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NASA NTRS2020

Sensitivity of Multispectral Imager Liquid Water Cloud Microphysical Retrievals to the Index of Refraction

A cloud property retrieved from multispectral imagers having spectral channels in the shortwave infrared (SWIR) and/or midwave infrared (MWIR) is the effective particle radius (CER), a radiatively relevant weighting of the cloud particle size distribution. The physical basis of the CER retrieval is the dependence of SWIR/MWIR cloud reflectance on the cloud particle single scattering absorption, which in turn depends on the complex index of refraction of bulk liquid water (or ice) in addition to the cloud particle size. There is a general consistency in the choice of the liquid water index of refraction by the cloud remote sensing community, largely due to the few available independent datasets and compilations. Here we examine the sensitivity of CER retrievals to the available laboratory index of refraction datasets in the SWIR and MWIR using the retrieval software package that produces NASA’s standard MODIS/VIIRS continuity cloud products. The sensitivity study incorporates two laboratory index of refraction datasets that include measurements at supercooled water temperatures, one in the SWIR [Kou et al., 1993] and one in the MWIR [Wagner et al., 2005]. Neither has been broadly utilized in the cloud remote sensing community. It is shown that these two new datasets can significantly change CER retrievals (e.g., 1-2 μm) relative to common datasets used by the community. Further, index of refraction data for a 265 K water temperature results in more consistent retrievals between the two spectrally distinct 2.2 μm atmospheric window channels on MODIS and VIIRS. As a result, the 265 K values from the SWIR and MWIR index of refraction datasets were adopted for use in the production version of the continuity cloud product. The results indicate the need to better understand temperature-dependent bulk water absorption and uncertainties in these spectral regions.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft-Measured Indirect Cloud Effects from Biomass Burning Smoke in the Arctic and Subarctic

The incidence of wildfires in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, for example, the burned area is expected to increase by 200-300% over the next 50-100 years, which previous studies suggest could have a large effect on cloud microphysics, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and clouds remain poorly quantified due to confounding meteorological influences and remote sensing limitations. Here, we use data from several aircraft campaigns in the Arctic and subarctic to explore cloud microphysics in liquid-phase clouds influenced by biomass burning. Median cloud droplet radii in smoky clouds were approx. 40- 60% smaller than in background clouds. Based on the relationship between cloud droplet number (N(liq)/ and various biomass burning tracers (BBt/ across the multi-campaign data set, we calculated the magnitude of subarctic and Arctic smoke aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs, where ACI = (1/3) x dln(N(liq))/dln(BBt)) to be approx. 0.16 out of a maximum possible value of 0.33 that would be obtained if all aerosols were to nucleate cloud droplets. Interestingly, in a separate subarctic case study with low liquid water content (0.02 gm/cu m and very high aerosol concentrations (2000- 3000/ cu cm in the most polluted clouds, the estimated ACI value was only 0.05. In this case, competition for water vapor by the high concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) strongly limited the formation of droplets and reduced the cloud albedo effect, which highlights the importance of cloud feedbacks across scales. Using our calculated ACI values, we estimate that the smoke-driven cloud albedo effect may decrease local summertime short-wave radiative flux by between 2 and 4 W/sq m or more under some low and homogeneous cloud cover conditions in the subarctic, although the changes should be smaller in high surface albedo regions of the Arctic.We lastly explore evidence suggesting that numerous northern-latitude background Aitken particles can interact with combustion particles, perhaps impacting their properties as cloud condensation and ice nuclei.

cloud microphysics↗

NASA NTRS1986

Planning for the utilization of the PCDS in studying the interaction of clouds (ISCCP-C data) and the Earth radiation budget (ERBE data)

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) affords an opportunity to analyze data from different but highly complementary data sets. Two of these highly complementary data sets supported by the PCDS are the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Both data set sponsors are aware of the utility of one data set to the other, and both projects utilize gridded data on a 2.5 deg by 2.5 deg grid. The ISCCP data have been collected since July 1983, and the NOAA-9 data for ERBE have been collected for more than a year. Therefore, there is a good chance to use these temporally overlapping data sets to investigate hypothesized relationships. Changes in cloudiness affect both cloud albedo feedback (shortwave) and the greenhouse effect (longwave). The relative importance of the effects of clouds on albedo versus outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in determining the radiation balance has long been a matter of controversy. Now, however, changes in cloud amount as observed by the ISCCPO can be correlated to corresponding changes in the albedo and changes in the OLR from ERBE. Monthly means can be utilized in all instances.

