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DOE OSTI2015

Electric Vehicles and the Electric Grid

In response to the need for the decarbonization of the transport sector and to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels, it is expected that large fleets of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will constitute an important share of the electricity demand in the not so distant future. These devices can, and would behave as any regular demand if they are allowed to charge as soon as they are connected to the electric grid. If such charging process is allowed, then several adverse impacts on the power grids such as increased system-wide peak demand, and early reinforcements of the distribution, transmission and/or generation systems would be required. However, as opposed to conventional demands, these new devices are equipped with a battery that enables them deferring their needs for electric energy in time. If the pliant nature of this demand is exploited in such a way that the charging of these devices takes place when it is more convenient for the power system, then not only would the adverse impacts to the system would be avoided, but also, a new stream of services could be offered to the electric power grid in the form of demand response, power injections in V2G and regulating reserves. This article discusses the consequences of integrating significant volumes of PEVs into power systems, in both, uncontrolled and controlled manners.

Ortega Vazquez, Miguel A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2011

Technology Applications that Support Space Exploration

Several enabling technologies have been identified that would provide significant benefits for future space exploration. In-Space demonstrations should be chosen so that these technologies will have a timely opportunity to improve efficiencies and reduce risks for future spaceflight. An early window exists to conduct ground and flight demonstrations that make use of existing assets that were developed for the Space Shuttle and the Constellation programs. The work could be mostly performed using residual program civil servants, existing facilities and current commercial launch capabilities. Partnering these abilities with the emerging commercial sector, along with other government agencies, academia and with international partners would provide an affordable and timely approach to get the launch costs down for these payloads, while increasing the derived benefits to a larger community. There is a wide scope of varied technologies that are being considered to help future space exploration. However, the cost and schedule would be prohibitive to demonstrate all these in the near term. Determining which technologies would yield the best return in meeting our future space needs is critical to building an achievable Space Architecture that allows exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The best mix of technologies is clearly to be based on our future needs, but also must take into account the availability of existing assets and supporting partners. Selecting those technologies that have complimentary applications will provide the most knowledge, with reasonable cost, for future use The plan is to develop those applications that not only mature the technology but actually perform a useful task or mission. These might include such functions as satellite servicing, a propulsion stage, processing lunar regolith, generating and transmitting solar power, cryogenic fluid transfer and storage and artificial gravity. Applications have been selected for assessment for future consideration and are addressed in this paper. These applications have been made available to the various NASA study groups that are determining the next steps the Agency must take to secure a sound foundation for future space exploration The paper also addresses how follow-on demonstrations, as launch performance grows, can build on the earlier applications to provide increased benefits for both the commercial and scientific communities. The architecture of incrementally building upon previous successes and insights dramatically lowers the overall associated risk for developing and maturing the key enabling technologies. The goal is to establish a potential business case that encourages commercial activity, thereby reducing the cost for the demonstration while using the technology maturation in developing readiness for future space exploration with overall less risk.

Henderson, Edward M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scientific frontiers of agrivoltaic cropping systems

Agrivoltaic (AV) systems integrate agriculture with electricity conversion through photovoltaic (PV) modules. Compared with conventional ground-mounted PV systems, AV systems can reduce land-use competition and offer agronomic and economic advantages, such as more stable crop production and additional farm income. However, AV systems can decrease agricultural performance and are typically 20-90% costlier to install than conventional PV systems. Here, in this Review, we analyse the implementation of AV cropping systems to preserve agricultural activities and highlight challenges and barriers. The global electricity potential of AV systems is ~66-385 PWh annually, depending on PV technology and installation density, if deployed in the most suitable areas, without accounting for grid availability. Scaling up has been hindered by crop selection for shading conditions, decreased energy conversion per unit of land area and issues with social acceptance, landscape impact and environmental sustainability. These issues can be addressed by developments such as wavelength-selective PV; system configurations, such as optimizing module spacing to reduce shading; and operational methods, such as optimizing tracking strategies and integrating agricultural infrastructure. Cross-sector policies can support AV systems by addressing the needs of diverse stakeholders over shared land resources. Further development will require collaboration among the design, performance, deployment and systems research communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Institutional Transformation Version 2.5 Modeling and Planning.

