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At least 595 records · Page 33

Simulation Modeling for Reliable Biomass Supply Chain Design Under Operational Disruptions

Lignocellulosic biomass derived fuels and chemicals are a promising and sustainable supplement for petroleum-based products. Currently, the lignocellulosic biofuel industry relies on a conventional system where feedstock is harvested, baled, stored locally, and then delivered in a low-density format to the biorefinery. However, the conventional supply chain system causes operational disruptions at the biorefinery mainly due to seasonal availability, handling problems, and quality variability in biomass feedstock. Operational disruptions decrease facility uptime, production efficiencies, and increase maintenance costs. For a low-value high-volume product where margins are very tight, system disruptions are especially problematic. In this work we evaluate an advanced system strategy in which a network of biomass processing centers (depots) are utilized for storing and preprocessing biomass into stable, dense, and uniform material to reduce feedstock supply disruptions, and facility downtime in order to boost economic returns to the bioenergy industry. A database centric discrete event supply chain simulation model was developed, and the impact of operational disruptions on supply chain cost, inventory and production levels, farm metrics and facility metrics were evaluated. Three scenarios were evaluated for a 7-year time-period: (1) bale-delivery scenario with biorefinery uptime varying from 20 to 85%; (2) pellet-delivery scenario with depot uptime varying from 20 to 85% and biorefinery uptime at 85%; and (3) pellet-delivery scenario with depot and biorefinery uptime at 85%. In scenarios 1 and 2, tonnage discarded at the field edge could be reduced by increasing uptime at facility, contracting fewer farms at the beginning and subsequently increasing contracts as facility uptime increases, or determining alternative corn stover markets. Harvest cost was the biggest contributor to the average delivered costs and inventory levels were dependent on facility uptimes. We found a cascading effect of failure propagating through the system from depot to biorefinery. Therefore, mitigating risk at a facility level is not enough and conducting a system-level reliability simulation incorporating failure dependencies among subsystems is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cryogenic control system operational experience at SNS

Abstract The helium cryogenic system at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) provides cooling to 81 superconducting radio frequency cavities. To support the operation of the cryogenic facility, a highly reliable control system consisting of software, hardware, and Human Machine Interface (HMI) has been developed and improved during the first fifteen years of operation. Integrating the cryogenic control system with other subsystems of the SNS complex is an important aspect to the success of the operation. The operating experience, lessons learned and recommendations to consider for future facilities will be detailed in this paper.

Howell, M. (ORCID:0000000310360707)↗

Stable Catalysts for Combined Dry and Steam Reforming of Methane and Carbon Dioxide

The specific aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive understanding of cheaper and more stable methane and carbon dioxide reforming catalysts with an optimal introduction of steam to reduce carbon deposits that typically prevent the catalytic systems from transferring to commercial implementation. The work was proposed as a two-year project with the end goal of to show a reliable catalyst system run for at least 400 hours at temperatures less than 800 °C with less than 5% loss of activity of the catalyst and a carbon monoxide to hydrogen product ratio of at least 1:1. The project went for one-year and met the end of year milestone by developing two strategies (use of a cerium co-catalyst and introducing 5% water) that reduced the carbon deposition rates by at least 20% relative to the baseline 10% NiMgAlO methane reforming of CO 2 at < 800 °C in order to shown technical feasibility of the concept.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reliable and Efficient Distributed Checkpointing System for Grid Environments

In Fine-Grained Cycle Sharing (FGCS) systems, machine owners voluntarily share their unused CPU cycles with guest jobs, as long as their performance degradation is tolerable. However, unpredictable evictions of guest jobs lead to fluctuating completion times. Checkpoint-recovery is an attractive mechanism for recovering from such “failures”. Today’s FGCS systems often use expensive, high-performance dedicated checkpoint servers. However, in geographically distributed clusters, this may incur high checkpoint transfer latencies. Here we present a distributed checkpointing system called FALCON that uses available disk resources of the FGCS machines as shared checkpoint repositories. However, an unavailable storage host may lead to loss of checkpoint data. Therefore, we model the failures of a storage host and develop a prediction algorithm for choosing reliable checkpoint repositories. We experiment with FALCON in the university-wide Condor testbed at Purdue and show improved and consistent performance for guest jobs in the presence of irregular resource availability.

checkpoint↗

Development of a Safe, Reliable, and Versatile Explosive Demolition Initiation System

Demolition contractors have a need to simultaneously detonate many demolition charges safely, cheaply, and reliably. An explosive distribution company has contracted the Initiation Systems Group at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory as consultants. The task is to develop a new, safer initiation system to detonate anywhere from 1 to 2000 demolition charges. The primary user of the system will be the explosive demolition contractors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Power Cycle Testing of Power Switches: A Literature Survey

Reliability of power converters and lifetime prediction has been a major topic of research in the last few decades, especially for traction applications. The main failures in high power semiconductors are caused by thermomechanical fatigue. Power cycling and temperature cycling are the two most common thermal acceleration tests used in assessing reliability. The objective of this paper is to study the various power cycling tests found in the literature and to develop generalized steps in planning application specific power cycling tests. A comparison of different tests based on the failures, duration, test circuits, and monitored electrical parameters is presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-operator Production Cost Modeling

As contiguous power systems are often operated by several regional system operators, optimization models have traditionally been designed to generate optimal system-wide scheduling decisions. This report introduces an approach to reflect the existence of multiple system operators making scheduling decisions within an interconnected power system. The approach is explicitly designed to reflect each operator's limited knowledge about other regions when making scheduling decisions. Detailed analysis using a modified IEEE Reliability Test System reveals that the approach mimics real system operations by providing imperfect information to each operator about external operations and external constraints. The approach scales to a 78,000-bus model of the Eastern Interconnection, where a regression analysis provides quantitative insight into which constraints cause inefficiencies when improperly managed in a multi-operator simulation. Because the approach generates distinct regional scheduling problems, unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations can be applied to individual regions and solved in parallel, enabling production cost simulations at a previously intractable scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Grid Capacity – What is it, what determines it, does one number work, and how does it relate to electric vehicles?

