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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and simulation of gas separations with spiral–wound membranes

Models for gas separations with spiral–wound membranes are developed and found to exhibit good agreement with experiments performed on N 2 /O 2 mixtures. The two–dimensional (2D) model can be accurately approximated by a one–dimensional (1D) surrogate model when the spacer widths are chosen to make the channel pressure drops small. Subsequently, the separation of propane/propylene mixtures from the recycle purge stream of a polypropylene reactor is investigated. Assuming ideal gas is found to lead to significant overestimations in membrane stage cuts (sometimes more than 10%), an extent comparable to that associated with extrapolating constant olefin permeance from a low–pressure condition. While olefin permeance can change significantly with pressure, using a constant–permeance formulation can result in a small (< 2.5%) underprediction in stage cut if the value for the permeance is taken from the feed condition. Finally, membrane properties and costs necessary for a viable separation process are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced prediction of terrestrial feedbacks to the coastal carbon cycle:using machine learning to improve sub-grid biogeochemical processes

Focal Areas: The paper aims to improve predictability of the coastal carbon cycle through improved model representation and quantification of the terrestrial feedbacks to aquatic ecosystems. The paper covers two focus areas, 1. Improved predictive modeling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry through ML-enabled surrogate models, and 2. Employing machine learning to integrate multimodal data sets collected across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at high spatial and temporal resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved surrogates in inertial confinement fusion with manifold and cycle consistencies

Neural networks have become the method of choice in surrogate modeling because of their ability to characterize arbitrary, high-dimensional functions in a data-driven fashion. This paper advocates for the training of surrogates that are 1) consistent with the physical manifold, resulting in physically meaningful predictions, and 2) cyclically consistent with a jointly trained inverse model; i.e., backmapping predictions through the inverse results in the original input parameters. We find that these two consistencies lead to surrogates that are superior in terms of predictive performance, are more resilient to sampling artifacts, and tend to be more data efficient. Using inertial confinement fusion (ICF) as a test-bed problem, we model a one-dimensional semianalytic numerical simulator and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Learning of Accurate Surrogates for Simulations of Complex Systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse, or dynamic data. We introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation of state model can be reliably auto-generated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subsampling of Parametric Models with Bifidelity Boosting

Least squares regression is a ubiquitous tool for building emulators (a.k.a. surrogate models) of problems across science and engineering for purposes such as design space exploration and uncertainty quantification. When the regression data are generated using an experimental design process (e.g., a quadrature grid) involving computationally expensive models, or when the data size is large, sketching techniques have shown promise at reducing the cost of the construction of the regression model while ensuring accuracy comparable to that of the full data. However, random sketching strategies, such as those based on leverage scores, lead to regression errors that are random and may exhibit large variability. To mitigate this issue, we present a novel boosting approach that leverages cheaper, lower-fidelity data of the problem at hand to identify the best sketch among a set of candidate sketches. This in turn specifies the sketch of the intended high-fidelity model and the associated data. We provide theoretical analyses of this bifidelity boosting (BFB) approach and discuss the conditions the low- and high-fidelity data must satisfy for a successful boosting. In doing so, we derive a bound on the residual norm of the BFB sketched solution relating it to its ideal, but computationally expensive, high-fidelity boosted counterpart. Finally, empirical results on both manufactured and PDE data corroborate the theoretical analyses and illustrate the efficacy of the BFB solution in reducing the regression error, as compared to the nonboosted solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient learning of accurate surrogates for simulations of complex systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse or dynamic data. Here, we introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data, and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation-of-state model can be reliably autogenerated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous control of the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D using model-based optimal control techniques

Future tokamak power plants will likely operate using a single, well-defined plasma scenario, either in steady state or for very long pulse lengths. In order to enhance the robustness of the scenario, feedback controllers for a variety of plasma properties will be necessary to counteract any disturbances and ensure safe operation. However, only a limited set of actuators will be available to control many different quantities. Because of this, it is necessary to develop controllers that are able to regulate multiple plasma properties using a limited set of actuators. To this end, a controller has been developed for the simultaneous regulation of both the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D. This algorithm uses a linear quadratic integral control synthesis approach based on a linearized model of the dynamics of the two profiles. Two neural network surrogate models, NubeamNet and MMMnet, are included to improve the fidelity of the model. Furthermore, the controller has been tested in simulation using COTSIM, and has demonstrated the ability to simultaneously track changes in both the electron temperature and safety factor targets, including changes in both the magnitude and the shape of the profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Corrosion of U233-Doped Uranium Oxide using Microfluidics Methods