Reducing the resource consumption and emissions of large institutions is an important step toward a sustainable future. Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) Institutional Transformation (IX) project vision is to provide tools that enable planners to make well-informed decisions concerning sustainability, resource conservation, and emissions reduction across multiple sectors. The building sector has been the primary focus so far because it is the largest consumer of resources for SNL. The IX building module allows users to define the evolution of many buildings over time. The module has been created so that it can be generally applied to any set of DOE-2 ( http://doe2.com ) building models that have been altered to include parameters and expressions required by energy conservation measures (ECM). Once building models have been appropriately prepared, they are checked into a Microsoft Access (r) database. Each building can be represented by many models. This enables the capability to keep a continuous record of models in the past, which are replaced with different models as changes occur to the building. In addition to this, the building module has the capability to apply climate scenarios through applying different weather files to each simulation year. Once the database has been configured, a user interface in Microsoft Excel (r) is used to create scenarios with one or more ECMs. The capability to include central utility buildings (CUBs) that service more than one building with chilled water has been developed. A utility has been created that joins multiple building models into a single model. After using the utility, several manual steps are required to complete the process. Once this CUB model has been created, the individual contributions of each building are still tracked through meters. Currently, 120 building models from SNL's New Mexico and California campuses have been created. This includes all buildings at SNL greater than 10,000 sq. ft., representing 80% of the energy consumption at SNL. SNL has been able to leverage this model to estimate energy savings potential of many competing ECMs. The results helped high level decision makers to create energy reduction goals for SNL. These resources also have multiple applications for use of the models as individual buildings. In addition to the building module, a solar module built in Powersim Studio (r) allows planners to evaluate the potential photovoltaic (PV) energy generation potential for flat plate PV, concentrating solar PV, and concentration solar thermal technologies at multiple sites across SNL's New Mexico campus. Development of the IX modeling framework was a unique collaborative effort among planners and engineers in SNL's facilities division; scientists and computer modelers in SNL's research and development division; faculty from Arizona State University; and energy modelers from Bridger and Paxton Consulting Engineers Incorporated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Hydrogen Concept within the United States

The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation - especially from wind and solar - is growing rapidly, and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost, security, and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability, creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system. This is the focus of H2@Scale - a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications, such as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility, a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks, benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21 st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them, first, by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e., if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus, it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance, but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second, we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2018

Systematic Layout Planning of a Radiology Reporting Area to Optimize Radiologists’ Performance

Optimizing radiologists’ performance is a major priority for managers of health services/systems, since the radiologists’ reporting activity imposes a severe constraint on radiology productivity. Despite that, methods to optimize radiologists’ reporting workplace layout are scarce in the literature. This study was performed in the Radiology Division (RD) of an 850-bed University-based general hospital. The analysis of the reporting workplace layout was carried out using the systematic layout planning (SLP) method, in association with cluster analysis as a complementary tool in early stages of SLP. Radiologists, architects, and hospital managers were the stakeholders consulted for the completion of different stages of the layout planning process. A step-by-step description of the proposed methodology to plan an RD reporting layout is presented. Clusters of radiologists were defined using types of exams reported and their frequency of occurrence as clustering variables. Sectors with high degree of interaction were placed in proximity in the new RD layout, with separation of noisy and quiet areas. Four reporting cells were positioned in the quiet area, grouping radiologists by subspecialty, as follows: cluster 1-abdomen; cluster 2-musculoskeletal; cluster 3-neurological, vascular and head & neck; cluster 4-thoracic and cardiac. The creation of reporting cells has the potential to limit unplanned interruptions and enhance the exchange of knowledge and information within cells, joining radiologists with the same expertise. That should lead to improvements in productivity, allowing managers to more easily monitor radiologists’ performance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Packaged Combined Heat and Power Technology Overview and Market Profile

