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NASA NTRS2001

A Study of the Response of Deep Tropical Clouds to Mesoscale Processes: Modeling Strategies and Simulations of TOGA-COARE Convective Systems - Part 1

Interactions between deep tropical clouds over the western Pacific warm pool and the larger-scale environment are key to understanding climate change. Cloud models are an extremely useful tool in simulating and providing statistical information on heat and moisture transfer processes between cloud systems and the environment, and can therefore be utilized to substantially improve cloud parameterizations in climate models. In this paper, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model is used in multi-day simulations of deep tropical convective activity over the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Large-scale temperature and moisture advective tendencies, and horizontal momentum from the TOGA-COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA) region, are applied to the GCE version which incorporates cyclical boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments show that grid domain size produces the largest response to domain-mean temperature and moisture deviations, as well as cloudiness, when compared to grid horizontal or vertical resolution, and advection scheme. It is found that a minimum grid-domain size of 500 km is needed to adequately resolve the convective cloud features. The control experiment shows that the atmospheric heating and moistening is primarily a response to cloud latent processes of condensation/evaporation, and deposition/sublimation, and to a lesser extent, melting of ice particles. Air-sea exchange of heat and moisture is found to be significant, but of secondary importance, while the radiational response is small. The simulated rainfall and atmospheric heating and moistening, agrees well with observations, and performs favorably to other models simulating this case.

Johnson, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Physical Processes Governing Atmospheric Trace Constituents Measured from an Aircraft on PEM-Tropics

Before the mission, the PI (principal investigator) was instrumental in securing real-time use of the new 51-level ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological data. During the mission, he provided flight planning and execution guidance as meteorologist for the P-3B. Mr. Yong Zhu computed and plotted meteorological forecast maps using the ECMWF data and transmitted them to the field from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Dr. John Cho was in the field for the Christmas Island portion to extract data from the on-site NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) radars for local wind profiles that were used at the flight planning meetings. When the power supply for the VHF radar failed, he assisted the NOAA engineer in its repair. After the mission, Mr. Zhu produced meteorological data memos, which were made available to the PEM (Pacific Exploratory Mission)-Tropics B science team on request. An undergraduate student, Ms. Danielle Morse, wrote memos annotating the cloud conditions seen on the aircraft external monitor video tapes. Dr. Cho and the PI circulated a memo regarding the status (and associated problems) of the meteorological measurement systems on the DC-8 and P-3B to the relevant people on the science team. Several papers by members of our project were completed and accepted by JGR (Journal of Geophysical Research) for the first special section on PEM-Tropics B. These papers included coverage of the following topics: 1) examination of boundary layer data; 2) water vapor transport; 3) tropospheric trace constituent layers; 4) summarizations of the meteorological background and events during PEM-Tropics B; 5) concomitant lidar measurements of ozone, water vapor, and aerosol.

Newell, Reginald E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates, Science Highlights, and 3-Hour Global, Tropical Precipitation Estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1995

Transport of Volcanic Clouds Injected in the Tropics: Case Studies of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo

The eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon at nearly the same tropical latitude produced two of the largest volcanic clouds this century. Climatic effects of any volcanic eruption depend on spatial distribution of the volcanic cloud. We report the first global simulations which reproduce the markedly different inter-hemispheric transport observed for these clouds in the months immediately following each eruption. Differences in stratospheric mean easterly winds and unequal radiative heating of the clouds explain the different latitudinal transport. It is found that radiative heating of tropical clouds is insensitive to particle size for typical size ranges. Radiative energy balance of optically thick tropical volcanic clouds tends to position the clouds near 25 km altitude.

