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At least 595 records · Page 33

Sun-as-a-Star Spectral Line Variability in the 300–2390 nm Wavelength Range

Combining the near-daily Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) measurements of solar spectra, we construct line indices (line-core to line-flanks ratios) for various transitions (mainly Fe I) in the 300–2390 nm spectral domain. The indices are supplemented by the wavelength-binned fluxes from OMI and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1). To study the short-term (solar-rotational) patterns, we normalize the indices and fluxes to the minimum-activity epoch, then de-trend them with 81 day running means. Comparisons of the de-trended TSIS-1 and OMI fluxes with the NASA-NOAA-LASP SSI (NNLSSI1) model show excellent agreement, to (0.5–2.2) × 10 -4 in the normalized and de-trended data. The data are subjected to a multiregression analysis against quantities representing the facular brightening and the sunspot darkening. The de-trended line indices and average fluxes show different sensitivities to these two solar magnetic-activity manifestations, with the fluxes being far more susceptible to the sunspot component. The de-trended line indices experience a rapid drop of activity levels towards longer wavelengths, albeit with a large rebound in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) domain that is caused by the ubiquitous, temperature-sensitive CO transitions. The wavelength-dependent activity also falls, however much slower, in the de-trended average fluxes. Qualitatively similar behavior is captured by semiempirical models.

Solar spectral Irradiance↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

Distributed Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition

The annual Distributed Wind Market Report provides stakeholders with market statistics and analysis along with insights into market trends and characteristics for wind technologies used as distributed energy resources. This report presents the distributed wind market from 2003 through 2022. Installed capacity, deployment trends, customer types, incentives, policies, installed costs, performance, and the future outlook for the distributed wind market are the key topics included in the report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

System Retrofits in Efficiency Programs: Track Record and Outlook

Commercial building retrofits are often limited to simple upgrades of individual building components such as equipment or lamp replacements. These equipment- or component-level retrofits have been shown to have less potential for whole building energy savings (50% less in studied cases) compared to comprehensive system-based approaches. System retrofits with their potential for much greater savings are critical to achieving aggressive energy reduction goals in the existing building stock but to date there has been little deep analysis of the track record and trends for systems retrofits in commercial buildings. This paper addresses several questions: 1. To what extent are systems retrofits taking place in the building retrofit marketplace today? 2. Do current systems retrofits in fact save more energy than component retrofits? 3. What kinds of efficiency measures are currently most prevalent in system retrofits? 4. Does systems adoption vary across different retrofit programmatic approaches (e.g. utility incentive programs, federal retrofit programs, ESCOs)? Findings, based on an analysis of retrofit data from 12,000 projects across the U.S. from custom utility incentive programs, federal retrofit programs, and Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), indicate the state of the current market with respect to adoption of systems technologies. A wide range of stakeholders were also interviewed to define the challenges and opportunities for greater deployment. A range of barriers is presented including technical and structural (i.e. programmatic, policy), along with recommendations to accelerate deployment of these strategic approaches.

Regnier, Cynthia↗

Attosecond Time Delay Trends across the Isoelectronic Noble Gas Sequence

The analysis and measurement of Wigner time delays can provide detailed information about the electronic environment within and around atomic and molecular systems, with one the key differences being the lack of a long-range potential after a halogen ion undergoes photoionization. In this work, we use relativistic random-phase approximation to calculate the average Wigner delay from the highest occupied subshells of the atomic pairings (2p, 2s in Fluorine, Neon), (3p, 3s in Chlorine, Argon), (4p, 4s, 3d, in Bromine, Krypton), and (5p, 5s, 4d in Iodine, Xenon). The qualitative behaviors of the Wigner delays between the isoelectronic pairings were found to be similar in nature, with the only large differences occurring at photoelectron energies less than 20 eV and around Cooper minima. Interestingly, the relative shift in Wigner time delays between negatively charged halogens and noble gases decreases as atomic mass increases. All atomic pairings show large differences at low energies, with noble gas atoms showing large positive Wigner delays, while negatively charged halogen ions show negative delays. The implications for photoionization studies in halide-containing molecules is also discussed.

