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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Biomimetic Fly Eye Sensor for Real-Time Target Tracking

The project objective is to design, build, and demonstrate a biomimetic (inspired by biology) smart sensor based on the common house fly eye for real-time target tracking in three dimensions (3-D). The sensor makes use of revolutionary optical sensor design resulting in significantly improved motion detection capabilities when compared with conventional optical sensors. The design is motivated by the parallel nature of the flys vision system and its demonstrated hyperacuity or precision of visual localization beyond the conventional resolution limit. This means that the sensor is able to accurately detect very fast motion and small changes in motion. The analog architecture of the sensor allows for real-time solution at adjustable bandwidths depending on the application. The low cost, exceptionally lightweight, small form factor, low power requirements, and low computation requirements of the sensor make it ideally suited to many aeronautics applications that have limitations on weight, power, and processing time. The sensor is modular and can be easily adapted in scale and manufactured for a wide variety of sensing applications. Advanced target tracking algorithms will be developed to allow the sensor to track a target in 3-D. These algorithms will be implemented in the smart sensors hardware to enable real-time target tracking.

wing position measurement system↗
NASA NTRS2020

Cluster Difference Imaging Photometric Survey. II. TOI 837: A Young Validated Planet in IC 2602

We report the discovery of TOI 837b and its validation as a transiting planet. We characterize the system using data from the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission, the ESA Gaia mission, ground-based photometry from El Sauce and ASTEP400, and spectroscopy from CHIRON, FEROS, and Veloce. We find that TOI 837 is a T = 9.9 mag G0/F9 dwarf in the southern open cluster IC 2602. The star and planet are therefore 35(sup +11)(sub -5) million years old. Combining the transit photometry with a prior on the stellar parameters derived from the cluster color–magnitude diagram, we find that the planet has an orbital period of 8.3 days and is slightly smaller than Jupiter (R(sub p) = 0.77(sup + 0.09)(sub -0.07) R(sub Jup)). From radial velocity monitoring, we limit M(sub p) sin i to less than 1.20 M(sub Jup) (3σ). The transits either graze or nearly graze the stellar limb. Grazing transits are a cause for concern, as they are often indicative of astrophysical false-positive scenarios. Our follow-up data show that such scenarios are unlikely. Our combined multicolor photometry, high-resolution imaging, and radial velocities rule out hierarchical eclipsing binary scenarios. Background eclipsing binary scenarios, though limited by speckle imaging, remain a 0.2% possibility. TOI 837b is therefore a validated adolescent exoplanet. The planetary nature of the system can be confirmed or refuted through observations of the stellar obliquity and the planetary mass. Such observations may also improve our understanding of how the physical and orbital properties of exoplanets change in time.

Exoplanets↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Accuracy of Parameter Estimation in System Identification of Noisy Aircraft Load Measurement

This thesis focuses on the subject of the accuracy of parameter estimation and system identification techniques. Motivated by a complicated load measurement from NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, advanced system identification techniques are needed. The objective of this problem is to accurately predict the load experienced by the aircraft wing structure during flight determined from a set of calibrated load and gage response relationship. We can then model the problem as a black box input-output system identification from which the system parameter has to be estimated. Traditional LS (Least Square) techniques and the issues of noisy data and model accuracy are addressed. A statistical bound reflecting the change in residual is derived in order to understand the effects of the perturbations on the data. Due to the intrinsic nature of the LS problem, LS solution faces the dilemma of the trade off between model accuracy and noise sensitivity. A method of conflicting performance indices is presented, thus allowing us to improve the noise sensitivity while at the same time configuring the degredation of the model accuracy. SVD techniques for data reduction are studied and the equivalence of the Correspondence Analysis (CA) and Total Least Squares Criteria are proved. We also looked at nonlinear LS problems with NASA F-111 data set as an example. Conventional methods are neither easily applicable nor suitable for the specific load problem since the exact model of the system is unknown. Neural Network (NN) does not require prior information on the model of the system. This robustness motivated us to apply the NN techniques on our load problem. Simulation results for the NN methods used in both the single load and the 'warning signal' problems are both useful and encouraging. The performance of the NN (for single load estimate) is better than the LS approach, whereas no conventional approach was tried for the 'warning signals' problems. The NN design methodology is also presented. The use of SVD, CA and Collinearity Index methods are used to reduce the number of neurons in a layer.

