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NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Set of Indicators to Identify, Monitor, and Track Impacts and Change in Forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment(NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

U.S. forests↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from milli-second pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar lightcurve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

PULSAR↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from millisecond pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar light-curve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

x-ray↗

NASA NTRS2007

1393 Ring Bus at JPL: Description and Status

Completed Ring Bus IC V&V Phase - Ring Bus Test Plan Completed for SIM Project - Applicable to Other Projects Implemented a Avionics Bus Based upon the IEEE 1393 Standard - Excellent Starting Point for a General Purpose High-Speed Spacecraft Bus - Designed to Meet SIM Requirements for - Real-time deterministic, distributed systems. - Control system requirements - Fault detection and recovery Other JPL Projects Considering Implementation F'light Software Ring Bus Driver Module Began in 2006, Continues Participating in Standard Revision. Search for Earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars and measure the masses and orbits of the planets it finds. Survey 2000 nearby stars for planetary systems to learn whether our Solar System is unusual, or typical. Make a new catalog of star position 100 times more accurate than current measurements. Learn how our galaxy formed and will evolve by studying the dynamics of its stars. Critically test models of exactly how stars shine, including exotic objects like black holes, neutron stars and white dwarfs.

time synchronization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Geospace Dynamics Constellation—Providing the first Systematic Measurements of Global Magnetospheric Energy Inputs and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Responses

The Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) is NASA's next strategic Living With a Star mission. GDC's goals are: 1) Understand how the high-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere system responds to variable solar wind/magnetosphere forcing; and 2) Understand how internal processes in the global ionosphere-thermosphere system redistribute mass, momentum, and energy. Planned for launch by the end of the decade, GDC will use six identical observatories, each identically instrumented to fully characterize the magnetospheric drivers of the I-T system as well as the global response of the ionized and neutral gases. GDC will do this with a series of orbital configurations that will enable it to study the widest range of spatial and temporal scales to date, ranging from hundreds of kilometers and several seconds to tens of minutes, and extending through the regional to the global scale. This talk presents GDC's current status, measurement capabilities, sampling scheme, and model development efforts and show how GDC will fit into the larger Heliophysics ecosystem, by 1) obtaining critically needed scientific observations; 2) providing a source for real-time space weather and situational awareness, as well as retrospective studies to further the science of space weather; 3) serving as a "strategic hub" for other space-based and ground-based efforts that want to leverage GDC to perform complementary science. To get the most benefit from GDC’s observations, it will be critical to identify partnerships with other research efforts in the ITM and Geospace arenas, including those utilizing space-based, ground-based, or theoretical investigations. We particularly would like to discuss with groups who are planning or considering observational campaigns during the GDC era, to find ways to leverage GDC observations to do synergistic science that could not be done otherwise.

Douglas E Rowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Logistics and Supportability for Crewed Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA’s future missions aim to establish a sustained human presence on the lunar surface and send humans to Mars. These missions will send crews farther from home than previous missions, limiting the opportunities for resupply missions. Additionally, the use of multiple launches and reusable elements will increase mission and campaign complexity. Logistics and supportability analysis evaluates the link between mission and system characteristics and key metrics such as logistics and spares mass and volume, crew time, and risk. As missions become increasingly complex and crews are logistically isolated for longer periods of time, logistics and supportability will become more powerful drivers of risk and cost and, therefore, more important considerations during system and mission development. When logistics and supportability are considered from the beginning of system and mission development, opportunities arise to create more efficient, lower-risk systems. Design choices made without detailed consideration of logistics and supportability have the potential to result in greater risks and increased costs as all options may not have been analyzed. This paper provides an overview of a methodology used for space mission logistics and supportability analysis, including key metrics, assumptions, and required inputs. Example applications of this methodology to explore the impacts of system architecture, dormancy, and synergies between lunar and Mars missions are also presented. Conducting these holistic analyses enables informed decision-making for mission planning and system design, which can help mitigate the risk of loss of mission, vehicle, or crew. Using the knowledge of historical missions, experiences gained on the lunar surface, and logistics and supportability analyses, NASA can examine and optimize supportability characteristics for safer and more effective operations for future lunar and Mars missions.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Logistics and Supportability for Crewed Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

Supportability↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Preliminary Model for Spacecraft Propulsion Performance Analysis Based on Nuclear Gain and Subsystem Mass-Power Balances

A preliminary model for spacecraft propulsion performance analysis based on nuclear gain and subsystem mass-power balances are presented in viewgraph form. For very fast missions with straight-line trajectories, it has been shown that mission trip time is proportional to the cube root of alpha. Analysis of spacecraft power systems via a power balance and examination of gain vs. mass-power ratio has shown: 1) A minimum gain is needed to have enough power for thruster and driver operation; and 2) Increases in gain result in decreases in overall mass-power ratio, which in turn leads to greater achievable accelerations. However, subsystem mass-power ratios and efficiencies are crucial: less efficient values for these can partially offset the effect of nuclear gain. Therefore, it is of interest to monitor the progress of gain-limited subsystem technologies and it is also possible that power-limited systems with sufficiently low alpha may be competitive for such ambitious missions. Topics include Space flight requirements; Spacecraft energy gain; Control theory for performance; Mission assumptions; Round trips: Time and distance; Trip times; Vehicle acceleration; and Minimizing trip times.

