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At least 595 records · Page 33

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamic optimization and economic evaluation of flexible heat integration in a hybrid concentrated solar power plant

Hybridization of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants provides flexibility in operation that can drastically improve the solar-to-electric (STE) efficiency and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) relative to standalone CSP plants. Flexible heat integration (FHI) is a novel concept where the collection and integration of CSP within a power plant is modified relative to the amount of solar energy available. FHI improves the thermal efficiency of a hybrid solar tower steam Rankine cycle power plant but leads to increased pumping needs due to continuously elevated molten salt flow rates through the collection system, which can negatively impact STE efficiency. The present work is carried out to maximize the STE efficiency of a hybrid CSP plant utilizing FHI by employing a dynamic optimization framework where a genetic algorithm optimizes the operation of the plant over a given solar irradiance profile. The study concerns a plant hypothetically located in Salt Lake City, Utah. Here, the optimization results confirm the accuracy of a predictive heuristic where the preferred operation of the plant can be estimated relative to local peaks in the incident power generated by the heliostat collection field. The optimized FHI operation demonstrates a yearly STE efficiency of 13.8%, whereas the equivalent base-level hybrid and solar-only plants exhibit solar efficiencies of 13.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Economic analysis shows that FHI reduces yearly natural gas costs, leading to a $\$0.5$/MWh reduction in LCOE relative to the base-level hybrid configuration. Overall, the results show that hybrid FHI schemes exhibit economic benefits along with observed thermodynamic improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new. This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales. We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO 2 -emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

How close are urban scale building simulations to measured data? Examining bias derived from building metadata in urban building energy modeling

Residential and commercial buildings in the United States accounted for 40% of total energy in 2020. Building energy modeling (BEM) is a useful tool that allows individuals, researchers, companies, or utilities to save energy by optimizing buildings through estimation of building technology savings and performance projection of building energy under various environmental conditions. Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) expands the scope beyond individual buildings to the buildings in a neighborhood, city, utility and more. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the literature as to how these models compare to measured data on an individual and aggregated basis. As UBEM data and methods continue to develop, it is important to consider the accuracy, bias, and limitations of the models. Here, nation-scale data and UBEM software suite named Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) was used to model 50,843 buildings in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The uncalibrated simulation results were compared to aggregated 15-minute electricity data for the year 2019 with visualizations highlighting sources of bias in building data and the AutoBEM framework while considering how they relate to other UBEM methods. Estimation of building type and year of constructions are found to be the major sources of bias. Accounting for the amount of conditioned area per building significantly improves the overall fit of the simulated energy use intensity. it was found that inherent variation in building energy use contributes to R 2 values between 0.008 and 0.095 across building types but slope values near 1 for the total number of buildings. This indicates the need for building aggregation for representative building energy modeling with data sources available at an urban scale while illustrating the need for additional individual building data and model improvement beyond the originally produced UBEM models for individual building analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-objective sizing and dispatch for building thermal and battery storage towards economic and environmental synergy

The role of building thermal and battery storage is pivotal in advancing smart cities and achieving sustainability goals through effective energy management. Despite their significance, there are several limitations in the sizing approach and value stream analysis with various objectives for their widespread adoption in buildings. This work proposes a flexible and scalable multi-objective optimization framework for optimal sizing and dispatch of building thermal and battery storage, addressing conflicting objectives simultaneously using mixed-integer linear programming. The weighted-sum method is adapted, combining multiple objectives into a single function. The two-stage procedure iterates over different weights, generating optimal solutions and forming the Pareto front. Case studies are performed to assess the energy, economic, and environmental benefits of building energy storage systems for a large office building in three climate locations. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework efficiently determines optimal sizing and dispatch strategies, addressing the balance between economic viability and emission reduction. The dynamic relationship between time-of-use energy charges and emission factors leads to significantly different strategies based on whether economic or environmental concerns are prioritized. This research enhances our understanding of the benefits of TES and BES systems in buildings, providing valuable guidance to stakeholders.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of typical solar years and typical wind years for efficient assessment of renewable energy systems across the U.S.

