Results for “data predictive control” — Page 33

DOE OSTI2023

A general infrastructure for data-driven control design and implementation in tokamaks

A general infrastructure for tokamak controllers based on data-driven neural net models is presented. The paradigm allows for more flexible choices of both the underlying model and the desired controlled variables and targets. The system is implemented and tested on the DIII-D tokamak, enacting simultaneous pressure and temperature control via a finite-set model-predictive controller. Traditional control methods such as proportional–integral–derivative (PID) have proven effective for decoupled control tasks, but scale poorly when trying to achieve more complicated goals such as full state control. This is exactly where model-based controllers succeed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

MARS-F/K modeling of plasma response and fast ion losses due to RMP in KSTAR

Abstract The toroidal single-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681) and the MHD-kinetic hybrid code MARS-K (Liu et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 112503) are utilized to study the plasma response to the n = 1 ( n is the toroidal mode number) resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP), applied to suppress the type-I edge localized mode (ELM) in a KSTAR discharge. Both the resistive-rotating and ideal-static plasma models identify strong screening of the resonant radial field harmonics of the applied RMP due to the plasma response, and predict a strong edge-peeling response of the plasma which is consistent with the optimal ELM control coil current configuration adopted in experiment. The RMP-induced radial displacement of the plasma, computed by the resistive-rotating plasma model, agrees reasonably well with that reconstructed from the measured data in the plasma core. Taking into account the drift kinetic response of fast ions, MARS-K hybrid modeling also finds quantitative agreement of the plasma core fluid pressure perturbation with experiment. Based on the MARS-F computed plasma response, a guiding-center orbit-tracing simulation finds about 0.3% of fast ion losses due the n = 1 RMP in the KSTAR ELM control experiment considered. Most losses are associated with counter-current fast ions located near the plasma edge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and Evaluation of Velocity Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategies in Intelligent and Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

In this study, a thorough and definitive evaluation of Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategy (POEMS) applications in connected vehicles using 10 to 20 s predicted velocity is conducted for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV). The presented methodology includes synchronous datasets gathered in Fort Collins, Colorado using a test vehicle equipped with sensors to measure ego vehicle position and motion and that of surrounding objects as well as receive Infrastructure to Vehicle (I2V) information. These datasets are utilized to compare the effect of different signal categories on prediction fidelity for different prediction horizons within a POEMS framework. Multiple artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms use the collected data to output future vehicle velocity prediction models. The effects of different combinations of signals and different models on prediction fidelity in various prediction windows are explored. All of these combinations are ultimately addressed where the rubber meets the road: fuel economy (FE) enabled from POEMS. FE optimization is performed using Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a Dynamic Programming (DP) optimizer. FE improvements from MPC control at various prediction time horizons are compared to that of full-cycle DP. All FE results are determined using high-fidelity simulations of an Autonomie 2010 Toyota Prius model. The full-cycle DP POEMS provides the theoretical upper limit on fuel economy (FE) improvement achievable with POEMS but is not currently practical for real-world implementation. Perfect prediction MPC (PP-MPC) represents the upper limit of FE improvement practically achievable with POEMS. Real-Prediction MPC (RP-MPC) can provide nearly equivalent FE improvement when used with high-fidelity predictions. Constant-Velocity MPC (CV-MPC) uses a constant speed prediction and serves as a “null” POEMS. Results showed that RP-MPC, enabled by high-fidelity ego future speed prediction, led to significant FE improvement over baseline nearly matching that of PP-MPC.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗

DOE OSTI2020

Battery Equivalent Model for Residential HVAC

Flexible loads, especially heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be used to provide a battery-like service to the power grid by varying their demand up and down over a baseline. Recent work has reported that the round-trip efficiency for providing grid services with HVAC systems can be close to 1. Inspired by this promising result, in this work, we rigorously develop a battery equivalent model (BEM) for residential HVAC systems. Relying only on typically available data, the proposed BEM will bridge the observability and controllability gaps between utility companies and customers. The proposed BEM will enable the utility companies to manage the flexible HVAC devices as easy as charging/discharging the conventional energy storage devices. Validated physics-based models are used to train the BEM, whose prediction accuracy is illustrated through a simulation study.

Dong, Jin↗

DOE OSTI2023

On-Line Prediction of Resistant Force During Soil–Tool Interaction

For off-road vehicles such as excavators and wheel loaders, a large portion of energy is consumed to overcome the soil resistant force in the digging process. For optimal control of the digging tool, a high-fidelity model of the soil–tool interaction force is important to reduce energy consumption. Here, in this paper, an on-line soil resistant force prediction method is proposed. In this method, a hybrid model, which combines a physical model and a data-driven model, is used for the force prediction. In addition, the parameters of the hybrid model can be updated on-line based on real-time data. Comparisons with experimental data demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has an average error of around 12.7%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Specification for FFTF LOFWOS Test #13