Chakrabarti, Suman↗

NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

NR-QBO↗

NASA NTRS2022

Design of synthetic collagens that assemble into supramolecular banded fibers as a functional biomaterial testbed

Collagens are the most abundant proteins of the extracellular matrix, and the hierarchical folding and supramolecular assembly of collagens into banded fibers is essential for mediating cell-matrix interactions and tissue mechanics. Collagen extracted from animal tissues is a valuable commodity, but suffers from safety and purity issues, limiting its biomaterials applications. Synthetic collagen biomaterials could address these issues, but their construction requires molecular-level control of folding and supramolecular assembly into ordered banded fibers, comparable to those of natural collagens. Here, we show an innovative class of banded fiber-forming synthetic collagens that recapitulate the morphology and some biological properties of natural collagens. The synthetic collagens comprise a functional-driver module that is flanked by adhesive modules that effectively promote their supramolecular assembly. Multiscale simulations support a plausible molecular-level mechanism of supramolecular assembly, allowing precise design of banded fiber morphology. We also experimentally demonstrate that synthetic fibers stimulate osteoblast differentiation at levels comparable to natural collagen. This work thus deepens understanding of collagen biology and disease by providing a ready source of safe, functional biomaterials that bridge the current gap between the simplicity of peptide biophysical models and the complexity of in vivo animal systems.

Jinyuan Hu↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Ultraviolet Radiation Environment around M Dwarf Exoplanet Host Stars

The spectral and temporal behavior of exoplanet host stars is a critical input to models of the chemistry and evolution of planetary atmospheres. Ultraviolet photons influence the atmospheric temperature profiles and production of potential biomarkers on Earth-like planets around these stars. At present, little observational or theoretical basis exists for understanding the ultraviolet spectra of M dwarfs, despite their critical importance to predicting and interpreting the spectra of potentially habitable planets as they are obtained in the coming decades. Using observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, we present a study of the UV radiation fields around nearby M dwarf planet hosts that covers both far-UV (FUV) and near-UV (NUV) wavelengths. The combined FUV+NUV spectra are publicly available in machine-readable format. We find that all six exoplanet host stars in our sample (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, GJ 832, GJ 667C, and GJ 1214) exhibit some level of chromospheric and transition region UV emission. No "UV-quiet" M dwarfs are observed. The bright stellar Lyman-alpha emission lines are reconstructed, and we find that the Lyman-alpha line fluxes comprise approximately 37%-75% of the total 1150-3100 A flux from most M dwarfs; approximately greater than 10(exp3) times the solar value. We develop an empirical scaling relation between Lyman-alpha and Mg II emission, to be used when interstellar H I attenuation precludes the direct observation of Lyman-alpha. The intrinsic unreddened flux ratio is F(Lyman-alpha)/F(Mg II) = 10(exp3). The F(FUV)/F(NUV) flux ratio, a driver for abiotic production of the suggested biomarkers O2 and O3, is shown to be approximately 0.5-3 for all M dwarfs in our sample, greather than 10(exp3) times the solar ratio. For the four stars with moderate signal-to-noise Cosmic Origins Spectrograph time-resolved spectra, we find UV emission line variability with amplitudes of 50%.500% on 10(exp2)-10(exp3) s timescales. This effect should be taken into account in future UV transiting planet studies, including searches for O3 on Earth-like planets. Finally, we observe relatively bright H2 fluorescent emission from four of the M dwarf exoplanetary systems (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, and GJ 832). Additional modeling work is needed to differentiate between a stellar photospheric or possible exoplanetary origin for the hot (T(H2) approximately equal to 2000-4000 K) molecular gas observed in these objects.

France, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2009

Velocity Characteristics of Evaporated Plasma using Hinode/EIS

This paper presents a detailed study of chromospheric evaporation using the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) onboard Hinode in conjunction with HXR observat,ions from RHESSI. The advanced capabilities of EIS were used to measure Doppler shifts in 15 emission lines covering the temperature range T=0.05-16 MK during the impulsive phase of a C-class flare on 2007 December 14. Blueshifts indicative of the evaporated material were observed in six emission lines from Fe XIV-XXIV (2-16 MK). Upflow velocity was found to scale with temperature as v(sub up) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 5-17 T (MK). Although the hottest emission lines, Fe XXIII and Fe XXIV, exhibited upflows of greater than 200 kilometers per second, their line profiles were found to be dominated by a stationary component in stark contrast to the predictions of the standard flare model. Emission from O VI-Fe XIII lines (0.5-1.5 MK) was found to be redshifted by v(sub down) (kilometers per second) approximately equal to 60-17 T (MK) and was interpreted as the downward-moving 'plug' characteristic of explosive evaporation. These downflows occur at temperatures significantly higher than previously expected. Both upflows and downflows were spatially and temporally correlated with HXR emission observed by RHESSI that provided the properties of the electron beam deemed to be the driver of the evaporation. The energy contained in the electron beam was found to be greater than or equal to 10(sup 11) ergs per square centimeter per second consistent with the value required to drive explosive chromospheric evaporation from hydrodynamic simulations.

Milligan, Ryan O.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Using Giovanni in Investigating the Links between Environmental Processes and Drought in Northern sub-Saharan Africa

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching East-West across Africa, is very vulnerable because of the highly active environmental and meteorological processes associated with its unique location and human activities that adversely impact the regional water cycle. Over the years, this region has suffered frequent severe droughts that have caused tremendous hardship and loss of life to millions of its inhabitants due to the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. On the other hand, the NSSA region shows one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. An interdisciplinary research effort funded by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand possible connections between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the water cycle, through associated changes in land-cover, surface albedo, emissions, atmospheric processes, precipitation, soil moisture, surface evaporation and runoff, and groundwater recharge. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized to investigate these multiple processes to clarify possible links between them. However, by using Giovanni, we are able to extract and jointly analyze some of the important relevant parameters to obtain a first insight into their relationships. In this presentation, we will discuss these preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the water cycle components and the environmental change dynamics due to biomass burning and related processes in the NSSA region.

water resources↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Mars Crustal Magnetic Field Control of Plasma Boundary Locations and Atmospheric Loss: MHD Prediction and Comparison with MAVEN

We present results from a global Mars time-dependent MHD simulation under constant solar wind and solar radiation impact considering inherent magnetic field variations due to continuous planetary rotation. We calculate the 3-D shapes and locations of the bow shock (BS) and the induced magnetospheric boundary (IMB) and then examine their dynamic changes with time. We develop a physics-based, empirical algorithm to effectively summarize the multidimensional crustal field distribution. It is found that by organizing the model results using this new approach, the Mars crustal field shows a clear, significant influence on both the IMB and the BS. Specifically, quantitative relationships have been established between the field distribution and the mean boundary distances and the cross-section areas in the terminator plane for both of the boundaries. The model-predicted relationships are further verified by the observations from the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. Our analysis shows that the boundaries are collectively affected by the global crustal field distribution, which, however, cannot be simply parameterized by a local parameter like the widely used subsolar longitude. Our calculations show that the variability of the intrinsic crustal field distribution in Mars-centered Solar Orbital itself may account for approx.60% of the variation in total atmospheric loss, when external drivers are static. It is found that the crustal field has not only a shielding effect for atmospheric loss but also an escape-fostering effect by positively affecting the transterminator ion flow cross-section area.

Global↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cost as a technology driver

Cost managment as a guiding factor in optimum development of technology, and proper timing of cost-saving programs in the development of a system or technology with payoffs in development and operational advances are discussed and illustrated. Advances enhancing the performance of hardware or software advances raising productivity or reducing cost, are outlined, with examples drawn from: thermochemical thrust maximization, development of cryogenic storage tanks, improvements in fuel cells for Space Shuttle, design of a spacecraft pyrotechnic initiator, cost cutting by reduction in the number of parts to be joined, and cost cutting by dramatic reductions in circuit component number with small-scale double-diffused integrated circuitry. Program-focused supporting research and technology models are devised to aid judicious timing of cost-conscious research programs.

Fitzgerald, P. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Snow Cover and Precipitation Impacts on Dry Season Streamflow in the Lower Mekong Basin

Climate change impacts on dry season streamflow in the Mekong River are relatively understudied, despite the fact that water availability during this time is critically important for agricultural and ecological systems. Analyses of two gauging stations (Vientiane and Kratie) in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) show significant positive correlations between dry season (March through May, MAM) discharge and upper basin snow cover and local precipitation. Using snow cover, precipitation, and upstream discharge as predictors, we develop skillful regression models for MAM streamflow at Vientiane and Kratie, and force these models with output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The GCM simulations predict divergent trends in snow cover (decreasing) and precipitation (increasing) over the twenty-first century, driving overall negligible long-term trends in dry season streamflow. Our study demonstrates how future changes in dry season streamflow in the LMB will depend on changes in snow cover and precipitation, factors that will need to be considered when assessing the full basin response to other climatic and non-climatic drivers.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