Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data analysis methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing the Reproducibility and Replicability of Supervised AI/ML in the Earth Systems Science by Leveraging Social Science Methods

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) pose a challenge for achieving science that is both reproducible and replicable. The challenge is compounded in supervised models that depend on manually labeled training data, as they introduce additional decision-making and processes that require thorough documentation and reporting. We address these limitations by providing an approach to hand labeling training data for supervised ML that integrates quantitative content analysis (QCA)—a method from social science research. The QCA approach provides a rigorous and well-documented hand labeling procedure to improve the replicability and reproducibility of supervised ML applications in Earth systems science (ESS), as well as the ability to evaluate them. Specifically, the approach requires (a) the articulation and documentation of the exact decision-making process used for assigning hand labels in a “codebook” and (b) an empirical evaluation of the reliability” of the hand labelers. In this paper, we outline the contributions of QCA to the field, along with an overview of the general approach. We then provide a case study to further demonstrate how this framework has and can be applied when developing supervised ML models for applications in ESS. With this approach, we provide an actionable path forward for addressing ethical considerations and goals outlined by recent AGU work on ML ethics in ESS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pair distribution function analysis of nano-object assemblies

The atomic pair distribution function (aPDF) analysis technique, also known as the total scattering method, which considers both Bragg and diffuse scattering, has been used extensively to probe local atomic arrangements in crystalline and disordered materials. In contrast, there have been limited applications of the PDF in self-assembled nanomaterials, which represent a class of materials built from nanoscale objects, such as nano-colloids, micelles and proteins. As distinguished from atoms, nano-objects have polydispersity in size and shape, and such form-factor effects complicate the application of PDF analysis to nano-systems. Here, in this paper, the application of the PDF is extended to spherical nano-object assemblies and the formulae for the nano-PDF (nPDF) are derived, showing some differences from the aPDF. By numerical simulations, the properties of the nPDF (peak broadening and pattern profile) are studied systematically as a function of structural features, such as nano-object parameters (size and size polydispersity) and assembly structural features (size, shape, structure type and lattice disorder), and of data processing parameters ( q cut-off and `missing' data in ultra-small-angle regions). The nPDF analysis method is found to provide an effective route to revealing not only nanoscale but also mesoscale structural properties, for example the morphology of a nano-assembly.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An evaluation for geometries, formation enthalpies, and dissociation energies of diatomic and triatomic (C, H, N, O), NO 3 , and HNO 3 molecules from the PAW DFT method with PBE and optB88-vdW functionals

The structural geometries, formation enthalpies, and dissociation energies of all diatomic and triatomic molecules consisting of the four basic elements C, H, N, and/or O are calculated using the projector augmented wave density functional theory (DFT) method with the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof and optB88-vdW exchange-correlation functionals. The calculations are also extended to two larger molecules NO 3 and HNO 3 , which consist of four and five atoms, respectively. In total, 82 molecules or isomers are considered in the calculations. The geometric parameters including 42 bond lengths and 15 bond angles of these molecules calculated using the planewave DFT method are highly satisfactory, relative to the available experimental data. The error analysis is also performed for 49 formation enthalpies and 138 dissociation energies (including 51 atomization energies as well as the corresponding bond dissociation energies). The results are also compared with the previous data from various atomic-orbital-based methods for molecules and from similar or different planewave DFT methods for various solids and other molecules. This provides an informative and instructive evaluation especially for calculating the large-size material systems containing these small molecules as well as for developing the DFT methods further.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dispersion Validation for Flow Involving a Large Structure Revisited: 45 Degree Rotation