Jacobowitz, H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cloud, Aerosol, and Radiative Properties Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

This study examines the atmospheric properties of weather states (WSs) derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) over the Western North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, radiation and aerosol data corresponding to two sites in the study domain, Pennsylvania State University and Bermuda, were examined to characterize the atmospheric properties of the various satellite-derived WSs. At both sites, the fair weather WS was most prevalent, followed by the cirrus WS. Differences in the seasonality of the various WSs were observed at the two sites. Fractional sky cover and effective shortwave cloud transmissivity derived from ground-based radiation measurements were able to capture differences among the satellite-derived WSs. Speciated aerosol optical thicknesses (AOT) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) were used to investigate potential differences in aerosol properties among the WSs. The clear sky WS exhibited below-average seasonal values of AOT at both sites year-round, as well as relatively high rates of occurrence with low AOT events. In addition, the clear sky WS showed above-average contributions from dust and black carbon to the total AOT year-round. Finally, transitions between various WSs were examined under low, high, and mid-range AOT conditions. The most common pathway was for the WSs to remain in the same state after a 3 hr interval. Some WSs, such as midlatitude storms, deep convection, middle top, and shallow cumulus, were more prevalent as ending states under high AOT conditions. This work motivates examining differences in aerosol properties between WSs in other regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Seasonal Evolution of Atmospheric Vertical Structure of Smoke and Humidity Over the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Region

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) sees a consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward in the free troposphere, where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the SEA stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region; this correlation is persistent through the biomass burning season, although varying through the course of the season. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region during three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. We use the ORACLES observations to assess this smoke-vapor relationship. First, we discuss the good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and the ECMWF ERA5 and CAMS reanalyses, as well as results from NASA’s MERRA-2, as seen over the three deployment years. We then use the reanalyses to develop a framework in which to understand more broadly the radiative and dynamical interactions between the elevated smoke and water vapor over the SEA through the biomass burning season, beyond the three ORACLES observation periods. Looking at seven years of reanalysis data for the BB season, we find distinct variations between each month/deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions through the BB season. Using k-means clustering of these climatological reanalyses, we identify six canonical atmospheric profile types of varying total atmospheric humidity and vertical structure and describe their changing incidence spatially and throughout the season, and six analogous profile types for carbon monoxide, allowing us to characterize the atmospheric structure of both vapor and BB over time throughout the SEA region. The radiative heating of both aerosol and water vapor has potential to influence the cloud-top entrainment and atmospheric turbulence, thus modifying the underlying stratocumulus cloud properties. We next discuss how these smoke-humidity variations influence both the low-cloud fraction (as observed by MODIS and VIIRS, and output by ERA5) and the boundary layer height in the region. This classification will ultimately allow for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗

NASA NTRS1989

Earth radiation budget and cloudiness simulations with a general circulation model

A GCM with new parameterizations of solar and terrestrial radiation, parameterized cloud optical properties, and a simple representation of the cloud liquid water feedback is used with several observational data sets to analyze the effects of cloudiness on the earth's radiation budget. The January and July results from the model are in reasonable agreement with data from Nimbus-7. It is found that the simulated cloudiness overpredicts subtropical and midlatitude cloudiness. The simulated atmospheric cloud radiative forcing is examined. The clear-sky radiation fields obtained by two methods of Cess and Potter (1987) are compared. Also, a numerical experiment was performed to determine the effects of the water vapor continuum on the model results.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

