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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying air quality co-benefits to industrial decarbonization: the local Air Emissions Tracking Atlas

Many decarbonization technologies have the added co-benefit of reducing short-lived climate pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), creating a unique opportunity for identifying strategies that promote both climate change solutions and opportunities for air quality improvement. However, stakeholders and decision-makers may struggle to quantify how these co-benefits will impact public health for the communities most affected by industrial air pollution. To address this problem, the LOCal Air Emissions Tracking Atlas (LOCAETA) fills a data availability and analysis gap by providing estimated air quality benefits from industrial decarbonization options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). These co-benefits are calculated using an algorithm that connects disparate datasets that separately report greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants at U.S. industrial facilities. Version 1.0 of LOCAETA displays the estimated primary PM 2.5 emission reduction co-benefits from additional pretreatment equipment for CCS on industrial and power facilities across the state of Louisiana, as well as the potential for VOC and NH 3 generation. The emission reductions are presented in the tool alongside facility pollutant emissions information and relevant air quality, environmental, demographic, and public health datasets, such as air toxics cancer risk, satellite and in situ pollutant measurements, and population vulnerability metrics. LOCAETA enables regulators, policymakers, environmental justice communities, and industrial and commercial users to compare and contrast quantifiable public health benefits due to air quality impacts from various climate change mitigation strategies using a free and publicly-available tool. Additional pollutant reductions can be calculated using the same methodology and will be available in future versions of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Epidemiological Investigation of a Mortality Event in a Translocated Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) Population in Northwest Florida

Nokuse Plantation, a 22,055 ha private conservation preserve in northwest Florida, is a recipient site for gopher tortoises translocated from development sites in Florida. Since 2006, Nokuse has received over 5,000 tortoises from multiple development sites. During 2013–2015, 52 tortoises were found sick (n = 14) or dead (n = 38) in multiple soft-release enclosures in which tortoises consistently exhibited clinical signs, with additional sick (n = 5) and dead (n = 5) tortoises presenting similarly during 2016–2017. When found alive, tortoises behaved abnormally (e.g., frequently out of burrows during cold weather, pacing along enclosure fencing), appeared emaciated, were lethargic, and had developed redness under plastron scutes. Similar numbers of male (n = 28) and female (n = 32) tortoises were recovered along with two of unidentified sex, including mainly adults (n = 59) and three subadults. Physical examination, blood analysis, and other diagnostics were indicative of starvation and dehydration. Most sick tortoises provided with supportive care recovered. Necropsy findings generally confirmed starvation, with no evidence of infectious pathogens or contaminants. There were no apparent differences in quality of habitat, plant community, or soil or water among affected and unaffected enclosures. Botanical surveys indicated adequate forage quality and quantity, with no poisonous exotic or native plants detected. No land management practices changed prior to this event. Analysis of epidemiological data and demographic factors from before and during this mortality event identified initial density of tortoises in the enclosures as exerting the strongest influence on detection of tortoise morbidity and mortality. We believe that the stress associated with mixing tortoises from different populations and at higher densities during translocation impacted an individual tortoise’s ability to obtain or absorb adequate nutrients from foraging, ultimately leading to a wasting condition consistent with starvation. Based on our findings, we recommend a maximum of 3 gopher tortoises per ha in soft-release enclosures for translocation, but further research is warranted to investigate the complexity of stress and social pressures associated with translocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Population Structure of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Columbia River Inferred from Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms

White sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) are the largest freshwater fish in North America, with reproducing populations in the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Fraser, and Columbia River Basins. Of these, the Columbia River is the largest, but it is also highly fragmented by hydroelectric dams, and many segments are characterized by declining abundance and persistent recruitment failure. Efforts to conserve and supplement these fish requires an understanding of their spatial genetic structure. Here, we assembled a large set of samples from throughout the Columbia River Basin, along with representative collections from adjacent basins, and genotyped them using a panel of 325 single-nucleotide markers. Results from individual- and group-based analyses of these data indicate that white sturgeon in the uppermost Columbia River Basin, in the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers, are the most distinct, while the remaining populations downstream in the basin can be described as a genetic gradient consistent with an isolation-by-distance effect. Notably, the population in the lowest reaches of the Columbia River is more distinct from the middle or upper reaches than from outside basins, and suggests historically a higher or more recent gene exchange through coastal routes than with populations in the interior Columbia Basin. Nonetheless, proximal reaches were generally only marginally or non-significantly divergent, suggesting that transplanting larvae or juveniles from nearby sources poses relatively little risk of outbreeding depression. Indeed, we inferred examples of dispersal between reaches via close-kin mark-recapture and genetic mark-recapture that indicate movement between nearby reaches is not unusual. Samples from the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers exhibited notably lower genetic diversity than the remaining samples as a result of population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and/or historical divergence. Conservation actions, such as supplementation, are underway to maintain population viability and will require balanced efforts to increase demographic abundance while maintaining genetic diversity.

