Challenges in determining b value in the Northwest Geysers
Past analyses of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value in the Geysers and other geothermal settings have revealed a deviation from the assumed linear relationship in log space between magnitude and the number of earthquakes. In this study of the Northwest Geysers, we found a gently-sloping discontinuity in the b-value curve. This is especially apparent when comparing the least-squares fit (LSQ) of the curve to the fit obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), a widely-respected method of analyzing magnitude-frequency relationships. This study will describe the assumptions made when using each of these two methods and will also explore how they can be used in conjunction to investigate the characteristics of the observed b-value curve. To understand whether slope-fit differences in the LSQR and MLE methods is due to physical properties of the system or due to artifacts from errors in sampling, it is extremely important to consider the catalog completeness, magnitude bin size, number of events, and differences in source mechanisms for the events comprising the study volume. This work will hopefully lead to informative interpretations of frequency-magnitude curves for the Northwest Geysers, a geothermal area of ongoing high-volume coldwater injection and steam production. Through this statistical investigation of the catalog contents, we hope to better understand the dominant source mechanisms and the role of injected fluids in the creation of seismic clustering around nearly 60 wells of varying depths and injection volumes.