NASA NTRS1999

Potential Climate Impacts of Engine Particle Emissions

Solid (soot) and liquid (presumed sulfate) particle emissions from aircraft engines may have serious impacts on the atmosphere. While the direct radiative impact of these particles is expected to be small relative to those from natural sources (Atmospheric Effects of Subsonic Aircraft: Interim Assessment of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, NASA Ref. Pub. 1400, 1997), their indirect effects on atmospheric chemistry and cloud formation may have a significant impact. The potential impacts of primary concern are the increase of sulfate surface area and accelerated heterogeneous chemical reactions, and the potential for either modified soot or sulfate particles to serve as cloud nuclei which would change the frequency or radiative characteristics of clouds. Volatile (sulfate) particle concentrations measured behind the Concorde aircraft in flight in the stratosphere were much higher than expected from near-field model calculations of particle formation and growth. Global model calculations constrained by these data calculate a greater level of stratospheric ozone depletion from the proposed High speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleet than those without particle emission. Soot particles have also been proposed as important in heterogeneous chemistry but this remains to be substantiated. Aircraft volatile particle production in the troposphere has been shown by measurements to depend strongly on fuel sulfur content. Sulfate particles of sufficient size are known to provide a good nucleating surface for cloud growth. Although pure carbon soot is hydrophobic, the solid particle surface may incorporate more suitable nucleating sites. The non-volatile (soot) particles also tend to occupy the large end of aircraft particle size spectra. Quantitative connection between aircraft particle emissions and cloud modification has not been established yet, however, even small changes in cloud amount or properties could have a significant effect on the radiative balance of the atmosphere.

Kawa, S. Randy↗

NASA NTRS1992

CRRES: The combined release and radiation effects satellite program directory

As a result of natural processes, plasma clouds are often injected into the magnetosphere. These chemical releases can be used to study many aspects of such injections. When a dense plasma is injected into the inner magnetosphere, it is expected to take up the motion of the ambient plasma. However, it has been observed in previous releases at moderate altitudes that the cloud preserved its momentum for some time following the release and that parts of the cloud peeled off from the main cloud presumable due to the action of an instability. As one moves outward into the magnetosphere, the mirror force becomes less dominant and the initial conditions following a release are dominated by the formation of a diamagnetic cavity since the initial plasma pressure from the injected Ba ions is greater than the magnetic field energy density. A previous high-altitude release (31,300 km) showed this to be the case initially, but at later times there was evidence for acceleration of the Ba plasma to velocities corresponding to 60,000 K. This effect is not explained. This series of experiments is therefore designed to inject plasma clouds into the magnetosphere under widely varying conditions of magnetic field strength and ambient plasma density. In this way the coupling of injected clouds to the ambient plasma and magnetic field, the formation of striations due to instabilities, and possible heating and acceleration of the injected Ba plasma can be studied over a wide range of magnetosphere parameters. Adding to the scientific yield will be the availability of measurements for the DOD/SPACERAD instruments which can monitor plasma parameters, electric and magnetic fields, and waves before, during and after the releases.

Layman, Laura D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Latitudinal survey of spectral optical depths of the Pinatubo volcanic cloud - Derived particle sizes, columnar mass loadings, and effects on planetary albedo

Airborne measurements are examined of spectral optical depths, radiative fluxes, and scattered radiation fields during the NASA Caribbean mission (July 7-14, 1991) to characterize the Pinatubo volcanic cloud. The latitudinal and spectral dependence are reported of the volcanic cloud's optical depth. From these measurements moments of the particle-size distribution are determined. The change in planetary albedo induced by the volcanic cloud is calculated for the range of measured optical depths with the objective of assessing the impact on the solar radiation budget. Mid-visible optical depths higher than 0.4 were observed, placing the Pinatubo stratospheric cloud among the thickest ever measured. The latitudinal distribution of extinction shows that by July 7, 1991 the volcanic cloud had extended to 30 deg N. The effective particle radius was determined to be between 0.18 and 0.35 micron with a corresponding columnar mass loading between 35 and 80 mag/sq m.

