-Tans model was 76.8‰. Together, these Δ 14 C-R eco values represent mean R eco carbon ages of approximately 1–19 years. We also found that heterotrophic soil-respired Δ 14 C at Willow Creek was 5–38‰ higher (i.e., 1–10 years older) than predicted by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach global biosphere carbon model for the 1 × 1 pixel nearest to the site. Finally, this study provides much needed observational constraints of ecosystem carbon residence times, which are a major source of uncertainty in terrestrial carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests

Forest carbon sink strengths are governed by plant growth, mineralization of dead organic matter, and disturbance. Across landscapes, remote sensing can provide information about aboveground states of forests and this information can be linked to models to estimate carbon cycling in forests close to steady state. For aggrading forests this approach is more challenging and has not been demonstrated. Here in this paper we apply a Bayesian approach, linking a simple model to a range of data, to evaluate their information content, for two aggrading forests. We compare high information content analyses using local observations with retrievals using progressively sparser remotely sensed information (repeated, single, and no woody biomass observations). The net biome productivity of both forests is constrained to be a net sink with <2 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 variation across the range of inputs. However, the sequestration of particular carbon pool(s) varies with assimilated biomass information. Assimilation of repeated biomass observations reduces uncertainty and/or bias in all ecosystem C pools not just wood, compared to analyses using single or no stock information. As verification, our repeated biomass analysis explains 78–86% of variation in litter dynamics at one forest, while at the second forest total dead organic matter estimates are within observational uncertainty. The uncertainty of retrieved ecosystem traits in the repeated biomass analysis is reduced by up to 50% compared to analyses with less biomass information. This study quantifies the importance of repeated woody observations in constraining the dynamics of both wood and dead organic matter, highlighting the benefit of proposed remote sensing missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