Willis, Stuart C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficacy of Hair Total Mercury Content as a Biomarker of Methylmercury Exposure to Communities in the Area of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Madre de Dios, Peru

Total mercury content (THg) in hair is an accepted biomarker for chronic dietary methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. In artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) communities, the validity of this biomarker is questioned because of the potential for contamination from inorganic mercury. As mining communities may have both inorganic and organic mercury exposures, the efficacy of the hair-THg biomarker needs to be evaluated, particularly as nations begin population exposure assessments under their commitments to the Minamata Convention. We sought to validate the efficacy of hair THg for public health monitoring of MeHg exposures for populations living in ASGM communities. We quantified both THg and MeHg contents in hair from a representative subset of participants (N = 287) in a large, population-level mercury exposure assessment in the ASGM region in Madre de Dios (MDD), Peru. We compared population MeHg-THg correlations and %MeHg values with demographic variables including community location, sex, occupation, and nativity. We observed that hair MeHg-THg correlations were high (r > 0.7) for all communities, regardless of location or nativity. Specifically, for individuals within ASGM communities, 81% (121 of 150 total) had hair THg predominantly in the form of MeHg (i.e., >66% of THg) and reflective of dietary exposure to mercury. Furthermore, for individuals with hair THg exceeding the U.S. EPA threshold (1.0 μg/g), 88 out of 106 (83%) had MeHg as the predominant form. As a result, had urine THg solely been used for mercury exposure monitoring, approximately 59% of the ASGM population would have been misclassified as having low mercury exposure. Our results support the use of hair THg for monitoring of MeHg exposure of populations in ASGM settings where alternative biomarkers of MeHg exposure are not feasible.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Head and Neck Cancers: A Multidisciplinary Survey

Artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been introduced in various disciplines but remain rather unused in head and neck (H&N) cancers. This survey aimed to infer the current applications of and attitudes toward AI in the multidisciplinary care of H&N cancers. From November 2020 to June 2022, a web-based questionnaire examining the relationship between AI usage and professionals’ demographics and attitudes was delivered to different professionals involved in H&N cancers through social media and mailing lists. A total of 139 professionals completed the questionnaire. Only 49.7% of the respondents reported having experience with AI. The most frequent AI users were radiologists (66.2%). Significant predictors of AI use were primary specialty (V = 0.455; p < 0.001), academic qualification and age. AI’s potential was seen in the improvement of diagnostic accuracy (72%), surgical planning (64.7%), treatment selection (57.6%), risk assessment (50.4%) and the prediction of complications (45.3%). Among participants, 42.7% had significant concerns over AI use, with the most frequent being the ‘loss of control’ (27.6%) and ‘diagnostic errors’ (57.0%). This survey reveals limited engagement with AI in multidisciplinary H&N cancer care, highlighting the need for broader implementation and further studies to explore its acceptance and benefits.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do Genetic Drift and Gene Flow Affect the Geographic Distribution of Female Plants in Gynodioecious Lobelia siphilitica?

Variation in population sex ratio is particularly pronounced in gynodioecious angiosperms. Extremely high female frequencies in gynodioecious populations cannot be readily explained by selective forces alone. To assess the contributions of drift and gene flow to extreme sex-ratio variation, we documented sex ratio and population size in 92 populations of Lobelia siphilitica across its range and genotyped plants using plastid and nuclear genetic markers. Similarity in spatial patterns of genetic and demographic variables may suggest that drift and/or gene flow have contributed to population sex-ratio variation in L. siphilitica. We found strong spatial structuring of extremely high female frequencies: populations with >50% female plants are restricted to the south–central portion of the range. However, we did not detect any spatial structuring in population size nor metrics of genetic diversity, suggesting that extreme variation in female frequency is not strongly affected by drift or gene flow. Extreme sex-ratio variation is frequently observed in gynodioecious plants, but its causes are difficult to identify. Further investigation into mechanisms that create or maintain the spatial structure of sex ratios in gynodioecious species will provide much needed insight.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Barriers and Benefits: Understanding Riders’ Views on Pooled Rideshare in the U.S.

