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At least 595 records · Page 33

Order conditions for nonlinearly partitioned Runge-Kutta methods

Recently, a new class of nonlinearly partitioned Runge–Kutta (NPRK) methods was proposed for nonlinearly partitioned systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations y' = F(y, y). The target class of problems are those in which different scales, stiffnesses, or physics are coupled in a nonlinear way, wherein the desired partition cannot be written in a classical additive or component-wise fashion. Here we use a rooted-tree analysis to derive full-order conditions for NPRKM methods, where M denotes the number of nonlinear partitions. Due to the nonlinear coupling and thereby the mixed product differentials, it turns out that the standard node-colored rooted tree analysis used in analyzing ODE integrators does not naturally apply. Instead we develop a new edge-colored rooted-tree framework to address the nonlinear coupling. The resulting order conditions are enumerated, are provided directly for up to fourth order with M = 2 and third order with M = 3, and are related to existing order conditions of additive and partitioned RK methods. We conclude with an example that shows how the nonlinear order conditions can be used to obtain an embedded estimate of the state-dependent nonlinear coupling strength in a dynamical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Opportunities for Solar Industrial Process Heat in the United States

Energy used in the production and processing of materials and products represents a significant fraction of the overall energy footprint of the industrial sector. Solar technologies may provide suitable alternative to existing combustion technologies, but their relevance for industries in the United States has been largely unexplored at the necessary levels of spatial, temporal, and operational detail. To provide the first assessment of the technical opportunities for solar technologies to meet the demand for process heat in the United States, we first develop estimates of energy use by process temperature at the county and hourly resolutions for all manufacturing industries. We then estimate the opportunities for seven solar technology packages—comprised of solar thermal and photovoltaic-connected electrotechnologies—to meet process heat demand given solar resources and available land area by county.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Highly Integrated Wide Bandgap Power Module for Next Generation Plug-In Vehicles (Final Report)

Wide bandgap devices are key enablers for high power density traction inverters. A highly integrated wide bandgap (WBG) power module enables higher temperature operation, higher inverter efficiency and overall smaller die area with the same power delivery. However, it requires careful design of the power module to take advantage of all the superior material properties that silicon carbide (SiC) provides over conventional silicon (Si) Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) based design. This project developed an efficient and densely packed SiC power module for an automotive traction inverter application. Extensive study was performed to select the best performing SiC die considering a wide range of temperature variation, suitability to integrate into target packaging, robust body diode performance and overall high electrical efficiency. Multiple design ideas were explored to achieve lower stray inductance for both power loop and signal loop, uniform current distribution, compact form factor, and very high thermal performance. The final power module package includes all six inverter switches in the same module (six-pack) with die sintered at both bottom and top surfaces utilizing high performance substrate to achieve high electrical and thermal performance. Two power module variants were developed using 900 V and 1200 V devices for operating at two different high voltage levels (> 600 V HV battery). Both power modules were comprehensively characterized, and high efficiency operation of the inverter was confirmed through analysis. Finally, a complete functional inverter was built with the 1200V power modules using other essential components (HV capacitors, gate driver board, controller board, current sensor, connectors etc.) and tested using GM’s standard test procedure. There are several challenges associated with adopting WBG devices for high voltage operation. In order to assess and mitigate those challenges, GM and subrecipients of this project have conducted multiple detailed studies. This includes phase current reconstruction using integrated Rogowski coil, device junction temperature estimation using on-state gate resistance, modeling and testing the effect of high voltage and fast switching on motor insulation and bearings, partial discharge inception voltage measurement under different environmental conditions. Findings of all these studies are summarized in this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling of Bi-2212 strand and Rutherford cable in a dipole coil insert

The U.S. Magnet Development Program (US-MDP) explores high-field accelerator magnets compatible with op- erational conditions beyond the limits of Nb3Sn technology. The ongoing R&D High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) suggests using Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8−x (Bi-2212) as superconducting element. Bi-2212 Rutherford cables maintain a high critical current (IC ) when exposed to a large external magnetic field. However, Bi-2122 exhibits an oversensitive stress-strain response when subject to large Lorentz forces. This paper reports on the magnetic and mechanical analysis of the Bi-2212 cosine-theta insert being developed at Fermilab for a hybrid magnet composed of 2 external layers of Nb3Sn and 2 internal layers of Bi-2212. We performed a FEM analysis of the insert to estimate the HTS stress state in the coil s strands under magnetic and mechanical loads.