Grafstrom, Brock↗

Symbolic Analysis of Concurrent Programs with Polymorphism

The current trend of multi-core and multi-processor computing is causing a paradigm shift from inherently sequential to highly concurrent and parallel applications. Certain thread interleavings, data input values, or combinations of both often cause errors in the system. Systematic verification techniques such as explicit state model checking and symbolic execution are extensively used to detect errors in such systems [7, 9]. Explicit state model checking enumerates possible thread schedules and input data values of a program in order to check for errors [3, 9]. To partially mitigate the state space explosion from data input values, symbolic execution techniques substitute data input values with symbolic values [5, 7, 6]. Explicit state model checking and symbolic execution techniques used in conjunction with exhaustive search techniques such as depth-first search are unable to detect errors in medium to large-sized concurrent programs because the number of behaviors caused by data and thread non-determinism is extremely large. We present an overview of abstraction-guided symbolic execution for concurrent programs that detects errors manifested by a combination of thread schedules and data values [8]. The technique generates a set of key program locations relevant in testing the reachability of the target locations. The symbolic execution is then guided along these locations in an attempt to generate a feasible execution path to the error state. This allows the execution to focus in parts of the behavior space more likely to contain an error.

Rungta, Neha Shyam↗

Unraveling Fundamental Activity–Stability Relationships in Rutile Oxides

The oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is a key anodic half-cell reaction that accompanies several critical electrochemical reduction reactions of interest to a variety of applications. Despite steady advances in understanding and qualitatively predicting OER activity and selectivity trends, a comprehensive description or prediction of material aqueous (in)stability and degradation mechanisms remains elusive, even though these processes critically influence device lifetime and economic feasibility. In this work, we investigate the interplay, or lack thereof, between OER activity and material aqueous stability across rutile oxides, with a particular focus on iridium oxide (IrO 2 ). By applying a Born–Haber cycle, we calculate the thermodynamic driving force for metal dissolution as a function of the applied bias and electrolyte conditions. We apply interpretable machine learning techniques, including principal component analysis and symbolic regression, to analyze trends across rutile oxides and find that key thermodynamic descriptors for OER activity and surface stability are only very weakly correlated. Instead, the local atomic environment─especially electronic structure signatures for interactions between the active site and its neighbors─plays a more important role in predicting material stability. Leveraging these insights, we investigate the impact of doping IrO 2 with a range of transition metals and show that the stability of Ir active sites can be tuned largely independently of its predicted OER activity. These insights lay the foundation for material design to improve stability with respect to corrosion, with the ultimate aim to enhance long-term stability without sacrificing catalytic performance in the OER.

evolution reactions↗

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology for the Assessment of 3D Conduction Effects in an Aerothermal Wind Tunnel Test

This slide presentation reviews a method for the assessment of three-dimensional conduction effects during test in a Aerothermal Wind Tunnel. The test objectives were to duplicate and extend tests that were performed during the 1960's on thermal conduction on proturberance on a flat plate. Slides review the 1D versus 3D conduction data reduction error, the analysis process, CFD-based analysis, loose coupling method that simulates a wind tunnel test run, verification of the CFD solution, Grid convergence, Mach number trend, size trends, and a Sumary of the CFD conduction analysis. Other slides show comparisons to pretest CFD at Mach 1.5 and 2.16 and the geometries of the models and grids.

Oliver, Anthony Brandon↗

Impact of remote sensing upon the planning, management and development of water resources. Summary of computers and computer growth trends for hydrologic modeling and the input of ERTS image data processing load

An analysis of current computer usage by major water resources users was made to determine the trends of usage and costs for the principal hydrologic users/models. The laws and empirical relationships governing the growth of the data processing loads were described and applied to project the future data loads. Data loads for ERTS CCT image processing were computed and projected through the 1985 era. The analysis showns significant impact due to the utilization and processing of ERTS CCT's data.

