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At least 595 records · Page 33

Positron Beam Loading and Acceleration in the Blowout Regime of a Plasma Wakefield Accelerator

Plasma wakefield acceleration in the nonlinear blowout regime has achieved marked milestones in electron beam acceleration, demonstrating high acceleration gradients and energy efficiency while preserving excellent beam quality. However, this regime is deemed unsuitable for achieving positron acceleration of comparable results, which is vital for future compact electron–positron colliders. In this article, we find that an intense positron beam loaded at the back of beam-driven blowout cavity can self-consistently induce the focusing field and flatten the longitudinal wakefield, leading to stable, high-efficiency, and high-quality positron acceleration. This is achieved through the formation of an on-axis electron filament induced by positron beam load, which shapes the plasma wakefield in a distinct way compared to electron beam load in the blowout regime. Via a nonlinear analytic model and numerical simulations, we explain the novel beam loading effects of the interaction between the on-axis filament and the blowout cavity. High-fidelity simulations show that a high-charge positron beam can be accelerated with >20% energy transfer efficiency, ~1% energy spread, and ~1 mm·mrad normalized emittance, while considerably depleting the energy of the drive beam. The concept can also be extended to simultaneous acceleration of electron and positron beams and high transformer ratio positron acceleration as well. This development offers a new route for the application of plasma wakefield acceleration into particle physics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Diffusional growth of cloud droplets in homogeneous isotropic turbulence: DNS, scaled-up DNS, and stochastic model

This paper presents a novel methodology to use direct numerical simulation (DNS) to study the impact of isotropic homogeneous turbulence on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. As shown by previous DNS studies, the impact of turbulence increases with the computational domain size, that is, with the Reynolds number, because larger eddies generate higher and longer-lasting supersaturation fluctuations that affect growth of individual cloud droplets. The traditional DNS can only simulate a limited range of scales because of the excessive computational cost that comes from resolving all scales involved, that is, from large scales at which the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is introduced down to the Kolmogorov microscale, and from following every single droplet. The novel approach is referred to as the “scaled-up DNS”. The scaling up is done in two parts, first by increasing both the computational domain and the Kolmogorov microscale and second by using super-droplets instead of real droplets. To ensure proper dissipation of TKE and scalar variance at small scales, molecular transport coefficients are appropriately scaled up with the grid length. For the scaled-up domains, say, meters and tens of meters, one needs to follow billions of real droplets. This is not computationally feasible, and so-called super-droplets are applied in scaled-up DNS simulations. Each super-droplet represents an ensemble of identical real droplets, and the number of real droplets represented by a super-droplet is referred to as the multiplicity attribute. After simple tests showing the validity of the methodology, scaled-up DNS simulations are conducted for five domains, the largest of 64 3 m 3 volume using a DNS of 256 3 grid points and various multiplicities. All simulations are carried out with vanishing mean vertical velocity and with no mean supersaturation, similarly to past DNS studies. As expected, the supersaturation fluctuations as well as the spread in droplet size distribution increase with the domain size, with the droplet radius variance increasing in time t as t 1∕2 as identified in previous DNS studies. Scaled-up simulations with different multiplicities document numerical convergence of the scaled-up solutions. Finally, we compare the scaled-up DNS results with a simple stochastic model that calculates supersaturation fluctuations based on the vertical velocity fluctuations updated using the Langevin equation. Overall, the results document similar scaling to previous small-domain DNS simulations and support the notion that the stochastic subgrid-scale model is a valuable tool for the multi-scale simulation of droplet spectral evolution applying a large-eddy simulation model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High–Resolution Global Warming Experiment

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Diurnal Radiative, Turbulent, and Biophysical Processes in the Amazonian Canopy‐Atmosphere Interface by Combining LES Simulations and Observations

