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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint Management and Optimization of Residential Natural Gas and Electricity Distribution Networks Coupled via Fuel Cells

The attractive features of natural gas as well as the growing electric power demand worldwide have created increasing interest in natural-gas-based distributed generation applications for electric distribution networks. Here, this paper investigates the interdependency between a residential natural gas network and an electric distribution network that are linked together via fuel cells. The modeling of the natural gas network is introduced first, and then the algorithm for gas flow study is presented. The optimal placement and sizing of fuel cell based distributed generation systems are formulated to minimize the losses in both the natural gas network and the electric distribution grid, subject to the constraints imposed by both networks. In addition, a probabilistic model for both gas and electricity demands is developed based on historical electricity and natural gas demand data. A K-means clustering method is used to determine the hourly load states to solve the joint probabilistic optimization problem. Simulation studies are carried out on an integrated system consisting of the IEEE 69-bus distribution network and a radial 27-node natural gas network to verify the developed optimization model and the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model to inform the expansion of hydrogen distribution infrastructure

A growing hydrogen economy requires new hydrogen distribution infrastructure to link geographically distributed hubs of supply and demand. The Hydrogen Optimization with Deployment of Infrastructure (HOwDI) Model helps meet this requirement. The model is a spatially resolved optimization framework that determines location-specific hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure to cost-optimally meet a specified location-based demand. While these results are useful in understanding hydrogen infrastructure development, there is uncertainty in some costs that the model uses for inputs. Thus, the project team took the modeling effort a step further and developed a Monte Carlo methodology to help manage uncertainties. Seven scenarios were run using existing infrastructure and new demand in Texas exploring different policy and tax approaches. The inclusion of tax credits increased the percentage of runs that could deliver hydrogen at <$\$4$ /kg from 31% to 77% and decreased the average dispensed cost from $\$4.35$ /kg to $\$3.55$ /kg. However, even with tax credits there are still some runs where unabated SMR is deployed to meet new demand as the low-carbon production options are not competitive. Every scenario, except for the zero-carbon scenario (without tax credits), resulted in at least 20% of the runs meeting the $\$4$ /kg dispensed fuel cost target. This indicates that multiple pathways exist to deliver $\$4$ /kg hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real Fuel Modeling for Gasoline Compression Ignition Engine

Increasing regulatory demand for efficiency has led to development of novel combustion modes such as HCCI, GCI and RCCI for gasoline light duty engines. In order to realize HCCI as a compression ignition combustion mode system, in-cylinder compression temperatures must be elevated to reach the autoignition point of the premixed fuel/air mixture. This should be co-optimized with appropriate fuel formulations that can autoignite at such temperatures. CFD combustion modeling is used to model the auto ignition of gasoline fuel under compression ignition conditions. Using the fully detailed fuel mechanism consisting of thousands of components in the CFD simulations is computationally expensive. To overcome this challenge, the real fuel is represented by few major components of create a surrogate fuel mechanism. In this study, 9 variations of gasoline fuel sets were chosen as candidates to run in HCCI combustion mode. A study detailing the development of the gasoline real fuel model was performed and various surrogates for gasoline fuel were investigated. The gasoline real fuel model will be used in subsequent CFD modelling activities for the development of an advanced mixed mode combustion system as part of the Department of Energy funded project DE-EE0008478.

Gasoline Compression Ignition, real fuel modeling,↗
NASA NTRS1991

Hypersonic Shock/Boundary-Layer Interaction Database

Turbulence modeling is generally recognized as the major problem obstructing further advances in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A closed solution of the governing Navier-Stokes equations for turbulent flows of practical consequence is still far beyond grasp. At the same time, the simplified models of turbulence which are used to achieve closure of the Navier-Stokes equations are known to be rigorously incorrect. While these models serve a definite purpose, they are inadequate for the general prediction of hypersonic viscous/inviscid interactions, mixing problems, chemical nonequilibria, and a range of other phenomena which must be predicted in order to design a hypersonic vehicle computationally. Due to the complexity of turbulence, useful new turbulence models are synthesized only when great expertise is brought to bear and considerable intellectual energy is expended. Although this process is fundamentally theoretical, crucial guidance may be gained from carefully-executed basic experiments. Following the birth of a new model, its testing and validation once again demand comparisons with data of unimpeachable quality. This report concerns these issues which arise from the experimental aspects of hypersonic modeling and represents the results of the first phase of an effort to develop compressible turbulence models.