Grid capacity is effectively how much power the system can reliably deliver, whether that is to serve loads (load service capacity) or accept generation (hosting capacity). Grid capacity can also mean different things at different scales. On the whole power system, grid capacity may be the maximum amount of power generation available. For a specific region, grid capacity may be limited by how much power the transmission and distribution lines can safely carry to that region. At the feeder level, it may be how much photovoltaic generation can be included before reliability or operations are impacted. At the end-use or residential level, grid capacity may be the size of the service breaker for that house.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Emulytics for Cyber-Enabled Physical Attack Scenarios: Interim LDRD Report of Year One Results.

Sandia National Laboratories has funded the research and development of a new capability to interactively explore the effects of cyber exploits on the performance of physical protection systems. This informal, interim report of progress summarizes the project’s basis and year one (of two) accomplishments. It includes descriptions of confirmed cyber exploits against a representative testbed protection system and details the development of an emulytics capability to support live, virtual, and constructive experiments. This work will support stakeholders to better engineer, operate, and maintain reliable protection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SNS Credited Beam Power Limit System Preliminary Design

The Controls Group at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is designing a programmable signal processor based credited safety control that calculates pulsed beam power based on beam kinetic energy and charge. The system must reliably shut off the beam if the average power exceeds 2.145 MW averaged over 60 seconds. This paper discusses architecture and design choices needed to develop the system under the auspices of a programmable radiation-safety credit control.

Deibele, Craig↗

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design and Cosimulation of Hierarchical Architecture for Demand Response Control and Coordination

Demand response (DR) plays a key role for optimum asset utilization and to avoid or delay the need of new infrastructure investment. However, coordinated execution of multiple DRs is desired to maximize the DR benefits. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical DR architecture (HDRA) to control and coordinate the performance of various DR categories such that the operation of every DR category is backed-up by time delayed action of the others. A reliable, cost-effective communication infrastructure based on ZigBee, WiMAX, and fibers is designed to facilitate the HDRA execution. The performance of the proposed HDRA is demonstrated from the power system and communication perspectives in a cosimulation environment applied to a 0.4 kV/400 kVA real distribution network considering electric vehicles as a potential DR resource (DRR). The power simulation is performed employing a real time digital simulator whereas the communication simulation is performed using OMNeT++. Finally, the HDRA performance demonstrated the maximum utilization of available DR potential by facilitating simultaneous execution of multiple DRs and enabling participation of single DRR for multiple grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Interconnection of Distributed Energy Resources in the Indian Context: IEEE 1547-2018 Adaptation for Locally-Appropriate Grid Code Development

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) in India and ambitious renewable energy goals set forth by the Indian government have created the need for appropriate distribution interconnection standards to ensure continued system stability, reliability, and resilience. Existing DER interconnection codes in India, at the time of publishing this report, lack many of the critical grid support functionalities for DERs which may protect bulk system stability, such as event ride-through provisions, frequency droop control, or appropriate trip thresholds given the increasing importance of distributed generation. The formal adoption of IEEE 1547-2018 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) marks a significant step towards achieving appropriate interconnection of DERs, though the implementation of such a standard must be accompanied with careful consideration of the current codes, regulations, and operation of the Indian power system. Studies on the performance of the functionalities within 1547-2018, which properly incorporate local operating conditions, can inform decisions related to the adoption and adaptation of the clauses present in the standard. This report outlines several of these key considerations for stakeholders and provides analyses illustrating the performance of grid support functionalities on typical Indian distribution feeders.

1547↗

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

System Engineers and Decisions: It?s All about Knowledge

In order to guarantee that a system meets adequate levels of reliability and availability, system performances are continuously monitored and analyzed thanks to the technological advancements driving the Industry 4.0 revolution. An Industry 4.0 approach is typically based on advanced statistical, big data mining, machine learning, and internet-of-things methods designed to detect anomalies in the behavior of system, detect the most likely failure modes, and provide indications to system engineers on when maintenance activities should be performed before system performance are deemed unacceptable (which can be generated by diagnostic and prognostic methods). However, these analyses, which are designed to automatize and increase the efficacy of the system maintenance program, require large amount of data which can come in various forms: numeric, textual, images, sounds etc. Such data constitutes the historic knowledge benchmark to track system performances and support system engineer decisions. Here we claim that data is not sufficient to support this kind of analyses when applied to systems characterized by complex architectures and behaviors. Robust system engineer decisions require the ability to understand the system operational context that lies behind the observed data elements. In this respect, system models are in fact necessary to “put data in context” and capture relationships between data elements. Industry 4.0 methods require in fact contextual knowledge as a basis upon which hypotheses can be generated and assumptions tested. In our view, for complex systems, model-based system engineering (MBSE) models can afford this contextual knowledge, as they are typically used to describe systems architecture and dynamic behaviors. System knowledge is here intended as the blending of collected data and system architecture which takes the form of a “knowledge graph”. A knowledge graph is a database which consists of a large set of nodes (in our case an entity can be either a data or an MBSE element) which are linked to each other. The types of nodes and links follow a pre-defined topology, sometimes also refers as an ontology, that is designed to fit the actual decisions that needs to be performed. We show here how a knowledge graph can be defined to support system engineer maintenance decisions and how the same graph can be built based on system MBSE models and pre-processed data from numeric (through anomaly detections and diagnostic methods) and textual elements (through technical language processing TLP).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