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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standard experimental paradigm designs and data exclusion practices in cognitive psychology can inadvertently introduce systematic “shadow” biases in participant samples

Abstract Standard cognitive psychology research practices can introduce inadvertent sampling biases that reduce the reliability and generalizability of the findings. Researchers commonly acknowledge and understand that any given study sample is not perfectly generalizable, especially when implementing typical experimental constraints (e.g., limiting recruitment to specific age ranges or to individuals with normal color vision). However, less obvious systematic sampling constraints, referred to here as “shadow” biases, can be unintentionally introduced and can easily go unnoticed. For example, many standard cognitive psychology study designs involve lengthy and tedious experiments with simple, repetitive stimuli. Such testing environments may 1) be aversive to some would-be participants (e.g., those high in certain neurodivergent symptoms) who may self-select not to enroll in such studies, or 2) contribute to participant attrition, both of which reduce the sample’s representativeness. Likewise, standard performance-based data exclusion efforts (e.g., minimum accuracy or response time) or attention checks can systematically remove data from participants from subsets of the population (e.g., those low in conscientiousness). This commentary focuses on the theoretical and practical issues behind these non-obvious and often unacknowledged “shadow” biases, offers a simple illustration with real data as a proof of concept of how applying attention checks can systematically skew latent/hidden variables in the included population, and then discusses the broader implications with suggestions for how to manage and reduce, or at a minimum acknowledge, the problem.

Siritzky, Emma M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Algorithmic Bias in Cancer Site Classification Models

Purpose Integrating artificial intelligence in cancer diagnostics has improved tumor classification beyond rule-based systems. Despite these advancements, these models may still encode demographic biases. We conducted a large-scale, applied bias-probing study of a deep learning–based cancer site classifier to quantify race information encoded in document embeddings. We then evaluated how performance changes when race-correlated embedding dimensions are removed in a post-training sensitivity analysis. Methods The cancer site classifier was trained using 3.5 million electronic cancer pathology reports from six of the National Cancer Institute's SEER registries. We trained a hierarchical self-attention network to generate 400-dimensional document embeddings. These embeddings were used to train two downstream, gradient-boosted decision tree classifiers: one to classify the cancer sites and another to predict racial categories. We identified overlapping features by intersecting the top 50 feature-importance rankings from the site and race models and computed their cumulative feature importance in each model. As a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we progressively pruned these overlapping dimensions, retrained the site model, and compared overall macro-F1 and accuracy, race-stratified macro-F1, and group fairness metrics on the basis of demographic parity and equalized odds before and after pruning. Results The analysis revealed minimal feature overlap between the cancer site and race prediction models, and the cumulative importance scores indicated a negligible influence of racial information on clinical predictions. Post-training pruning of overlapping features did not compromise the models' diagnostic accuracy, with a 0.07% loss in accuracy. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that HiSAN-generated embeddings from SEER data can be used effectively in cancer site classification without significant demographic bias influencing the outcomes. Post-training pruning therefore functions as a practical audit and sensitivity check.

Shivanna, Abhishek [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000665228593)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing Frequency Bias of Fourier Neural Operators in 3D Seismic Wavefield Simulations Through Multistage Training

The recent development of neural operator (NeurOp) learning for solutions to the elastic wave equation shows promising results and provides the basis for fast large-scale simulations for different seismological applications. In this article, we use the Fourier neural operator (FNO) model to directly solve the 3D Helmholtz wave equation for fast seismic ground-motion simulations on different frequencies and show the frequency bias of the FNO model, that is, it learns the lower frequencies better comparing to the higher frequencies. To reduce the frequency bias, we adopt the multistage FNO training, that is, after training a stage 1 FNO model for estimating the ground motion, we use a second FNO model as the stage 2 to learn from the residual, which greatly reduced the errors on the higher frequencies. By adopting this multistage training, the FNO models show reduced biases on higher frequencies, which enhanced the overall results of the ground-motion simulations. Thus the multistage training FNO improves the accuracy and realism of the ground-motion simulations.

earthquakes↗
DOE OSTI2018

Using Machine Learning to Predict MCNP Bias

For many real-world applications in radiation transport where simulations are compared to experimental measurements, like in nuclear criticality safety, the bias (simulated - experimental k eff ) in the calculation is an extremely important quantity used for code validation. The objective of this project is to accurately predict the bias of MCNP6 [1] criticality calculations using machine learning (ML) algorithms, with the intention of creating a tool that can complement the current nuclear criticality safety methods. In the latest release of MCNP6, the Whisper tool is available for criticality safety analysts and includes a large catalogue of experimental benchmarks, sensitivity profiles, and nuclear data covariance matrices. This data, coming from 1100+ benchmark cases, is used in this study of ML algorithms for criticality safety bias predictions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

