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DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Multi-System Approach to Characterizing Bioactivity of Commonly Occurring Chemicals

A 2019 retrospective study analyzed wristband personal samplers from fourteen different communities across three different continents for over 1530 organic chemicals. Investigators identified fourteen chemicals (G14) detected in over 50% of personal samplers. The G14 represent a group of chemicals that individuals are commonly exposed to, and are mainly associated with consumer products including plasticizers, fragrances, flame retardants, and pesticides. The high frequency of exposure to these chemicals raises questions of their potential adverse human health effects. Additionally, the possibility of exposure to mixtures of these chemicals is likely due to their co-occurrence; thus, the potential for mixtures to induce differential bioactivity warrants further investigation. This study describes a novel approach to broadly evaluate the hazards of personal chemical exposures by coupling data from personal sampling devices with high-throughput bioactivity screenings using in vitro and non-mammalian in vivo models. To account for species and sensitivity differences, screening was conducted using primary normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cells and early life-stage zebrafish. Mixtures of the G14 and most potent G14 chemicals were created to assess potential mixture effects. Chemical bioactivity was dependent on the model system, with five and eleven chemicals deemed bioactive in NHBE and zebrafish, respectively, supporting the use of a multi-system approach for bioactivity testing and highlighting sensitivity differences between the models. In both NHBE and zebrafish, mixture effects were observed when screening mixtures of the most potent chemicals. Observations of BMC-based mixtures in NHBE (NHBE BMC Mix) and zebrafish (ZF BMC Mix) suggested antagonistic effects. In this study, consumer product-related chemicals were prioritized for bioactivity screening using personal exposure data. High-throughput high-content screening was utilized to assess the chemical bioactivity and mixture effects of the most potent chemicals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Ordinary Differential Equation Solvers in Rust Programming Language for Modeling Vehicle Powertrain Systems: Preprint

Efficient and accurate ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers are necessary for powertrain and vehicle dynamics modeling. However, current commercial ODE solvers can be financially prohibitive, leading to a need for accessible, effective, open-source ODE solvers designed for powertrain modeling. Rust is a compiled programming language that has the potential to be used for fast and easy-to-use powertrain models, given its exceptional computational performance, robust package ecosystem, and short time required for modelers to become proficient. However, of the three commonly used (>3,000 downloads) packages in Rust with ODE solver capabilities, only one has more than four numerical methods implemented, and none are designed specifically for modeling physical systems. Therefore, the goal of the Differential Equation System Solver (DESS) was to implement accurate ODE solvers in Rust designed for the component-based problems often seen in powertrain modeling. DESS is a text-based software package that provides a flexible framework for building and solving systems of ODEs. This allows DESS to be included as a dependency for automotive powertrain models that require a variety of solvers and solver configurations. Seven explicit ODE solver methods have been implemented in DESS: Euler’s, Heun’s, midpoint, Ralston’s, classic Runge-Kutta, Bogacki-Shampine, and Cash-Karp. These represent five fixed-step methods and two adaptive-step methods. This paper shows that the solver implementations increase accuracy and computational efficiency compared to Euler's method when modeling a system of three thermal masses in Rust. DESS also includes features designed for modeling component-based physical systems. Users can define relationships between nodes in their system, which the package then translates into a system of equations, leading to simpler and more intuitive code. In the case of a three-thermal-mass system, the user can specify node thermal properties (e.g., thermal capacitance), how nodes are interconnected, and thermal conductance between nodes rather than providing a system of equations. The core contribution from this work is an open-source, text-based Rust package with ODE solvers for automotive powertrain modeling to support cost-free, fast, and accurate simulation.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Primordial black hole formation by vacuum bubbles. Part II

The discoveries of LIGO/Virgo black holes in recent years have revitalized the study of primordial black holes. In this work we investigate a mechanism where primordial black holes are formed by vacuum bubbles that randomly nucleate during inflation through quantum tunneling. After inflation, these bubbles typically run into the ambient radiation fluid with a large Lorentz factor. In our previous work, we assumed the bubble fields are strongly coupled to the standard model particles so that the bubble wall is impermeable. Here we complete this picture by considering bubbles interacting with the fluid only through gravity. By studying the scenario in several limits, we found that black holes could form in the either subcritical or supercritical regime. Depending on the model parameters, the resulting mass spectrum of the black holes could be wide or narrow, and may develop two peaks separated by a large mass range. Finally, with different spectra, these black holes may account for the LIGO/Virgo black holes, supermassive black holes, and may play an important role in dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active learning strategy for high fidelity short-term data-driven building energy forecasting

The quality of a data-driven model is heavily dependent on the quality of data. Data from building operation often have data bias problems, which means that the data sample is collected in a way that some members of the intended data population are less likely to be included than others. Data-driven energy forecasting models built on such data hence are biased and could lead to large forecasting errors. Active learning—an effective method to defying data bias—is rarely studied or applied in the area of data-driven building energy forecasting modeling. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explores the application of active learning in data-driven building energy forecasting. The developed strategy in this paper efficiently generate informative training data within a time budget and uses block design to passively consider weather disturbances. The developed active learning strategy is applied and evaluated in both virtual and real-building testbeds against traditional data-driven methods. Via these virtual and real-building evaluation cases, we have demonstrated that the data bias problem typically exists in building operation data is resolved by applying the developed active learning strategy. Furthermore, building energy forecasting models trained from data generated from the active learning strategy have shown improved performances in both model accuracy and model extendibility perspectives. The effectiveness of the block design module is also validated to effectively consider the impact of weather conditions on active learning design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an ab initio learned model of electron deposition range in deuterium-tritium plasmas through time-dependent density functional theory calculations and machine learning

