Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗
NASA NTRS2001

CFD Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Injectors

Detailed design issues associated with liquid rocket engine injectors and combustion chamber operation require CFD methodology which simulates highly three-dimensional, turbulent, vaporizing, and combusting flows. The primary utility of such simulations involves predicting multi-dimensional effects caused by specific injector configurations. SECA, Inc. and Engineering Sciences, Inc. have been developing appropriate computational methodology for NASA/MSFC for the past decade. CFD tools and computers have improved dramatically during this time period; however, the physical submodels used in these analyses must still remain relatively simple in order to produce useful results. Simulations of clustered coaxial and impinger injector elements for hydrogen and hydrocarbon fuels, which account for real fluid properties, is the immediate goal of this research. The spray combustion codes are based on the FDNS CFD code' and are structured to represent homogeneous and heterogeneous spray combustion. The homogeneous spray model treats the flow as a continuum of multi-phase, multicomponent fluids which move without thermal or velocity lags between the phases. Two heterogeneous models were developed: (1) a volume-of-fluid (VOF) model which represents the liquid core of coaxial or impinger jets and their atomization and vaporization, and (2) a Blob model which represents the injected streams as a cloud of droplets the size of the injector orifice which subsequently exhibit particle interaction, vaporization, and combustion. All of these spray models are computationally intensive, but this is unavoidable to accurately account for the complex physics and combustion which is to be predicted, Work is currently in progress to parallelize these codes to improve their computational efficiency. These spray combustion codes were used to simulate the three test cases which are the subject of the 2nd International Workshop on-Rocket Combustion Modeling. Such test cases are considered by these investigators to be very valuable for code validation because combustion kinetics, turbulence models and atomization models based on low pressure experiments of hydrogen air combustion do not adequately verify analytical or CFD submodels which are necessary to simulate rocket engine combustion. We wish to emphasize that the simulations which we prepared for this meeting are meant to test the accuracy of the approximations used in our general purpose spray combustion models, rather than represent a definitive analysis of each of the experiments which were conducted. Our goal is to accurately predict local temperatures and mixture ratios in rocket engines; hence predicting individual experiments is used only for code validation. To replace the conventional JANNAF standard axisymmetric finite-rate (TDK) computer code 2 for performance prediction with CFD cases, such codes must posses two features. Firstly, they must be as easy to use and of comparable run times for conventional performance predictions. Secondly, they must provide more detailed predictions of the flowfields near the injector face. Specifically, they must accurately predict the convective mixing of injected liquid propellants in terms of the injector element configurations.

Farmer, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Strong-QCD Regime Measurement of the Proton’s Spin Structure

The theory of the strong force, Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) remains one of the most important ways to understand the fundamental properties of ordinary matter. However, at low momentum transfer Q 2 , in the regime where the strong force becomes extremely strong, our understanding of QCD for ordinary nucleons becomes hazy. Several cutting edge theories such as Chiral Perturbation Theory (χPT) and Lattice QCD have provided valuable predictions in this regime, but Lattice QCD has not yet extended predictions of many important quantities to this kinematic region, and Chiral Perturbation Theory has faced several important disagreements with experimental data for the neutron over the last several decades. It is therefore of extreme importance to have a benchmark of experimental data in the low energy regime for the proton’s behavior, as a test of leading theories for the behavior of QCD in this regime. The E08-027 (g2p) experiment ran at Jefferson Lab in 2012 with the goal of collecting this valuable data, and though I was still completing my undergraduate studies at the time, I became involved in the analysis in 2015 and built on the previous work to complete it and analyze the exciting results. This experiment achieved a high precision measurement of the spin structure functions g1 and g2 for the proton, quantities which describe the internal spin structure of the proton. These measurements were taken in the valuable low Q 2 region described above, and used to extract several moments of these spin structure functions which can be directly compared to the cutting-edge predictions of Chiral Perturbation Theory. Though the experiment’s timeline was such that I didn’t have a chance to work directly on the experimental setup, I had the opportunity to acquire hands-on experience working on a polarized target at UNH which is very similar to the crucial polarized target used in the g2p experiment. Full details of the g2p experiment and my experimental work at the University of New Hampshire are presented in this thesis, as well as a detailed description of the analysis process and the exciting benchmark results, which serve as a direct test of all current and future theories of QCD in the low-Q 2 regime.

