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At least 595 records · Page 33

Spokane Eco-District Campus Performance Under Alternative Electricity Rates: Benefits for virtual power plant participants and suppliers

Here, the respective benefits for virtual power plant participants and suppliers are revealed and compared under alternative electricity rate structures, including conventional large commercial electricity rates, large commercial electricity rates with special rates for demand-side generation, and dynamic hourly transactive prices. These three scenarios were explored using the capabilities of the Eco-District campus, a virtual power plant in Spokane, Washington, that is supplied electricity by Avista Utilities. The Eco-District Campus was modeled to host solar power generation, battery energy storage, and thermal energy resources that must be coordinated with building heating and cooling needs. First, the electricity supplier’s costs for energy, infrastructure, and energy losses were modeled. Then, the virtual power plant’s performance was modeled while presuming that its manager would minimize its costs under its electricity rate structure. The demand charges of conventional commercial electricity rates managed monthly peak, as would be expected, but hourly dynamic transactive pricing resulted in a striking alignment between the costs incurred by the supplier and the virtual power plant’s energy costs.

Electricity rates↗

Analyzing the Multiscale Impacts of Implementing Energy-Efficient HVAC Improvements Through Energy Audits and Economic Input–Output Analysis

Abstract Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are usually an industry’s highest consumer of energy, most of which goes toward space cooling in buildings. Industrial energy-efficiency audits not only benefit manufacturers but also generate significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. This article analyzes the micro- and macro scale impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC systems by integrating the industrial building energy data with the macroeconomic regional economic flow model. Micro-scale data include 10 years of historical energy, cost, and carbon dioxide savings achieved from energy-efficient HVAC implementation offered to manufacturers through industrial energy audits. The data were integrated into the macroeconomic modeling framework to illuminate the cascading regional economic impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC recommendations in manufacturing facilities. Results show that if recommendations had been implemented throughout all manufacturers in the region, $656 M energy costs would have been directly saved, 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would have been avoided, and 4387 jobs could have been created, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $899 M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced impacts. The results offer insight into how industrial energy systems can be designed and provide models for how communities can accomplish a net-zero society.

Energy & Fuels↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Packages in KAC (2021 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 16 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 and non3013 containers in storage from 15 years to 20 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 20 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in these calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 20 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 20 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC (2022 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 17 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 °F (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. Due to differences in containers, 9975 packages with non-3013 containers are only approved for 20 years of storage. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 °F, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of non-conforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2023 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 18 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2024 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 19 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Commercial Zero Code Plug-In: Zero Energy and Operational Emissions Overlay for Model Energy Codes (Technical Brief)

Model energy codes (MEC) describe requirements needed to demonstrate building energy performance compliance. They can be readily adopted by states and local jurisdictions to support desirable energy efficiency investment in new buildings and major renovations. This report provides commercial building energy code language as an overlay to current MEC, which is recognized by the U.S. DOE as ASHRAE Standard 90.1 2022. The code language provides a performance-based compliance path for achieving net zero energy or net zero operational energy emissions buildings with MEC. The path requires meeting two compliance metric target values: 1) a required minimum level of efficiency and 2) a measure of zero energy or emissions. The supporting documentation illustrates the magnitude of needed efficiency improvement and the additional offsets to be achieved from renewable energy sources.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DEMO-FTES: Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage in Crystalline Rock Formations (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project investigated the feasibility of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) as a seasonal energy storage solution in crystalline rock formations. FTES leverages hydraulically induced fractures to exchange heat between circulating fluids and the surrounding rock mass, enabling long-term thermal energy retention due to the high specific heat and low thermal conductivity of rock. This approach has the potential to reduce heating and cooling energy demands and enhance building energy resilience. The project combined dimensional analysis, numerical modeling, laboratory experiments, and meso-scale field tests to evaluate FTES performance and advance its technology readiness level from 3 to 5. Scaling analysis identified key dimensionless parameters governing heat transfer and fluid flow, ensuring laboratory and field tests were representative of larger-scale systems. Numerical simulations using TOUGH and iTOUGH2 frameworks supported experiment design and interpretation, modeling fracture geometry, thermal-hydraulic behavior, and thermo-mechanical coupling. Laboratory tests at EPFL involved creating single and multiple fractures in 25 cm cubic samples of Gabbro and Granite under true triaxial stress.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Automated Progress Monitoring in Modular Construction Factories Using Computer Vision and Building Information Modeling