Abstract We investigate the atmospheric diurnal variability inside and above the Amazonian rainforest for a representative day during the dry season. To this end, we combine high‐resolution large‐eddy simulations that are constrained and evaluated against a comprehensive observation set, including CO 2 concentrations, gathered during GoAmazon2014/15. We design systematic numerical experiments to quantify whether a multilayer approach in solving the explicit canopy improves our canopy‐atmosphere representation. We particularly focus on the relationship between photosynthesis and plant transpiration, and their distribution at leaf and canopy scales. We found the variability of photosynthesis drivers like vapor pressure deficit and leaf temperature to be about 3 times larger for sunlit leaves compared to shaded leaves. This leads to a large spread on leaf stomatal conductance values with minimum and maximum values varying more than 100%. Regarding the turbulent structure, we find wind‐driven stripe‐like shapes at the canopy top and structures resembling convective cells at the canopy. Wind‐related variables provide the best spatiotemporal agreement between model and observations. The potential temperature and heat flux profiles agree with an observed decoupling near the canopy top interface, although with less variability and cold biases of up to 3 K. The increasing complexity on the biophysical processes leads to the largest disagreements for evaporation, CO 2 plant assimilation and soil efflux. The model is able to capture the correct dependences and trends with the magnitudes still differing. We finally discuss the need to revise leaf and soil models and to complete the observations at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Mooring Field Experiment and Design of a Wave Energy Converter Platform Test System

Abstract This study evaluated a multi-catenary spread mooring system design of a mobile ocean test berth for wave energy converters (WECs), the Ocean Sentinel (OS) instrumentation buoy, through dynamic simulation, numerical analysis, and comparison with measured field motion data of the OS off the OR coast. First, the accuracy of the numerical employed model based on a fully-coupled method of the OS and its mooring lines was validated by comparing predicted mooring tensions to the field measurements. Then, the anchor movability, fatigue damage, and extreme mooring tension of the OS mooring system were analyzed to assess survivability. Field test results show that the numerical model provided accurate predictions of mooring tensions even under environmental conditions of strong wind, current, and waves. Factors affecting the accuracy are discussed. One mooring anchor was shown to have moved significantly during the ocean field test. Mooring fatigue damage was calculated for different levels of sea states. Design strengths of the mooring lines were calculated and analyzed.

Engineering↗

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recommended conventions for reporting results from direct dark matter searches

Abstract The field of dark matter detection is a highly visible and highly competitive one. In this paper, we propose recommendations for presenting dark matter direct detection results particularly suited for weak-scale dark matter searches, although we believe the spirit of the recommendations can apply more broadly to searches for other dark matter candidates, such as very light dark matter or axions. To translate experimental data into a final published result, direct detection collaborations must make a series of choices in their analysis, ranging from how to model astrophysical parameters to how to make statistical inferences based on observed data. While many collaborations follow a standard set of recommendations in some areas, for example the expected flux of dark matter particles (to a large degree based on a paper from Lewin and Smith in 1995), in other areas, particularly in statistical inference, they have taken different approaches, often from result to result by the same collaboration. We set out a number of recommendations on how to apply the now commonly used Profile Likelihood Ratio method to direct detection data. In addition, updated recommendations for the Standard Halo Model astrophysical parameters and relevant neutrino fluxes are provided. The authors of this note include members of the DAMIC, DarkSide, DARWIN, DEAP, LZ, NEWS-G, PandaX, PICO, SBC, SENSEI, SuperCDMS, and XENON collaborations, and these collaborations provided input to the recommendations laid out here. Wide-spread adoption of these recommendations will make it easier to compare and combine future dark matter results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Incorporating the Acclimation of Photosynthesis and Leaf Respiration in the Noah‐MP Land Surface Model: Model Development and Evaluation

Abstract Realistic simulation of leaf photosynthetic and respiratory processes is needed for accurate prediction of the global carbon cycle. These two processes systematically acclimate to long‐term environmental changes by adjusting photosynthetic and respiratory traits (e.g., the maximum photosynthetic capacity at 25°C ( V cmax,25 ) and the leaf respiration rate at 25°C ( R 25 )) following increasingly well‐understood principles. While some land surface models (LSMs) now account for thermal acclimation, they do so by assigning empirical parameterizations for individual plant functional types (PFTs). Here, we have implemented an Eco‐Evolutionary Optimality (EEO)‐based scheme to represent the universal acclimation of photosynthesis and leaf respiration to multiple environmental effects, and that therefore requires no PFT‐specific parameterizations, in a standard version of the widely used LSM, Noah MP. We evaluated model performance with plant trait data from a 5‐year experiment and extensive global field measurements, and carbon flux measurements from FLUXNET2015. We show that observed R 25 and V cmax,25 vary substantially both temporally and spatially within the same PFT ( C.V. >20%). Our EEO‐based scheme captures 62% of the temporal and 70% of the spatial variations in V cmax,25 (73% and 54% of the variations in R 25 ). The standard scheme underestimates gross primary production by 10% versus 2% for the EEO‐based scheme and generates a larger spread in r (correlation coefficient) across flux sites (0.79 ± 0.16 vs. 0.84 ± 0.1, mean ± S.D.). The standard scheme greatly overestimates canopy respiration (bias: ∼200% vs. 8% for the EEO scheme), resulting in less CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach thus simulates climate‐carbon coupling more realistically, with fewer parameters.