Kong, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1995

Static stability of a three-dimensional space truss

In order to deploy large flexible space structures it is necessary to develop support systems that are strong and lightweight. The most recent example of this aerospace design need is vividly evident in the space station solar array assembly. In order to accommodate both weight limitations and strength performance criteria, ABLE Engineering has developed the Folding Articulating Square Truss (FASTMast) support structure. The FASTMast is a space truss/mechanism hybrid that can provide system support while adhering to stringent packaging demands. However, due to its slender nature and anticipated loading, stability characterization is a critical part of the design process. Furthermore, the dire consequences surely to result from a catastrophic instability quickly provide the motivation for careful examination of this problem. The fundamental components of the space station solar array system are the (1) solar array blanket system, (2) FASTMast support structure, and (3) mast canister assembly. The FASTMast once fully deployed from the canister will provide support to the solar array blankets. A unique feature of this structure is that the system responds linearly within a certain range of operating loads and nonlinearly when that range is exceeded. The source of nonlinear behavior in this case is due to a changing stiffness state resulting from an inability of diagonal members to resist applied loads. The principal objective of this study was to establish the failure modes involving instability of the FASTMast structure. Also of great interest during this effort was to establish a reliable analytical approach capable of effectively predicting critical values at which the mast becomes unstable. Due to the dual nature of structural response inherent to this problem, both linear and nonlinear analyses are required to characterize the mast in terms of stability. The approach employed herein is one that can be considered systematic in nature. The analysis begins with one and two-dimensional failure models of the system and its important components. From knowledge gained through preliminary analyses a foundation is developed for three-dimensional analyses of the FASTMast structure. The three-dimensional finite element (FE) analysis presented here involves a FASTMast system one-tenth the size of the actual flight unit. Although this study does not yield failure analysis results that apply directly to the flight article, it does establish a method by which the full-scale mast can be evaluated.

Shaker, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

UO2 microstructural evolutions induced by Ni, Mo, and W dopants for intentional forensics

The concept of tagging nuclear fuel with a chemical barcode to enable forensics analysis across the nuclear fuel cycle is an area of active investigation, particularly to ensure fabrication viability without disrupting current fuel performance. This study explored the feasibility of using Ni, Mo, and W isotopic double-spikes as dopants in UO2 fuel from the perspective of fuel fabrication. Doped UO2 pellets were produced using conventional fuel fabrication processes, including powder mixing, sieving, pressing, and sintering in a reductive atmosphere. Two composition levels, 100 and 1000 ppm, were evaluated for each dopant element with isotopic double-spike configurations. For the Ni system, additional dopant concentrations of 250 and 500 ppm were produced with nonperturbed isotopic ratios. The results demonstrated that successful incorporation of Ni, Mo, and W double-spikes into UO2 pellets occurred with minimal shift in final density or dopant loss during pellet fabrication. Isotopic analysis confirmed the presence of the double-spike signature even when diluted with natural isotopic material in ratio of 1:5 in the fabrication process. Microstructural examinations revealed different impacts on grain size compared with undoped UO2. This study showed that Ni incorporation up to ∼500 ppm promoted moderate grain growth, whereas the Mo and W systems caused grain size reduction at all concentrations. Changes in the UO2 lattice parameter as a function of composition were detected exclusively for Ni up to 500 ppm, indicating that the Ni solid solution was the main factor for the observed grain growth. Insoluble (Mo and W) or supersaturated (Ni > 500 ppm) conditions produced grain size reduction. The Ni-doped pellets in the solution range resulted in a final microstructure within fuel specifications, demonstrating its potential benefits of employing complex dopant systems for potential nuclear forensic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent Changes to U.S. Coal Plant Operations and Current Compensation Practices

