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At least 595 records · Page 33

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

Supersonic tests of an 0.015 scale space shuttle mated vehicle model (67-OTS) in the LaRC UPWT to obtain aerodynamic force data (IA42A/B)

Wind tunnel tests were conducted of the NASA/Rockwell 0.015 scale configuration 4 mated space shuttle vehicle. Data were obtained for a range of Mach numbers from 1.60 to 4.63 and angles of attack from minus 10 degrees to plus 10 degrees. A complete model build-up was performed. Longitudinal and lateral directional stability and control data were obtained for the tank alone, tank plus solid rocket boosters, and mated configuration of tank plus orbiter plus solid rocket boosters. Single component rudder hinge moment data were obtained at rudder deflections of zero degrees and minus 20 degrees for each Mach number tested.

Hardin, R.↗

Science Benefits of Onboard Spacecraft Navigation

Primitive bodies (asteroids and comets), which have remained relatively unaltered since their formation, are important targets for scientific missions that seek to understand the evolution of the solar system. Often the first step is to fly by these bodies with robotic spacecraft. The key to maximizing data returns from these flybys is to determine the spacecraft trajectory relative to the target body-in short, navigate the spacecraft- with sufficient accuracy so that the target is guaranteed to be in the instruments' field of view. The most powerful navigation data in these scenarios are images taken by the spacecraft of the target against a known star field (onboard astrometry). Traditionally, the relative trajectory of the spacecraft must be estimated hours to days in advance using images collected by the spacecraft. This is because of (1)!the long round-trip light times between the spacecraft and the Earth and (2)!the time needed to downlink and process navigation data on the ground, make decisions based on the result, and build and uplink instrument pointing sequences from the results. The light time and processing time compromise navigation accuracy considerably, because there is not enough time to use more accurate data collected closer to the target-such data are more accurate because the angular capability of the onboard astrometry is essentially constant as the distance to the target decreases, resulting in better "plane-of- sky" knowledge of the target. Excellent examples of these timing limitations are high-speed comet encounters. Comets are difficult to observe up close; their orbits often limit scientists to brief, rapid flybys, and their coma further restricts viewers from seeing the nucleus in any detail, unless they can view the nucleus at close range. Comet nuclei details are typically discernable for much shorter durations than the roundtrip light time to Earth, so robotic spacecraft must be able to perform onboard navigation. This onboard navigation can be accomplished through a self- contained system that by eliminating light time restrictions dramatically improves the relative trajectory knowledge and control and subsequently increases the amount of quality data collected. Flybys are one-time events, so the system's underlying algorithms and software must be extremely robust. The autonomous software must also be able to cope with the unknown size, shape, and orientation of the previously unseen comet nucleus. Furthermore, algorithms must be reliable in the presence of imperfections and/or damage to onboard cameras accrued after many years of deep-space operations. The AutoNav operational flight software packages, developed by scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under contract with NASA, meet all these requirements. They have been directly responsible for the successful encounters on all of NASA's close-up comet-imaging missions (see Figure !1). AutoNav is the only system to date that has autonomously tracked comet nuclei during encounters and performed autonomous interplanetary navigation. AutoNav has enabled five cometary flyby missions (Table!1) residing on four NASA spacecraft provided by three different spacecraft builders. Using this software, missions were able to process a combined total of nearly 1000 images previously unseen by humans. By eliminating the need to navigate spacecraft from Earth, the accuracy gained by AutoNav during flybys compared to ground-based navigation is about 1!order of magnitude in targeting and 2!orders of magnitude in time of flight. These benefits ensure that pointing errors do not compromise data gathered during flybys. In addition, these benefits can be applied to flybys of other solar system objects, flybys at much slower relative velocities, mosaic imaging campaigns, and other proximity activities (e.g., orbiting, hovering, and descent/ascent).

Autonomy↗

Early experiences building a software quality prediction model

Early experiences building a software quality prediction model are discussed. The overall research objective is to establish a capability to project a software system's quality from an analysis of its design. The technical approach is to build multivariate models for estimating reliability and maintainability. Data from 21 Ada subsystems were analyzed to test hypotheses about various design structures leading to failure-prone or unmaintainable systems. Current design variables highlight the interconnectivity and visibility of compilation units. Other model variables provide for the effects of reusability and software changes. Reported results are preliminary because additional project data is being obtained and new hypotheses are being developed and tested. Current multivariate regression models are encouraging, explaining 60 to 80 percent of the variation in error density of the subsystems.