Combined heat and power (CHP), sometimes referred to as cogeneration, is an efficient and clean approach to generating electric power and useful thermal energy onsite from a single fuel source, offering reliable and affordable energy services to businesses and institutions. Furthermore, CHP provides a cost effective opportunity to improve the environmental footprint and resilience of industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. CHP equipment can be custom-engineered or installed as a predesigned and assembled package. A packaged CHP system is a standardized, pre-engineered system that includes all equipment, piping, wiring, and ancillary components to deliver electricity and thermal energy to a host facility with minimal onsite engineering and design time. Packaged CHP systems can be shipped as single or multiple modules with standard interconnections (e.g., fuel; electrical; thermal—hot water, steam, and/or chilled water), which simplifies installation and reduces the costs associated with the project. Most containerized or single packaged CHP system offerings range from 10 kW to 3 MW in capacity. Packaged CHP systems are extending the operating, efficiency, and emissions benefits of CHP to nontraditional markets in commercial, institutional, multifamily, light manufacturing, government, and military applications. These markets tend to be served by smaller systems (less than 5 MW) that are conducive to pre-engineered packaging and/or modularization. Many of these sectors have limited CHP experience and technical resources to adequately evaluate, install, and maintain onsite CHP systems. The introduction of packaged CHP offerings from experienced CHP Packagers and Solution Providers has accelerated CHP adoption, lowered energy costs, reduced emissions, and strengthened energy resilience in these sectors. In 2019, the US Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Packaged CHP eCatalog to promote increased acceptance of efficient, cost-effective CHP in these applications. The Packaged CHP eCatalog is a web-based, searchable platform that hosts DOE-recognized packaged CHP systems with features designed to reduce economic and performance risks for designers, developers, owners, and facility operators interested in installing CHP. DOE established the Packaged CHP Accelerator at the same time to help launch and publicize the eCatalog, and to validate project performance, cost, and installation time of CHP packages across a variety of applications. Accelerator efforts documented installed cost reductions and installation time reductions of more than 20% for packaged CHP systems over 100 kW compared with custom-engineered systems. The Packaged CHP Accelerator and eCatalog established a peer-to-peer network connecting public and private sector partners including utilities, state energy offices, and energy efficiency program administrators interested in promoting cost-effective, efficient CHP systems, Packagers, and Solution Providers. Feedback from these partners, along with input from DOE’s CHP Technical Assistance Partnerships (CHP TAPs), was critical in understanding the current market for packaged CHP technologies, stimulating investment in these technologies, and guiding future directions for packaged CHP systems and their applications. This report provides background on packaged CHP systems, an overview of their benefits, a profile of current packaged CHP installations, and a summary of future market trends; this report is intended for facility owners, project developers, engineers, policymakers, and other stakeholders looking to increase the adoption of efficient, flexible, and resilient packaged CHP systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing Wildfire Needs: The Expanded User Interface of NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (Firms)

As the global community continues to experience, and respond to, living in a changing environment, access to tools, technologies, and timely data utilized by an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders is increasing. This year, 2023, has thus far seen an unprecedented number of extreme events, increasingly driven by changes in the climate and a strong 2023 ENSO pattern. In Canada, a record number of wildfires, and associated weather events, evacuations, and infrastructure and habitat destruction has taken place, and is ongoing. Large swaths of Greece have experienced similar wildfire destruction. Most recently, Maui has experienced destructive wildfires, and early 2023 saw massive wildfires in Chile. NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS, has a fifteen-year history of providing timely and comprehensive data and information on wildfires to stakeholders. FIRMS was initially developed in 2007 by the University of Maryland, with funds from NASA's Applied Sciences Program and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO), to provide near real-time active fire Locations to natural resource managers that faced challenges obtaining timely satellite-derived fire information. FIRMS has consistently evolved to address the needs of stakeholders Living in a changing environment; in 2012 it transitioned to NASA LANCE and in 2021 through a partnership between NASA and the US Forest Service, an updated version of FIRMS was released for the US and Canada. As NASA and other federal agencies continue to accelerate Open Science through integrated efforts such as the Year of Open Science, the provision of readily discoverable, findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable data represents a major focus to facilitate equitable outcomes. FIRMS supports this acceleration in Open Science by continuing to provision data and information for its traditional user base, while addressing the novel user needs of an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders seeking robust, reliable, transparently generated data and information. Increasingly, FIRMS is utilized by citizen scientists and individuals directly affected by wildfires - through evacuations, risks to structures/homes, poor air quality. etc. FIRMS has also been Leveraged to detect and assess the impacts resulting from ongoing conflicts. This further highlights the multi-faceted impacts of wildfires and other events. In the Fall of 2023, FIRMS will release an expanded User Interface (UI). This interface captures and reflects the needs of, and input from, a multitude of users. These users range from federal agency representatives to non-government organizations to the private sector to citizen science entities. To respond to this expansive and diverse user need base, the updated FIRMS UI will capture a range of features to support those beginning to explore the range of data and tools available to inform wildfire awareness and knowledge. These users are supported through a Basic Mode interface, furnishing access to a light set of functionalities that provision straight-forward, readily usable information and data, and ingestible knowledge. The Advanced Mode interface supports those stakeholder groups already proficient in navigating FIRMS. These stakeholders, representing fire managers and others, perform active fire management and tactical wildfire response activities. For these stakeholders, additional datasets have been included which require in-depth knowledge of both the utility as well as the caveats of such datasets. Additional functionalities have also been embedded to aid specific user queries. The expanded UI will introduce a new Experimental Mode. The focus of this UI will be to support the provision of emerging and innovative datasets that are in development for review and comment by the user community Examples include post-fire products generated by NASA's Earth Information System (EIS) Fire. This presentation will provide an overview of the expanded FIRMS UI. We will discuss how this UI is designed to be scalable and support the unique needs of an expanding and diverse user base. We will highlight key features, elements, and datasets, and describe how user needs have informed and guided the design of the UI. We will also share recent use cases to convey, and increase awareness, among conference participants. As the global community faces more extreme wildfires, due to climate variability and change, there is an increased need for reliable data to inform, manage, and mitigate the impacts of these events. Through this work, NASA FIRMS is striving to level the playing field, by making information accessible to all; from policy makers to the private sector to historically marginalized communities. In doing so, NASA is promoting the all-hands-on-deck response needed to minimize the impacts of wildfires and harness the strengths of open science to address the greatest environmental challenge faced.