Young, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Physical and Optical/Radiative Characteristics of Aerosol and Cloud Particles in Tropical Cirrus: Importance in Radiation Balance

Whether cirrus clouds heat or cool the Earth-atmosphere system depends on the relative importance of the cloud shortwave albedo effect and the cloud thermal greenhouse effect. Both are determined by the distribution of ice condensate with cloud particle size. The microphysics instrument package flown aboard the NASA DC-8 in TOGA/COARE included an ice crystal replicator, a 2D Greyscale Cloud Particle Probe and a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Aerosol Probe. In combination, the electro-optical instruments permitted particle size measurements between 0.5 micrometer and 2.6 millimeter diameter. Ice crystal replicas were used to validate signals from the electrooptical instruments. Both optical and scanning electron microscopy were utilized to analyze aerosol and ice particle replicas between 0.1 micrometer and several 100 micrometer diameter. In first approximation, the combined aerosol-cloud particle spectrum in several clouds followed a power law N alpha D(sup -2.5). Thus, large cloud particles carried most of the condensate mass, while small cloud and aerosol particles determined the surface area. The mechanism of formation of small particles is growth of (hygroscopic, possibly ocean-derived) aerosol particles along the Kohler curves. The concentration of small particles is higher and less variable in space and time, and their tropospheric residence time is longer, than those of large cloud particles because of lower sedimentation velocities. Small particles shift effective cloud particle radii to sizes much smaller than the mean diameter of the cloud particles. This causes an increase in shortwave reflectivity and IR emissivity, and a decrease in transmissivity. Occasionally, the cloud reflectivity increased with altitude (decreasing temperature) stronger than did cloud emissivity, yielding enhanced radiative cooling at higher altitudes. Thus, cirrus produced by deep convection in the tropics may be critical in controlling processes whereby energy from warm tropical oceans is injected to different levels in the atmosphere to subsequently influence not only tropical but mid-latitude climate.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Mesoscale Gravity Waves Generated by Tropical Convection: An Examination of the Results

Convection represents the predominant source of gravity wave energy from the tropical troposphere. These gravity waves are of clear importance to stratospheric dynamics through their momentum flux, and the distribution of that momentum flux in phase speed. This momentum flux drives large scale mean circulations, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, which are important in the transport of trace constituents and pollutants from stratospheric aircraft. Unlike topographically generated waves, whose momentum flux is strongly peaked at one phase speed (stationary), the momentum flux distribution of highly transient convective sources is broadly distributed in phase speed. The nature of that distribution as well as the overall magnitude of the momentum flux associated with convectively generated gravity waves is important. This is because in the tropical stratosphere gravity waves break, deposit their momentum, and exert a drag at the level where their phase speed is comparable to the mean flow. In the tropics, the stratospheric mean flow varies strongly with altitude, season, and interannually. In fact, gravity waves play a critical role in driving these variations. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Relationship of Subvisible Cirrus Clouds Observed During NASA's Tropical Ozone

Pfister, L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Observations and Parameterizations of Particle Size Distributions in Deep Tropical Cirrus and Stratiform Precipitation Clouds: Results from In-Situ Observations in TRMM Field Campaigns

