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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A new effective theory for stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics

Thermal fluctuations are a fundamental feature of dissipative systems that are essential for understanding physics near the expected critical point of QCD and in small systems. When such fluctuations are modeled naively in relativistic systems, strange features can appear such as negative self-correlation functions. We construct an effective theory for nonlinear stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics that ensure a well-posed mathematical formulation. Using Crooks fluctuation theorem, we derive a symmetry of the effective action that incorporates fluctuations through a suitable free energy functional. For divergence type theories, the action can then be fully specified using a single vector generating current. The equations of motion obtained using this procedure are guaranteed to be flux conservative and symmetric hyperbolic when the dynamics is causal. This ensures that these equations are well-posed (for suitable initial data) and are in a form that can easily be simulated, including with Metropolis techniques.

Mullins, Nicki [University of Illinois at Urbana-C↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Flexible Generator Operating Regions via Chance- constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment

Here, we introduce a novel chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model to address uncertainty in renewables' production uncertainty in power systems operation. For most thermal generators,underlying technical constraints that are universally treated as "hard" by deterministic unit commitment models are in fact based on engineering judgments, such that system operators can periodically request operation outside these limits in non-nominal situations, e.g., to ensure reliability. We incorporate this practical consideration into a chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model, specifically by in-frequently allowing minor deviations from the minimum and maximum thermal generator power output levels. We demonstrate that an extensive form of our model is computationally tractable for medium-sized power systems given modest numbers of scenarios for renewables' production. We show that the model is able to potentially save significant annual production costs by allowing infrequent and controlled violation of the traditionally hard bounds imposed on thermal generator production limits. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of optimal solutions to our model under two restricted regimes and observe similar qualitative results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrusive approaches as a step towards accounting for stochasticity in wind turbine design

Current wind turbine design methods require tens of thousands of time-domain simulations and use different random seeds to account for the stochasticity of the environmental conditions. The account of stochasticity is nonintrusive because the sampling method calls a deterministic model multiple times without changing its underlying equations. In this work, we investigate and demonstrate using simple proof of concepts how intrusive approaches can be used to directly account for stochasticity in the equations representing a mechanical system. Our long term goal is to apply such methodology to the design of wind turbines without requiring an excessive number of simulations. Intrusive methods manipulate stochastic variables directly to provide the probability density functions (PDFs) of the states and outputs at any time as functions of the PDFs of the inputs. We illustrate how different methods can be used with a reduced-order model of a wind turbine with one degree of freedom and for linear and nonlinear models. We discuss how the methods can be extended and what it will take to apply them to a level of fidelity similar to current state-of-the-art wind turbine design tools.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic and mixed density functional theory within the projector augmented wave formalism for simulation of warm dense matter

Stochastic density functional theory (DFT) and mixed stochastic-deterministic DFT are burgeoning approaches for the calculation of the equation of state and transport properties in materials under extreme conditions. In the intermediate warm dense matter regime, a state between correlated condensed matter and kinetic plasma, electrons can range from being highly localized around nuclei to delocalized over the whole simulation cell. The plane-wave basis pseudopotential approach is thus the typical tool of choice for modeling such systems at the DFT level. Unfortunately, stochastic DFT methods scale as the square of the maximum plane-wave energy in this basis. To reduce the effect of this scaling and improve the overall description of the electrons within the pseudopotential approximation, we present stochastic and mixed DFT approaches developed and implemented within the projector augmented wave formalism. In conclusion, we compare results between the different DFT approaches for both single-point and molecular dynamics trajectories and present calculations of self-diffusion coefficients of solid density carbon from 1 to 50 eV.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-stage stochastic programming model for adaptive biomass processing operation under uncertainty

Variations of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass reduce equipment utilization and increase operational costs of biomass processing. Biomass processing facilities use sensors to monitor the changes in biomass characteristics. Integrating sensory data into the operational decisions in biomass processing will increase its flexibility to the changing biomass conditions. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes the expected operational costs by identifying the initial inventory level and creating an operational decision policy for equipment speed settings. These policies take the sensory information data and the current biomass inventory level as inputs to dynamically adjust inventory levels and equipment settings according to the changes in the biomass' characteristics. We ensure that a prescribed target reactor utilization is consistently achieved by penalizing the violation of the target reactor feeding rate. A case study is developed using real-world data collected at Idaho National Laboratory's biomass processing facility. We show the value of multi-stage stochastic programming from an extensive computational experiment. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that updating the infeed rate of the system, the processing speed of equipment, and bale sequencing based on the moisture level of biomass improves the processing rate of the reactor and reduces operating costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Distribution System Adaptive Restoration with Diverse Distributed Energy Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) can be utilized as alternative power sources for fast service recovery in cases of distribution system outages. However, the diverse characteristics and stochastic nature of DERs impose challenges on the optimal operation of di-verse resources during the restoration phase. Here, we introduce a hierarchical structure to coordinate distribution system entities and propose an adaptive restoration strategy to sustain a reliable power supply to outage loads in an unbalanced distribution system utilizing DERs. An efficient system reconfiguration model is developed to guarantee the radiality of restoration islands. The flexibility of DERs is evaluated by a novel method that focuses on the cumulative energy consumption, the superiority of which is also proven. Model predictive control (MPC) is adopted to enable the adjustment of system topology and DER operation strategies based on up-to-date data. The performance of the proposed restoration model is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed novel flexibility assessment and the MPC-based adaptive restoration strategy are verified through comparative studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multidimensional approach to quantum state tomography of photoelectron wavepackets