Agresti, W. W.↗

Structural analysis and sizing of stiffened, metal matrix composite panels for hypersonic vehicles

The present method for strength and stability analyses of stiffened, fiber-reinforced composite panels to be used in hypersonic vehicle structures is of great generality, and can be linked with planar finite-element analysis (FEA). Nonlinear temperature and load-dependent material data for each laminate are used to 'build-up' the stiffened panel's membrane, bending, and membrane-bending coupling stiffness terms, as well as thermal coefficients. The resulting, FEA-solved thermomechanical forces and moments are used to calculate strain at any location in the panel; this allows an effective ply-by-ply orthotropic strength analysis to be conducted, together with orthotropic instability checks for each laminated segment of the cross-section.

Collier, Craig S.↗

Stiffness, thermal expansion, and thermal bending formulation of stiffened, fiber-reinforced composite panels

A method is presented for formulating stiffness terms and thermal coefficients of stiffened, fiber-reinforced composite panels. The method is robust enough to handle panels with general cross sectional shapes, including those which are unsymmetric and/or unbalanced. Nonlinear, temperature and load dependent constitutive material data of each laminate are used to 'build-up' the stiffened panel membrane, bending, and membrane-bending coupling stiffness terms and thermal coefficients. New thermal coefficients are introduced to quantify panel response from through-the-thickness temperature gradients. A technique of implementing this capability with a single plane of shell finite elements using the MSC/NASTRAN analysis program (FEA) is revealed that provides accurate solutions of entire airframes or engines with coarsely meshed models. An example of a composite, hat-stiffened panel is included to demonstrate errors that occur when an unsymmetric panel is symmetrically formulated as traditionally done. The erroneous results and the correct ones produced from this method are compared to analysis from discretely meshed three-dimensional FEA.

Collier, Craig S.↗

ControlShell - A real-time software framework

ControlShell is designed to enable modular design and impplementation of real-time software. It is an object-oriented tool-set for real-time software system programming. It provides a series of execution and data interchange mechansims that form a framework for building real-time applications. These mechanisms allow a component-based approach to real-time software generation and mangement. By defining a set of interface specifications for intermodule interaction, ControlShell provides a common platform that is the basis for real-time code development and exchange.

Schneider, Stanley A.↗

Estimating Costs Of Aerospace Construction

Report presents brief descriptions of techniques, instructional and reference literature, computer hardware and software, and compilations of data used to estimate costs of specially equipped buildings and other aerospace construction projects. Descriptions replete with practical examples. Experiences gained in estimating costs of specific projects included.

Brown, Joseph A.↗

Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Methods of Sensing Land Pollution from Sanitary Landfills

Major cities are congested and large sites suitable for landfill development are limited. Methane and other gases are produced at most sanitary landfills and dumps. These gases may migrate horizontally and vertically and have caused fatalities. Monitoring these gases provides data bases for design and construction of safe buildings on and adjacent to landfills. Methods of monitoring include: (1) a portable combustible gas indicator; and (2) glass flasks valved to allow simultaneous exhaust of the flask and aspiration of the sample into the flask. Samples are drawn through tubing from probes as deep as twenty-five feet below the surface.

Nosanov, Myron Ellis↗

Defect measurement and analysis of JPL ground software: a case study

Ground software systems at JPL must meet high assurance standards while remaining on schedule due to relatively immovable launch dates for spacecraft that will be controlled by such systems. Toward this end, the Software Quality Improvement (SQI) project's Measurement and Benchmarking (M&B) team is collecting and analyzing defect data of JPL ground system software projects to build software defect prediction models. The aim of these models is to improve predictability with regard to software quality activities. Predictive models will quantitatively define typical trends for JPL ground systems as well as Critical Discriminators (CDs) to provide explanations for atypical deviations from the norm at JPL. CDs are software characteristics that can be estimated or foreseen early in a software project's planning. Thus, these CDs will assist in planning for the predicted degree to which software quality activities for a project are likely to deviation from the normal JPL ground system based on pasted experience across the lab.

defects↗

2005 PathfinderPlus Aero-Elastic Research Flight

This viewgraph presentation describes the 2005 Pathfinder along with an investigation of its aeroelastic responses. The contents include: 1) HALE Class of Vehicles; 2) Aero-elastic Research Flights Overall Objective; 3) General Arrangement; 4) Sensor Locations; 5) NASA Ramp Operations; 6) Lakebed Operations; 7) 1st Flight Data Set; 8) Tool development / data usage; 9) HALE Tool Development & Validation; 10) Building a HALE Foundation; 11) Compelling Needs Drive HALE Efforts; and 12) Team Photo

Navarro, Robert↗

Cleanroom Design Practices and Their Influence on Particle Counts

This paper will discuss the adverse effects of deficient cleanroom design practices on airborne particle counts and the rather curious correlation of particle count variations with external environmental pressure fluctuations. Data is also presented that demonstrates that APL building 23 cleanrooms ran well below ISO class 7 (FED class 10,000) during New Horizons and STEREO integration.

