Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

586 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Excitation of whistler and slow-X waves by runaway electrons in a collisional plasma

Runaway electrons are known to provide robust ideal or collisionless kinetic drive for plasma wave instabilities in both the whistler and slow-X branches, via the anomalous Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonances. In a cold and dense post-thermal-quench plasma, collisional damping of the plasma waves can compete with the collisionless drive. Previous studies have found that, due to their higher wavelength and frequency, slow-X waves suffer stronger collisional damping than the whistlers, while the ideal growth rate of slow-X modes is higher. Here, we study runaway avalanche distributions that maintain the same eigen distribution and increase only in magnitude over time. The distributions are computed from the relativistic Fokker–Planck–Boltzmann solver, upon which a linear dispersion analysis is performed to search for the most unstable or least damped slow-X and whistler modes. Taking into account the effect of plasma density, plasma temperature, and effective charge number, we find that the slow-X modes tend to be excited before the whistlers in a runaway current ramp-up. Furthermore, even when the runaway current density is sufficiently high that both branches are excited, the most unstable slow-X mode has a much higher growth rate than the most unstable whistler mode. The qualitative and quantitative trends uncovered in the current study indicate that even though past experiments and modeling efforts have concentrated on whistler modes, there is a compelling case that slow-X modes should also be a key area of focus in the runaway self-mediation through wave instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

black hole mergers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial study on cross-section generation requirements for a PBR equilibrium core

A Serpent model of the equilibrium core HTR-PM small modular nuclear reactor in China, was developed for use in cross-section preparation studies in order to guide methods development for the Griffin reactor multiphysics application. The model includes detailed isotopics for 10 distinct pebble burnup groups in 126 core zones with unique fuel and moderator temperatures obtained from a coupled neutronics-thermal-fluids equilibrium core calculation using Griffin-Pronghorn. A sensitivity study of the fuel and moderator temperatures for various core regions was performed with the MOOSE stochastic tools. The results show that the uncertainties are, not unexpectedly, dominated by the value of the fluid temperature and that the power level, heat transfer coefficient and effective conduction to neighboring pebbles and fluid constitute, at best, second order effects. The temperature uncertainty range varies from 28 K to 57 K between the core entry and exit planes, respectively, but these values are probably higher. We still have to quantify the significance of these uncertainties in the preparation of cross-sections in future work. In addition, we verified that the effective pebble approximation used in the PEBBED and V.S.O.P. computer codes works well for the preparation of region averaged cross-sections. Nevertheless, there are some discrepancies in the cross-sections when compared to the multi-pebble model, which could affect the prediction of peak values and the depletion calculation. We conclude that is highly desirable for future studies with Griffin to be able to handle both the 'effective' pebble approximation and the multi-pebble approach for various pebble burnup groups. This enables Griffin users with the flexibility to perform higher-fidelity studies. Finally, we initiated the preparation of cross-sections for various core regions from the full core Serpent reference model. We quantified the differences in 26 group cross-sections from infinite domain models versus the full core approach. These reference cross-sections will serve to verify the double heterogeneity, self-shielding, and spectrum-correction methods in Griffin. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inspection of next-generation EUV resists with nano-projectile secondary ion mass spectrometry

There is a rapidly growing need for new materials for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which incorporate high EUV absorbing elements. Hybrid resists, which are a combination of inorganic and organic moieties, are promising as they offer both high EUV sensitivity and high etch resistance. However, there is a glaring lack of methods to examine the uniformity of these important materials at the nanoscale. We examine the capabilities of nano-projectile secondary ion mass spectrometry (NP-SIMS) to investigate hybrid resists. NP-SIMS is a mass spectrometry-based technique with high lateral resolution. Using NP-SIMS, a surface is probed stochastically with a suite of individual projectiles, 10 6 to 10 7 in total, separated in time and space. Examining these individual mass spectra allows for nanoscale investigation of the uniformity of the surface. We evaluated the performance of NP-SIMS using samples of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) infiltrated with varying amounts of InO x via vapor-phase infiltration (VPI), an organic–inorganic hybridization method derived from atomic layer deposition. Here, we found that NP-SIMS measurements contained abundant characteristic ions related to both the PMMA and infiltrated In. The intensity of In atomic ions increased linearly with the number of infiltration cycles; however, the uniformity of In and PMMA varied with the number of infiltration cycles. After one cycle, we found that both the PMMA and In were relatively inhomogeneous. The homogeneity improved with subsequent infiltration cycles. In addition, NP-SIMS measurements contained characteristic ions related to the infiltration reaction and provided insights into the VPI mechanism. Overall, the results show that NP-SIMS is capable of examining both the inorganic and organic moieties in a hybrid resist and will be an important method for understanding the performance of these materials for use in EUV lithography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF IGNITION AND PREMIXED FLAME PROPAGATION INITIATED BY A PRE-CHAMBER TURBULENT JET