Settles, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling starch dynamics from seasonal variations of photosynthesis, growth and respiration

Abstract Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) buffer differences in plant carbon supply (photosynthesis) and demand (respiration, growth, etc.), but the regulation of their dynamics remains unresolved. Seasonal variations in NSCs are well-documented, but differences in the time-average, amplitude, phase and other characteristics across ecosystems and functional types lack explanation; furthermore, observed dynamics do not always match expectations. The failure to match observed and expected dynamics has stimulated debate on whether carbon supply or demand drives NSC dynamics. To gain insight into how carbon supply and demand drive seasonal NSC dynamics, we derive a simple model of NSC dynamics based on carbon mass balance and linearizing the NSC demand to determine how supply-driven and demand-driven seasonal NSC dynamics differ. We find that supply-driven and demand-driven dynamics yield distinct timings of seasonal extrema, and supply overrides demand when carbon supply is low in winter (e.g., at high latitudes). Our results also suggest that NSC dynamics often lag changes carbon mass balance. We also predict differences in NSC dynamics across mass, suggesting that saplings are more dynamic and respond more quickly to the environment than mature trees. Our findings suggest that substrate-dependent regulation with environmental variation is sufficient to generate complex NSC dynamics.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design trade-offs for residential retail tariffs and virtual power plants

Retail rate design and virtual power plants (VPPs) have the potential to shift customer electricity demand and provide economic benefits to utility customers. As the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads increases, retail tariff and program design can impact Bonbright's rate design principles including affordability, fairness, and economic efficiency. We model the effects of residential retail rates and VPP programs on power system costs in Massachusetts under a potential future system with high renewable energy and DER adoption. We model interactions among retail rate design, demand flexibility, and utility costs and identify trade-offs across different rate designs and VPP programs. We estimate that time-of-use (TOU) rates and VPP programs designed to avoid critical peak rates can lower overall system costs by 3.5 %-4.8 %. These lower costs translate to lower electricity bills for 62 %-91 % of customers, depending on the scenario. Although TOU rates with a critical peak VPP program can benefit all customer segments and are economically efficient, a VPP program with flat rates leads to the lowest overall bills for customers. We find that customers with loads that align with peak demand and who participate in critical peak VPP programs can underpay for their contribution to utility costs and shift costs to other customers. While our assumptions about mandatory TOU and/or critical peak pricing likely impact the magnitude of the results, the results highlight the trade-offs of these tariffs and programs and the importance of tariff and program design as demand becomes more flexible and responsive.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent advances and challenges in optimization models for expansion planning of power systems and reliability optimization

Optimization models for expansion planning of power systems aim to determine capacities, investment timing, and location of power systems to satisfy the power demands while minimizing the total cost. The models have become complex in recent years to reflect both regulations on conventional energy sources and the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). This paper reviews the basic concepts and optimization models for expansion planning of power systems. We first explain the definition and features of generation expansion planning (GEP), transmission expansion planning (TEP), and generation and transmission expansion planning (GTEP). To address the computational challenges of large-scale expansion planning problems, we review several simplifications including temporal and spatial aggregation, and decomposition methods. This paper also addresses power system reliability defined as the probability of satisfying the load demand while withstanding failures of components. Finally, the goal of this paper is to provide a research overview, discuss trends in expansion planning of power systems, and suggest directions for future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor Performance Using Flow-Cytometry-Derived High and Low Nucleic Acid Content Cells