Accurate hydrodynamic modeling for laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) relies on precise calculations of the electron thermal conduction in all target materials. The nonlocal stopping range of electrons in ICF plasmas directly influences thermal conduction; yet, no first principles model exists for the electron mean free path in the conduction-zone regime. This work utilized time-dependent stochastic density-functional theory (TD-sDFT) to calculate the electron stopping power in deuterium-tritium (DT) plasmas at (ρ, T) conditions relevant to the conduction zone and the compressed shell in ICF. Using a combination of our TD-sDFT data and already established analytical models, we developed and trained an artificial neural network to create a global model for the nonlocal electron deposition range, λ E . We compared our machine-learning (ML) based model for λ E to the currently-used modified-Lee-More model in LDD radiation-hydrodynamic codes, such as lilac, and saw an overall decrease in the deposition range. To understand the effects of λ E on LDD ICF implosion dynamics, we implemented the ML-based model into lilac; specifically, we looked at designs consistent with a current experiment on the OMEGA laser and for a newly designed LDD-ICF target for the future OMEGA-Next facility. In both cases, we saw an overall drop in predicted ablation pressure, peak areal density, and neutron yield due to the reduced thermal conduction (smaller λ E ) in DT plasmas. Comparisons with the experiment on OMEGA are also made.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Λ polarization from vortex rings as the medium response for jet thermalization

We performed a systematic study on the formation of vorticity rings as the process for jet thermalization in the medium created in high-energy nuclear collisions. In this work, we expanded our previous analysis to a more realistic framework by considering noncentral events and fluctuations in the initial condition. We simulate the formation and evolution of the flow vortex structure in a relativistic viscous hydrodynamic model and study the sensitivity of the proposed “ring observable” (ℛ$^{𝑡}_{Λ}$) that can be measured experimentally through the polarization of Λ hyperons. We show that this observable is robust with respect to fluctuating initial conditions to capture the jet-induced vortex flow signal and further study its dependence on different model parameters, such as the jet's velocity, position, the fluid's shear viscosity, and the collision centrality. The proposed observable is associated with the formation of vorticity in a quark-gluon plasma, showing that the measurement of particle polarization can be a powerful tool to probe different properties of jet-medium interactions and to understand better the polarization induced by the transverse and longitudinal expansions of the medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electronic effects in radiation-induced collision cascades in nickel

The accurate treatment of electronic effects in multi-million-atom simulations of radiation-induced collision cascades is crucial for reliable predictions of primary radiation damage. In this work, we explore the fidelity of a recently developed two-temperature molecular dynamics model implementing an electron density-dependent coupling of electronic and atomic subsystems for cascade simulations in nickel. We show that the parameter-free model realistically captures the instantaneous energy losses during all stages of the highly nonequilibrium cascade process. Our simulations predict two distinct coupling regimes, corresponding to the rapid energy losses through electronic stopping in the early stages of the cascade and to the slow equilibration through the electron-phonon coupling mechanism in the later stages, without the use of separate models or coupling terms. The intermediate stage of the cascade dynamics displays a complex energy transfer between the subsystems, which cannot be interpreted by comparison to either electronic stopping or electron-phonon coupling theories. We therefore compare the predicted atomic mixing, which is sensitive to the energy losses during the intermediate cascade stage, with experimental ion beam mixing measurements. We find good agreement with the experiments, validating the coupling model for the intermediate stage of the cascade. Predictions of final defect numbers and cluster sizes are found in line with the results from conventional electronic stopping-based methods, while significantly reducing the theoretical uncertainty in the outcomes of conventional models stemming from arbitrary choices of thresholds for different coupling terms. Our results represent a notable improvement in cascade damage predictions in nickel, providing validation of the electron density-dependent coupling model for radiation damage simulations in general. The results lead us to propose an interpretation of the electronic energy losses in the intermediate regime of velocities, where we find an effectively nonlinear dissipation.

