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NASA NTRS2018

Microphysics and Radiation Effect of Dust on Saharan Air Layer: An HS3 Case Study

A Saharan air layer (SAL) event associated with a nondeveloping African easterly wave (AEW) over the main development region of the eastern Atlantic was sampled by the NASA Global Hawk aircraft on 24-25 August 2013 during the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign and was simulated with the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model. Airborne, ground-based, and spaceborne measurements were used to evaluate the model performance. The microphysical and radiative effects of dust and other aerosols on the SAL structure and environment were investigated with the factor-separation method. The results indicate that relative to a simulation without dust-radiative and microphysical impacts, Saharan dust and other aerosols heated the SAL air mainly through shortwave heating by the direct aerosol-radiation (AR) effect, resulting in a warmer (up to 0.6 K) and drier (up to 5% RH reduction) SAL and maintaining the strong temperature inversion at the base of the SAL in the presence of predominant longwave cooling. Radiative heating of the dust accentuated a vertical circulation within the dust layer, in which air rose (sank) in the northern (southern) portions of the dust layer. Furthermore, above and to the south of the dust layer, both the microphysical and radiative impacts of dust tended to counter the vertical motions associated with the Hadley circulation, causing a small weakening and southward shift of convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and reduced anvil cloud to the north. Changes in moisture and cloud/precipitation hydrometeors were largely driven by the dust induced changes in vertical motion. Dust strengthened the African easterly jet by up to ~1ms(exp -1) at the southern edge of the jet, primarily through the AR effect, and produced modest increases in vertical wind shear within and in the vicinity of the dust layer. These modulations of the SAL and AEW environment clearly contributed to the nondevelopment of this AEW.

Tao, Zhining↗

NASA NTRS2017

On the Dependence of Cloud Feedbacks on Physical Parameterizations in WRF Aquaplanet Simulations

We investigate the effects of physical parameterizations on cloud feedback uncertainty in response to climate change. For this purpose, we construct an ensemble of eight aquaplanet simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each WRF‐derived simulation, we replace only one parameterization at a time while all other parameters remain identical. By doing so, we aim to (i) reproduce cloud feedback uncertainty from state‐of‐the‐art climate models and (ii) understand how parametrizations impact cloud feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that this ensemble of WRF simulations, which differ only in physical parameterizations, replicates the range of cloud feedback uncertainty found in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We show that microphysics and convective parameterizations govern the magnitude and sign of cloud feedbacks, mostly due to tropical low‐level clouds in subsidence regimes. Finally, this study highlights the advantages of using WRF to analyze cloud feedback mechanisms owing to its plug‐and‐play parameterization capability.

Cesana, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height During DISCOVER-AQ Baltimore–Washington, D.C., with Lidar and High-Resolution WRF Modeling

The daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) was examined for the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) Baltimore (Maryland)–Washington, D.C., campaign of July 2011 using PBL height (PBLH) retrievals from aerosol backscatter measurements from ground-based micropulse lidar (MPL), the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar-1 (HSRL-1), and the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with horizontal grid spacing of 1 km and different combinations of PBL schemes, urban parameterization, and sea surface temperature inputs were evaluated against PBLHs derived from lidars, ozonesondes, and radiosondes. MPL and WRF PBLHs depicted a growing PBL in the morning that reached a peak height by midafternoon. WRF PBLHs calculated from gridded output profiles generally showed more rapid growth and higher peak heights than did the MPLs, and all WRF–lidar differences were dependent on model configuration, PBLH calculation method, and synoptic conditions. At inland locations, WRF simulated an earlier descent of the PBL top in the afternoon relative to the MPL retrievals and radiosonde PBLHs. At Edgewood, Maryland, the influence of the Chesapeake Bay breeze on the PBLH was captured by both the ozonesonde and WRF data but generally not by the MPL PBLH retrievals because of generally weaker gradients in the aerosol backscatter profile and limited normalized relative backscatter data near the top height of the marine layer.

Hegarty, Jennifer D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Microwave Observations in the Rainbands of Tropical Cyclones

We propose a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (BMCI) technique to retrieve the profiles of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid/ice water content from microwave cloudy measurements in the presence of tropical cyclones (TC). These retrievals then can either be directly used by meteorologists to analyze the structure of TCs or be assimilated into numerical models to provide accurate initial conditions for the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. The BMCI technique is applied to the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The retrieved profiles are then assimilated into Hurricane WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) using the GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation) data assimilation system.