FRAM Version 7.1’s Bias

The Fixed-Energy Response-Function Analysis with Multiple Efficiency (FRAM) code was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to measure the gamma-ray spectrometry of the isotopic composition of plutonium, uranium, and other actinides. For FRAM versions 4 and earlier, the reported uncertainties of the results come from the propagation of the statistics in the peak areas only. No systematic error components are included in the reported uncertainties. For FRAM versions 5 and 6, we examined the FRAM analytical results of both the archival plutonium data and the data specifically acquired for the isotopic uncertainty analysis project and found the relationship between the bias and other parameters. We worked out the equations representing the biases of the measured isotopes from each measurement using internal spectral parameters, such as peak resolution and shape, region of analysis, and burnup (for plutonium) or enrichment (for uranium). The resulting biases were included in the reported uncertainties of FRAM v.5 and v.6.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geant4 Event Biasing and Fast Simulation

Geant4 offers advanced event biasing techniques to significantly accelerate simulations involving rare events. Various biasing methods, such as leading particle selection, cross-section biasing, radioactive decay enhancement, and bremsstrahlung splitting, enable efficient event sampling, though they require careful handling. Additionally, Geant4 provides a Fast Simulation Interface, allowing the replacement of standard processes in specific region and for selected particles, enabling faster execution or external code integration. Applications of fast simulation include electromagnetic shower modeling in calorimeters, machine learning inference, and offloading tasks to specialized hardware like GPUs, making Geant4 a powerful tool for computationally demanding simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graphical User Interface for a Biasing Board for the PSEC6

The PSEC6 is an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) designed for a readout system for a large area picosecond photodetector (LAPPD). The PSEC6 is currently in fabrication and pending testing. The testing system for the PSEC5, the previous iteration of the ASIC, required expensive and non-portable equipment, because the ASIC needs twelve adjustable reference voltages. The new testing system consists of an low-cost, open-source, cross-platform graphical user interface (GUI), a digital system, and a biasing board. The digital system is the interface between the GUI and biasing board, and can be implemented on a microcontroller or field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The biasing board contains twelve digital-to-analog converters (DACs) that are configurable via the GUI, which gives users the ability to write voltage values to all or specific DACs. The GUI was developed in C on Linux using the widget library GTK4 and cross-compiled for Windows compatibility. I2C and SPI protocols were implemented on an Adafruit Feather ESP32-S3 microcontroller to write commands to the DACs and PSEC6. A hardware implementation of the I2C protocol is in development on an FPGA. Since LAPPDs will be used by the Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) at Fermilab, the PSEC6 testing system in this internship project can potentially benefit future neutrino research. The project is relevant to the Department of Energy’s microelectronics mission, because the PSEC6 is an ASIC that will handle fast time signals arriving from the detector for readout. It also provided experience with building a cross-platform user interface, practicing digital design and implementation in hardware description language (HDL), and using simulations to inform new design iterations.

Guerrero, Sasha Camila [North Central Coll.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy Clustering with LSST: Effects of Number Count Bias from Blending

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will survey the southern sky to create the largest galaxy catalog to date, and its statistical power demands an improved understanding of systematic effects such as source overlaps, also known as blending. In this work we study how blending introduces a bias in the number counts of galaxies (instead of the flux and colors), and how it propagates into galaxy clustering statistics. We use the 300 deg 2 DC2 image simulation and its resulting galaxy catalog (LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration et al. 2021) to carry out this study. We find that, for a LSST Year 1 (Y1)-like cosmological analyses, the number count bias due to blending leads to small but statistically significant differences in mean redshift measurements when comparing an observed sample to an unblended calibration sample. In the two-point correlation function, blending causes differences greater than 3σ on scales below approximately 10', but large scales are unaffected. We fit Ω m and linear galaxy bias in a Bayesian cosmological analysis and find that the recovered parameters from this limited area sample, with the LSST Y1 scale cuts, are largely unaffected by blending. Our main results hold when considering photometric redshift and a LSST Year 5 (Y5)-like sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY REVERBERATION MAPPING PROJECT: BIASES IN z > 1.46 REDSHIFTS DUE TO QUASAR DIVERSITY

We use the coadded spectra of 32 epochs of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Reverberation Mapping Project observations of 482 quasars with z > 1.46 to highlight systematic biases in the SDSS- and Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS)-pipeline redshifts due to the natural diversity of quasar properties. We investigate the characteristics of this bias by comparing the BOSS-pipeline redshifts to an estimate from the centroid of He ii λ 1640. He ii has a low equivalent width but is often well-defined in high-S/N spectra, does not suffer from self-absorption, and has a narrow component which, when present (the case for about half of our sources), produces a redshift estimate that, on average, is consistent with that determined from [O ii] to within the He ii and [O ii] centroid measurement uncertainties. The large redshift differences of ∼1000 km s{sup −1}, on average, between the BOSS-pipeline and He ii-centroid redshifts, suggest there are significant biases in a portion of BOSS quasar redshift measurements. Adopting the He ii-based redshifts shows that C iv does not exhibit a ubiquitous blueshift for all quasars, given the precision probed by our measurements. Instead, we find a distribution of C iv-centroid blueshifts across our sample, with a dynamic range that (i) is wider than that previously reported for this line, and (ii) spans C iv centroids from those consistent with the systemic redshift to those with significant blueshifts of thousands of kilometers per second. These results have significant implications for measurement and use of high-redshift quasar properties and redshifts, and studies based thereon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Shear Measurement Bias Due to Spatially Varying Spectral Energy Distributions in Galaxies