Crystal defects↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data used in manuscript "Quantifying Subsurface Flow and Solute Transport in a Snowmelt-recharged Hillslope with Multiyear Water Balance", submitted to Water Resources Research on 5-26-2022

Data in this package were used to calculate subsurface flow and solute (specifically dissolved nitrogen) transport in the Pumphouse Lower Montane (PLM) hillslope. These data are included in separate CSV files associated with each figure presented in the manuscript. The files describe site locations and elevations, weather data (air temperatures and precipitation), modeled evapotranspiration, time dependent groundwater elevations, calculated annual subsurface flow, hydraulic conductivity values, time trends in subsurface flow within different zones, pore water concentrations of total dissolve nitrogen (TDN), rates of TDN transport, soil water matric potentials following snowmelt, soil water contents during drainage, and evapotranspiration calculated by soil water mass balance versus by CLM4 model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics modeling of printed surface acoustic wave thermometers

Surface acoustic wave (SAW) transducers are a class of sensors and actuators that operate on the fundamental principle of piezoelectricity. Aerosol jet printing and other additive manufacturing techniques have resulted in the low-cost fabrication of low-power and small-footprint SAW devices that are suitable for sensing in high-temperature and radioactive environments. In this work, we developed a series of temperature-dependent finite element models for a SAW transducer consisting of printed silver interdigitated transducers (IDTs) deposited onto piezoelectric lithium niobate. Modeling accuracy was evaluated experimentally from room temperature to 200 °C using an aerosol-jet-printed SAW thermometer. A time-domain study enabled visualization of the wave propagation and successfully guided the denoising of the scattering parameter measurement. Additionally, frequency-domain models using traditional modal analysis or the unique port boundary condition feature in COMSOL Multiphysics accurately predicted the temperature-driven natural frequency drift in the SAW thermometer. The finite element models developed in this study serve to facilitate the computer-aided design of future SAW transducers for applications in harsh environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Getting Warmer: IceCube Nears Freeze Out

IceCube has recently detected a diffuse population of high-energy neutrinos arising from the Milky Way. We use this high-significance detection to place new limits on dark matter (DM) annihilation to neutrinos with two complementary approaches. The first method uses the background-subtracted Galactic longitude distribution of shower events to place a conservative bound on the DM annihilation cross section that does not rely on any assumed Galactic cosmic ray emission model; the resulting limits on the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section improve upon existing bounds by factors of a few. The second method uses the template-dependent neutrino energy spectra from the Inner Galaxy, inferred under different Galactic cosmic ray emission models. This complementary approach shows that the inferred Galactic neutrino intensities are already sensitive to DM contributions near the thermal-relic benchmark for a range of TeV-scale DM masses, though this comparison is more model-dependent. Our results demonstrate that measurements of diffuse Galactic neutrino emission can be used as a powerful probe of DM annihilation into neutrinos. Future observations with IceCube-Gen2 and KM3NeT will substantially extend this sensitivity, potentially allowing a decisive test of the thermal freeze-out mechanism with Galactic neutrino observations.

Mukhopadhyay, Mainak [Fermilab; Chicago U., KICP; ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Important role of stratospheric injection height for the distribution and radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires

More than 1 Tg smoke aerosol was emitted into the atmosphere by the exceptional 2019–2020 southeastern Australian wildfires. Triggered by the extreme fire heat, several deep pyroconvective events carried the smoke directly into the stratosphere. Once there, smoke aerosol remained airborne considerably longer than in lower atmospheric layers. The thick plumes traveled eastward, thereby being distributed across the high and mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, enhancing the atmospheric opacity. Due to the increased atmospheric lifetime of the smoke plume, its radiative effect increased compared to smoke that remains in lower altitudes. Global models describing aerosol-climate impacts lack adequate descriptions of the emission height of aerosols from intense wildfires. Here, we demonstrate, by a combination of aerosol-climate modeling and lidar observations, the importance of the representation of those high-altitude fire smoke layers for estimating the atmospheric energy budget. Through observation-based input into the simulations, the Australian wildfire emissions by pyroconvection are explicitly prescribed to the lower stratosphere in different scenarios. Based on our simulations, the 2019–2020 Australian fires caused a significant top-of-atmosphere (TOA) hemispheric instantaneous direct radiative forcing signal that reached a magnitude comparable to the radiative forcing induced by anthropogenic absorbing aerosol. Up to +0.50 W m -2 instantaneous direct radiative forcing was modeled at TOA, averaged for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.25 W m -2 globally) from January to March 2020 under all-sky conditions. At the surface, on the other hand, an instantaneous solar radiative forcing of up to -0.81 W m -2 was found for clear-sky conditions, with the respective estimates depending on the model configuration and subject to the model uncertainties in the smoke optical properties. Since extreme wildfires are expected to occur more frequently in the rapidly changing climate, our findings suggest that high-altitude wildfire plumes must be adequately considered in climate projections in order to obtain reasonable estimates of atmospheric energy budget changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rate-Dependent Dynamic Cylindrical Cavity Expansion Equations for Conical- and Ogival-Nosed Projectiles

The dynamic cylindrical cavity expansion of rate-dependent materials was previously derived by Warren to examine the effects of strain-rate sensitivity on the radial stress acting on a perforating projectile. However, the equations presented were largely analytical and were not further applied to predict the ballistic performance of ductile target plates. The current work expands on Warren’s derivation to model the dynamics of conical and ogival geometries, and the rate-dependent model is compared to prior experimental results of 7.62-mm APM2 rounds impacting 6061-T6511 aluminum alloy plates. The results show that including rate effects improves the ballistic performance prediction, even for a marginally strain-rate sensitive material such as Al6061-T651. However, existing semi-empirical variations of the cavity expansion model can provide the same degree of accuracy if target material rate-sensitivity parameters are not readily available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