The atmospheric dispersion of contaminants in the wake of a large urban structure is a challenging fluid mechanics problem of interest to the scientific and engineering communities. Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) and Magnetic Resonance Concentration (MRC) are relatively new techniques that leverage diagnostic equipment used primarily by the medical field to make 3D engineering measurements of flow and contaminant dispersal. SIERRA/Fuego, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code at Sandia National Labs is employed to make detailed comparisons to the dataset to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of the model. This work is the second in a series of scenarios. In the prior work, a single large building in an array of similar buildings was considered with the wind perpendicular to a building face. In this work, the geometry is rotated by 45 degrees and improved studies are performed for simulation credibility. The comparison exercise shows conditionally good comparisons between the model and experiment. Model uncertainties are assessed through parametric variations. Various methods of quantifying the accuracy between experiments and data are examined Three-dimensional analysis of accuracy is performed. The effort helped identify deficiencies in the techniques used to make these comparisons, and further methods development therefore becomes one of the main recommendations for follow-on work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

3D Continuous Forcing Dataset from 3D Constrained Variational Analysis at SGP

The continuous 3D large-scale forcing (VARANAL3D) data set derived from 3D constrained variational analysis (3DCVA) extends the conventional constrained variational analysis method by incorporating multiple sub-columns within the analysis domain. This advancement introduces spatial variability into the large-scale forcing fields, thereby enriching the data set’s applicability. The VARANAL3D data set spans from 2004 to 2018 and covers a region of 5˚×4.5˚ domain around the ARM SGP site. The analysis domain is divided into 10×9 sub-columns with 0.5˚ resolution. The 3D large-scale forcing data provides necessary variables to drive and evaluate single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) ,and large-eddy simulations (LES), as well as information for testing model sensitivity to spatial variability of the large-scale forcing data, facilitating more rigorous testing and refinement of physical processes in SCM/CRM/LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen effects on thermal diffusivity and electrical resistivity of zircaloy cladding

Thermal diffusivity measurements on Zirconium-based cladding materials have historically been a challenge due to the difficulty to measure on specimens with curved geometries, including nuclear grade Zircaloy cladding materials. Here, in this work, we first used laser flash analysis method and four-probe configuration method to measure the thermal diffusivity and electrical resistivity of Zircaloy tubes respectively, which show good agreement with Zircaloy plates in this work, as well as previously published data. The consistent results proved the applicability of the laser flash analysis setup and four-probe configuration method for investigating thermal diffusivity and electrical resistivity of Zircaloy tubes. We further investigated the hydrogen effect on thermal diffusivity and electrical resistivity of Zircaloy. Hydrogen plays significant roles in the thermal diffusivity of Zircaloy, which depends on the hydrogen concentration. For higher hydrogen contents (1130 and 1820 wppm in this work), where phase transformation (α-Zr + δ-hydride → α-Zr + β-Zr) occurs at 567 °C, thermal diffusivity decreases as a function of temperature at the α-Zr + δ-hydride phase regime, while increase at higher temperature at the α-Zr + β-Zr phase regime. For low hydrogen concentration, where hydride dissolved into α-Zr matrix phase at higher temperature, the thermal diffusivity is lower than non-hydrided Zircaloy-4 with similar temperature-dependent trends. Such observation demonstrates the hydrogen effects on reducing thermal diffusivity of α-Zr phase. Hydrogen increases the electrical resistivity of Zircaloy. Similar to thermal diffusivity results, the phase transformation causes a reversal of temperature-dependent trends in electrical resistivity results in Zircaloy-4 with higher hydrogen contents.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updated ASME design correlations and qualification plan for powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

This report provides an update on the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program effort to qualify Laser-Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) 316H stainless steel for use with the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules. The report summarizes progress in testing and characterizing L-PBF material at elevated temperatures by providing preliminary design data for L-PBF 316H and by comparing the elevated temperature performance of the L-PBF material to wrought and conventional fusion welded 316H. The report then updates the initial AMMT qualification plan for L-PBF 316H, originally developed in 2023, to update the accelerated qualification strategy adopted in that plan to account for the new high temperature test data. The report also explores a few methods for further accelerating the qualification process using machine learning techniques to supplement the more conventional, empirical analysis methods typically used by ASME to correlate and extrapolate time-dependent material test data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning for Automated Extraction of Building Geometry

