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NASA NTRS2022

Clumped-Isotope Constraint on Upper-Tropospheric Cooling During the Last Glacial Maximum

Ice cores and other paleotemperature proxies, together with general circulation models, have provided information on past surface temperatures and the atmosphere's composition in different climates. Little is known, however, about past temperatures at high altitudes, which play a crucial role in Earth's radiative energy budget. Paleoclimate records at high-altitude sites are sparse, and the few that are available show poor agreement with climate model predictions. These disagreements could be due to insufficient spatial coverage, spatiotemporal biases, or model physics; new records that can mitigate or avoid these uncertainties are needed. Here, we constrain the change in upper-tropospheric temperature at the global scale during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen trapped in polar ice cores. Aided by global three-dimensional chemical transport modeling, we exploit the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of the clumped-isotope composition of atmospheric oxygen to infer that the upper troposphere (effective mean altitude 10–11 km) was 6–9°C cooler during the LGM than during the late preindustrial Holocene. A complementary energy balance approach supports a minor or negligible steepening of atmospheric lapse rates during the LGM, which is consistent with a range of climate model simulations. Proxy-model disagreements with other high-altitude records may stem from inaccuracies in regional hydroclimate simulation, possibly related to land-atmosphere feedbacks.

clumped isotope↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Southern Hemisphere Winter Storms Respond Differently to Low and High CO2 Forcings

Mid-latitude storms have large climate impacts affecting the variability of precipitation, temperature, and winds in the extra-tropics. In the Southern Hemisphere, climate models project an intensification of winter storms and a poleward shift of summer storms by the end of the 21st century. However, previous studies, using idealized models, have shown a non-monotonic behavior of the storms with increasing temperatures. Thus, with the unabated emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, one might expect a similar non-monotonic behavior beyond the 21st century. To examine this, we here investigate the response of mid-latitude winter storms in the Southern Hemisphere to increasing CO 2 concentrations (up to eight times the preindustrial CO 2 levels) using two state-of-the-art climate models. We find that at high CO 2 levels, winter storms no longer exhibit an intensification across the entire extratropics, as projected by the end of the 21st century. Instead, winter storms shift poleward, similar to the projected response of summer storms by 2100, including a weakening of the storms at low-mid latitudes and an intensification at mid-high latitudes. Out results stresses the importance of investigating the mid latitude flow beyond 2100, to account for any non-monotonic response to increasing GHGs.

CO2 forcings↗

NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗

NASA NTRS2014

Soot Superaggregates from Flaming Wildfires and Their Direct Radiative Forcing

Wildfires contribute significantly to global soot emissions, yet their aerosol formation mechanisms and resulting particle properties are poorly understood and parameterized in climate models. The conventional view holds that soot is formed via the cluster-dilute aggregation mechanism in wildfires and emitted as aggregates with fractal dimension D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8 mobility diameter D(sub m) (is) less than or equal to 1 micron, and aerodynamic diameter D(sub a) (is) less than or equal to 300 nm. Here we report the ubiquitous presence of soot superaggregates (SAs) in the outflow from a major wildfire in India. SAs are porous, low-density aggregates of cluster-dilute aggregates with characteristic D(sub f) approximately equals 2.6,D(sub m) (is) greater than 1 micron, and D(sub a) is less than or equal to 300 nm that form via the cluster-dense aggregation mechanism.We present additional observations of soot SAs in wildfire smoke-laden air masses over Northern California, New Mexico, and Mexico City. We estimate that SAs contribute, per unit optical depth, up to 35% less atmospheric warming than freshly-emitted (D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8) aggregates, and approximately equals 90% more warming than the volume-equivalent spherical soot particles simulated in climate models.

SAS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Utilizing Chamber Data for Developing and Validating Climate Change Models

Controlled environment chambers (e.g. growth chambers, SPAR chambers, or open-top chambers) are useful for measuring plant ecosystem responses to climatic variables and CO2 that affect plant water relations. However, data from chambers was found to overestimate responses of C fluxes to CO2 enrichment. Chamber data may be confounded by numerous artifacts (e.g. sidelighting, edge effects, increased temperature and VPD, etc) and this limits what can be measured accurately. Chambers can be used to measure canopy level energy balance under controlled conditions and plant transpiration responses to CO2 concentration can be elucidated. However, these measurements cannot be used directly in model development or validation. The response of stomatal conductance to CO2 will be the same as in the field, but the measured response must be recalculated in such a manner to account for differences in aerodynamic conductance, temperature and VPD between the chamber and the field.