Moradi, Isaac↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Interaction Between Boundary Layer and Convection Schemes in a WRF Simulation of Post‐Cold‐Frontal Clouds over the ARM East North Atlantic Site

The correct representation of lowlevel midlatitude clouds found in the wake of cold fronts strongly relies on the representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) and convection processes, which are typically parameterized separately in numerical models. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), this study investigates how distinct pairs of PBL and convection parameterization schemes represent cloud fraction in the postcoldfrontal region. The simulations focus on the region of the DOEARM Eastern North Atlantic observation site in the Azores Islands in the wake of a cold front that passed on December 25, 2015. Different PBL and convection schemes are combined to create 12 distinct configurations. The main differences between the selected physical parameterizations are the strength of vertical mixing and the entrainment. The simulations produce a wide range of cloud fractions, where some configurations significantly underestimate while others clearly overestimate satellite and surfacebased estimates of cloud fraction. A skill score is used to quantitatively assess the performance of each configuration with respect to groundbased radar data. The key processes that are found to significantly impact the cloud fraction distribution are the strength of the PBL decoupling, the vertical wind shear, entrainment and detrainment rates in shallow convection and the occurrence of drizzle. This indicates that to successfully simulate postcoldfrontal clouds, modeled physics must balance strong internal vertical mixing and weak exchange with the free troposphere. For this case study, cloud fraction was more sensitive to the choice of convection scheme than PBL scheme.

moist convection interaction between parameterizat↗

NASA NTRS2018

Estimating CO2 Emissions Using Real and Simulated Total Column Observations

Total column measurements of CO2 (XCO2) have been proposed as a possible way to estimate emissions from large urban regions. Using calculations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 1km emissions field, we investigate the viability of both real and proposed observing systems consisting of surface and/or column measurements for constraining emission sources of various types and sizes in the San Francisco Bay Area. We find that column observations are best suited for assessing enhancements downwind of very large emissions sources. For smaller sources (such as highways), in situ surface monitors are required to provide sufficient sensitivity. We explore methods for estimating emissions from the real and simulated observations.

Raheja, Garima↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-20351-DND

Characterization of atmospheric variability is crucial to the design of the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) activities at Mars. The distribution of dust in the Martian atmosphere has a significant impact on the atmospheric structure and variability. Information obtained through reconstruction of EDL data from past missions can be used in studying the performance of a model used in preflight atmospheric characterization for future missions. We use the Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) General Circulation Model to simulate the atmospheric temperature during the landing time periods of Mars Exploration Rovers MER-A and MER-B in 2004. The multi-scale capability of MarsWRF is useful for conducting high- resolution nested simulation centered at the landing site. This version of MarsWRF includes a high spectral accuracy k-distribution radiative transfer model. We use the IR dust opacity profile data from the Thermal Emission spectrometer (TES) limb scan data as well as the TES Nadir data to prescribe the dust opacity distribution. Data from MY 26, which corresponds to the year of MER landing, and data from a climatology based on the median of 4 years (MY24 to MY27) of TES data are used. Model temperature profiles are compared with the reconstructions from EDL data and TES observations. Sensitivity of the model simulation to variations in the input opacity data are shown.

Murali Natarajan↗

NASA NTRS2020

International Coordination and Support for SmallSat-enabled Space Weather Activities

Advances in space weather science and small satellite (SmallSat) technology have proceeded in parallel over the past two decades, but better communication and coordination is needed among the respective worldwide communities contributing to this rapid progress. We identify six areas where improved international coordination is especially desirable, including: (1) orbital debris mitigation; (2) spectrum management; (3) export control regulations; (4) access to timely and low-cost launch opportunities; (5) inclusive data policies; and (6) education. We argue the need for internationally coordinated policies and programs to promote the use of SmallSats for space weather research and forecasting while realizing maximum scientific and technical advances through the integration of these two increasingly important endeavors.

Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla↗

NASA NTRS2019

POLARRIS: A POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator

This paper introduces a synthetic polarimetric radar simulator and retrieval package, POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS), for evaluating cloud‐resolving models (CRMs). POLARRIS is composed of forward (POLARRIS‐f) and inverse (retrieval and diagnostic) components (iPOLARRIS) to generate not only polarimetric radar observables (Zh, Zdr, Kdp, ρhv) but also radar‐consistent geophysical parameters such as hydrometeor identification, vertical velocity, and rainfall rates retrieved from CRM data. To demonstrate its application and uncertainties, POLARRIS is applied to simulations of a mesoscale convective system over the Southern Great Plains on 23 May 2011, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with both spectral bin microphysics (SBM) and the Goddard single‐moment bulk 4ICE microphysics. Statistical composites reveal a significant dependence of simulated polarimetric observables (Zdr, Kdp) on the assumptions of the particle axis ratio (oblateness) and orientation angle distributions. The simulated polarimetric variables differ considerably between the SBM and 4ICE microphysics in part due to the differences in their ice particle size distributions as revealed by comparisons with aircraft measurements. Regardless of these uncertainties, simulated hydrometeor identification distributions overestimate graupel and hail fractions, especially from the simulation with SBM. To minimize uncertainties in forward model, the particle shape and orientation angle distributions of frozen particles should be predicted in a microphysics scheme in addition to the size distributions and particle densities.

Toshi Matsui↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Air Pollution In the Middle East Using MERRA-2, CAMS Data Assimilation Products, and High-Resolution WRF-Chem Model Simulations

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO2 emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO2 emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMSOA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R = 0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R = 0.66), CAMS-OA (R = 0.65), and WRF-Chem (R = 0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO2 emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈ 75%–95%) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO2 emission sources, non-dust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30% to PM(sub 2.5). The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5%. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM(sub 10) and PM(sub 2.5) (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the non-dust component to PM(sub 2.5) is < 25%, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Alexander Ukhov↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

NASA NTRS2021

Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a Versatile Emissions Component for Atmospheric Models: Application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS Models

Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to re-grid, combine, overwrite, subset, and scale emissions from different inventories through a configuration file and with no change to the model source code. The configuration file also maps emissions to model species with appropriate units. HEMCO can operate in offline stand-alone mode, but more importantly it provides an online facility for models to compute emissions at runtime. HEMCO complies with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) for portability across models. We present a new version here, HEMCO 3.0, that features an improved three-layer architecture to facilitate implementation into any atmospheric model and improved capability for calculating emissions at any model resolution including multiscale and unstructured grids. The three-layer architecture of HEMCO 3.0 includes (1) the Data Input Layer that reads the configuration file and accesses the HEMCO library of emission inventories and other environmental data, (2) the HEMCO Core that computes emissions on the user-selected HEMCO grid, and (3) the Model Interface Layer that re-grids (if needed) and serves the data to the atmospheric model and also serves model data to the HEMCO Core for computing emissions dependent on model state (such as from dust or vegetation). The HEMCO Core is common to the implementation in all models, while the Data Input Layer and the Model Interface Layer are adaptable to the model environment. Default versions of the Data Input Layer and Model Interface Layer enable straightforward implementation of HEMCO in any simple model architecture, and options are available to disable features such as re-gridding that may be done by independent couplers in more complex architectures. The HEMCO library of emission inventories and algorithms is continuously enriched through user contributions so that new inventories can be immediately shared across models. HEMCO can also serve as a general data broker for models to process input data not only for emissions but for any gridded environmental datasets. We describe existing implementations of HEMCO 3.0 in (1) the GEOS-Chem “Classic” chemical transport model with shared-memory infrastructure, (2) the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) model with distributed-memory architecture, (3) the NASA GEOS Earth System Model (GEOS ESM), (4) the Weather Research and Forecasting model with GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC), (5) the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), and (6) the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System – Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), as well as the planned implementation in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). Implementation of HEMCO in CESM2 contributes to the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) by providing a common emissions infrastructure to support different simulations of atmospheric chemistry across scales.