Valero, Francisco P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Extinction coefficient (1 micrometer) properties of high-altitude clouds from solar occultation measurements (1985-1990): Evidence of volcanic aerosol effect

The properties of the 1-micrometer volume extinction coefficient of two geographically different high-altitude cloud systems have been examined for the posteruption period (1985-1990) of the April 1982 El Chichon volcanic event with emphasis on the effect of volcanic aerosols on clouds. These two high-altitude cloud systems are the tropical clouds in the tropopause region observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) 2 and the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) sighted by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2. The results indicate that volcanic aerosols alter the frequency distributions of these high-altitude clouds in such a manner that the occurrence of clouds having high extinction coefficients (6 x 10(exp -3) - 2 x 10(exp -2)/km) is suppressed, while that of clouds having low extinction coefficients (2 x 10(exp -3) - 6 x 10(exp -2)/km) is enhanced. This influence of the volcanic aerosols appears to be opposite to the increase in the extinction coefficient of optically thick clouds observed by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) during the initial posteruption period of the June 1991 Pinatubo eruption. A plausible explanation of this difference, based on the Mie theory, is presented. As a consequence of the Mie theory, the effective radius of most, if not all, of the high-altitude clouds, measured by the SAGE series of satellite instruments must be less than about 0.8 micrometers. This mean cloud particle size implied by the satellite extinction-coefficient data at a single wavelength (1 micrometer) is further substantiated by the particle size analysis based on cloud extinction coefficient at two wavelengths (0.525 and 1.02 micrometers) obtained by the SAGE 2 observations. Most of the radiation measured by ERBE is reflected by cloud systems comprised of particles having effective radii much greater than 1 micrometer. A reduction in the effective radius of these clouds due to volcanic aerosols is expected to increase their extinction-coefficient values, opposite the effect observed by SAGE 2 and SAM 2. This work further illustrates the capability of the solar occultation satellite sensor to provide particulate extinction-coefficient measurements important to the study of the aerosol-cloud interactions. It is important to examine the variations of the extinction coefficient of these two high-altitude cloud systems for the posteruption years of the Pinatubo volcanic event for further evidence of the impact of volcanic aerosols on high-altitude clouds.

Wang, Pi-Huan↗

NASA NTRS2003

Limits to the Indirect Aerosol Forcing in Stratocumulus

The indirect radiative forcing of aerosols is poorly constrained by the observational data underlying the simple cloud parameterizations in GCMs. signal of cloud response to increased aerosol concentrations from meteorological noise. Recent satellite observations indicate a significant decrease of cloud water in ship tracks, in contrast to an ensemble of in situ measurements showing no average change in cloud water relative to the surrounding clouds. Both results contradict the expectation of cloud water increasing in polluted clouds. We find through large-eddy simulations of stratocumulus that the trend in the satellite data is likely an artifact of sampling only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud cover increasing with droplet concentrations. The simulations also show that increases in cloud water from suppressing drizzle by increased droplet concentrations are favored at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations. At typical droplet concentrations we find that the Twomey effect on cloud albedo is amplified very little by the secondary indirect effect of drizzle suppression, largely because the absorption of solar radiation by cloud water reduces boundary-layer mixing in the daytime and thereby restricts any possible increase in cloud water from drizzle suppression. The cloud and boundary layer respond to radiative heating variations on a time scale of hours, and on longer time scales respond to imbalances between large-scale horizontal advection and the entrainment of inversion air. We analyze the co-varying response of cloud water, cloud thickness, width of droplet size distributions, and dispersion of the optical depth, as well as the overall response of cloud albedo, to changes in droplet concentrations. We also dissect the underlying physical mechanisms through sensitivity studies. Ship tracks represent an ideal natural laboratory to extricate the

Ackerman, Andrew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Deep Neural Network for Achieving Spectrally Consistent and Seamless Infrared Radiance Measurements Across Geostationary Satellite Domains