Monje, Oscar↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modeling Climate-Biosphere Interactions in the Boreal Forest

The overall goal of this BOREAS Program was to develop, test, and apply a model of the carbon balance of boreal forest sites with a significant groundcover component (moss or lichen). The basic question addressed with this model was: What is the sensitivity of the boreal forest carbon balance to weather variability? More specifically: What are the differences in the sensitivities of carbon gains (photosynthesis) and carbon losses (respiration) of the various components of the ecosystem? Are there different seasonalities to their sensitivities (e.g., warmer springs will have one effect, warmer summers a different effect)? What are the effects of different patterns of successive weather years (wet/dry, warm/cool)? What, for example, would be the difference in effects of two "warmer than normal" months-one with each day warmer than normal, and the other with three normal weeks and one very hot week? Due to weather variability, how "noisy" will any carbon flux or carbon pool signal be that we might use to try to detect change? The project resulted in the development of a new boreal forest ecosystem model. This model was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at the role of mosses in the ecosystem carbon balance, and also was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at interannual variability in carbon fluxes. Along with the work of many other groups, TE-19 modeling analysis pointed to the need for a second, longer field season in 1996, with particular focus on the spring and fall transitions and on ground vegetation. BOREAS groups TE-19 (Frolking), TGB-1 (Crill) & TGB-3 (Moore & Roulet) analyzed BOREAS data and other published and unpublished data to develop a relationship between peatland ecosystem productivity and incoming radiation, which is quite distinct from the upland ecosystem relationships observed in other studies.

Frolking, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

NASA NTRS2023

Stratospheric Water Vapor Affecting Atmospheric Circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

stratosphere↗

NASA NTRS2013

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

water vapor↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impacts of the Convective Transport Algorithm on Atmospheric Composition and Ozone-Climate Feedbacks in GEOS-CCM

Convective transport is one of the dominant factors in determining the composition of the troposphere. It is the main mechanism for lofting constituents from near-surface source regions to the middle and upper troposphere, where they can subsequently be advected over large distances. Gases reaching the upper troposphere can also be injected through the tropopause and play a subsequent role in the lower stratospheric ozone balance. Convection codes in climate models remain a great source of uncertainty for both the energy balance of the general circulation and the transport of constituents. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to perform a controlled experiment that isolates the impact of convective transport of constituents from the direct changes on the atmospheric energy balance. Two multi-year simulations are conducted. In the first, the thermodynamic variable, moisture, and all trace gases are transported using the multi-plume Relaxed-Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convective parameterization. In the second simulation, RAS impacts the thermodynamic energy and moisture in this standard manner, but all other constituents are transported differently. The accumulated convective mass fluxes (including entrainment and detrainment) computed at each time step of the GCM are used with a diffusive (bulk) algorithm for the vertical transport, which above all is less efficient at transporting constituents from the lower to the upper troposphere. Initial results show the expected differences in vertical structure of trace gases such as carbon monoxide, but also show differences in lower stratospheric ozone, in a region where it can potentially impact the climate state of the model. This work will investigate in more detail the impact of convective transport changes by comparing the two simulations over many years (1996-2010), focusing on comparisons with observed constituent distributions and similarities and differences of patterns of inter-annual variability caused by the convective transport algorithm. In particular, the impact on lower stratospheric composition will be isolated and the subsequent feedbacks of ozone on the climate forcing and tropopause structure will be assessed.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Satellite-Based Model Parameterization of Diabatic Heating

Future meteorological satellites are expected to provide much needed fine-scale information that can improve the accuracy of weather and climate models. As one application of this improved capability, we introduce the concept of a generalized parameterization framework using satellite datasets that will increase the accuracy and the computational efficiency of weather and climate modeling. In an atmospheric model, several different parameterizations usually are used to reproduce the various physical processes. However, it is generally unrealistic to separate the processes in this artificial way since the observations and physics make no such artificial separation. Thus, we propose a new unified parameterization framework to remove the unrealistic separation between parameterizations.

Pielke, Roger, Sr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Haywood, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Tropical Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes and Latent Heating Distributions

Recent satellite determinations of global distributions of absolute gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratosphere show maxima over the summer subtropical continents and little evidence of GW momentum fluxes associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This seems to be at odds with parameterizations forGWmomentum fluxes, where the source is a function of latent heating rates, which are largest in the region of the ITCZ in terms of monthly averages. The authors have examined global distributions of atmospheric latent heating, cloud-top-pressure altitudes, and lower-stratosphere absolute GW momentum fluxes and have found that monthly averages of the lower-stratosphere GW momentum fluxes more closely resemble the monthly mean cloud-top altitudes rather than the monthly mean rates of latent heating. These regions of highest cloud-top altitudes occur when rates of latent heating are largest on the time scale of cloud growth. This, plus previously published studies, suggests that convective sources for stratospheric GW momentum fluxes, being a function of the rate of latent heating, will require either a climate model to correctly model this rate of latent heating or some ad hoc adjustments to account for shortcomings in a climate model's land-sea differences in convective latent heating.

momentum↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

NASA NTRS1992

Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.

Graf, HANS-F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption on the Stratosphere through Connecting Measurements to Models

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) injected approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor mass anomalies have persisted with only small losses over the past almost 2 years and are likely to continue above background for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the HTHH eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and continue the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we quantify how the HTHH eruption is perturbing stratospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues in the stratosphere with only very slow removal mechanisms. HTHH eruption provides a useful test of chemistry climate models and an opportunity for observation-based process understanding, which we will highlight.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai↗