In this study, we report on the evolution of particle size distributions (PSDs) and habits as measured during slow, Lagrangian-type spiral descents through deep subtropical and tropical cloud layers in Florida, Brazil, and Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, most of which were precipitating. The objective of the flight patterns was to learn more about how the PSDs evolved in the vertical and to obtain information of the vertical structure of microphysical properties. New instrumentation yielding better information on the concentrations of particles in the size (D) range between 0.2 and 2 cm, as well as improved particle imagery, produced more comprehensive observations for tropical stratiform precipitation regions and anvils than have been available previously. Collocated radar observations provided additional information on the vertical structure of the cloud layers sampled. Most of the spirals began at cloud top, with temperatures (T) as low as -50 C, and ended at cloud base or below the melting layer (ML). The PSDs broadened from cloud top towards cloud base, with the largest particles increasing in size from several millimeters at cloud top to one centimeter or larger towards cloud base. Some continued growth was noted in the upper part of the ML. Concentrations of particles less than 1 mm in size decreased with decreasing height. The result was a consistent change in the PSDs in the vertical. Similarly, systematic changes in the size dependence of the particle cross-sectional area was noted with decreasing height. Aggregation-as ascertained from both the changes in the PSDs and evolution of particle habits as observed in high detail with the cloud particle imager (CPI) probe-was responsible for these trends. The PSDs were generally well-represented by gamma distributions of the form N = N0 gamma D microns e- lambda gamma D that were fitted to the PSDs over 1-km horizontal intervals throughout the spirals. The intercept (N0 gamma), slope (lambda gamma), and dispersion (microns) values were derived for each PSD. Exponential curves (N = N0e- lambdaD; micron = 0) were also fitted to the distributions. The lambda gamma values for given spirals varied systematically with temperature as did the values of lambda (exponential), and the data generally conformed to values found in previous studies involving exponential fits to size distributions in mid-latitude frontal and cirrus layers. Considerable variability often noted in the PSD properties during the loops of individual spirals was manifested primarily in large changes in N0 gamma and N0, but micron, lambda gamma and lambda remained fairly stable. Temperature is not found to be the sole factor controlling lambda gamma or lambda but is a primary one. Direct relationships were found between lambda gamma and N0 gamma or lambda gamma and micron for the gamma distributions and lambda and N0 for the exponential. The latter relationship was not found as distinctly in earlier studies; observed PSDs in this study had better fidelity with less scatter. The micron values changed monotonically with T over the range of temperatures and were directly related to N0 gamma or lambda gamma, thereby reducing the number of variables in the PSD functional equation to two. In the upper part of the ML, N0 and lambda continued to decrease, and in the lower part these values began to increase as the largest particles melted. We developed general expressions relating various bulk microphysical, radar, and radiative transfer-related variables to N0 gamma and lambda gamma, useful for both tropical and mid-latitude clouds. These relationships facilitate the specification of a number of bulk properties in cloud and climate models. The results presented in this paper apply best to temperatures between 0 and -40 C, for which the measured radar reflectivities fall in the range of 0 to 25 dBZe.

Heymsfield, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Observations of Subvisible Cirrus Clouds and Gravity Waves at the Tropical Tropopause

Thin, subvisible cirrus (SVC) clouds at the tropical tropopause have been observed by a number of methods in a variety of observational programs, including in situ sampling and aircraft and space-based lidar. Modeling studies suggest that these clouds play an important role in dehydrating tropospheric air as it enters the stratosphere. This is because particles large enough to have significant fall speeds can form under the conditions of slow cooling that are implied by the large horizontal extent of the SVC sheets. The IR radiation that these clouds absorb, and the upward vertical motion this implies, also makes them candidates for a tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere mass transfer mechanism. They may also play a role in the earth's radiation budget. These sheets were observed on five flights during the Tropical Ozone Transport Experiment (TOTE) by the NASA Langley DIAL lidar aboard NASA's DC-8 research aircraft operating during December 1995 and February 1996 south of Hawaii. The relationship of the SVC's observed during TOTE to convection was not a simple one. One class of SVC's are within 1000 km of the persistent strong convection near 15S (the SPCZ). Trajectory analyses indicated that the SVC air masses have in fact passed through the SPCZ within a few days of observation. These clouds are very close to the tropopause, with maximum potential temperatures not much higher than 370K, consistent with in situ water and total water measurements near the tropopause made during the Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange Project in January 1987 at Darwin, Australia. A second class of SVC's are not immediately downstream of convection. These clouds tend to be higher, reaching potential temperatures of 390K or more. Trajectory analyses indicate that the air in these SVC's originates either in the equatorial western Pacific or along the subtropical jet. In any case, the warm temperatures the SVC air masses encounter just prior to the observation time along the back trajectory imply that the clouds cannot be residual particles from cirrus blowoff, but must form locally as the air move upward and equatorward south of Hawaii. Since all the parcels have encountered colder temperatures than those at the time of observation early in their history, subsynoptic scale temperatures colder than the analysis temperatures appear to be required to explain the formation of ice particles. In fact, the sloping shapes of the SVC's do suggest that they are gravity or inertia-gravity waves. In situ meteorological measurements made by the ER-2 within a day of the DC-8 remote lidar observations show a gravity wave structure near the equator with an estimated period of about 30 hours. This is sufficiently long to allow large particles to form and fall out (thus allowing dehydration). Other ER-2 flights south of Hawaii at other times of year show gravity and inertia-gravity waves with a poleward wavenumber component and significant (5 degrees peak to peak) temperature perturbation.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS2002