This manuscript provides actionable recommendations to enhance user satisfaction and address existing barriers regarding pooled rideshare (PR) in the United States. Despite PR’s intended benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion and cost savings, its adoption remains limited. To identify these actionable items, a U.S. nationwide survey with 5385 participants explored transportation preferences, barriers, and motivators for PR use in the summer of 2021. First, two factor analyses were conducted. The first factor analysis identified the five factors associated with one’s willingness to consider PR (time/cost, traffic/environment, safety, privacy, and service experience). The second factor analysis revealed the four factors related to ways to optimize one’s PR experience (comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety). Privacy concerns, for instance, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. A structural equation model evaluated the relationships among these nine key factors influencing PR usage to develop the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM). The privacy, safety, trust service, and convenience factors each had a significant large effect (Cohen’s f 2 > 0.35) on the model. PRAM was extended using multigroup analyses to reveal the nuanced impact of 16 demographics, including gender, generation, rideshare experience, etc., highlighting the need for tailored strategies to improve PR acceptance through the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMAs). Multiple workshops were held with diverse audiences to translate the team’s findings to date into 84 actionable recommendations, categorized across topical areas like safety, routing, driver and passenger selection, user education, etc. These findings are a foundation for a future study to determine which items resonate with different user groups. In the meantime, the actional items serve as a user-driven resource for policymakers, transportation network companies, and researchers, offering a roadmap to potential improvements to PR services to address existing concerns with the goal of increasing the usage of PR.

actionable recommendations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Two Views of the Radius Gap and the Role of Light Curve Fitting

Recently, several groups have resolved a gap that bifurcates planets between the size of Earth and Neptune into two populations. The location and depth of this feature is an important signature of the physical processes that form and sculpt planets. In particular, planets residing in the radius gap are valuable probes of these processes as they may be undergoing the final stages of envelope loss. Here, we discuss two views of the radius gap by Fulton & Petigura (F18) and Van Eylen et al. (V18). In V18, the gap is wider and more devoid of planets. This is due, in part, to V18's more precise measurements of planet radius R{sub p}. Thanks to Gaia, uncertainties in stellar radii R{sub ⋆} are no longer the limiting uncertainties in determining R{sub p} for the majority of Kepler planets; instead, errors in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} dominate. V18's analysis incorporated short-cadence photometry along with constraints on mean stellar density that enabled more accurate determinations of R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆}. In the F18 analysis, less accurate R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} blurs the boundary the radius gap. The differences in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} are largest at high impact parameter (b≳0.8) and often exceed 10%. This motivates excluding high-b planets from demographic studies, but identifying such planets from long-cadence photometry alone is challenging. We show that transit duration can serve as an effective proxy, and we leverage this information to enhance the contrast between the super-Earth and sub-Neptune populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets

The chemical abundances of planet-hosting stars offer a glimpse into the composition of planet-forming environments. To further understand this connection, we make the first ever measurement of the correlation between planet occurrence and chemical abundances for ten different elements (C, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, and Ni). Leveraging data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia to derive precise stellar parameters (${\sigma }_{{R}_{\star }}\approx 2.3 \% $, ${\sigma }_{{M}_{\star }}\approx 4.5 \% $) for a sample of 1018 Kepler Objects of Interest, we construct a sample of well-vetted Kepler planets with precisely measured radii (${\sigma }_{{R}_{p}}\approx 3.4 \% $). After controlling for biases in the Kepler detection pipeline and the selection function of the APOGEE survey, we characterize the relationship between planet occurrence and chemical abundance as the number density of nuclei of each element in a star's photosphere raised to a power, β. varies by planet type, but is consistent within our uncertainties across all ten elements. For hot planets (P = 1–10 days), an enhancement in any element of 0.1 dex corresponds to an increased occurrence of ≈20% for super-Earths (Rp = 1–1.9 R⊕) and ≈60% for sub-Neptunes (Rp = 1.9–4 R⊕). Trends are weaker for warm (P = 10–100 days) planets of all sizes and for all elements, with the potential exception of sub-Saturns (Rp = 4–8 R⊕). Finally, we conclude this work with a caution to interpreting trends between planet occurrence and stellar age due to degeneracies caused by Galactic chemical evolution and make predictions for planet occurrence rates in nearby open clusters to facilitate demographics studies of young planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forward Modeling Populations of Flares from Tidal Disruptions of Stars by Supermassive Black Holes