The aim of work this year has been to investigate the role of alpha (α)-radiation and hydrogen (H 2 ) on the corrosion of uranium oxide (UO 2 ) using a microfluidic device. The microfluidic device, termed the Particle-Attached Microfluidic Electrochemical Cell, (PAMEC), enables monitoring of the UO 2 electrochemical corrosion potential (E corr ) under different environments, including de-aerated conditions and in the presence of dissolved H 2 . The Si 3 N 4 window allows us to study morphological and chemical changes under an electron microscope. We have previously demonstrated that the PAMEC matches the results from bulk electrochemical tests with UO 2 [1]. We used the high specific activity uranium (U) isotope, 233 U, (t 1/2 = 160,000 years) incorporated into UO 2 , to generate a localized a-field. The objective of the experiments were to mimic the radiation environment that would be experience at the surface of aged spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during long-term geologic disposal under anoxic conditions. Wittman et al. [2] predicted that in the presence of a pure a-radiation field and under H 2 conditions, the concentration of the radiolytic oxidant H 2 O 2 would be suppressed or even eliminated. In a UO 2 corrosion experiment this would be exhibited through a lowering of the measured UO 2 corrosion potential compared to identical conditions in the absence of dissolved H 2 . We found that the predictions of Wittman and co-workers were supported and that the corrosion potential of the 233 U-doped UO 2 in solution lowered with presence of H 2 gas and increased in the absence of H 2 , when under anoxic conditions. The PAMEC experiments indicate that H 2 O 2 has been eliminated in a solution sparged with H 2 while exposed to an a-radiation field. The corrosion potential of the a-doped 233 U(10%)- 238 UO 2 in a solution sparged with Ar/H 2 matched the corrosion potential of 238 UO 2 in solution sparged with air. This clearly demonstrated that the H 2 O 2 had been eliminated and that the only oxidant present was O 2 in this system in complete agreement with the modeling results of Wittman et al. These results point to the need to improve the Fuel Matrix Degradation (FMD) Process Model training data set that is being used in the FMD surrogate model that is being developed for the repository program. The incorporation of realistic radiation chemistry will improve the scientific basis for the FMD Model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics

Abstract. Microbial activity and chemical reactions in porous media depend on the local conditions at the pore scale and can involve complex feedback with fluid flow and mass transport. We present a modeling framework that quantitatively accounts for the interactions between the bio(geo)chemical and physical processes and that can integrate genome-scale microbial metabolic information into a dynamically changing, spatially explicit representation of environmental conditions. The model couples a lattice Boltzmann implementation of Navier–Stokes (flow) and advection–diffusion-reaction (mass conservation) equations. Reaction formulations can include both kinetic rate expressions and flux balance analysis, thereby integrating reactive transport modeling and systems biology. We also show that the use of surrogate models such as neural network representations of in silico cell models can speed up computations significantly, facilitating applications to complex environmental systems. Parallelization enables simulations that resolve heterogeneity at multiple scales, and a cellular automaton module provides additional capabilities to simulate biofilm dynamics. The code thus constitutes a platform suitable for a range of environmental, engineering and – potentially – medical applications, in particular ones that involve the simulation of microbial dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Stochastic Computer Models: A Review with Opportunities

In modern science, computer models are often used to understand complex phenomena and a thriving statistical community has grown around analyzing them. This review aims to bring a spotlight to the growing prevalence of stochastic computer models-providing a catalogue of statistical methods for practitioners, an introductory view for statisticians (whether familiar with deterministic computer models or not), and an emphasis on open questions of relevance to practitioners and statisticians. Gaussian process surrogate models take center stage in this review, and these, along with several extensions needed for stochastic settings, are explained. The basic issues of designing a stochastic computer experiment and calibrating a stochastic computer model are prominent in the discussion. Instructive examples, with data and code, are used to describe the implementation of, and results from, various methods.

agent based model↗