Modular construction methods have recently gained interest due to the advantages offered in terms of safety, quality, and productivity for projects. In this method, a significant portion of the construction is performed off-site in factories where modular components are built in different workstations, assembled on the production line, and shipped to the site for installation. Due to the labor-intensive nature of tasks, cycle times in modular construction factories are highly variable, which commonly leads to major bottlenecks and delays in construction projects. To remedy this effect, recent methods rely on sensors such as RFID to monitor the production process, which is reportedly expensive, and intrusive to the work process. Recently, computer vision-based methods have been proposed to track the production process in modular construction factories. However, these methods overlook monitoring the assembly process on the production line. Therefore, this paper presents a method to monitor the assembly process by integrating computer vision-based methods with Building Information Modeling (BIM). The proposed method detects the modular units using object segmentation; superimposes the installation area with the corresponding 2D region using BIM, and identifies the installation of the components using image processing techniques. The proposed method has been validated using surveillance videos captured from a modular construction factory in the US. Successful implementation of the proposed method can lead to timely identification of delays during the assembly process and reduce delays in modular integrated construction projects.

building information modeling↗

Energy Prediction under Changed Demand Conditions: Robust Machine Learning Models and Input Feature Combinations

Deciding on a suitable algorithm for energy demand prediction in a building is non-trivial and depends on the availability of data. In this paper we compare four machine learning models, commonly found in the literature, in terms of their generalization performance and in terms of how using different sets of input features affects accuracy. This is tested on a data set where consumption patterns differ significantly between training and evaluation because of the Covid-19 pandemic. We provide a hands-on guide and supply a Python framework for building operators to adapt and use in their applications.

Schranz, Thomas↗

LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry

Since their advent over 2 decades ago, autonomous Argo floats have revolutionized the field of oceanography, and, more recently, the addition of biogeochemical and biological sensors to these floats has greatly improved our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and oxygen cycling in the ocean. While Argo floats offer unprecedented horizontal, vertical, and temporal coverage of the global ocean, uncertainties remain about whether Argo sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability in physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. As the true distributions of, e.g., temperature or oxygen are unknown, these uncertainties remain difficult to address with Argo floats alone. Numerical models with synthetic observing systems offer one potential avenue to address these uncertainties. Here, we implement synthetic biogeochemical Argo floats into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), which build on the Lagrangian In Situ Global High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT) module in E3SMv2 (E3SMv2-LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0). Since the synthetic floats sample the model fields at model run time, the end user defines the sampling protocol ahead of any model simulation, including the number and distribution of synthetic floats to be deployed, their sampling frequency, and the prognostic or diagnostic model fields to be sampled. Using a 6-year proof-of-concept simulation, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic floats in different case studies. In particular, we quantify the impact of (i) sampling density on the float-derived detection of deep-ocean change in temperature or oxygen and on float-derived estimates of phytoplankton phenology, (ii) sampling frequency and sea-ice cover on float trajectory lengths and hence float-derived estimates of current velocities, and (iii) short-term variability in ecosystem stressors on estimates of their seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential Building Stock Characterization in Palm Beach County, Florida

This building stock characterizations is intended to help Palm Beach County (PBC) Office of Resilience (OOR) and municipalities composing the Municipal Resilience Partnership prioritize building energy efficiency investments to reduce energy costs and increase resilience for the county's most vulnerable residents. The analysis utilizes NREL’s ResStock model to characterize PBC’s residential building stock, including building type, renter/owner status, size (square footage), age of buildings (vintage), HVAC system types, and, for multi-family buildings, number of units. Building energy efficiency, weatherization, and electrification upgrade packages were assessed for approximate cost, customer bill-savings, and emissions reductions potential and findings will help guide OOR financial assistance program design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

COGIHTO: Comprehensive Geothermal Integrated HVAC Retrofits in Disadvantaged Communities

Geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) systems offer one of the most efficient approaches to provide space conditioning and water heating in buildings. Due to the relatively stable temperature of the ground year-round, these systems can provide an efficient solution to decarbonize heating systems. Yet this technology has faced limited market adoption due to its high first cost. This project seeks to address this barrier by designing a community GHC system at a public housing development in New York, taking advantage of load diversity (in terms of the timing and amount of heating / cooling used per person) that a larger community offers to reduce the size and thus first cost of a GHC system. Project success would result in societal benefit from reduced energy and fossil fuel use, reduced local emissions, and improved comfort, which would positively impact the health and well-being this community. This report presents the findings from Phase 1 project supported by the Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office and includes the technical design of a GHC at a public housing development in New York. To support the success of a potential deployment of a GHC system, the team conducted community engagement and prepared an assessment of the local workforce needs. The project team, led by EPRI, considered a subset of NYCHA housing developments that were previously identified by NYCHA as suitable for GHC retrofits. This report presents the site selection criteria the team developed and the overall score assigned to each of the eight developments considered. One site was selected for focus of the technical design: Stapleton Houses in Staten Island, a mid-size development with roughly 700 apartments across 6 buildings. The site has an existing hot water hydronic loop served by natural gas boilers for space heating and water heating. The technical design partner assessed baseline energy consumption at the site and established thermal models of the apartment buildings to assist in the design. The team considered several GHC system configurations and selected a hybrid geothermal design fed from water-source heat pumps with auxiliary gas boilers in a central plant. This design best leveraged the existing site configuration and minimized costs due to additional electrical infrastructure upgrades. The report also details the feedback received from community engagement efforts and the findings from the workforce needs assessment and workforce transition plan. Members of the site maintenance staff and the resident advisory council were interviewed for their input and feedback about both the site’s existing heating/cooling infrastructure and how a construction project would impact resident life. This feedback was taken into consideration when completing the geothermal system design. Research was conducted into existing workforce development opportunities available to NYCHA residents. A workforce development plan was established using information from NYCHA’s resident economic empowerment and sustainability group, along with training material and curriculum from the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modelica-based modeling and simulation of district cooling systems: A case study

While equation-based object-oriented modeling language Modelica can evaluate practical energy improvements for district cooling systems, few have adopted Modelica for this type of large-scale thermo-fluid system. Further, to our best knowledge, district cooling modeling studies have yet to include hydraulics in piping networks alongside plant models featuring realistic mechanical systems and controls. These are critical details to include when looking to make energy and control improvements in many physical system installations. To fill these gaps, this study released new open-source district cooling models at the Modelica Buildings Library and leveraged these models for a real-world case study at the University of Colorado Boulder. Here, the site includes six buildings connected to a central chiller plant featuring a waterside economizer. Several energy saving strategies are pursued based on the validated model, including control setpoint optimization, equipment modification, and pump setpoint adjustments. Results indicate that a combination of the studied measures can save the campus annually 84.6 MWh of energy, 8.9% of electricity costs, 58.0 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, while the waterside economizer cuts down chillers’ run times by 201 days/year, reducing maintenance costs and extending chiller life.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cellular Shade Energy Savings in a Commercial Setting

Windows cause approximately 1.7 quad of heating and cooling energy consumption in the United States. This energy consumption can be reduced by using high-efficiency window attachments. Common Venetian blinds and planar shades, such as roller shades, might block solar radiation, but they do not provide a significant improvement to window system thermal transmittance. Cellular shades have better thermal performance compared to other shading devices because of the honeycomb structure that traps air in pockets to create thermal insulation. However, evaluating the energy savings potential of cellular shades using experimental testing in commercial settings is limited. Moreover, the effect of cellular shades on daylighting and glare is yet to be evaluated using field testing. In this study, experimental testing of cellular shades was performed in a real building with emulated occupancy for both a cooling and a heating season. Compared with a room without shades, the use of cellular shades in experimental testing showed incremental energy savings of 4.6% to 9.4% for cooling and higher than 20% for heating. The experimental data were used to calibrate the baseline energy model and validate the cellular shades model. Annual simulation of cellular shades was performed for a medium office prototype building using the validated cellular shades model. The annual simulation was performed in Phoenix, Nashville, and Rochester. The annual savings for HVAC energy was 25% for Phoenix, 27% for Nashville, and 19% for Rochester.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A framework for estimating the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement

Energy-related occupant behaviour in buildings has demonstrated considerable energy-saving potential. However, the current modelling method of occupant behaviour does not give sufficient considerations on the implementation difficulty of behaviour and provide a holistic map from survey data to various behaviour models. This article proposes a holistic survey-and-simulation-based framework for estimating the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement. In the framework, seven typical categories of occupant behaviour models are identified based on the survey results. According to the implementation difficulty, the models are integrated into four behaviour styles (baseline, wasteful, moderate and austere) to represent different levels of energy-saving consciousness of occupants. Based on a case study with a nationwide survey in Singapore, there are remarkable energy savings potential if occupant behaviour is improved; the building energy consumption can be reduced by up to 9.5% with the moderate behaviour improvement, and up to 21.0% with the aggressive behaviour improvement. The simulation results accord well with the measured results within a reasonable range of deviation. The framework can be applied to estimate the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement in a building with affordable cost, and the findings can inform a behaviour improvement programme with effective and efficient measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