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides the scientific community with observed top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. To achieve this goal, CERES relies on TOA broadband fluxes derived from geostationary satellite (GEO) imagery to account for the diurnal flux variations between the CERES observation intervals. Consistent global flux derivation depends on accurate and consistent cloud retrievals. Scene-dependent spectral measurement inconsistency of the instruments that make up the contiguous ring of GEO observations (GEO-Ring), as well as limb darkening effects, can cause discontinuities in derived cloud properties and radiative fluxes at the boundaries of adjacent imager domains. Although the algorithms utilize radiative transfer models to account for instrument-band-dependent atmospheric correction and viewing zenith angle (VZA) dependency, small discontinuities may persist due to uncertainties inherent to the multiple imager-specific algorithms. Furthermore, while hyperspectral-instrument-based spectral band adjustment factors may effectively account for spectrally induced bias, they are less effective at reducing variance owed to the specific composition of the viewed scene, which is challenging to robustly characterize. As such, this article highlights the use of a deep neural network (DNN) to resolve spectral-and VZA-induced biases between GEO-Ring imagers. The DNN uses available infrared (IR) channels from the GEO instruments, along with viewing and solar illumination geometry, to estimate homogenized, VIIRS-like IR radiances for use in the GEO cloud algorithm. This approach is effective at mitigating scene-dependent spectral variance and VZA dependency, resulting in consistent radiance measurements across the GEO-Ring, thereby leading toward a more seamless global cloud assessment.

deep learning↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of the OMI Cloud Pressures Derived from Rotational Raman Scattering by Comparisons with other Satellite Data and Radiative Transfer Simulations

In this paper we examine differences between cloud pressures retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the ultraviolet rotational Raman scattering (RRS) algorithm and those from the thermal infrared (IR) Aqua/MODIS. Several cloud data sets are currently being used in OMI trace gas retrieval algorithms including climatologies based on IR measurements and simultaneous cloud parameters derived from OMI. From a validation perspective, it is important to understand the OMI retrieved cloud parameters and how they differ with those derived from the IR. To this end, we perform radiative transfer calculations to simulate the effects of different geophysical conditions on the OMI RRS cloud pressure retrievals. We also quantify errors related to the use of the Mixed Lambert-Equivalent Reflectivity (MLER) concept as currently implemented of the OMI algorithms. Using properties from the Cloudsat radar and MODIS, we show that radiative transfer calculations support the following: (1) The MLER model is adequate for single-layer optically thick, geometrically thin clouds, but can produce significant errors in estimated cloud pressure for optically thin clouds. (2) In a two-layer cloud, the RRS algorithm may retrieve a cloud pressure that is either between the two cloud decks or even beneath the top of the lower cloud deck because of scattering between the cloud layers; the retrieved pressure depends upon the viewing geometry and the optical depth of the upper cloud deck. (3) Absorbing aerosol in and above a cloud can produce significant errors in the retrieved cloud pressure. (4) The retrieved RRS effective pressure for a deep convective cloud will be significantly higher than the physical cloud top pressure derived with thermal IR.

Vasilkov, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1993

A modeling study of marine boundary layer clouds

Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds are important components of the earth's climate system. These clouds drastically reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the earth, but have little effect on the emitted infrared radiation on top of the atmosphere. In addition, these clouds are intimately involved in regulating boundary layer turbulent fluxes. For these reasons, it is important that general circulation models used for climate studies must realistically simulate the global distribution of the MBL. While the importance of these cloud systems is well recognized, many physical processes involved in these clouds are poorly understood and their representation in large-scale models remains an unresolved problem. The present research aims at the development and improvement of the parameterization of these cloud systems and an understanding of physical processes involved. This goal is addressed in two ways. One is to use regional modeling approach to validate and evaluate two-layer marine boundary layer models using satellite and ground-truth observations; the other is to combine this simple model with a high-order turbulence closure model to study the transition processes from stratocumulus to shallow cumulus clouds. Progress made in this effort is presented.