D'Agliano, A.↗

Development of National New Construction Weighting Factors for the Commercial Building Prototype Analyses (2008-2022)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with updating commercial building construction weights for the purpose of estimating national and state-by-state energy savings impacts of changes made to various commercial energy codes and standards. A similar activity was last completed by PNNL in 2020 using disaggregate construction volume data acquired from the Dodge Data & Analytics database (formerly McGraw Hill) for the years 2003-2018 (Lei et al, 2020). As time passes, changes in economic and social demand reshape construction volume trends. For the current update, PNNL reviewed the same data source with the latest construction data for the years 2008-2022. For commercial building analyses, PNNL typically uses a suite of 16 prototype buildings simulated in the 19 ASHRAE climate zones with 16 of them present in the United States. The 2008-2022 commercial building weighting factors were derived using the same approach employed to develop the 2003-2018 set (Lei et al, 2020). Applying the construction volume data from the database to the prototypes and climate zones resulted in the following new construction area-based weighting factors. Table ES.1 shows the weighting factors including all building categories found in the database, and Table ES.2 shows the weighting factors normalized to include only buildings represented by the 16 prototypes. Section 3.0 also includes national- and state-level weighting factors by area and building count.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

US Hydropower Potential at National Conduits

The US Hydropower Potential at National Conduits dataset provides the results of a national assessment of various conduit hydropower potential for the year 2022. Hydropower potential and generation estimates are provided for various types of municipal, agricultural, and industrial applications across all 50 states. A total of 1.41 gigawatts of hydropower potential is estimated across the US. This dataset provides conduit hydropower estimates summarized at state resolution in Shapefile (*.shp) format and at county resolution in comma separated (*.csv) and *.shp format.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties During the M-PACE Field Campaign

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly-continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This dataset provides a set of 25 samples from the M-PACE field campaign, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this dataset include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this dataset as well. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this dataset are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties Over the NSA Site

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This data set provides more than 1800 samples of cloud-base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this data set include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this data set. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this data set are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Randomized Compiling for the QITE Algorithm

The success of the current generation of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) hardware shows that quantum hardware may be able to tackle complex problems even without error correction. One outstanding issue is that of coherent errors arising from the increased complexity of these devices. These errors can accumulate through a circuit, making their impact on algorithms hard to predict and mitigate. Iterative algorithms like Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution are susceptible to these errors. This article presents the combination of both noise tailoring using Randomized Compiling and error mitigation with a purification. We also show that Cycle Benchmarking gives an estimate of the reliability of the purification. We apply this method to the Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution of a Transverse Field Ising Model and report an energy estimation and a ground state infidelity both below 1\%. Our methodology is general and can be used for other algorithms and platforms. We show how combining noise tailoring and error mitigation will push forward the performance of NISQ devices.

Ville, Jean-Loup↗

Thermomechanical Reliability Aspects of Automotive Power Electronics: Current Status and Future Trends

Common failure locations (e.g., wire bonds, solder interface) and mechanisms within traditional automotive power electronics package designs and reliability concerns associated with packaging at higher temperatures and higher heat fluxes will be discussed. Examples of packaging solutions that increase mechanical reliability will be presented and state-of-health (SOH) estimation using offline and online (in situ) techniques will be described.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Examining the Characteristics of the Cropland Data Layer in the Context of Estimating Land Cover Change

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) provides spatially explicit information about crop production area and has served as a prevalent data source for characterizing cropland change in the U.S. in the last decade. Understanding the accuracy of the CDL is paramount because of the reliance on it for management and policy making. This study examined the characteristics of the CDL from 2007 to 2017 using comparisons to other USDA datasets. The results showed when examining the cropland area for the same year, the CDL produced comparable trends with other datasets (R 2 > 0.95), but absolute area differed. The estimated area of cropland changes from 2007 to 2012, 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017 varied from weak to moderate correlation between the CDL and the tabular data (R 2 = 0.005~0.63). Differences in area of cropland change varied widely between data sources with the CDL estimating much larger change area. A series of image processing techniques designed to improve the confidence in cropland change estimated using the CDL reduced the area of estimated cropland change. The techniques also, unexpectedly, lowered the correlation in change estimated between the CDL and the tabular datasets. Estimated land cover change area varied widely based on analyses applied and could reverse from increasing to declining area in cropland. Further analyses showed unlikely change scenarios when comparing different year combinations. The authors recommend the CDL only be used for land cover change analysis if the error can be estimated and is within change estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring finite temperature properties of materials with quantum computers

