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At least 595 records · Page 33

Revisiting the Terawatt Challenge

Richard E. Smalley, in 2003, defined the Terawatt (TW) Challenge as “Adapting our energy infrastructure to simultaneously address diminishing oil resources and rising levels of atmospheric CO 2 .” Smalley, best known for the discovery of C 60 , for which he received the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, continued to address the challenges of anthropomorphic and natural global energy flows until he passed away in 2005. Smalley challenged the world to transform the energy sector. He envisioned electricity transmitted by high-voltage direct current (DC) lines from massively deployed solar plants in sunny areas and remotely sited nuclear plants. He also envisioned using advanced batteries for local storage of energy. To meet the needs of ~10 people in a world with a dwindling oil supply, Smalley asserted that the world would need to transform its fossil-fuel-driven 14-TW (average power) energy used in 2003 to a largely renewable-energy-driven 30–60 TW (average power) in 2050. This would be possible only if solar-electricity costs could be drastically reduced. The challenges associated with this transition have been called the “Terawatt Challenge.” Fifteen years later, solar-module costs have been reduced by tenfold and annual deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules has grown by a factor of 100,from ~1 gigawatt (GW) in 2004 to ~100 GW in 2018, with a total of 500 GW installed worldwide, producing 2% of the planet’s electricity. As global installed solar generating capacity approaches1 TW, we revisit Smalley’s TW challenge to identify what has changed and quantify the TW Challenge for a baseline scenario and for two scenarios designed as upper and lower bounds determined by the degree we implement electrification and storage. In this paper, we show that the energy choices we make today will dramatically affect the magnitude of future global energy requirements.

SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Industry Update: (H2 2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Industry Update (Fall 2022) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Industry Update (Winter 2023) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

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Winter 2024 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

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An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spring 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Summer 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, NREL conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fall 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Laboratory of the Rockies conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Winter 2026 Solar and Storage Industry Update

Each quarter, the Nationa Laboratory of the Rockies conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar and Battery Storage Permitting and Siting Requirements - Solar Prize Round 7 (CRADA Final Report)

The purpose of this project is to identify local zoning ordinances, state permitting requirements, federal regulatory bottlenecks throughout the development process, and the potential to use Large Language Models (LLM) and aggregate permitting and interconnection data for commercial and industrial (C&I), community, and utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

AI-Driven Smart Community Control for Accelerating PV Adoption and Enhancing Grid Resilience

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has launched a Connected Communities program that supports projects that expand DOE's network of grid-interactive, efficient building communities nationwide. As an early pilot of Connected Communities, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners have developed and demonstrated a community-scale, hierarchical control solution to address the potential grid issues arising from high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as to improve grid reliability and resilience in this residential community. A field pilot study has been performed at an affordable housing development called the Basalt Vista Community, which was built for school teachers and other professionals in the local workforce and represents an autonomous energy grid with all-electric, energy-efficient homes. With no natural gas line in the community, this is the first all-electric net-zero community in rural Colorado. In the field pilot study, NREL has validated the performance of the hierarchical control solution, which consists of NREL's foresee home energy management systems (HEMS) and community aggregators, in increasing demand flexibility and self-consuming PV, reducing potential over-voltages, and supporting critical loads during emergency events. In this presentation, we will present the methodology, simulation and field pilot results, and lessons learned from the project.

all-electric community↗

Rooftop solar incentives remain effective for low- and moderate-income adoption

Financial incentives for rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption have declined in the United States over time by policy design. Incentive phase-down can efficiently promote early adoption and avoid ineffective payments to late adopters. Furthermore, incentive phase-down may exclude low- and moderate-income (LMI) households from realizing the same financial benefits from PV adoption as high-income early adopters. Here, data from two state-level LMI PV incentive programs are analyzed to test whether incentives still drive PV adoption among LMI households. As a first order approximation, the analysis suggests that incentives drove adoption that would not otherwise have happened in about 80% of cases. To the extent that policymakers prioritize PV adoption equity as part of the emerging energy justice policy agenda, the results suggest that ongoing incentive support for LMI adoption may be merited.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Historical and Future Learning for the New Era of Multi-Terawatt Photovoltaics

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is entering a new era of multi-terawatt deployment, with 2 TW already in service and more than 75 TW predicted in many scenarios by 2050. This next era has been enabled by over five decades of cumulative advances in PV module cost reduction, performance and reliability. The current scale of deployment also introduces new needs, opportunities and challenges. In this Perspective we frame a path forwards based on learning, broadly defined as a combination of expansion of knowledge and advances through research and development, experience and collaboration. We discuss historical topics where learning has driven PV deployment until now, and emerging areas that are required to sustain high levels of future deployment. We expect progress to continue in terms of module price, performance and reliability, driven by advances in PV cell and module design, the emergence of tandem devices and increased focus on extending module lifetimes. Large-scale deployment also means large-scale sustainability and responsibility. We therefore posit that additional metrics, such as the impact on global CO2 emissions, resource consumption and design for reuse and recycling, will become increasingly important to the PV industry and provide opportunities for further learning.

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Quantifying and Valuing Fundamental Characteristics and Benefits of Floating PV Systems

This project undertook the first systematic and comprehensive collection of Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) related techno-ecological data across diverse geographic regions of the United States. It examined FPV performance, assessed potential environmental risks and benefits, and provided data to support the development of research protocols for better understanding the impacts of FPV. As part of this process, we conducted a detailed study of four existing FPV sites and three land-based PV (LPV) sites in Florida and California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