As data science comes to buildings, the promise of using machine learning and novel sources of data has received much attention. Advances in machine learning and computer vision algorithms, combined with increased access to unstructured data (e.g., images and text), have created an opportunity for automated extraction of building characteristics – cost-effectively, and at scale. Acquisition of features such as footprint are time consuming and costly to acquire with today’s manual methods, but can be streamlined through intelligent software-based solutions applied to satellite images. When combined with aerial RGB and thermal images, full 3D geometries and thermal maps can be constructed to determine additional characteristics such as window to wall ratio, height, number of stories and envelope thermal characteristics. In this paper we present three contributions to accelerate these high potential opportunities: (1) a methodical analysis of how these features can be integrated into today’s simulation and data driven software tools to enhance efficiency measure identification and owner/operator decision making; (2) development and accuracy testing of open source deep neural network methods to extract building footprints from satellite imagery, including the curation and application of openly available GIS datasets for training and continued development by others; and (3) an open framework for drone-based image capture and creation of 3D building geometries. This work represents an important bridge between high-level studies that span diverse application areas and those that detail point solutions yet cannot be easily replicated or extended.

Touzani, Samir↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Americium-Containing Phosphates, Silicates, Borates, Molybdates, and Fluorides Synthesized via High-Temperature Flux Crystal Growth

The crystal chemistry of americium-containing extended structures was investigated, and several classes of americium-containing solid-state oxide materials were obtained in single-crystal form via high-temperature flux crystal growth. This enabled the structural characterization of rare examples of ternary, quaternary, and penternary americium-containing silicates K 3 Am (Si 2 O 7 ) and Cs 6 Am 2 Si 21 O 48 , phosphates Na 3 Am (PO 4 ) 2 and K 3 Am (PO 4 ) 2 , borates Ba 3 Am 2 (BO 3 ) 4 and AmBO 3 , borate halides Ca 5 Am(BO 3 ) 4 Cl, molybdates Li 0.5 Am 0.5 MoO 4 , and fluorides CsAm 2 F 7 . Using these crystallographic data, the ionic radii of Am 3+ with coordination numbers of six (0.975 Å), seven (1.052 Å), and nine (1.162 Å) were established. A maximum entropy method (MEM) analysis was performed on the single-crystal X-ray diffraction data that were collected for K 3 Nd(PO 4 ) 2 /K 3 Am(PO 4 ) 2 , K 3 NdSi 2 O 7 /K 3 AmSi 2 O 7 , and NdBO 3 /AmBO 3 , to qualitatively compare the ionicities of the Nd–O and Am–O bonds. In conclusion, Raman spectroscopy data were collected on single crystals of K 3 Am(PO 4 ) 2 and compared to the calculated Raman spectrum of K 3 Am(PO 4 ) 2 obtained from DFT calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating high-energy proton-induced reactions on spherical nuclei: Implications for the preequilibrium exciton model

A number of accelerator-based isotope production facilities utilize $100-200$ MeV proton beams due to the high production rates enabled by high-intensity beam capabilities and the greater diversity of isotope production brought on by the long range of high-energy protons. However, nuclear reaction modeling at these energies can be challenging because of the interplay between different reaction modes and a lack of existing guiding cross section data. A Tri-lab collaboration has been formed between the Lawrence Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Brookhaven National Laboratories to address these complexities by characterizing charged-particle nuclear reactions relevant to the production of established and novel radioisotopes. In the inaugural collaboration experiments, stacked-targets of niobium foils were irradiated at the Brookhaven Linac Isotope Producer ($E_p=200$ MeV) and the Los Alamos Isotope Production Facility ($E_p=100$ MeV) to measure $^{93}$Nb(p,x) cross sections between $50-200$ MeV. The results were compared with literature data as well as the default calculations of the nuclear model codes TALYS, CoH, EMPIRE, and ALICE. The default code predictions largely failed to reproduce the measurements. Therefore, we developed a standardized procedure, which determines the reaction model parameters that best reproduce the most prominent reaction channels in a physically justifiable manner. Overall, the primary focus of the procedure was to determine the best parameterization for the pre-equilibrium two-component exciton model. This modeling study revealed a trend towards a relative decrease for internal transition rates at intermediate proton energies ($E_p=20-60$ MeV) in the current exciton model as compared to the default values. The results of this work are instrumental for the planning, execution, and analysis essential to isotope production.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summary of the 5th IAEA technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA)