Ruth, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lepton flavor violation by three units

The conservation of lepton flavor is a prediction of the Standard Model and is still an excellent approximate symmetry despite our observation of neutrino oscillations. Lepton flavor violation by one or two units has been discussed for decades, with several dedicated experiments exploring the vast model landscape but no discoveries so far. Here, we explore operators and processes that violate at least one lepton flavor by three units and identify testable signatures. In the Standard Model effective field theory, such operators already arise at mass dimension 7 and can be tested through their contributions to Michel parameters in leptonic decays. True neutrinoless charged-lepton flavor violation arises at mass dimension 10 and can realistically only be seen in the tau decay channels 𝜏 → $𝑒⁢𝑒⁢𝑒⁢\bar{𝜇}⁢\bar{𝜇}$ or 𝜏 → $𝜇⁢𝜇⁢𝜇\bar{𝑒}\bar{𝑒}$, for example in Belle II. Testable rates for these tau decays require light new particles and subsequently predict an avalanche of remarkably clean but so-far unconstrained collider signatures.

Feynman diagrams↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretically Informed Kinetics (ThInK): Establishing a modern C 0 -C 3 mechanism for combustion modeling

In contrast to the adage “Models are to be used, not believed”, combustion kinetics models have been intended to be predictive in nature. Theoretical chemical kinetics is now understood to provide a firm foundation for the reaction parameters, thereby facilitating predictive simulations of chemical reactivity, even in regimes that are poorly characterized by chemical kinetic and/or combustion experiments. In this study, we describe a theory-informed kinetics model (ThInK) for small molecule combustion chemistry (H 2 and C 1 – C 3 species) that is based on the prodigious use of theoretical predictions for reaction rate coefficients, thermochemistry, and transport parameters. The distinct features of this kinetics model, which was developed over the course of several decades, are illustrated through simulations of flame propagation and auto-ignition.

Energy transfer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS1988

Recent Langley helicopter acoustics contributions

The helicopter acoustics program at NASA Langley has included technology for elements of noise control ranging from sources of noise to receivers of noise. The scope of Langley contributions for about the last decade is discussed. Specifically, the resolution of two certification noise quantification issues by subjective acoustics research, the development status of the helicopter system noise prediction program ROTONET are reviewed and the highlights from research on blade rotational, broadband, and blade vortex interaction noise sources are presented. Finally, research contributions on helicopter cabin (or interior) noise control are presented. A bibliography of publications from the Langley helicopter acoustics program for the past 10 years is included.

Morgan, Homer G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Turbulence modelling in CFD: Present status, future prospects

Information is given in viewgraph form for turbulence modeling in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The Eddy Viscosity Models (EVM), Algebraic Second Moment Closures (ASM), and Differential Second-Moment Closures (DSM) are considered. It is concluded that EVM's, ASM's, and DSM's will remain in use, though with a steady decline in importance of EVM's and ASM's in favor of DSM's. Improved versions of low-Re two-equation EVM's should lead to more reliable predictions of separated flows than are achievable at present. Further refinement of sub-models in second moment closures can be expected throughout this decade. There will be increasing attention given to interfacing SMC with higher order approaches such as LES, and an increased use of two-time-scale schemes providing distinct time scales for large and fairly small eddies.

Launder, Brian E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Detecting and disentangling nonlinear structure from solar flux time series

Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

First NASA Advanced Composites Technology Conference, Part 2

Presented here is a compilation of papers presented at the first NASA Advanced Composites Technology (ACT) Conference held in Seattle, Washington, from 29 Oct. to 1 Nov. 1990. The ACT program is a major new multiyear research initiative to achieve a national goal of technology readiness before the end of the decade. Included are papers on materials development and processing, innovative design concepts, analysis development and validation, cost effective manufacturing methodology, and cost tracking and prediction procedures. Papers on major applications programs approved by the Department of Defense are also included.

Davis, John G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Holographic Optical Data Storage