Hogue, Patrick↗

Astrochemical Modeling In the ALMA Era

Interstellar chemistry provides a natural laboratory for studying exotic species and processes at densities, temperatures, and reaction rates, that are difficult or impractical to address in the laboratory. Thus, many chemical reactions considered too slow by the standards of terrestrial chemistry, can be observed' and modeled. Various proposals concerning the nature and chemistry of complex interstellar organic molecules will be described. Catalytic reactions on grain surfaces can, in principle, lead to a large variety of species and this has motivated many laboratory and theoretical studies. Gas phase processes may also build large species in molecular clouds. Future laboratory data and computational tools needed to construct accurate chemical models of various sources to be observed by ALMA will be outlined.

Charnley, Steven↗

Theoretical Models of Astrochemical Processes

Interstellar chemistry provides a natural laboratory for studying exotic species and processes at densities, temperatures, and reaction rates. that are difficult or impractical to address in the laboratory. Thus, many chemical reactions considered too sloe by the standards of terrestrial chemistry, can be 'observed and modeled. Curious proposals concerning the nature and chemistry of complex interstellar organic molecules will be described. Catalytic reactions on "rain surfaces can, in principle, lead to a lame variety of species and this has motivated many laboratory and theoretical studies. Gas phase processes may also build lame species in molecular clouds. Future laboratory data and computational tools needed to construct accurate chemical models of various astronomical sources to be observed by Herschel and ALMA will be outlined.

Charnley, Steven↗

Theoretical Models of Astrochemical Processes

Interstellar chemistry provides a natural laboratory for studying exotic species and processes at densities, temperatures, and reaction rates, that are difficult or impractical to address in the laboratory. Thus, many chemical reactions considered too slow by the standards of terrestrial chemistry, can be 'observed' and modeled. Various proposals concerning the nature and chemistry of complex interstellar organic molecules will be described. Catalytic reactions on grain surfaces can, in principle, lead to a large variety of species and this has motivated many laboratory and theoretical studies. Gas phase processes may also build large species in molecular clouds. Future laboratory data and computational tools needed to construct accurate chemical models of various astronomical sources to be observed by Herschel and ALMA will be outlined

Charnley, Steven B.↗

NASA Sounding Rocket Program Educational Outreach

Educational and public outreach is a major focus area for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA Sounding Rocket Program (NSRP) shares in the belief that NASA plays a unique and vital role in inspiring future generations to pursue careers in science, mathematics, and technology. To fulfill this vision, the NSRP engages in a variety of educator training workshops and student flight projects that provide unique and exciting hands-on rocketry and space flight experiences. Specifically, the Wallops Rocket Academy for Teachers and Students (WRATS) is a one-week tutorial laboratory experience for high school teachers to learn the basics of rocketry, as well as build an instrumented model rocket for launch and data processing. The teachers are thus armed with the knowledge and experience to subsequently inspire the students at their home institution. Additionally, the NSRP has partnered with the Colorado Space Grant Consortium (COSGC) to provide a "pipeline" of space flight opportunities to university students and professors. Participants begin by enrolling in the RockOn! Workshop, which guides fledgling rocketeers through the construction and functional testing of an instrumentation kit. This is then integrated into a sealed canister and flown on a sounding rocket payload, which is recovered for the students to retrieve and process their data post flight. The next step in the "pipeline" involves unique, user-defined RockSat-C experiments in a sealed canister that allow participants more independence in developing, constructing, and testing spaceflight hardware. These experiments are flown and recovered on the same payload as the RockOn! Workshop kits. Ultimately, the "pipeline" culminates in the development of an advanced, user-defined RockSat-X experiment that is flown on a payload which provides full exposure to the space environment (not in a sealed canister), and includes telemetry and attitude control capability. The RockOn! and RockSat-C elements of the "pipeline" have been successfully demonstrated by five annual flights thus far from Wallops Flight Facility. RockSat-X has successfully flown twice, also from Wallops. The NSRP utilizes launch vehicles comprised of military surplus rocket motors (Terrier-Improved Orion and Terrier-Improved Malemute) to execute these missions. The NASA Sounding Rocket Program is proud of its role in inspiring the "next generation of explorers" and is working to expand its reach to all regions of the United States and the international community as well.

Rosanova, G.↗