The purpose of the 5th International Atomic Energy Agency technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA) (Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, 12–15 June 2023) was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to FDPVA were discussed with the view of meeting the needs of next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics data analysis and synthetic diagnostics reported at the meeting, including concept description of new devices; fusion databases; integrated data analysis; inverse problems; uncertainty propagation, verification and validation; probabilistic methods and machine learning. The relevant results underline trends observed in the current major fusion confinement devices.

fusion databases↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting optical transients using artificial neural networks and reference images from different surveys

ABSTRACT We present a technique to detect optical transients based on an artificial neural networks method. We describe the architecture of two networks capable of comparing images of the same part of the sky taken by different telescopes. One image corresponds to the epoch in which a potential transient could exist; the other is a reference image of an earlier epoch. We use data obtained by the Dr. Cristina V. Torres Memorial Astronomical Observatory and archival reference images from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We trained a convolutional neural network and a dense layer network on simulated source samples and then tested the trained networks on samples created from real image data. Autonomous detection methods replace the standard process of detecting transients, which is normally achieved by source extraction of a difference image followed by human inspection of the detected candidates. Replacing the human inspection component with an entirely autonomous method would allow for a rapid and automatic follow-up of interesting targets of opportunity. The toy-model pipeline that we present here is not yet able to replace human inspection, but it might provide useful hints to identify potential candidates. The method will be further expanded and tested on telescopes participating in the Transient Optical Robotic Observatory of the South Collaboration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decoding the Pair Distribution Function of Uranium in Molten Fluoride Salts from X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Data by Machine Learning

Thermal properties of actinides in molten salts are linked to the strongly disordered local environment of actinide ions. Here, we illustrate both the limitations of the commonly used fitting method for analysis of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra in molten UF 4 and a possible solution using an "objective neural network - EXAFS" (ONNE) method. ONNE provides both extraction of the pair distribution function, as validated by its application to the EXAFS spectra calculated on molecular dynamics trajectory, and the EXAFS data reconstruction. The ONNE analysis of the molten UF4 has revealed reduction of the first nearest neighbor U-F coordination number, expansion of the U-F bond length and smaller contribution to the second shell compared to its crystalline counterpart. This method is therefore an attractive alternative to conventional EXAFS analysis and molecular dynamics simulations for studies of disordered environment of actinides in molten salts.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lift & Learn: Physics-informed machine learning for large-scale nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, we present Lift & Learn, a physics-informed method for learning low-dimensional models for large-scale dynamical systems. The method exploits knowledge of a system’s governing equations to identify a coordinate transformation in which the system dynamics have quadratic structure. This transformation is called a lifting map because it often adds auxiliary variables to the system state. The lifting map is applied to data obtained by evaluating a model for the original nonlinear system. This lifted data is projected onto its leading principal components, and low-dimensional linear and quadratic matrix operators are fit to the lifted reduced data using a least-squares operator inference procedure. Analysis of our method shows that the Lift & Learn models are able to capture the system physics in the lifted coordinates at least as accurately as traditional intrusive model reduction approaches. This preservation of system physics makes the Lift & Learn models robust to changes in inputs. Numerical experiments on the FitzHugh–Nagumo neuron activation model and the compressible Euler equations demonstrate the generalizability of our model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