Ren, Yanghang [Department of Earth System Science ↗

Transients following the loss of detonation confinement

We present a theory for the evolution of a one-dimensional, steady-state detonation reaction zone to a two-dimensional reaction zone, when the explosive experiences a sudden loss of side-on confinement as a boundary of the explosive is impulsively withdrawn. Our focus is on condensed-phase explosives, which we describe as having a constant adiabatic gamma equation of state and an irreversible, state-independent reaction rate. We consider two detonation models: (i) the instantaneous reaction heat release Chapman–Jouguet (CJ)-limit and (ii) the spatially resolved reaction heat-release Zel’dovich–von Neumann–Döring (ZND) model, in the limit where only a small fraction of the energy release is resolved (the SRHR-limit). Two competing rarefaction waves are generated by this loss of confinement: (i) a smooth wave coming off the full length of the withdrawn boundary and (ii) a singular fan spreading out from the point where the detonation shock and the withdrawn boundary meet. For the CJ-limit, in all cases the singular rarefaction fan eventually dominates the competition to control the steady-state behaviour. For the SRHR-limit, the spatially resolved heat release moderates this competition. When the withdrawal speed is fast, the rarefaction fan dominates; when the withdrawal speed is slower, the smooth rarefaction eventually dominates, although the flow features a fan at early times. By examining the mathematical properties of the steady two-dimensional fan-based solution, we set down a mechanism for this transition in behaviours.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

PSF Estimation in Crowded Astronomical Imagery as a Convolutional Dictionary Learning Problem

In this paper, we present a new algorithm for estimating the Point Spread Function (PSF) in wide-field astronomical images with extreme source crowding. Robust and accurate PSF estimation in crowded astronomical images dramatically improves the fidelity of astrometric and photometric measurements extracted from wide-field sky monitoring imagery. Our radically new approach utilizes convolutional sparse representations to model the continuous functions involved in the image formation. This approach avoids the need to detect and precisely localize individual point sources that is shared by existing methods. In experiments involving simulated astronomical imagery, it significantly outperforms the recent alternative method with which it is compared.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An investigation of non-canonical mixing in red giant stars using APOGEE 12 C/ 13 C ratios observed in open cluster stars

Standard stellar evolution theory poorly predicts the surface abundances of chemical species in low-mass, red giant branch (RGB) stars. Observations show an enhancement of p–p chain and CNO cycle products in red giant envelopes, which suggests the existence of non-canonical mixing that brings interior burning products to the surface of these stars. The 12 C/ 13 C ratio is a highly sensitive abundance metric used to probe this mixing. We investigate extra RGB mixing by examining: (1) how 12 C/ 13 C is altered along the RGB, and (2) how 12 C/ 13 C changes for stars of varying age and mass. Our sample consists of 43 red giants, spread over 15 open clusters from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey’s APOGEE DR17, that have reliable 12 C/ 13 C ratios derived from their APOGEE spectra. We vetted these 12 C/ 13 C ratios and compared them as a function of evolution and age/mass to the standard mixing model of stellar evolution, and to a model that includes prescriptions for RGB thermohaline mixing and stellar rotation. We find that the observations deviate from standard mixing models, implying the need for extra mixing. Additionally, some of the abundance patterns depart from the thermohaline model, and it is unclear whether these differences are due to incomplete observations, issues inherent to the model, our assumption of the cause of extra mixing, or any combination of these factors. Nevertheless, the surface abundances across our age/mass range clearly deviate from the standard model, agreeing with the notion of a universal mechanism for RGB extra mixing in low-mass stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calculating n-point charge correlations in evolving systems