Although the basic idea may be traced back to the earlier X-ray diffraction studies of Sir W. L. Bragg, the holographic method as we know it was invented by D. Gabor in 1948 as a two-step lensless imaging technique to enhance the resolution of electron microscopy, for which he received the 1971 Nobel Prize in physics. The distinctive feature of holography is the recording of the object phase variations that carry the depth information, which is lost in conventional photography where only the intensity (= squared amplitude) distribution of an object is captured. Since all photosensitive media necessarily respond to the intensity incident upon them, an ingenious way had to be found to convert object phase into intensity variations, and Gabor achieved this by introducing a coherent reference wave along with the object wave during exposure. Gabor's in-line recording scheme, however, required the object in question to be largely transmissive, and could provide only marginal image quality due to unwanted terms simultaneously reconstructed along with the desired wavefront. Further handicapped by the lack of a strong coherent light source, optical holography thus seemed fated to remain just another scientific curiosity, until the field was revolutionized in the early 1960s by some major breakthroughs: the proposition and demonstration of the laser principle, the introduction of off-axis holography, and the invention of volume holography. Consequently, the remainder of that decade saw an exponential growth in research on theory, practice, and applications of holography. Today, holography not only boasts a wide variety of scientific and technical applications (e.g., holographic interferometry for strain, vibration, and flow analysis, microscopy and high-resolution imagery, imaging through distorting media, optical interconnects, holographic optical elements, optical neural networks, three-dimensional displays, data storage, etc.), but has become a prominent am advertising, and security medium as well. The evolution of holographic optical memories has followed a path not altogether different from holography itself, with several cycles of alternating interest over the past four decades. P. J. van Heerden is widely credited for being the first to elucidate the principles behind holographic data storage in a 1963 paper, predicting bit storage densities on the order of 1/lambda(sup 3) with source wavelength lambda - a fantastic capacity of nearly 1 TB/cu cm for visible light! The science and engineering of such a storage paradigm was heavily pursued thereafter, resulting in many novel hologram multiplexing techniques for dense data storage, as well as important advances in holographic recording materials. Ultimately, however, the lack of such enabling technologies as compact laser sources and high performance optical data I/O devices dampened the hopes for the development of a commercial product. After a period of relative dormancy, successful applications of holography in other arenas sparked a renewed interest in holographic data storage in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Currently, with most of the critical optoelectronic device technologies in place and the quest for an ideal holographic recording medium intensified, holography is once again considered as one of several future data storage paradigms that may answer our constantly growing need for higher-capacity and faster-access memories.

Timucin, Dogan A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Sounding Rocket Microgravity Experiments Elucidating Diffusive and Radiative Transport Effects on Flame Spread over Thermally-Thick Solids

A series of 6-minute microgravity combustion experiments of opposed flow flame spread over thermally-thick PMMA has been conducted to extend data previously reported at high opposed flows to almost two decades lower in flow. The effect of flow velocity on flame spread shows a square root power law dependence rather than the linear dependence predicted by thermal theory. The experiments demonstrate that opposed flow flame spread is viable to very low velocities and more robust than expected from the numerical model, which predicts that at very low velocities (less than 5 centimeters per second), flame spread rates fall off more rapidly as flow is reduced. It is hypothesized that the enhanced flame spread observed in the experiments may be due to three- dimensional hydrodynamic effects, which are not included in the zero-gravity, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The effect of external irradiation was found to be more complex that the model predicted over the 0-2 Watts per square centimeter range. In the experiments, the flame compensated for the increased irradiation by stabilizing farther from the surface. A surface energy balance reveals that the imposed flux was at least partially offset by a reduced conductive flux from the increased standoff distance, so that the effect on flame spread was weaker than anticipated.

Olson, Sandra L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Applied Energy and BER Smart Data Capabilities to Develop a DOE Data Fabric for Energy-Water R&D

Focal Area(s): 1) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: DOE R&D, including DOE’s Basic Energy Research (BER)’s Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) program and DOE’s applied energy research (AER) programs (EERE, FE, and NE) are producers and consumers of Earth systems datasets. This white paper focuses on the first topic area from the call in relation to how crosscutting resources and innovations from DOE’s EESSD and AER can be brought to bear to mutual benefit and more efficient energy-water, Earth system data resources through improved. The overarching challenge posed by this call focuses on how DOE can directly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to engineer a substantial (paradigm-changing) improvement in Earth System Predictability? While stemming from DOE BER’s EESSD program, this is a challenge that is faced and also being addressed by DOE’s AER programs. Over the past decade plus, FE, EERE, and NE programs have made important strides towards addressing this need. These strides are in many ways highly complementary to EESSD’s MODEX efforts. Energy water systems spanning metocean to groundwater to surface water systems all are data driven whether for basic energy or applied energy. These are remote, multi-variate, complex natural, and in many cases engineered, systems. Key needs and challenges of both EESSD and AER include developing data-focused tools to enhance data search and discovery to fill in knowledge gaps (address sparse data challenge), and rapidly transform datasets, including disparate and multi-source data. Leveraging DOE on-premise computing (HPC, exascale) infrastructure supports the computing-intensive algorithms required to execute these data acquisition and transformation processes to derive enriched knowledge and data, driving AI/ML and big data analytics for these systems. The opportunity lies in combining BER and AER efforts to provide a more robust, advanced, efficient and complete computing data fabric to address energy-water data acquisition and assimilation needs which currently pose significant impediments to AI/ML predictions and research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Extraction of Dynamic Inflow Models for Coaxial and Tandem Rotors from CFD Simulations