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) at the Hanford site in Washington was designed by the Westinghouse Electric Corporation for the U.S. Department of Energy. FFTF was a 400 MW thermal, oxide-fueled, liquid sodium cooled test reactor, built to assist development and testing of advanced fuels and materials for fast breeder reactors. After reaching criticality in 1980, FFTF operated until 1992, providing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) with the means to test fuels, materials, and other components in a fast neutron flux environment. In July 1986, a series of unprotected transients (with the plant protection system intentionally disabled) were performed in FFTF as part of the passive safety demonstration program. Among these were thirteen loss of flow without scram (LOFWOS) tests. The goals of this program included confirming the liquid metal reactor safety margins, providing data for computer code validation, and demonstrating the inherent and passive safety benefits of specific design features. The test defined in this benchmark is LOFWOS Test #13, which was initiated at 50% power and 100% flow with the pump pony motors turned off. This benchmark specification is intended to support collaborative efforts within international partnerships on the validation of simulation tools and models in the area of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) safety. Validated tools and models are needed to evaluate SFR inherent safety characteristics and assess the impact of passive design features in response to accident initiators. Comparisons with experimental data and the results of safety analyses from other groups create unique opportunities to improve predictive capabilities of computational codes and methods for SFR modeling and simulation. The conditions of the LOFWOS test along with the feedback from FFTF’s limited free bow core restraint system and the novel passive reactivity control Gas-Expansion Modules (GEMs) pose a very challenging and uniquely valuable benchmark exercise.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 1

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024). Three distinct rounds of FSP experiments were performed by the experimental team, producing replicate samples utilizing across different nominal processing conditions (Condition IDs) listed in Table 1. The starting material on which FSP was applied was commercially available unprocessed stainless-steel type 316L material. Chosen processing conditions were very diverse, and some were intentionally chosen to produce defects. Several samples experienced tool breakage during experimentation, so a full set of three replicates was not produced for every nominal processing condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 2

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 3

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 4

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Connected and automated vehicles, driving systems, and control logic for info-rich eco-autonomous driving

A method for controlling automated driving operations of a vehicle includes determining vehicle origin and destination data, and generating a graphical representation of a road network with multiple candidate routes between the vehicle's origin and destination. Road-level data, including speed, turn angle, and/or gradient data, is received for each candidate route, and respective total energy uses are estimated for the vehicle to traverse across the candidate routes. Multiple candidate driving strategies, each having respective speed and acceleration profiles, are determined for the candidate route with the lowest estimated total energy use. An optimal candidate driving strategy is selected through a cost evaluation of the associated speed and acceleration profiles and forward movement simulations of the vehicle over a prediction horizon. Command signals are transmitted to the vehicle's steering and/or powertrain systems to execute control operations based on the optimal driving strategy and the candidate route with the lowest energy use.

Zhao, Junfeng↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating discoveries at DIII-D with the Integrated Research Infrastructure

DIII-D research is being accelerated by leveraging high performance computing (HPC) and data resources available through the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) Superfacility initiative. As part of this initiative, a high-resolution, fully automated, whole discharge kinetic equilibrium reconstruction workflow was developed that runs at the NERSC for most DIII-D shots in under 20 min. This has eliminated a long-standing research barrier and opened the door to more sophisticated analyses, including plasma transport and stability. These capabilities would benefit from being automated and executed within the larger Department of Energy Advanced Scientific Computing Research program’s Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) framework. The goal of IRI is to empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. For transport, we are looking at producing flux matched profiles and also using particle tracing to predict fast ion heat deposition from neutral beam injection before a shot takes place. Our starting point for evaluating plasma stability focuses on the pedestal limits that must be navigated to achieve better confinement. This information is meant to help operators run more effective experiments, so it needs to be available rapidly inside the DIII-D control room. So far this has been achieved by ensuring the data is available with existing tools, but as more novel results are produced new visualization tools must be developed. In addition, all of the high-quality data we have generated has been collected into databases that can unlock even deeper insights. This has already been leveraged for model and code validation studies as well as for developing AI/ML surrogates. The workflows developed for this project are intended to serve as prototypes that can be replicated on other experiments and can be run to provide timely and essential information for ITER, as well as next stage fusion power plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multitask Machine Learning of Collective Variables for Enhanced Sampling of Rare Events

Computing accurate reaction rates is a central challenge in computational chemistry and biology because of the high cost of free energy estimation with unbiased molecular dynamics. In this work, a data-driven machine learning algorithm is devised to learn collective variables with a multitask neural network, where a common upstream part reduces the high dimensionality of atomic configurations to a low dimensional latent space and separate downstream parts map the latent space to predictions of basin class labels and potential energies. Here, the resulting latent space is shown to be an effective low-dimensional representation, capturing the reaction progress and guiding effective umbrella sampling to obtain accurate free energy landscapes. This approach is successfully applied to model systems including a 5D Müller Brown model, a 5D three-well model, the alanine dipeptide in vacuum, and an Au(110) surface reconstruction unit reaction. It enables automated dimensionality reduction for energy controlled reactions in complex systems, offers a unified and data-efficient framework that can be trained with limited data, and outperforms single-task learning approaches, including autoencoders.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