Addressing the pressing need for reduced carbon emissions, Turbulent Jet Ignition (TJI) emerges as a promising technology for ultra-lean combustion, offering enhanced thermal efficiencies and minimized cyclic variability in spark-ignited engines. To facilitate rapid testing and integration of this technology, a robust computational modeling framework is crucial. This study delves into the predictive capabilities of computational models for main-chamber ignition and premixed flame propagation using a single-cycle TJI rig measured by Biswas et al. (Applied Thermal Engineering, vol 106, 2016). Employing an open-source compressible flow simulation solver with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for turbulence modeling, the investigation integrates the conventional Laminar Finite Rate Chemistry (LFRC) model alongside the transported Probability Density Method (PDF) for turbulence-chemistry interaction. A fully-consistent Eulerian Monte-Carlo Fields (EMCF) method is utilized to approximate the transported PDF, while Interaction by Exchange with Mean is employed to close micro-mixing terms in stochastic differential equations. A reduced chemical reaction mechanism with 21 species and 84 reactions (DRM-19) is used for solving chemical kinetics, and a double Gaussian energy deposition model is used to approximate the spark ignition in the pre-chamber. An unstructured O-grid mesh with 0.3 million cells in the prechamber and 1 million cells in the main chamber is employed. Results are divided into two phases: pre-chamber initialization and full TJI simulations. Validation of the predicted pre-chamber flame propagation and the lean ignition in the main-chamber is carried out by using available experimental data. Under quiescent conditions, both the LFRC and transported PDF methods largely underestimate the flame speed and subsequent pressure growth in the pre-chamber. A linear momentum forcing technique is applied to investigate the impact of initial turbulence in the pre-chamber, demonstrating a notable influence on flame propagation. Fine-tuning of the forcing coefficient reproduces the sudden pressure growth observed in the experiment. The experimentally validated pre-chamber simulation serves as the initial condition for the full TJI simulations. It is found that the LFRC model fails to predict lean-ignition in the main-chamber, resulting in a misfiring event. Incorporation of turbulence-chemistry interaction using the transported PDF method substantially improves the prediction of the ignition event in the main-chamber, achieving fair qualitative agreement and quantitative validation of combustion parameters within ±10% of the reported experimental data. The rich simulation results consisting of a full set of statistical description of the thermo-chemical states enable us to gain deep insights into the ignition mechanisms in the main chamber, which is limited when done experimentally. A novel dual ignition phenomenon is revealed in the TJI rig for the first time. Initially, a primary ignition kernel is formed at a downstream location which eventually detaches from the main jet. As the jet momentum decreases, a secondary ignition event follows, this time at a more upstream location which eventually combines with the primary ignition kernel to form a single connected flame front. Investigation of these ignition sequences in chemical composition space reveal distinct differences between the two. The primary ignition event in the main-chamber is followed by a large concentration of active radicals from the pre-chamber jet, accelerating the chain-branching steps, characterizing what has been referred to as flame ignition. In contrast, the secondary ignition occurs in the absence of active radicals in the pre-chamber jet, hence characterized as jet ignition. Further analysis of the effect of pre-chamber jet characteristics on lean ignition in the main-chamber is conducted by setting up cases with different initial pressure ratios (por) between the two chambers, a non-dimensional parameter, ranging from 1.2 to 3.2. As the initial pressure ratio increases, jet momentum increases, with dual ignition observed in cases above por= 2.2. Case with por= 3.2 lead to misfiring. The effect of ignition sequence on global combustion characteristics of TJI is analyzed. Dual ignition events lead to non-monotonicity in combustion characteristics such as global reaction progress variable, flame penetration, and global heat release rate. In dual ignition events, although the rate of fuel consumption and global heat release rate is initially lower, the secondary ignition leads to a sudden increase in flame surface area, resulting in a sudden jump and promoting the overall performance of the TJI system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct Measurement of Diffusion Coefficients: Evidence for Diffusive Stochastic Heating in Collisionless Plasmas

Open questions in collisionless plasma dissipation can be addressed using space-based observations in different astrophysical environments, with implications for both astrophysical and laboratory plasma systems. We study a low-𝛽, highly imbalanced, sub-Alfvénic stream observed by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) to identify and distinguish between signatures of stochastic heating (SH) and resonant heating (RH) by parallel ion cyclotron waves (∥-ICWs). Prior work studying this stream [Trevor A. Bowen et al., Stochastic heating in the sub-Alfvénic solar wind, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 255201 (2025)] showed that the SH rate, accounting for intermittency, matched the amplitude of the local energy transfer (LET) rate, while the RH rate did not. This comparison relied on a number of assumptions regarding the nature of the diffusive process and the calculation of the LET rate. We introduce a novel technique of inverting the proton guiding center equation to empirically measure velocity-space diffusion coefficients using three-dimensional proton velocity distribution functions, from the ion electrostatic analyzer (the Solar Probe Analyzer for Ions) on PSP. Measured diffusion coefficients are used to determine phase-space heating rates, leading to a calculation of a fully kinetic heating rate independent of assumptions made in prior work. We show that scale-dependent analytic expressions for SH via noncoherent fluctuations match the empirical measurements from PSP data, provided that we account for intermittency in the heating calculation. In contrast, the derived heating rates for SH that accounts for the effects of the helicity barrier and heating rates for RH via ∥-ICWs do not peak in the same region of velocity space as the empirical measurements, nor do they reach the required magnitude. Our approach provides novel methodology to uniquely identify and constrain heating processes in collisionless plasmas and shows evidence of a Fokker-Planck-like diffusive process in the near-Sun solar wind.

Plasma kinetic theory↗