Weather data plays a critical role in renewable energy analysis. Compared to using multiple Actual Meteorological Years, simulations using a single typical year require significantly fewer computational resources. Previous efforts to create typical weather datasets for renewable energy analysis either lack justified or optimized strategies for selecting and weighting different weather parameters or are limited to a few specific locations. Here, in this study, we developed a dataset comprising Typical Solar Years (TSYs) and Typical Wind Years (TWYs) for over 2000 locations across the U.S., based on data from NASA's POWER project. The strategies for creating TSYs and TWYs were optimized based on the simulated outputs of various PV systems and wind turbines in 16 representative cities. This dataset provides an efficient means for the rapid evaluation and optimization of renewable energy systems throughout the entire U.S. Additionally, the optimal strategies identified in this study can be directly applied to create near-optimal TSYs and TWYs for most locations worldwide. However, readers can also employ the optimization approach presented in this work to develop optimal strategies tailored for particular regions.

NASA POWER↗

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

High resolution variability in wet deposition in the southeastern United States

Rainwater chemistry is determined by atmospheric pollutants and particles which vary spatially and temporally. Industrial and agricultural activities and meteorological events (e.g. sea breezes, severe weather, blowing dust) alter atmospheric particle and trace gas compositions. These gases and particles are scavenged by cloud and rain droplets that drive wet deposition. During an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) from April to October 2021, rainwater was collected at higher frequency intervals, usually daily, after precipitation events at three locations on the Savannah River Site (SRS). The farthest locations were separated by approximately 20 km. The mean concentration (μeq/L) of seven ions followed the Cl⁻ > SO 4 2− > Na⁺ > NO 3 ⁻ > K⁺ > Mg 2+ > Ca 2+ downward trend. Ion concentrations were compared to background ion concentrations from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The high frequency monthly averaged SRS data compared well with the monthly averaged NADP background but demonstrated extensive variability. In some months in 2021, the high frequency data compared better to the NADP site near the coast while in other months inland sites compared better. Strong spatial variability for ion concentrations was observed across SRS which was attributed to localized impacts in rainfall spatial variability. High frequency measurements allowed for comparison to regional weather patterns indicating influences from the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and cities. This can account for spatial variability in the wet deposition flux. Sea breezes, Saharan dust, and anthropogenic sources were shown to impact wet deposition flux variability. Higher frequency precipitation chemistry sampling at numerous locations better captures ion concentration variability and improves measurement representativeness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The value of adding black carbon to community monitoring of particulate matter

Low-cost particulate matter (PM) sensors are increasingly used by researchers, public health agencies, and the public to measure spatial and temporal variations in air pollution, which can inform strategies for community air pollution reduction. While low-cost PM sensors provide a valuable measure of harmful fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a significant portion of ambient PM 2.5 is typically the secondary product of air pollution emitted by varied sources outside of community boundaries. In contrast, concentrations of black carbon (BC), a component of PM 2.5 , are directly emitted by a few specific sources, such as diesel engines within communities. Motivated by community organizations seeking to understand persistent sources of local pollution, this study deployed a suite of custom-built BC sensors alongside a network of low-cost PM sensors for four weeks in two seasons at 50 stationary locations in the adjacent cities of Richmond, North Richmond, and San Pablo, California, east of the San Francisco Bay. Concentrations of BC varied more than PM 2.5 both temporally and spatially. Monthly network-average BC was 3×higher in winter than late spring, while PM 2.5 was only 10% lower. In both seasons, average PM 2.5 concentrations at two-thirds of sites were within ±10% of the network average, whereas two-thirds of sites had BC levels outside of ±10% of the network-average concentration. The most and least polluted locations were more persistent across seasons for BC than PM 2.5 , and the temporal dynamics of BC at these sites were similar, signifying that they are impacted by the same emission sources. Together, these spatiotemporal trends show that BC is a better indicator of the proximity and activity of local pollution sources than PM 2.5 . Thus, including BC in addition to PM 2.5 in community monitoring networks can provide additional insights about local sources of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional difference and related cooling electricity savings of air pollutant affected natural ventilation in commercial buildings across the US