TRMM Radar Observations of Cloud Tops in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Air dehydrates to stratospheric abundances in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The role of overshooting convection in the dehydration process is not well understood. To study this effect, we use the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation radar (PR) to measure the altitudes of cloud tops forming in the TTL. Because the radar signal is dominated by scatter from large particles, these cloud observations imply the presence of strong convective systems with large updraft. Both winter and summer data from two different years are examined to study both interseasonal and interannual variability. The global distribution of these clouds is in good agreement with those of the surface precipitation rates. In addition, the altitude distributions of these clouds follow an exponential dependence. However, clouds over continental regions typically extend to higher altitudes in the tropics. Almost no cloud tops were observed above 20 km. Comparison between the radar cloud tops and colocated IR brightness temperature measurements reveal a large difference in both the diurnal cycle and intensity between continental and oceanic convection.

Alcala, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Interannual Variability of the Bimodal Distribution of Summertime Rainfall Over Central America and Tropical Storm Activity in the Far-Eastern Pacific

The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2002

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Tropospheric Ozone Over a Tropical Atlantic Station in the Northern Hemisphere: Paramaribo, Surinam (6 deg N, 55 deg W)

We present an analysis of 2.5 years of weekly ozone soundings conducted at a new monitoring station in Paramaribo, Surinam (6 deg N,55 deg W). This is currently one of only three ozone sounding stations in the northern hemisphere (NH) tropics, and the only one in the equatorial Atlantic region. Paramaribo is part of the Southern Hemisphere ADditional Ozone Sounding program (SHADOZ). Due to its position close to the equator, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) passes over Paramaribo twice per year, which results in a semi-annual seasonality of many parameters including relative humidity and ozone. The dataset from Paramaribo is used to: (1) evaluate ozone variability relative to precipitation, atmospheric circulation patterns and biomass burning; (2) contrast ozone at the NH equatorial Atlantic with that at nearby southern hemisphere (SH) stations Natal (6 deg S,35 deg W) and Ascension (8 deg S,14 deg W); (3) compare the seasonality of tropospheric ozone with a satellite-derived ozone product: Tropical Tropospheric Ozone Columns from the Modified Residual method (MR-TTOC). We find that Paramaribo is a distinctly Atlantic station. Despite its position north of the equator, it resembles nearby SH stations during most of the year. Transport patterns in the lower and middle troposphere during February and March differ from SH stations, which leads to a seasonality of ozone with two maxima. MR-TTOC over Paramaribo does not match the observed seasonality of ozone due to the use of a SH ozone sonde climatology in the MR method. The Paramaribo ozone record is used to suggest an improvement for northern hemisphere MR-TTOC retrievals. We conclude that station Paramaribo shows unique features in the region, and clearly adds new information to the existing SHADOZ record.

Peters, W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Wu, Li-Guang↗

NASA NTRS2003

Insights into Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from Satellite and Sonde Data

The first climatological overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropical and subtropics is based on ozone sounding data from 10 sites comprising the Southern Hemisphere Additional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations were made over: Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. The data reside at: http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/shadoz. SHADOZ ozone time-series and profiles give a perspective on tropical total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone and a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone. Dynamical and chemical influences appear to be of comparable magnitude though model studies are needed to quantify this. In addition to leading the SHADOZ network, we have been producing near-real tropical tropospheric ozone ('TTO') data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) since 1997 with Prof. Hudson and students at the University of Maryland: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/~tropo. Further perspective on the complexity of tropospheric ozone variability is shown using satellite observations.

Thompson, Anne M.↗