Jenny Hewson↗

NASA NTRS2015

Center Planning and Development: Multi-User Spaceport Initiatives

The Vehicle Assembly building at NASAs Kennedy Space Center has been used since 1966 to vertically assemble every launch vehicle, since the Apollo Program, launched from Launch Complex 39 (LC-39). After the cancellation of the Constellation Program in 2010 and the retirement of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011, the VAB faced an uncertain future. As the Space Launch System (SLS) gained a foothold as the future of American spaceflight to deep space, NASA was only using a portion of the VABs initial potential. With three high bays connected to the Crawler Way transportation system, the potential exists for up to three rockets to be simultaneously processed for launch. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Master plan, supported by the Center Planning and Development (CPD) Directorate, is guiding Kennedy toward a 21st century multi-user spaceport. This concept will maintain Kennedy as the United States premier gateway to space and provide multi-user operations through partnerships with the commercial aerospace industry. Commercial aerospace companies, now tasked with transporting cargo and, in the future, astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) via the Commercial Resupply Service (CRS) and Commercial Crew Program (CCP), are a rapidly growing industry with increasing capabilities to make launch operations more economical for both private companies and the government. Commercial operations to Low Earth Orbit allow the government to focus on travel to farther destinations through the SLS Program. With LC-39B designated as a multi-use launch pad, companies seeking to use it will require an integration facility to assemble, integrate, and test their launch vehicle. An Announcement for Proposals (AFP) was released in June, beginning the process of finding a non-NASA user for High Bay 2 (HB2) and the Mobile Launcher Platforms (MLPs). An Industry Day, a business meeting and tour for interested companies and organizations, was also arranged to identify and answer any additional questions posed by potential proposers. After amending the AFP and posting additional material for potential users to consider, proposals are being accepted until July 31, at which point they will be evaluated to determine the proposer which best meets the objectives of the government. By identifying VAB HB2 as available and seeking proposals from the commercial sector for VAB HB2 and MLP use, Center Planning and Development is ensuring Kennedy Space Centers relevance in the evolving launch industry of the 21st century.

AFP↗

NASA NTRS2016

Space Mobile Network: A Near Earth Communications and Navigation Architecture

This paper shares key findings of NASA's Earth Regime Network Evolution Study (ERNESt) team resulting from its 18-month effort to define a wholly new architecture-level paradigm for the exploitation of space by civil space and commercial sector organizations. Since the launch of Sputnik in October 1957 spaceflight missions have remained highly scripted activities from launch through disposal. The utilization of computer technology has enabled dramatic increases in mission complexity; but, the underlying premise that the diverse actions necessary to meet mission goals requires minute-by-minute scripting, defined weeks in advance of execution, for the life of the mission has remained. This archetype was appropriate for a "new frontier" but now risks overtly constraining the potential market-based opportunities for the innovation considered necessary to efficiently address the complexities associated with meeting communications and navigation requirements projected to be characteristics of the next era of space exploration: a growing number of missions in simultaneous execution, increased variance of mission types and growth in location/orbital regime diversity. The resulting ERNESt architectural cornerstone - the Space Mobile Network (SMN) - was envisioned as critical to creating an environment essential to meeting these future challenges in political, programmatic, technological and budgetary terms. The SMN incorporates technologies such as: Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) and optical communications, as well as new operations concepts such as User Initiated Services (UIS) to provide user services analogous to today's terrestrial mobile network user. Results developed in collaboration with NASA's Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Division and field centers are reported on. Findings have been validated via briefings to external focus groups and initial ground-based demonstrations. The SMN opens new niches for exploitation by the marketplace of mission planners and service providers.