Abstract Thermal properties of nanomaterials are crucial to not only improving our fundamental understanding of condensed matter systems, but also to developing novel materials for applications spanning research and industry. Since quantum effects arise at the nano-scale, these systems are difficult to simulate on classical computers. Quantum computers can efficiently simulate quantum many-body systems, yet current quantum algorithms for calculating thermal properties of these systems incur significant computational costs in that they either prepare the full thermal state on the quantum computer, or they must sample a number of pure states from a distribution that grows with system size. Canonical thermal pure quantum (TPQ) states provide a promising path to estimating thermal properties of quantum materials as they neither require preparation of the full thermal state nor require a growing number of samples with system size. Here, we present an algorithm for preparing canonical TPQ states on quantum computers. We compare three different circuit implementations for the algorithm and demonstrate their capabilities in estimating thermal properties of quantum materials. Due to its increasing accuracy with system size and flexibility in implementation, we anticipate that this method will enable finite temperature explorations of relevant quantum materials on near-term quantum computers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantum Davidson algorithm for excited states

Abstract Excited state properties play a pivotal role in various chemical and physical phenomena, such as charge separation and light emission. However, the primary focus of most existing quantum algorithms has been the ground state, as seen in quantum phase estimation and the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE). Although VQE-type methods have been extended to explore excited states, these methods grapple with optimization challenges. In contrast, the quantum Krylov subspace (QKS) method has been introduced to address both ground and excited states, positioning itself as a cost-effective alternative to quantum phase estimation. However, conventional QKS methodologies depend on a pre-generated subspace through real or imaginary-time evolutions. This subspace is inherently expansive and can be plagued with issues like slow convergence or numerical instabilities, often leading to relatively deep circuits. Our research presents an economic QKS algorithm, which we term the quantum Davidson (QDavidson) algorithm. This innovation hinges on the iterative expansion of the Krylov subspace and the incorporation of a pre-conditioner within the Davidson framework. By using the residues of eigenstates to expand the Krylov subspace, we manage to formulate a compact subspace that aligns closely with the exact solutions. This iterative subspace expansion paves the way for a more rapid convergence in comparison to other QKS techniques, such as the quantum Lanczos. Using quantum simulators, we employ the novel QDavidson algorithm to delve into the excited state properties of various systems, spanning from the Heisenberg spin model to real molecules. Compared to the existing QKS methods, the QDavidson algorithm not only converges swiftly but also demands a significantly shallower circuit. This efficiency establishes the QDavidson method as a pragmatic tool for elucidating both ground and excited state properties on quantum computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Shallow Geothermal Potential of the Snake River Plain

The Snake River Plain (SRP) terrestrial heat flow and subsurface thermal regime are not well understood but are important for assessing the local geothermal resource potential, both for conventional and for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) development in the region. Resource evaluation for the SRP is complicated by the disparate data density, along with the known lateral advection of heat in the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer and vertical heat transport by fluids in the bounding faults, primarily in the southwestern section. Fortunately, recent studies, e.g., the Snake River Plain Play Fairway Analysis, the Idaho FORGE site, and site-specific investigations, which included drilling within the Camas Prairie and on the Mountain Home Air Force Base, near Twin Falls, and in the Eastern Snake River Plain as part of the HOTSPOT Project, add both additional drilling and geophysical data. The SMU Geothermal Laboratory has conducted detailed studies of SRP tectonics and heat flow since the 1970's and used this knowledge as part of the EGS geothermal potential estimation for the conterminous United States in 2006 and again in 2011, calculating geothermal potential from 3.5 km to 10 km depth. Recent temperature modeling refined the calculation methodology to estimate shallow (1 km to 4 km) resource potential using an improved thermal conductivity model and incorporation of shallow groundwater flow. By incorporating the new SRP geology, geophysics, and 206 thermal data sites into the SMU thermal modeling methodology, this project updates the resource estimate for the SRP, and generates new temperature-at-depth maps for the shallow subsurface (1 km to 4 km). The project results highlight the EGS potential resource areas (=150°C) and areas with more exploration risks based on minimal and/or low-quality data. The newest temperature modeling results suggest EGS potential is near five times greater in the SRP than previously estimated.

EGS↗