Wang, Shouping↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Top Radiative Cooling Rate Drives Non-Precipitating Stratiform Cloud Responses to Aerosol Concentration

Increases in aerosol concentration are well known to influence the microphysical processes and radiative properties of clouds. By reducing droplet size, an increase in aerosol can lessen collision efficiency and increase liquid water path (LWP) in precipitating clouds or enhance evaporation rate and decrease LWP in non-precipitating clouds. We utilize large eddy simulations to further investigate these aerosol indirect effects in Arctic mixed-phase clouds and find, in agreement with previous studies, precipitating clouds to experience an increase in LWP and non-precipitating clouds a decrease in LWP. Most importantly however, our results reveal a different explanation for why such an LWP decrease occurs in decoupled, non-precipitating clouds. We find enhanced evaporation near cloud top to be driven primarily by a strengthening of maximum radiative cooling rate with aerosol concentration which drives stronger entrainment, an effect that holds true even in clouds that are optically thick.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)

The E3SMv2 model, like various other global models that include representations of aerosol–cloud interactions, uses an empirically chosen lower bound on the simulated in-cloud cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to help constrain the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, ERFaer. This study identifies where ultra-low CDNCs (i.e., concentrations lower than 10 cm−3) occur in the stratiform and shallow convective clouds simulated by E3SMv2 and which of the occurrences have the strongest impact on ERF aer . Process-level analyses are presented to reveal characteristics of the cloud droplet formation and removal processes associated with impactful ultra-low CDNCs. Simulations performed with present-day emissions show that ultra-low CDNCs are most frequently found over the mid- and high-latitude oceans in both hemispheres, while the occurrences are also frequent in polluted continental regions despite the high aerosol concentrations. Ultra-low CDNCs with the largest impacts on the simulated regional and global mean ERF aer are found in the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These cases are typically associated with large cloud fractions, strong water vapor condensation, weak turbulence, and lack of cloud droplet nucleation from aerosol activation. Under such atmospheric conditions, boosting aerosol activation and enhancing turbulent mixing of cloud droplet number can increase the simulated CDNCs, although the magnitude of the global mean ERF aer increases undesirably. The reason for this model behavior is discussed. Overall, our study suggests that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is a cloud regime worth further investigating for the purpose of identifying and addressing the root causes of ultra-low CDNCs and strong ERF aer in E3SM.

Aerosol-Cloud Interaction↗

NASA NTRS1992

Use of satellite, surface, and aerological information for the calculation of thermal radiation fluxes

Data from the NOAA-9 satellite on cloud amount and cloud upper boundary temperature, data from surface weather stations, and results of aerological sounding of the atmosphere are used to calculate the vertical profiles of upward, downward, and effective fluxes of longwave radiation. A comparison of satellite and surface data on cloud amount and underlying surface temperature is presented.

Arking, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the largest source of uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming consistent with the observational record. The effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERFaci) is dominated by liquid clouds and is composed of two terms: the change in cloud albedo due to redistributing liquid over a larger number of cloud droplets (Nd) and the change in cloud macrophysical properties due to changes in cloud microphysics. These terms are, respectively, referred to as the radiative forcing due to ACI (RFaci) and aerosol–cloud adjustments. While the magnitude of RFaci is uncertain, its sign is confidently negative and results in a cooling in the historical record. In contrast, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP) to enhanced Nd and associated radiative forcing is uncertain in sign. Increased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with precipitation suppression, while decreased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with enhanced evaporation from cloud top. Observational constraints of these processes are poor in part because of causal ambiguity in the relationship between Nd and LWP. To better understand this relationship, precipitation (P), Nd, and LWP surface observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory are combined with the output from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). This allows for causal interpretation of observed covariability. Observations of precipitation and cloud from ENA constrain the range of possible LWP aerosol–cloud adjustments relative to the prior from the PPE by 15 %, resulting in a global value that is confidently positive (a historical cooling) ranging from 2.1 to 6.9 g m−2. It is found that observed covariability between Nd and LWP is dominated by coalescence scavenging and that this observed covariability is not strongly related to aerosol–cloud adjustments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