Over the last decade, the U.S. electric power sector has gone through one of the most dramatic changes in its existence. The combination of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale gas revolution and significant reduction in construction and operating costs for renewable resources, in part due to federal tax credits such as the production tax credit and investment tax credit mainly benefitting wind and solar, respectively, has resulted in a significant shift away from coal-fired generation, and instead towards natural gas and renewable generation. Furthermore, the operating profile of existing coal-fired electric generating units has changed significantly. As new natural gas combined cycle plants have become increasingly more efficient and cheaper to operate than older existing coal-fired power plants, coal units continue to lose baseload generation share and more frequently operate as load-following, or cycling, resources. These trends are of particular importance to state public utility commissions. Functioning as economic regulators, commissions oversee investments in a reliable, efficient system while balancing emissions goals, customer demands, and other policy objectives. Changes to coal plant operations as a result of increased competition from other fuel sources may have a bearing on system reliability and economics, and therefore constitute an important area for commissions to monitor.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2004

Studying Biological Rhythms of Person's Skin-galvanic Reaction and Dynamics of Light Transmission by Isomeric Substance in Space Flight Conditions

Intensity and amplitude of human functional systems and human most important organs are wavelike, rhythmic by nature. These waves have constant periodicity, phase and amplitude. The mentioned characteristics can vary, however their variations have a pronounced reiteration in the course of time. This indicates a hashing of several wave processes and their interference. Stochastic changes in wave processes characteristics of a human organism are explained either by 'pulsations' associated with hashing (superposition) of several wave processes and their interference, or by single influence of environmental physical factors on a human organism. Human beings have respectively periods of higher and lower efficiency, state of health and so on, depending not only of environmental factors, but also of 'internal' rhythmic factor. Sometimes peaks and falls periodicity of some or other characteristics is broken. Disturbance of steady-state biological rhythms is usually accompanied by reduction of activity steadiness of the most important systems of a human organism. In its turn this has an effect on organism's adaptation to changing living conditions as well as on general condition and efficiency of a human being. The latter factor is very important for space medicine. Biological rhythmology is a special branch of biology and medicine, it studies rhythmic activity mechanisms of organs, their systems, individuals and species. Appropriate researches were also carried out in space medicine.

Glushko, Vladimir↗
NASA NTRS1977

Data processing system and interfacing elements time base analysis

The processing of time in the Orbiter System Services software and the associated facilities provided to the user community are described. The descriptions are directed toward showing the functional intent of the design rather than the actual implementation. Simplified flow diagrams are included. Based upon detailed analysis of a preliminary review copy of the Approach and Landing Test (ALT) System Software Detailed Design Specification and the Program Listings for Version 17 Prime, the processing of time has the potential for error free operations. The processing of time is not expected to change between ALT and the Operational Flight Test (OFT) other than differences in value of some constants for control and limit checking. Due to the dynamic nature of onboard time processing and its criticality to the successful operation of the orbiter, it is recommended that a comprehensive list of external variables, their locations, initial values, and a 'where used' listing be produced, as a by-product of the link edit process, for all non-HAL coding. In addition, a careful review of the verification test procedures for the System Services time-related software is recommended.

Blackburn, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Importance of Modeling Carbon Dioxide Transportation and Geologic Storage in Energy System Planning Tools

Energy system planning tools suggest that the cost and feasibility of climate-stabilizing energy transitions are sensitive to the cost of CO 2 capture and storage processes (CCS), but the representation of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage in these tools is often simple or non-existent. We develop the capability of producing dynamic-reservoir-simulation-based geologic CO 2 storage supply curves with the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO 2 T) and use it with the ReEDS electric sector planning model to investigate the effects of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage representation on energy system planning tool results. We use a locational case study of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Our results suggest that the cost of geologic CO 2 storage may be as low as $3/tCO 2 and that site-level assumptions may affect this cost by several dollars per tonne. At the grid level, the cost of geologic CO 2 storage has generally smaller effects compared to other assumptions (e.g., natural gas price), but small variations in this cost can change results (e.g., capacity deployment decisions) when policy renders CCS marginally competitive. The cost of CO 2 transportation generally affects the location of geologic CO 2 storage investment more than the quantity of CO 2 captured or the location of electricity generation investment. We conclude with a few recommendations for future energy system researchers when modeling CCS. For example, assuming a cost for geologic CO 2 storage (e.g., $5/tCO 2 ) may be less consequential compared to assuming free storage by excluding it from the model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observing Chemical and Morphological Changes in a Cu@TiO x Core@Shell Catalyst: Impact of Reversible Metal-Oxide Interactions on CO 2 Activation and Hydrogenation