There is a growing interest in reconstructing the density matrix of photoelectron wavepackets, in particular in complex systems where decoherence can be introduced either by a partial measurement of the system or through coupling with a stochastic environment. To this end, several methods to reconstruct the density matrix, quantum state tomography protocols, have been developed and tested on photoelectrons ejected from noble gases following absorption of extreme ultraviolet (XUV) photons from attosecond pulses. It remains a challenge to obtain model-free, single scan protocols that can reconstruct the density matrix with high fidelities. Current methods require extensive measurements or involve complex fitting of the signal. Efficient single-scan reconstructions would be of great help to increase the number of systems that can be studied. We propose a new and more efficient protocol that is able to reconstruct the continuous variable density matrix of a photoelectron in a single time delay scan. It is based on measuring the coherences of a photoelectron created by absorption of an XUV pulse using a broadband infrared (IR) probe that is scanned in time and a narrowband IR reference that is temporally fixed to the XUV pulse. We illustrate its performance for a Fano resonance in He as well as mixed states in Ar arising from spin-orbit splitting. We show that the protocol results in excellent fidelities and near-perfect estimation of the purity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime,few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Sexstone, Matthew G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level. ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed. Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided. This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime, few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Sexstone, Matthew G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMOC Stability in GISS-E2-1-G: A Case of Stochastic Bifurcation

A 10-member ensemble simulation using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2-4.5 future scenario, leading to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 stable AMOC-off climate states after 400 years of integration, despite identical forcing of each ensemble member. Ocean models have previously shown a tipping point where sufficient forcing (e.g. by freshwater inputs) can shut down the AMOC. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated this, either through hosing experiments or increased precipitation and warming at high latitudes due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability associated with sea-ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea following a slowing of the GHG concentration increase at the end of the twenty-first century. We believe this is the first time that a CMIP-class model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble.

GISS ModelE2.1↗
DOE OSTI2026

Preparing Fermions via Classical Sampling and Linear Combinations of Unitaries

We present an extension of the Evolving density matrices on Qubits (E$ρ$OQ) framework that enables efficient fault-tolerant preparation of fermionic quantum states. The original method circumvents state preparation by stochastic sampling, but faces a sign problem in fermionic systems leading to a large number of circuits necessary. We resolve this by combining classical stochastic sampling with a linear combination of unitaries method that avoids the exponential circuit scaling that plagued naïve implementations. The resulting algorithm requires $\mathcal{O}(M^2)$$R_Z$ rotations for circuit preparation, where $M$ is the number of retained basis states. We validate the method for ground and excited states in the Thirring model, including by computing two-point correlation functions relevant to scattering. In this model for fixed accuracy $\varepsilon$, $M$ is found to scale empirically as $M \propto \frac{1}{mg}\log(1/g)\log(1/m)$.

Gustafson, Erik J. [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000↗
NASA NTRS1988

Integrated communication and control systems. II - Design considerations

The ICCS design issues for nonperiodic and stochastic delays are addressed and the framework for alternative design procedures is outlined. The impact of network-induced delays on system stability is investigated and their physical significance is demonstrated using a simulation. The negative effects of vacant sampling and message rejection at the controller are demonstrated.

Ray, Asok↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Zonal Reserve Requirements for Improved Energy Deliverability with Wind Power

In power systems with high penetration of renewable energy resources, uncertainty and variability of these stochastic resources introduce additional challenges for the operation of power systems. To improve the power system's reliability in the face of uncertainty, reserves are required as additional generation capacity to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reserve deliverability is not guaranteed, because it may encounter potential transmission line congestion. Zonal reserve requirements can address this issue, but operators lack efficient ways to allocate reserves to zones while accounting for wind power forecast uncertainty. Herein we propose a methodology for probabilistic zonal reserve requirements to address wind power forecast uncertainties. This method estimates the probability distribution of line flows based on the system generation margin and injection shift factor. This estimate is then used to construct pre-defined and post-zonal reserve requirements. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method efficiently schedules energy and reserves to balance energy and manage deliverability with wind power forecast uncertainty.We also discuss operational implications of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey (Chapter 3)

Our inner Solar System has the four terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, along with Earth’s large Moon, two small moons of Mars, dwarf planet Ceres, numerous 100-km class asteroids, and a multitude of small bodies that populate the asteroid belt and the inner planet region. To what extent does this structure reflect a deterministic outcome of general Solar System formation processes, and how much of it is instead a consequence of stochastic events that would change in unpredictable ways if the system’s formation could be rerun? This fundamental question motivates scientific investigations of the inner Solar System, with implications not only for understanding our own planet’s origin but also for the origin of planetary systems and Earth-like planets beyond our own.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