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DOE OSTI2020

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Impact of Vertical and Seasonal Variation in Leaf Traits on Simulating Soybean Canopy Photosynthesis via 1D and 3D Modeling

Accurate modeling of photosynthesis is crucial for predicting crop productivity and quantifying the carbon cycle in agroecosystems. Leaf traits are essential inputs for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Yet, many existing models still use fixed plant functional type (PTF)-based values to parameterize leaf traits under a big-leaf or two-big-leaf assumption, neglecting their vertical profiles and seasonal changes. This simplification may introduce significant uncertainties in estimating gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study, we simulated soybean GPP and tested the effects of vertical and seasonal variation in three key leaf photosynthetic traits: the maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax25), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and leaf mass per area (LMA) in the 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios models. Weekly field measurements were conducted during the growing season of 2024 to support the simulation. We designed ten leaf trait parameterization schemes by incorporating different combinations of vertical profiles and seasonal changes, while assuming homogeneous canopy architecture in both models. Our results revealed that Vcmax25 vertical and seasonal variation had the strongest influence on simulated GPP in both 1D and 3D models, while LCC and LMA effects were minimal. Particularly, the scheme with an empirically parameterized Vcmax25 profile achieved comparable performance to the scheme with the measured Vcmax25 profile. Both 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios accurately modeled GPP (SCOPE: R2 = 0.87, Bias = 0.55 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹; Helios: R2 = 0.9, Bias = 0.22 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹) under the most complex scheme, and their responses to vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits were consistent, demonstrating the robustness of our findings. Based on our findings, we propose a scalable framework for parameterizing leaf traits to improve GPP simulations. This study contributes to improving the representation of leaf trait dynamics in canopy-level photosynthesis models, potentially enhancing our ability to predict crop productivity and understand agroecosystem carbon dynamics.

Photosynthesis↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Ocean Coupling on Simulated and Projected Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Simulations

This study aims to quantify the impacts of atmosphere–ocean coupling on simulated and projected tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation globally. We used global climate model (GCM) simulations over 1950–2050 from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) and compared its fully coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) with atmosphere-only GCMs (AGCMs). We find that ocean coupling generally leads to decreased TC precipitation over ocean and land. Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) biases are critical drivers of the precipitation difference, with secondary contributions from local TC–ocean feedbacks via SST cold wakes. The two driving factors, attributed to ocean coupling in the AOGCMs, influence TC precipitation in association with decreased TC intensity and specific humidity. The AOGCMs and AGCMs consistently project TC precipitation increases in 2015–2050 relative to 1950–2014 over ocean for all basins, and for landfalling TCs in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

E3SMv2 simulation output from sensitivity study on cloud formation

This dataset contains E3SMv2 simulation output files discussed in the manuscript approved for IR in PNNL-SA-206024. The dataset was used to examine the occurrences of ultra-low cloud droplet number concentrations in E3SMv2. Submitting the manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal will require making the model output publicly available. We plan to use DataHub for that.

Wan, Hui [PNNL] (ORCID:0000000152944116)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multimode turbulent flow measurements using magnetic resonance imaging- and laser-based techniques and computational fluid dynamics simulations

We studied the flow field characteristics of a turbulent flow over a regularized cube array with a perpendicular injection flow through the floor between the second and third cubical elements, representing the complex flow interactions of a 3D jet and the wake flows behind cubical obstacles. Four different experimental measurements were performed: two magnetic resonance imaging-based measurements for three-dimensional three-component velocity (MRV) and concentration (MRC) and two laser-based techniques, particle image velocimetry (PIV) and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), for two-dimensional two-component velocity and concentration measurement, respectively. The mainstream Reynolds number is Re = 15 000⁠, based on the primary inlet velocity U m and channel height D H ⁠, whereas the injector Reynolds number is Re j = 3400⁠, based on the injector velocity U j and the injector's exit width D j ⁠. Numerical simulations were performed for the studied flow configuration of turbulent flow over a regularized cube array using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) and large-eddy simulation (LES) approaches. Results obtained from experimental measurements—including MRV, MRC, PIV, and PLIF—as well as RANS and LES simulations are discussed and compared along several horizontal and vertical planes of the studied configuration. In addition, 3D turbulent flow structures, such as leading-edge vortex, horseshoe vortex, and jet shear-layer vortex, and the isosurfaces of scalar concentration successfully revealed by MRV and MRC techniques were found to be in very good agreement with those 3D features extracted from RANS and LES simulations. In conclusion, the high-resolution experimental and numerical database obtained from this study could be useful for validation and verification of numerical codes.

Computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2022

In situ feature analysis for large-scale multiphase flow simulations

The study of multiphase flow is essential for designing chemical reactors such as fluidized bed reactors (FBR), as a detailed understanding of hydrodynamics is critical for optimizing reactor performance and stability. An FBR allows scientists to conduct different types of chemical reactions involving multiphase materials, especially interaction between gas and solids. During such complex chemical processes, the formation of void regions in the reactor, generally termed as bubbles, is an important phenomenon. The study of these bubbles has a deep implication in predicting the reactor’s overall efficiency. But physical experiments needed to understand bubble dynamics are costly and non-trivial due to the technical difficulties involved and harsh working conditions of the reactors. Therefore, to study such chemical processes and bubble dynamics, a state-of-the-art computational simulation MFIX-Exa is being developed. Despite the proven accuracy of MFIX-Exa in modeling bubbling phenomena, the large-scale output data prohibits the use of traditional post hoc analysis capabilities in both storage and I/O time. Herein, to address these issues and allow the application scientists to explore the bubble dynamics in an efficient and timely manner, we have developed an end-to-end analytics pipeline that enables in situ detection of bubbles, followed by a flexible post hoc visual exploration methodology of bubble dynamics. The proposed method enables interactive analysis of bubbles, along with quantification of several bubble characteristics, enabling experts to understand the bubble interactions in detail. Positive feedback from the experts has indicated the efficacy of the proposed approach for exploring bubble dynamics in very-large-scale multiphase flow simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Experimental Investigation of Students? Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator

This study focuses on investigating students' learning effects and performance trends over a certain period using the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Specifically, it aims to determine the training required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) using Rancor Microworld and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators. A longitudinal experiment is conducted with sixteen undergraduate students, using four Rancor Microworld scenarios in each of the four experiment trials. The study considers four human performance measurements workload, situation awareness, time, and error. Finally, the trend of students' performance is compared with operator data collected from the previous experiment. Overall, this research complements previous studies by providing insights into how much training is required to collect HRA data from non-experts and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part II: Simulations

Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radius R 0 threshold quickly decay and those above the R 0 threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environment V CR determines cloud radius R , is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative to V CR beyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, and V CR therefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role of V CR in determining R is validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gyrokinetic analysis of inter-edge localized mode transport mechanisms in a DIII-D pedestal

In this study, gyrokinetic simulations are used to study pedestal fluctuations for DIII-D discharge 174082 using the GENE code. Nonlinear local simulations indicate that electron heat flux has contributions from electron temperature gradient-driven transport but at levels insufficient to satisfy power balance. We show that microtearing modes (MTM) and neoclassical transport are likely to account for the remaining observed energy losses in the electron and ion channels, respectively. The MTM instabilities found in the simulations are consistent with the high-frequency fluctuations identified in the magnetic fluctuation data from Mirnov coils. The fluctuation data in this discharge also exhibit a low-frequency band of fluctuations. By modifying the equilibrium profiles and plasma β, simulations produce MHD modes, which may be responsible for these observed low-frequency fluctuations. We compare several metrics involving ratios of fluctuation amplitudes and transport quantities for both MTMs and MHD modes. This analysis suggests that the available data are consistent with the simultaneous activity of both MHD modes and MTMs provided that the former is limited largely to the particle transport channel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of RMI Ejecta Sourcing from Reconstructed Interfaces in 2D FLAG Flyer-Plate Simulations

This study investigates the performance of RMI ejecta sourcing from a reconstructed interface in two-dimensional FLAG ejecta flyer-plate simulations. Enabling the RMI ejecta model to operate on reconstructed interfaces has been a longstanding challenge in FLAG, limiting its applicability to experiments in which interface reconstruction is not required. Addressing this limitation is therefore an important step toward expanding the model’s predictive capability. The first phase of this effort focused on identifying a flyer-plate/target configuration that produces large ejecta clouds from two distinct shocks using the standard RMI ejecta model. A series of simulations examined the effects of flyer composition, layer thickness, and mesh resolution on shock structure and ejecta formation. VISAR traces were used to evaluate shock timing and identify configurations that produced a clear double-shock response. A copper middle-layer flyer with a doubled tin layer yielded the most favorable shock characteristics and was selected as the baseline configuration. After confirming this configuration performed as expected when running a reference FLAG version, it became the basis for three simulations: (1) a standard two-dimensional ejecta flyer-plate calculation using a reference FLAG version, (2) the same calculation with the reconstructed interface option enabled, and (3) a calculation employing ALE strategies to force the ejecta model to operate on the reconstructed interface. While the baseline simulation produced the expected ejecta response, the reconstructed interface approach did not result in measurable ejecta, indicating that this capability remains under development. These results highlight both the progress made and the remaining challenges in extending the RMI ejecta model to reconstructed interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data transfers for full core heterogeneous reactor high- fidelity multiphysics studies

Multiphysics simulations for nuclear reactor analysis are usually performed by resorting to operator splitting and fixed point iterations between single-physics solvers. This enables the separate solution of each physics, such as neutronics, fuel performance, and thermal hydraulics, on meshes tailored to the requirements of the respective numerical discretizations of the equations. As the equations are coupled, several fields must be transferred between single-physics solves. Projecting fields between meshes while preserving order of accuracy, conservation properties, and mapping non-overlapping geometries is a complex endeavor. This conference paper will present the transfers as implemented in MOOSE, which can handle arbitrary meshes, arbitrary mappings, conservation of integral quantities, and are made to scale with distributed simulations on both ends of the transfers. Their adequacy for advanced nuclear reactor multiphysics coupling is shown through examples and numerical studies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase equilibrium of liquid water and hexagonal ice from enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations

We study the phase equilibrium between liquid water and ice Ih modeled by the TIP4P/Ice interatomic potential using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations. Our approach is based on the calculation of ice Ih-liquid free energy differences from simulations that visit reversibly both phases. The reversible interconversion is achieved by introducing a static bias potential as a function of an order parameter. The order parameter was tailored to crystallize the hexagonal diamond structure of oxygen in ice Ih. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of the system size on the ice Ih-liquid free energy differences, and we obtain a melting temperature of 270 K in the thermodynamic limit. This result is in agreement with estimates from thermodynamic integration (272 K) and coexistence simulations (270 K). Since the order parameter does not include information about the coordinates of the protons, the spontaneously formed solid configurations contain proton disorder as expected for ice Ih.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Cloud Properties at Scott Base: Comparing Ceilometer Observations With ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 Reanalyses Using an Instrument Simulator

This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure-dependent clustering-to-declustering solute segregation transitions near disconnections

Grain-boundary disconnections, characterized by a step and a dislocation, are pervasive interfacial line defects that play a critical role in governing the properties and performance of nanocrystalline alloys. Although segregation of alloying elements is frequently observed at GB disconnections, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, particularly at elevated temperatures and non-dilute conditions. In this study, we employ atomistic simulations to study the segregation behavior of Ag at various faulted disconnections in Cu as a model material system. Our results demonstrate a pronounced size and compactness effect on the segregation behavior: more compact faulted disconnection structures promote the formation of Ag segregation clusters due to a highly localized tensile field, whereas more spread faulted disconnection structures (i.e., with wider partial dislocation spacing) exhibit much weaker clustering tendencies. Furthermore, with increasing temperature, Ag clustering in small disconnections initially intensifies and then disappears, indicating a thermally driven transition from clustering to declustering segregation behavior.

Disconnections↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Roles of non-axisymmetric perturbations in free drift vertical displacement events on EAST

Abstract The safe operation of most tokamaks, especially the large ones, relies on the feedback control of vertical displacement events (VDEs). However, most of these feedback control systems are based on axisymmetric VDE models. In this study, we use NIMROD simulations to study the role of non-axisymmetric perturbations in free drift vertical displacement events on EAST. The high- n modes in the non-axisymmetric VDE grow first, which drives the formation of high- n magnetic island chains. Subsequently, the magnetic island chains grow and overlap with each other, leading to the destruction of the magnetic flux surface, which induces a minor disruption and accelerates the start of the following major disruption. The magnetic island and the stochastic magnetic field allow the toroidally non-axisymmetric poloidal plasma current to jet towards the hoop force direction, forming finger-like and filamentary structures. Such a plasma current non-axisymmetry strongly depends on the anisotropy in the thermal transport coefficients.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Si–Cl 2 –Ar + Atomic Layer Etching Window: A Fundamental Study Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations and a Reduced Order Model

Silicon (Si) atomic layer etching (ALE) by alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ) is studied by using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and a reduced order model (ROM). Here, the purpose of this study is to elucidate the properties of the ALE window, a range of ion energies where the amount of Si etched over a series of cycles is nonzero and nearly independent of ion energy. Experimental studies of the Si–Cl 2 –Ar + ALE system report contradictory results related to the ALE window’s ion energy range. Both MD simulations and the ROM show that there is an ALE window present from approximately 15 to 20 eV for normal incidence argon ions. The Si–Cl 2 –Ar + system, therefore, exhibits a narrow ALE window. The amount of Si etched per cycle is less than one atomic layer because of the higher etch yield of Cl atoms relative to atomic Si and silicon chlorides. A modified version of the ROM with an artificially increased Si physical sputtering threshold energy expands the ALE window, illustrating the importance of the difference in chemical and physical sputtering threshold energies in the ALE window energy range. The ROM is also used to examine the dependence of the EPC on the Ar + ion fluence.

energy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influences of the South American Low-Level Jet on the Convective Environment in Central Argentina Using a Convection-Permitting Simulation

This study documents the spatial and temporal distribution of the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) and quantifies its impact on the convective environment using a 6.5-month convection-permitting simulation during the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) campaigns. Overall, the simulation reproduces the observed SALLJ characteristics in central Argentina near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), a focal point for terrain-focused upscale growth. SALLJs most frequently occur in the summer with maxima to the northwest and east of the SDC and minima over the higher terrain. The shallower SALLJs (<1750 m) have a strong overnight skew, while the elevated jets are more equally spread throughout the day. SALLJ periods often have higher amounts of low-level moisture and instability compared to non-SALLJ periods, with these impacts increasing over time when the SALLJ is present and decreasing afterward. The SALLJ may enhance low-level wind shear magnitudes (particularly when accounting for the jet height); however, enhancement is somewhat limited due to the presence of speed shear in most situations. SALLJ periods are associated with low-level directional shear favorable for organized convection and an orientation of cloud-layer wind shear parallel to the terrain, which could favor upscale growth. A case study is shown in which the SALLJ influenced both the magnitude and direction of wind shear concurrent with convective upscale growth near the SDC. This study highlights the complex relationship between the SALLJ and its impacts during periods of widespread convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