Maintaining indoor air pollutants under acceptable levels is significant to protect occupants from exposure to excessive air pollutants in natural ventilation. In this paper, using the representative air pollutant concentration data, we present the natural ventilation usability with associated cooling energy saving potentials in different location settings (urban and city center, suburban and rural) of the US under the influence of local weather conditions and major outdoor air pollutants, i.e. PM2.5, PM10 and ozone. It is found that the impacts of air pollutants on natural ventilation are usually higher in urban/suburban areas than rural areas (up to 25% difference) with the PM2.5 being the most significant outdoor air pollutant affecting natural ventilation usage. Furthermore, ozone could become increasingly influential on natural ventilation as moving from urban to suburban/rural areas. As to the cooling energy saving considering the impacts of outdoor air pollutants, natural ventilation is estimated to save approximately 10%–40% cooling energy (800–2600 kWh per small commercial building) annually in different location settings of investigated areas across the US. The following economic analysis demonstrates that these electricity savings lead to approximately 80–540 dollars annual savings of building operation cost per building. If the time of use rate is adopted, these cost savings could further increase by approximately 20% (Los Angeles) to more than 50% (Albuquerque) depending on different rate structures, which further demonstrates the potential of adopting natural ventilation as a sustainability measurement with benefits for building owners without compromising occupants health.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Italian prototype building models for urban scale building performance simulation

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) seeks to evaluate strategies to optimize building energy use at urban scale to support a city's building energy goals. Prototype building models are usually developed to represent typical urban building characteristics of a specific use type, construction year, and climate zone, as detailed characteristics of individual buildings at urban scale are difficult to obtain. This study investigated the Italian building stock, developing 46 building prototypes, based on construction year, for residential and office buildings. The study included 16 single-family buildings, 16 multi-family buildings, and 14 office buildings. Building envelope properties and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system characteristics were defined according to existing building energy codes and standards for climatic zone E, which covers about half the Italian municipalities. Novel contributions of this study include (1) detailed specifications of prototype building energy models for Italian residential and office buildings that can be adopted by UBEM tools, and (2) a dataset in GeoJSON format of Italian urban buildings compiled from diverse data sources and national standards. Finally, the developed prototype building specifications, the building dataset, and the workflow can be applied to create other building prototypes and to support Italian national building energy efficiency and environmental goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗

Using hydrogen and ammonia for renewable energy storage: A geographically comprehensive techno-economic study

Hydrogen and, more recently, ammonia have received worldwide attention as energy storage media. In this work we investigate the economics of using each of these chemicals as well as the two in combination for islanded renewable energy supply systems in 15 American cities representing different climate regions throughout the country. We use an optimal combined capacity planning and scheduling model which minimizes the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by determining optimal unit selection and size along with unit commitments, production rates, and storage inventories for each period of system operation. These periods are aggregated from full year hourly resolution data via a consecutive temporal clustering algorithm. Ammonia is generally more economical than hydrogen as a single method of energy storage. Additionally, systems which use both hydrogen and ammonia outperform those which use only one storage option and have LCOE between $\$ 0.17$/kWh and $\$ 0.28$/kWh, including full investment in renewable generation infrastructure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Leveraging SETS resilience capabilities for safe-to-fail infrastructure under climate change

As the rehabilitation of infrastructure is outpaced by changes in the profile, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events, infrastructure’s service disruptions and failures become increasingly likely. Safe-to-fail approaches for infrastructure planning and design improve the capacity of cities to adapt for uncertain climate futures by identifying social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) capabilities to prepare for potential failure scenarios. In this work, we argue for transforming infrastructure planning and design to effectively utilize safe-to-fail approaches by navigating the opportunities and trade-offs of SETS resilience capabilities. From a technological vantage point, traditional infrastructure planning approaches account for social and ecological domains as external design conditions rather than embedded system characteristics. Safe-to-fail approaches directly challenge the isolation of the technological domain by necessitating a recognition that SETS domains are interconnected and interdependent in infrastructure systems, as such risks and system capabilities for resilience must be managed cohesively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