A combination of several in-situ techniques (XRD, XAS, AP-XPS, E-TEM) was used to explore links between the structural and chemical properties of a Cu@TiO x catalyst under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. The active phase of the catalyst involved an inverse oxide/metal configuration, but the initial core@shell motif was disrupted during the pre-treatment in H 2 . As a consequence of strong metal-support interactions, the titania shell cracked and Cu particles migrated from the core to on top of the oxide with the simultaneous formation of a Cu-Ti-O x phase. The generated Cu particles had a diameter of 20-40 nm and were decorated by small clusters of TiO x (< 5 nm in size). Results of in-situ XAS and XRD and images of E-TEM showed a very dynamic system, where the inverse oxide/metal configuration promoted the reactivity of the system towards CO 2 and H 2 . At room temperature, CO 2 oxidized the Cu nanoparticles (CO 2,gas → CO gas + O oxide ) inducing a redistribution of the TiO x clusters and big modifications in catalyst surface morphology. The generated oxide overlayer disappeared at elevated temperatures (> 180 °C) upon exposure to H 2 , producing a transient surface that was very active for the reverse water-gas shift reaction (CO 2 + H 2 → CO + H 2 O) but was not stable at 250 °C. When oxidation and reduction occurred at the same time, under a mixture of CO 2 and H 2 , the surface structure evolved toward a dynamic equilibrium that strongly depended on the temperature. Neither CO 2 nor H 2 can be considered as passive reactants. In the Cu@TiO x system, morphological changes were linked to variations in the composition of metal-oxide interfaces which were reversible with temperature or chemical environment and affected the catalytic activity of the system. Finally, the present study illustrates the dynamic nature of phenomena associated with the trapping and conversion of CO 2 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distribution of nickel(II) ions adsorbed at the muscovite mica (001)-water interface determined by in-situ resonant anomalous X-ray reflectivity

Mineral-water interfaces mediate adsorption, ion exchange, and secondary mineral formation that control element mobility in natural and engineered systems. Reliable prediction and control of these processes require a fundamental understanding of the interfacial structure that links adsorbed ion speciation to macroscopic sorption capacity and strength. Here, we determine atomic-scale changes in hydration and distribution of Ni(II) at the muscovite mica (001)-water interface using in situ high-resolution X-ray reflectivity (XR) and resonant anomalous X-ray reflectivity (RAXR) at 1 mM NiCl2 and pH 5.7. XR reveals reorganization of the primary hydration structure relative to that in deionized water: the water layer adsorbed in the cavity sites at a height of ~1.3 Å disappears, while distinct solution layers emerge at ~2.3, ~4.1, and ~5.6 Å above the basal oxygen plane. RAXR resolves three interfacial Ni(II) species: a dominant outer-sphere complex at 3.65 Å (~80% of the total coverage), a minor inner-sphere complex at 0.75 Å, and a low-coverage, more distant outer-sphere species at 5.63 Å. These three adsorbed Ni(II) species account for a total Ni(II) coverage of 0.54 ± 0.02 ion per unit cell area that compensates for the surface charge. These results highlight the role of interfacial hydration in controlling the speciation and stability of adsorbate cations on the negatively charged mica surface, providing quantitative insight into predicting the geochemical behavior of divalent metal cations in the aqueous environments.

Lee, Sang Soo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Characterization of a Lens-Coupled System for Dynamic X-Ray Diffraction

X-ray diffraction (XRD) is a necessary technique for understanding states of materials under static and dynamic loading conditions. The higher-pressure Equation of State (EOS) of many materials can only be explored via shock or ramp compression at temperatures and pressures of interest. While static XRD work has yielded EOS measurements in the 100 - 200 GPa regime, dynamic X-ray diffraction (DXRD) can explore EOS phases in the TPa regime, which closely resembles inner-core planetary conditions. DXRD hinges on the ability to measure the exact phase or phase change of a material while under dynamic loading conditions. Macroscopic diagnostic systems (e.g. velocimetry and pyrometry) can infer a phase change but not identify the specific phase entered by a material. While microscopic (atomic-level) diagnostic systems (e.g. DXRD) have been designed and implemented in Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Laboratories complex, the unique nature of Sandia National Laboratories’ Pulsed Power Facility (Z Machine) prohibits the use of such devices. The destructive nature of Z experiments presents a challenge to data capture and retrieval. Furthermore there are electromagnetic interference, X-ray background, and mechanical constraints to consider. Thus, a multi-part X-ray diagnostic for use on the Z Machine and Z-Beamlet Laser system has been designed and analyzed. Portions of this new DYnamic SCintillator Optic (DYSCO) have been built, tested and fielded. A data analysis software has been written. Finally, the radiance profile of the DYSCO’s scintillator has been characterized through experiments performed at the University of Arizona.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1982

