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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Charge Movement and Structural Changes in the Gas-Phase Unfolding of Multimeric Protein Complexes Captured by Native Top-Down Mass Spectrometry

The extent to which noncovalent protein complexes retain native structure in the gas phase is highly dependent on experimental conditions. Energetic collisions with background gas can cause structural changes ranging from unfolding to subunit dissociation. Additionally, recent studies have highlighted the role of charge in such structural changes, but the mechanism is not completely understood. In this study, native top down (native TD) mass spectrometry was used to probe gas-phase structural changes of alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH, 4mer) under varying degrees of in-source activation. Changes in covalent backbone fragments produced by electron capture dissociation (ECD) or 193 nm ultraviolet photodissociation (UVPD) were correlated to structural changes of the ADH 4mer. ECD fragments indicated unfolding started at the N-terminus, and the charge states of UVPD fragments enabled monitoring of charge migration to the unfolded regions. Interestingly, UVPD fragments also indicated that the charge at the “unfolding” N-terminus of ADH decreased at high in-source activation energies after the initial increase. We proposed a possible “refolding-after-unfolding” mechanism, as further supported by monitoring hydrogen elimination from radical a-ions produced by UVPD at the N-terminus of ADH. However, “refolding-after-unfolding” with increasing in-source activation was not observed for charge-reduced ADH, which likely adopted compact structures that are resistant to both charge migration and unfolding. Combined, these results support a charge-directed unfolding mechanism for protein complexes. Overall, an experimental framework was outlined for utilizing native TD to generate structure-informative mass spectral signatures for protein complexes that complement other structure characterization techniques, such as ion mobility spectrometry and computational modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structural Changes in YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 Thin Films Modified with He + -Focused Ion Beam for High-Temperature Superconductive Nanoelectronics

Irradiation of high-temperature superconductor YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 (YBCO) with high-energy He + ions is known to cause structural changes in the YBCO film, decreasing the critical temperature T C and finally leading to a superconductor-to-insulator transition. Here, this allows one to pattern narrow insulating regions with a focused ion beam (FIB) and thus fabricate nanoscale Josephson junctions on YBCO films. Moreover, such ion irradiation is known to cause structural changes in the YBCO film. However, details of how these structural changes occur in nanoscale devices produced by FIB remain unknown. Using nanofocus X-ray diffraction, we study the changes in the YBCO crystal lattice and investigate how the nature of these changes depends on the size of the irradiated regions. These data provide an important understanding of how oxide superconductors can be tailored at the nanometer scale for various applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arene Substitution Design for Controlled Conformational Changes of Dibenzocycloocta-1,5-dienes

We report that the agile eight-mernbered cycloalkane can be stabilized by fusing two rigid benzene rings, substituted with proper functional groups. The conformational change of dibenzocycloocta-1,S-diene (DBCOD), a rigid-flexible-rigidorganic moiety, from Boat to Chair conformation requires an activation energy of 42 kJ/mol that is substantially lower than that of existing submolecular shape-changing unit. Experimental data corroborated by theory calculations demonstrate that intramolecular hydrogen bonding can stabilize Boat whereas electron repulsive interaction from opposing ester substituents favors Chair. Intramolecular hydrogen bonding, formed by 1,10-diamide substitution stabilizes Boat, spiking the temperature at which Boat and Chair can readily interchange from -60 °C to 60 °C. Concomitantly this intramolecular attraction raises the energy barrier from 42 kJ/mol of unsubstituted DBCOD to 68 kJ/mol of diamide-substituted DBCOD. Remarkably, this value falls within the range of the activation energy of highly efficient enzyme catalyzed biological reactions. With shape changes once considered only possible with high-energy, our work reveals a potential pathway exemplified by a specific submolecular structure to achieve low-energy driven shape changes for the first time. Together with intrinsic cycle stability and high energy output systems that would have incurred damage under high-energy stimuli, could particularly benefit from this new kind of low-energy driven shape-changing mechanism. This work has laid the basis to construct systems for low-energy driven stimuli-responsive applications, hitherto a challenge to overcome.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene

Abstract Iron can be a growth‐limiting nutrient for phytoplankton, modifying rates of net primary production, nitrogen fixation, and carbon export ‐ highlighting the importance of new iron inputs from the atmosphere. The bioavailable iron fraction depends on the emission source and the dissolution during transport. The impacts of anthropogenic combustion and land use change on emissions from industrial, domestic, shipping, desert, and wildfire sources suggest that Northern Hemisphere soluble iron deposition has likely been enhanced between 2% and 68% over the Industrial Era. If policy and climate follow the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 trajectory, then results suggest that Southern Ocean (>30°S) soluble iron deposition would be enhanced between 63% and 95% by 2100. Marine net primary productivity and carbon export within the open ocean are most sensitive to changes in soluble iron deposition in the Southern Hemisphere; this is predominantly driven by fire rather than dust iron sources. Changes in iron deposition cause large perturbations to the marine nitrogen cycle, up to 70% increase in denitrification and 15% increase in nitrogen fixation, but only modestly impacts the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (1–3 ppm). Regionally, primary productivity increases due to increased iron deposition are often compensated by offsetting decreases downstream corresponding to equivalent changes in the rate of phytoplankton macronutrient uptake, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. These effects are weaker in the Southern Ocean, suggesting that changes in iron deposition in this region dominates the global carbon cycle and climate response.

Hamilton, Douglas S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

River Regulation Alleviates the Impacts of Climate Change on US Thermoelectricity Production

Climate change and anthropogenic activities can both influence stream temperature, which is a critical indicator of thermoelectric power generation potential. Previous studies emphasized the vulnerability of power-generation systems to climate warming (ref 1, 2). Despite the fact that two-thirds of the global rivers are regulated by dams (ref 3), the relative impacts of water management and climate change on stream temperature and thermoelectric production have not yet been evaluated. Using an integrated modeling system applied to the conterminous United States, simulations confirm the dominant role of climate change in shaping the future trends of stream temperature. However, water management, reservoir regulation in particular, can mitigate the stream temperature warming and reduce the frequency and magnitude of extreme high stream temperatures through redistribution of the seasonal streamflow. Moreover, water management can alleviate the loss of power plant usable capacity from climate change to the level of reduced warming from emission mitigation. By regulating the flow and temperature regimes, water management is a promising adaptation measure to alleviate climate change induced effects in the water-energy nexus.

Zhang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting Recent and Future ITCZ Changes from Distinct Tropical Warming Patterns

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a salient feature of the Earth’s deep-tropical circulation. Here we report and explain the contrasting changes in seasonal ITCZs over recent decades and under future warming. We show that seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward and narrowed over recent decades but are projected to shift equatorward and widen under future warming. Such contrasting changes are induced by distinct surface warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled over recent decades with phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but in the future it will experience stronger anthropogenic warming than the tropical mean. The effect of surface warming pattern on ITCZ is consistently explained by thermodynamic and energetic theories and is demonstrated through atmosphere-only simulations forced with prescribed SST. In the coming decades, PDO may change into a positive phase. This will enhance the equatorial warming and lead to amplified ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends.

Zhou, Wenyu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

Abstract Subseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.

Mayer, Kirsten J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record-breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show non-monotonic changes of the space-time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20~40 % or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non-monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100-1000 km 2 ) and temporal scales (less than 6 hours) rather than over the entire domain (~10 4 km 2 ) and aggregated over the storm duration (around two days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Furthermore, atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short-duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near–Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model

The Arctic is undergoing a pronounced and rapid transformation in response to changing greenhouse gasses, including reduction in sea ice extent and thickness. There are also projected increases in near-surface Arctic wind. This study addresses how the winds trends may be driven by changing surface roughness and/or stability in different Arctic regions and seasons, something that has not yet been thoroughly investigated. We analyze 50 experiments from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and five experiments using CESM2 with an artificially decreased sea ice roughness to match that of the open ocean. We find that with a smoother surface there are higher mean wind speeds and slower mean ice speeds in the autumn, winter, and spring. The artificially reduced surface roughness also strongly impacts the wind speed trends in autumn and winter, and we find that atmospheric stability changes are also important contributors to driving wind trends in both experiments. In contrast to the clear impacts on winds, the sea ice mean state and trends are statistically indistinguishable, suggesting that near-surface winds are not major drivers of Arctic sea ice loss. Two major results of this work are: (a) the near-surface wind trends are driven by changes in both surface roughness and near-surface atmospheric stability that are themselves changing from sea ice loss, and (b) the sea ice mean state and trends are driven by the overall warming trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and not significantly impacted by coupled feedbacks with the surface winds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