Detections of the tidal disruption flares (TDFs) of stars by supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are rapidly accumulating as optical surveys improve. These detections may provide constraints on SMBH demographics, stellar dynamics, and stellar evolution in galaxies. To maximize this scientific impact, we require a better understanding of how astrophysical parameters interact with survey selection effects in setting the properties of detected flares. In this study, we develop a framework for modeling the distributions of optical TDF detections in surveys across attributes of the host galaxies and the flares themselves. This model folds in effects of the stellar disruption rate in each galaxy, the flare luminosity and temperature distributions, the effects of obscuration and reddening by dust in the host galaxy, and survey selection criteria. We directly apply this model to the sample of TDFs detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility, and find that the overall flare detection rate is in line with simple theoretical expectation. The model can also reproduce the distribution of total stellar mass and redshift of the host galaxies, but fails to match all details of the detected flares, such as their luminosity and temperature distributions. We also find that dust obscuration likely plays an important role in suppressing the TDF detection rate in star-forming galaxies. While we do not find that the unusual preference of TDFs to have hosts in post-starburst galaxies in the "green valley" can be entirely explained by selection effects, our model can help to quantify the true rate enhancement in those galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Air Quality Changes after Implementation of Mitigation Measures during a Pandemic: A Scoping Review of Literature in the United States

Traffic-related emissions continue to be a significant source of air pollution in the United States (US) and around the globe. Evidence has shown that previous policies implemented to restrict-traffic flows have affected air pollution levels. Thus, mitigation strategies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic that modified population-level mobility patterns provide a unique opportunity to study air pollution change across the US. For instance, to slow the spread of the pandemic, state and local governments started implementing various mitigation actions, including stay-at-home directives, social distancing measures, school closures, and travel restrictions. This scoping review aimed to summarize the existing evidence about how air quality changed through mitigation practices throughout the pandemic in the US. We found 66 articles that fit our inclusion criteria. Generally, the consolidated results revealed that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) decreased across the country. Studies observed mixed directions and magnitudes of change for fine and coarse particulate matter (PM 2.5 , PM 10 ), ozone (O 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Few articles tried to explain this notable heterogeneity in air quality changes by associating contextual factors, such as mobility, traffic flow, and demographic factors. However, all studies agreed that the change in air pollution was nonuniform across the US and even varied within a city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation and evaluation of the unified stomatal optimization approach in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES)

Abstract. Stomata play a central role in regulating the exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Their function is represented in land surface models (LSMs) by conductance models. The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a dynamic vegetation demography model that can simulate both detailed plant demographic and physiological dynamics. To evaluate the effect of stomatal conductance model formulation on forest water and carbon fluxes in FATES, we implemented an optimality-based stomatal conductance model – the Medlyn (MED) model – that simulates the relationship between photosynthesis (A) and stomatal conductance to water vapor (gsw) as an alternative to the FATES default Ball–Woodrow–Berry (BWB) model. To evaluate how the behavior of FATES is affected by stomatal model choice, we conducted a model sensitivity analysis to explore the response of gsw to climate forcing, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit in the air (VPDa). We found that modeled gsw values varied greatly between the BWB and MED formulations due to the different default stomatal slope parameters (g1). After harmonizing g1 and holding the stomatal intercept parameter (g0) constant for both model formulations, we found that the divergence in modeled gsw was limited to conditions when the VPDa exceeded 1.5 kPa. We then evaluated model simulation results against measurements from a wet evergreen forest in Panama. Results showed that both the MED and BWB model formulations were able to capture the magnitude and diurnal changes of measured gsw and A but underestimated both by about 30 % when the soil was predicted to be very dry. Comparison of modeled soil water content from FATES to a reanalysis product showed that FATES captured soil drying well, but translation of drying soil to modeled physiology reduced the models' ability to match observations. Our study suggests that the parameterization of stomatal conductance models and current model response to drought are the critical areas for improving model simulation of CO2 and water fluxes in tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