Having a tool to monitor the microbial abundances rapidly and to utilize the data to predict the reactor performance would facilitate the operation of an anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR). This study aims to achieve the aforementioned scenario by developing a linear regression model that incorporates a time-lagging mode. The model uses low nucleic acid (LNA) cell numbers and the ratio of high nucleic acid (HNA) to LNA cells as an input data set. First, the model was trained using data sets obtained from a 35 L pilot-scale AnMBR. The model was able to predict the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency and methane production 3.5 days in advance. Subsequent validation of the model using flow cytometry (FCM)-derived data (at time t – 3.5 days) obtained from another biologically independent reactor did not exhibit any substantial difference between predicted and actual measurements of reactor performance at time t. Further cell sorting, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and correlation analysis partly attributed this accurate prediction to HNA genera (e.g., Anaerovibrio and unclassified Bacteroidales) and LNA genera (e.g., Achromobacter, Ochrobactrum, and unclassified Anaerolineae). In summary, our findings suggest that HNA and LNA cell routine enumeration, along with the trained model, can derive a fast approach to predict the AnMBR performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.

Ou, Shawn↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗
NASA NTRS1998

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS2006

Adaptive Modeling, Engineering Analysis and Design of Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

This paper describes initial progress towards the development and enhancement of a set of software tools for rapid adaptive modeling, and conceptual design of advanced aerospace vehicle concepts. With demanding structural and aerodynamic performance requirements, these high fidelity geometry based modeling tools are essential for rapid and accurate engineering analysis at the early concept development stage. This adaptive modeling tool was used for generating vehicle parametric geometry, outer mold line and detailed internal structural layout of wing, fuselage, skin, spars, ribs, control surfaces, frames, bulkheads, floors, etc., that facilitated rapid finite element analysis, sizing study and weight optimization. The high quality outer mold line enabled rapid aerodynamic analysis in order to provide reliable design data at critical flight conditions. Example application for structural design of a conventional aircraft and a high altitude long endurance vehicle configuration are presented. This work was performed under the Conceptual Design Shop sub-project within the Efficient Aerodynamic Shape and Integration project, under the former Vehicle Systems Program. The project objective was to design and assess unconventional atmospheric vehicle concepts efficiently and confidently. The implementation may also dramatically facilitate physics-based systems analysis for the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Mission. In addition to providing technology for design and development of unconventional aircraft, the techniques for generation of accurate geometry and internal sub-structure and the automated interface with the high fidelity analysis codes could also be applied towards the design of vehicles for the NASA Exploration and Space Science Mission projects.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Experience in distributed parameter modeling of the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) structure

The Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configuration is used to compare exact and approximate solutions of the partial differential equations which define its structural dynamics. The need for a proof model for evaluating competing control laws demands that solutions be generated which not only exhibit accurate modal characteristics, but precise static deflections as well. Because precise pointing is required, the motion of the end bodies of the Shuttle-attached antenna must be known with great accuracy. Modal models are attractive because of their stable solutions but require hundreds of modes to obtain a static deflection accuracy of only one percent. Although proportional damping in bending agrees well with experimental results using the SCOLE experimental apparatus, modes which involve both torsion and bending differ significantly from proportional damping. A lumped mass model is used to generate exact static deflections, but only approximate modal characteristics. Asymptotic solutions to the distributed parameter system approximate very accurately the modal characteristics at high mode numbers. Ways are examined for refining the approximate solutions by applying a first-order variation and by employing singular perturbation techniques which are usually limited to ordinary differential equations. The most accurate solutions of the distributed parameter model of SCOLE are obtained by combining exact and asymptotic solutions.

Taylor, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated power-following control for nuclear thermal propulsion startup and shutdown using MOOSE-based applications

This paper describes an investigation of various automated control strategies applied to a full-core multiphysics Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 model of a prototypical nuclear thermal propulsion system. In all cases, control is achieved by actuating control drums based on the demanded power and predicted quantities from the numerical model. One key finding is that hybrid proportional integral derivative controllers – a novel type of controller that uses both power and reactivity predicted signals – can demonstrate a level of performance rivaling that of period-generated control. The former requires parameter tuning, while the latter mostly necessitates providing reactivity coefficients and temperature rates of change, which could be very challenging to accurately measure in real-time. In addition, decay heat plays an important role in determining cooling requirements during cooldown phases. A decay heat model, accounting for burn time and throttling, was derived, and is incorporated within the model to simulate the steady-state and shutdown phases and satisfyingly follow the power demand. However, temperature overshoots and non-constant specific impulse during throttling will necessitate further improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