The dynamic inflow coupling with rotor/body dynamics is crucial in the analysis of stability and control law design for helicopters. Over the past several decades, finite-state inflow models for single rotor configurations in hover, forward flight, and maneuver have developed (Ref.1-3). By capturing the interference effects between rotors, the extension of pressure potential finite state inflow model has promising result for coaxial rotor configuration (Ref.4-6). Recently, the focus of the dynamic inflow modeling has shifted to tandem rotor configurations (Ref.7, 8). The development of the dynamic inflow models for tandem rotor configuration still have some limitations due to the lack of knowledge of rotor-to-rotor interference, and rotor-wake interference. Experimental methods, and computational fluid dynamics methods are commonly used to understand the rotor performance and rotor airload variations, and measure or predict inflow velocity distributions at the rotor desk. The inflow distributions are subsequently used to improve the dynamic inflow models. Tandem rotor configurations have been studied experimentally and computationally for several decades (Ref.9-12). Sweet (Ref.10) observed that a tandem rotor with 76-percent-radius overlap required 14% more induced power at hovering condition, relative to an isolated rotor of equivalent disk area. Sweet also found that, above a shaft-to-shaft distance of 1.03 diameter, the performance of the tandem rotor was nearly the same as two isolated rotors. The objective of the present study is to apply computational fluid dynamics simulations of tandem rotors for the extraction of dynamic inflow models. The extended methodology is first validated by comparing the computed induced power against test data. Subsequently inflow distributions and wake structures are analyzed.

Extraction of Dynamic Inflow Models↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Aeroacoustic Tools and Methods for Analysis of Aircraft Noise

Aircraft community noise is a significant concern due to continued growth in air traffic, increasingly stringent environmental goals, and operational limitations imposed by airport authorities. The ability to quantify aircraft noise at the source and ultimately at observers is required to develop low noise aircraft designs and flight procedures. Predicting noise at the source, accounting for scattering and propagation through the atmosphere to the observer, and assessing the perception and impact on a community requires physics-based aeroacoustics tools. Along with the analyses for aero-performance, weights and fuel burn, these tools can provide the acoustic component for aircraft MDAO (Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimization). Over the last decade significant progress has been made in advancing the aeroacoustic tools such that acoustic analyses can now be performed during the design process. One major and enabling advance has been the development of the system noise framework known as Aircraft NOise Prediction Program2 (ANOPP2). ANOPP2 is NASA's aeroacoustic toolset and is designed to facilitate the combination of acoustic approaches of varying fidelity for the analysis of noise from conventional and unconventional aircraft. The toolset includes a framework that integrates noise prediction and propagation methods into a unified system for use within general aircraft analysis software. This includes acoustic analyses, signal processing and interfaces that allow for the assessment of perception of noise on a community. ANOPP2's capability to incorporate medium fidelity shielding predictions and wind tunnel experiments into a design environment is presented. An assessment of noise from a conventional and Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft using medium fidelity scattering methods combined with noise measurements from a model-scale HWB recently placed in NASA's 14x22 wind tunnel are presented. The results are in the form of community noise metrics and auralizations.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Motter, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century

Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models for estimating contamination across different curbside collection strategies

Contaminated recyclables, which are frequently discarded as waste, pose a significant challenge to the implementation of a circular economy. These contaminated recyclables impede the circulation of resources, resulting in higher processing costs at material recovery facilities (MRFs). Over the past few decades, machine learning (ML) models such as linear regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) have evolved to provide new methods for predicting inbound contamination rates in addition to traditional statistical models. In this study, we applied ML models to predict inbound contamination rates using demographic features from 15 counties in the U.S. with different curbside collection strategies. In general, we found that ML models outperformed linear mixed models. Specifically, SVM models had the highest performance (R 2 = 0.75; mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.06), which may be due to their ability to model nonlinear relationships between features and inbound contamination rates. Further, the key predictor was population, with poverty rate being positively correlated and median age negatively correlated with inbound contamination rates. To improve the management of contamination and enhance the implementation of a circular economy, better models are needed to understand and estimate inbound contamination rates as well as identify critical factors in the present and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