Galaxy color gradients (CGs)—i.e., spectral energy distributions that vary across the galaxy profile—will impact galaxy shape measurements when the modeled point-spread function (PSF) corresponds to that for a galaxy with spatially uniform color. This paper describes the techniques and results of a study of the expected impact of galaxy CGs on weak lensing measurements with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) when the PSF size depends on wavelength. The bias on cosmic shear measurements from CGs is computed both for parametric bulge$+$disk galaxy simulations and for more realistic chromatic galaxy surface brightness profiles based on Hubble Space Telescope V- and I-band images in the All-Wavelength Extended Groth Strip International Survey (AEGIS). For the parametric galaxies, and for the more realistic galaxies derived from AEGIS galaxies with a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio that CG bias can be isolated, the predicted multiplicative shear biases due to CGs are found to be at least a factor of two below the LSST full-depth requirement on the total systematic uncertainty in the redshift-dependent shear calibration. The analysis code and data products are publicly available (https://github.com/sowmyakth/measure_cg_bias).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections

This dataset provides the results of a global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections. The total projection variance for a set of climate metrics is partitioned into contributions from: scenario uncertainty, model/GCM uncertainty, downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty, and interannual variability. The contribution from each source is expressed as a percentage of the total variance. Seven climate metrics are analyzed: Annual average temperature (avg_tas.nc) Annual total precipitation (tot_pr.nc) Annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (max_tasmax.nc) Annual maximum 1-day precipitation (max_pr.nc) Annual number of extremely hot days (hot_days.nc) Annual number of extremely wet days (wet_days.nc) Annual number of dry days (dry_days.nc) Extremely hot/wet days are defined to occur when temperature/precipitation exceeds the local 99th percentile defined over 1980-2014. Dry days are defined to occur when daily precipitation is less than 1mm. all_metrics_timesliced.nc gives the results for all metrics averaged over three 20-year periods: 2020-2039, 2050-2069, 2080-2099. For more details on the methods, see: Lafferty & Sriver, Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6, npj Climate & Atmospheric Science (2023) An interactive visualization of this data can be found at: https://lafferty-sriver-2023-downscaling-uncertainty.msdlive.org

Lafferty, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biases in genome reconstruction from metagenomic data

Background Advances in sequencing, assembly, and assortment of contigs into species-specific bins has enabled the reconstruction of genomes from metagenomic data (MAGs). Though a powerful technique, it is difficult to determine whether assembly and binning techniques are accurate when applied to environmental metagenomes due to a lack of complete reference genome sequences against which to check the resulting MAGs. Methods We compared MAGs derived from an enrichment culture containing ~20 organisms to complete genome sequences of 10 organisms isolated from the enrichment culture. Factors commonly considered in binning software—nucleotide composition and sequence repetitiveness—were calculated for both the correctly binned and not-binned regions. This direct comparison revealed biases in sequence characteristics and gene content in the not-binned regions. Additionally, the composition of three public data sets representing MAGs reconstructed from the Tara Oceans metagenomic data was compared to a set of representative genomes available through NCBI RefSeq to verify that the biases identified were observable in more complex data sets and using three contemporary binning software packages. Results Repeat sequences were frequently not binned in the genome reconstruction processes, as were sequence regions with variant nucleotide composition. Genes encoded on the not-binned regions were strongly biased towards ribosomal RNAs, transfer RNAs, mobile element functions and genes of unknown function. Our results support genome reconstruction as a robust process and suggest that reconstructions determined to be >90% complete are likely to effectively represent organismal function; however, population-level genotypic heterogeneity in natural populations, such as uneven distribution of plasmids, can lead to incorrect inferences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Some effects of bias errors in redundant flight control systems.

The controllability and steady-state response of parallel-redundant flight control systems are examined. It is found that state components which appear in the parallel signal paths, e.g., individual actuator commands, are not controllable, although the sum of the command signals is well-behaved. If the response modes associated with these components are not stable, bias errors can cause the components to diverge, leading to the possibility of 'nuisance trips' in failure detection/isolation logic and eventual control system lockup (at saturation). Combining the inputs to the control computers assures that sensor bias will not cause divergence, while cross-strapping control strings bounds divergent response to all bias error inputs. Results of numerical solutions confirm the problem and its solutions.

Stengel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Some effects of bias errors in redundant flight control systems

The controllability and steady-state response of parallel-redundant flight control systems are examined. It is found that state components which appear in the parallel signal paths, or individual actuator commands, are not controllable, although the sum of the command signals is well-behaved. If the response modes associated with these components are not stable, bias errors can cause the components to diverge, leading to the possibility of nuisance trips in failure detection/isolation logic and eventual control system lockup (at saturation). Combining the inputs to the control computers assures that sensor bias will not cause divergence, while cross-strapping control strings bounds divergent response to all bias error inputs. Results of numerical solutions confirm the problem and its solutions.

Stengel, R. F.↗