Earth Resources: A continuing bibliography with indexes, issue 33

This bibliography list 436 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System. Emphasis is placed on the use of remote sensing and geophysical instrumentation in spacecraft and aircraft to survey and inventory natural resources and urban areas. Subject matter is grouped according to agriculture and forestry, environmental changes and cultural resources, geodesy and cartography, geology and mineral resources, hydrology and water management, data processing and distribution sytems, instrumentation and sensors, and economic analysis.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

The NASA Astrobiology Roadmap

The NASA Astrobiology Roadmap provides guidance for research and technology development across the NASA enterprises that encompass the space, Earth, and biological sciences. The ongoing development of astrobiology roadmaps embodies the contributions of diverse scientists and technologists from government, universities, and private institutions. The Roadmap addresses three basic questions: How does life begin and evolve, does life exist elsewhere in the universe, and what is the future of life on Earth and beyond? Seven Science Goals outline the following key domains of investigation: understanding the nature and distribution of habitable environments in the universe, exploring for habitable environments and life in our own solar system, understanding the emergence of life, determining how early life on Earth interacted and evolved with its changing environment, understanding the evolutionary mechanisms and environmental limits of life, determining the principles that will shape life in the future, and recognizing signatures of life on other worlds and on early Earth. For each of these goals, Science Objectives outline more specific high-priority efforts for the next 3-5 years. These 18 objectives are being integrated with NASA strategic planning.

Exobiology/methods/trends↗
NASA NTRS2013

From BASE-ASIA Toward 7-SEAS: A Satellite-Surface Perspective of Boreal Spring Biomass-Burning Aerosols and Clouds in Southeast Asia

In this paper, we present recent field studies conducted by NASA's SMART-COMMIT (and ACHIEVE, to be operated in 2013) mobile laboratories, jointly with distributed ground-based networks (e.g., AERONET, http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/ and MPLNET, http://mplnet.gsfc.nasa.gov/) and other contributing instruments over northern Southeast Asia. These three mobile laboratories, collectively called SMARTLabs (cf. http://smartlabs.gsfc.nasa.gov/, Surface-based Mobile Atmospheric Research & Testbed Laboratories) comprise a suite of surface remote sensing and in-situ instruments that are pivotal in providing high spectral and temporal measurements, complementing the collocated spatial observations from various Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. A satellite-surface perspective and scientific findings, drawn from the BASE-ASIA (2006) field deployment as well as a series of ongoing 7-SEAS (2010-13) field activities over northern Southeast Asia are summarized, concerning (i) regional properties of aerosols from satellite and in situ measurements, (ii) cloud properties from remote sensing and surface observations, (iii) vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds, and (iv) regional aerosol radiative effects and impact assessment. The aerosol burden over Southeast Asia in boreal spring, attributed to biomass burning, exhibits highly consistent spatial and temporal distribution patterns, with major variability arising from changes in the magnitude of the aerosol loading mediated by processes ranging from large-scale climate factors to diurnal meteorological events. Downwind from the source regions, the tightly coupled-aerosolecloud system provides a unique, natural laboratory for further exploring the micro- and macro-scale relationships of the complex interactions. The climatic significance is presented through large-scale anti-correlations between aerosol and precipitation anomalies, showing spatial and seasonal variability, but their precise cause-and-effect relationships remain an open-ended question. To facilitate an improved understanding of the regional aerosol radiative effects, which continue to be one of the largest uncertainties in climate forcing, a joint international effort is required and anticipated to commence in springtime 2013 in northern Southeast Asia.

biomass burning aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