Castruccio, P. A.↗

Statistical characterization of twin transmission across grain boundaries in magnesium

Here, a detailed statistical analysis of twin transmission (TT) across grain boundaries is performed in rolled, commercial purity magnesium compressed along the rolling direction. EBSD images are acquired from two different cuts: a section containing the rolling (RD) and normal (ND) directions; and a section at 35° to the ND which contains transverse direction (TD). An automated twinning analysis software, METIS, is used to obtain the statistical correlations between deformation twins and other microstructural features by analyzing EBSD microstructures comprising thousands of grains and twins. This detailed statistical analysis reveals that the TT propensity is sensitive to the grain boundary (GB) misorientation angle but not to the GB misorientation axis. Specifically, TT propensity decreases with increasing GB misorientation angle; however, the decreasing trend is not monotonic. Further, the detailed analysis of TT events combining macroscopic Schmid factor and the geometric measures (m’: accounts for the alignment of both twin plane normal and shear directions; m”: accounts for the alignment of only twin shear directions; and m”’: accounts for the alignment of only twin plane normal) helps in understanding and identifying the process of twin-pair formation, i.e., co-nucleation versus transmission, also to identify the role of local stresses at GBs induced by inter-grain interaction versus twinning shear transformation processes. In addition, Bayesian inference is used to draw statistically meaningful conclusions as to the likelihood of transmission given misorientation angles. Lastly, twin chain frequency as a function of chain length is predicted using the probability distribution obtained from the Bayesian inference and compared with the actual data from the EBSD microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗

Computational Heat Flux Analysis for HEATheR Electric Aircraft Wing Ice Protection Systems

Increased electrification of aircraft systems, a growing trend in the aircraft industry, affects subsystems that have historically been pneumatically driven by the engine. Optimized design of propulsion and power systems must account for the requirements of these subsystems. One such subsystem, the wing ice protection system, is the focus of this paper. A preliminary computational icing analysis has been conducted using the LEWICE and ANSYS FENSAP-ICE software to characterize the requirements of a thermal ice protection system for three More Electric Aircraft concepts. This paper summarizes the methodology, simulation execution, and icing conditions used for the analysis as well as discusses the results, observed trends, and impacts to system design. This initial analysis indicates that the computed heat requirements for the wing ice protection systems are not within the capabilities of known traditional systems. A discussion of potential methods for reducing the heat flow requirement by the ice protection system is included. Potential refinements to the analysis to improve the accuracy are also discussed.

Nic Heersema↗

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS On-Orbit Geolocation Trending and Improvements

Two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors have been in operations for more than 8.5 and 2.5 years since they were launched in October 2011 on SNPP satellite and in November 2017 on NOAA-20 satellite, respectively. These are two satellites in the Join Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation, of which Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) is a risk reduction satellite and NOAA-20 is the first of four JPSS satellites(JPSS-1 became NOAA-20 after launch). Accurate geolocation is a critical element in data calibration for accurate retrieval of global biogeophysical parameters. In this paper, we describe the latest trends in the continuously improved geolocation accuracy in VIIRS Collection-1 (C1) and C2 re-processing. We implemented a VIIRS instrument geometric model update (VIGMU)for both sensors that correct for geolocation error oscilations in the scan direction. We borrowed code from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) geolocation software to correct for time-dependent pointing variations, that are particularly acute in NOAA-20 VIIRS, and some pointing anomalies in SNPP VIIRS. We developed a Kalman Filter using gyrodata to correct for attitude errors due to the degradation of the star trackers performance from the SNPP satellite. We also present an improved ground control point matching (CPM) tool, in which the ground control point (GCP) chips library is refreshed using recently launched Landsat-8 images.

SNPP↗

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Trends in stratospheric temperature

Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