Haipeng Lin↗

NASA NTRS2021

The impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution and stratospheric intrusions on the surrounding San Gabriel Mountains as seen by surface measurements, lidar, and numerical models

In this work, the impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution transport and stratospheric intrusions on the surface ozone levels observed in the San Gabriel Mountains is investigated based on a combination of surface and lidar measurements as well as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) and WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) runs. The number of days with observed surface ozone levels exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, with a maximum during summer, when models suggest a minimum influence of stratospheric intrusions and the largest impact from Los Angeles Basin pollution transport. Additionally, measured and modeled surface ozone and PM10 were analyzed as a function of season, time of the day, and wind direction. Measurements and models are in good qualitative agreement, with maximum surface ozone observed for southwest and west winds. For the prevailing summer wind direction, slightly south of the ozone maximum and corresponding to south-southwest winds, lower ozone levels were observed. Back trajectories suggest that this is associated with transport from the central Los Angeles Basin, where titration limits the amount of surface ozone. A quantitative comparison of the lidar profiles with WRF-Chem and WACCM models revealed good agreement near the surface, with models showing an increasing positive bias as function of altitude, reaching 75 % at 15 km above sea level. Finally, three selected case studies covering the different mechanisms affecting the near-surface ozone concentration over the San Gabriel Mountains, namely stratospheric intrusions and pollution transport, are analyzed based on surface and ozone lidar measurements, as well as co-located ceilometer measurements and models.

Impact↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tracking the Impacts of Precipitation Phase Changes Through the Hydrologic Cycle in Snowy Regions: From Precipitation to Reservoir Storage

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Mesoscale Morphology of Cloud Streets during a Cold-Air Outbreak over the Western North Atlantic

Postfrontal clouds (PFC) are ubiquitous in the marine boundary layer, and their morphology is essential to estimating the radiation budget in weather and climate models. Here we examine the roles of sea surface temperature (SST) and meteorological factors in controlling the mesoscale morphology and evolution of shallow clouds associated with a cold-air outbreak that occurred on 1 March 2020 during phase I of the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). Our results show that the simulated PFC structure and ambient conditions by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are generally consistent with observations from GOES-16 and dropsonde measurements. We also examine the thermodynamical and dynamical influences in the cloud mesoscale morphology using WRF sensitivity experiments driven by two meteorological forcing datasets with different domain-mean SST and spatial gradients, which lead to dissimilar values of hydrometeor water path and cloud core fraction. The SST from ERA5 leads to weaker stability and higher inversion height than the SST from FNL does. In addition, the use of large-scale meteorological forcings from ERA5 yields a distinctive time evolution of wind direction shear in the inner domain, which favors the formation and persistence of longer cloud rolls. Both factors contribute to a change in the time evolution of domain-mean water path and cloud core fraction of cloud streets. Our study takes advantage of the simulation driven by the differences between two large-scale forcing datasets to illustrate the importance of SST and wind direction shear in the cloud street morphology in a realistic scenario

Jingyi Chen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Forecasting/Assimilation/Emissions Estimation with WRF-Chem/DART: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Future Plans

Over the past ten years, we have been conducting research on regional ensemble atmospheric composition forecasting/data assimilation/emissions estimation with WRF-Chem/DART. WRF- Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). DART is an ensemble data assimilation system based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) with adaptive inflation, localization (physical and state space), and an optional non-Gaussian formulation of the EAKF. DART includes assimilation of meteorological and limited chemical observations. WRF-Chem/DART extends DART to include assimilation of: MOPITT CO; IASI CO and O3; MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2, and SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, and SO2, TES CO, CO2 (research mode), O3, NH3, and CH4 (research mode); CrIS CO, O3, NH3, CH4 (research mode), and PAN; SCIAMACHY NO2; GOME2a NO2; MLS O3 and HNO3; and proxy TEMPO O3, and NO2 satellite retrievals as raw retrievals or as ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs) for profile retrievals. WRF-Chem/DART also assimilates in situ atmospheric composition measurements and uses the ‘state augmentation method’ for emissions estimation. In our presentation, we will provide an overview of WRF-Chem/DART: • applications and results; • lessons learned from: (i) independent versus joint assimilation; (ii) total/partial column versus profile retrieval assimilation; (iii) joint in situ and retrieval assimilation; (iv) assimilation at grid resolutions ranging from 100 km to 4 km; (v) dynamic emissions estimation; and • future work related to wildfire emissions estimation and intercomparison of CMAQ (online)/JEDI and CMAQ (online and offline)/DART.

WRF-Chem/DART↗

NASA NTRS2022

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.

Jonas Mortelmans↗