Background: In dynamic systems such as heavy-ion collisions, charge susceptibilities and local charge correlations change with time. These changes are accompanied by nonlocal correlations, which spread diffusively with time and are constrained by local charge conservation. Such correlations have been measured at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider (RHIC) and have been linked to the chemical evolution of the matter and possible phase separation or critical phenomena. The evolution of such correlations has been modeled for two-point correlators superimposed onto hydrodynamics, but not for three- or four-point correlators. These higher-order correlators represent an essential basis for calculating the kurtosis and skewness of charge distributions measured at RHIC. For short-range correlations, such as those between charges on the same particle, and the associated charge-balance correlations a theoretical formalism was lacking for handling higher-order correlations. In particular, one needed to understand how higher-order charge fluctuations was split onto lower numbers of particles. For example, correlations of order three have contributions with charge all on one particle, split onto two particle, or split onto three. By assuming local chemical equilibrium of short-range correlations, the sources of the various correlators were found to be uniquely determined. The relevant theoretical foundation is presented here, including a diagrammatic technique to correctly account for all the possible terms to higher-order correlations. Here, we found a consistent theoretical treatment and its applicability, viability, and tractability are discussed. The formalism derived here enables realistic and quantitative modeling of the three- and four-point charge correlations necessary for understanding measurements of the kurtosis and skewness of charge distributions at RHIC. These observables have been promoted as signals of phase transitions or measures of chemical evolution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Rapid Spaceborne Mapping of Wildfire Retardant Drops for Active Wildfire Management

Aerial application of fire retardant is a critical tool for managing wildland fire spread. Retardant applications are carefully planned to maximize fire line effectiveness, improve firefighter safety, protect high-value resources and assets, and limit environmental impact. However, topography, wind, visibility, and aircraft orientation can lead to differences between planned drop locations and the actual placement of the retardant. Information on the precise placement and areal extent of the dropped retardant can provide wildland fire managers with key information to (1) adaptively manage event resources, (2) assess the effectiveness of retardant slowing or stopping fire spread, (3) document location in relation to ecologically sensitive areas; and perform or validate cost-accounting for drop services. This study uses Sentinel-2 satellite data and commonly used machine learning classifiers to test an automated approach for detecting and mapping retardant application. We show that a multiclass model (retardant, burned, unburned, and cloud artifact classes) outperforms a single-class retardant model and that image differencing (post-application minus pre-application) outperforms single-image models. Compared to the random forest and support vector machine, the gradient boosting model performed the best with an overall accuracy of 0.88 and an F1 Score of 0.76 for fire retardant, though results were comparable for all three models. Our approach maps the full areal extent of the dropped retardant within minutes of image availability, rather than linear representations currently mapped by aerial GPS surveys. The development of this capability allows for the rapid assessment of retardant effectiveness and documentation of placement in relation to sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting a Drag Partition Model For Canopy-Like Roughness Elements

Turbulent flows over a large surface area (S) covered by n obstacles experience an overall drag due to the presence of the ground and the protruding obstacles into the flow. The drag partition between the roughness obstacles and the ground is analyzed using an analytical model proposed by Raupach (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 60:375-395, 1992) and is hereafter referred to as R92. The R92 is based on the premise that the wake behind an isolated roughness element can be described by a shelter area A and a shelter volume V. The individual sizes of A and V without any interference from other obstacles can be determined from scaling analysis for the spread of wakes. To upscale from an individual roughness element to n/S elements where wakes may interact, R92 adopted a background stress re-normalizing instead of reducing A or V with each element addition. This work demonstrates that R92’s approach results in a linear background stress reduction in A and V only when the ratio of n/S is small, due to a low probability of wake interactions. This probabilistic nature suggests that up-scaling from individual to multiple roughness elements can be re-formulated using stochastic averaging methods proposed here. The two approaches are shown to recover R92 under plausible conditions. An alternative scaling for the shelter volume is also proposed here using thermodynamic arguments of work and dissipation though the final outcome remains similar to R92. Comparisons between R92 and available data spanning more than two decades after R92 on blocks and vegetation-like roughness elements confirm the practical utility of R92. The agreement between R92 and this updated databases of experiments and simulations confirm the potential use of R92 in large-scale models provided that the relevant parameters accommodate certain features of the roughness element type (cube versus vegetation-like) and, to a lesser extent, their configuration throughout S. Last, a comparison between R92 and models based on first-order closure principles with constant mixing length suggests that R92 can outperform such models when evaluated across a wide range of roughness densities.

canopy turbulence↗

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