Space Communication Spacecraft↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationship between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we find that firms charged higher prices in more competitive markets in our sample. The finding is robust across multiple definitions of firm concentration. There are at least two potential explanations for our findings. First, firms could be conducting entry deterrence strategies. It is possible that firms are acting in a non-competitive way and setting prices lower than they would be otherwise. Setting low prices that are below potential competitors' marginal costs could deter entrants and ensure a larger market share. Second, there could be a group of dominant firms (with a competitive fringe), and the dominant firms may occasionally engage in price wars. If this is true, prices should be lower in more concentrated markets during the price wars (Salinger, 1990). As the rooftop PV market continues to grow, market structure will remain a relevant policy issue in consideration of the potential for rooftop solar to contribute to de-carbonization efforts or other policy objectives. This paper adds to a growing emphasis on understanding supply-side factors in scaling up solar markets in the residential sector. Generally, solar markets have become more competitive over the same time period that solar technology costs decreased. While solar system hard costs have come down, our research suggests that total costs are more nuanced in early solar system TPO markets. Policymakers should consider these findings when designing markets, and have the data needed to make informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2015

2015 Annual Report for the Flight Opportunities Program

Welcome to this third edition of the Flight Opportunities program annual report. In this edition, we continue our story of pathfinding NASA's role in the partnership with the U.S. commercial space and space technology R&D communities to advance national space interests and develop technologies critical to NASA's future missions. 2015 was the year in which a planned change to our payload solicitation strategy saw its first tangible result. As you might remember from our 2014 annual report, in 2015 we set out to facilitate a more direct interaction between flight providers and technology developers by providing fixed funding awards to researchers to directly purchase the flight service(s) that best meet their needs. The selection and award of the first six REDDI-F1 flight grants to non-U.S. government researchers was an important milestone in this regard. From now on, using the REDDI-F1 solicitation appendix, the program will enable non-U.S. government researchers to directly purchase flight services on the emerging suborbital market. The same (or similar) commercial flight services will be available to NASA and other U.S. government agencies (OGA) through commercial contracts that NASA has established through our program. For the latter, our program is available to provide campaign management services, similar to the role we play(ed) for technology payloads remaining in our pool from earlier selections. The full impact of this broader strategic change will likely become more visible in the years ahead as our legacy pool gets depleted and we have implemented a new NASA- and OGA-specific call for proposals. One observation that can already be made after two rounds of REDDI-F1 solicitations is that through this change, the list of commercial flight service providers of interest to non-U.S. government researchers has grown from five in 2014 to nine in 2015. On the industry development front, our Announcement of Collaborative Opportunities (ACO) solicitation was promoted to an STMD-wide solicitation and released in 2015 in combination with the Tipping Point solicitation. A total of 22 awards was announced in November 2015, 12 of which are ACO awards, and six of these are funded by Flight Opportunities. Through these ACO awards, the program funds NASA technical expertise and NASA test facilities to aid industry partners in maturing key space technologies, in our case focusing on small launch vehicle technology development. Flight test activity in 2015 saw a steady 13 campaigns with 31 payload-flights (29 unique payloads). Thirteen new payloads were selected into the program in FY2015, and 14 payloads completed flight testing, bringing the total number of completed technology demonstration payloads to 69. Overall, we are pleased with the evolution and growth of the Flight Opportunities program and look forward to continued success in our partnership with the technology R&D community and the commercial space sector.

Flight Testing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hazard and Operability Study for the Ammonia Fuel Systems at the National Transportation Research Center

Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Buildings and Transportation Science Division (BTSD) plans to operate research engines fueled by ammonia in two engine test cells at the National Transportation Research Center (NTRC). A scientific need has recently emerged to evaluate the suitability of liquid anhydrous ammonia as a low-lifecycle-carbon fuel source for difficult-to-electrify transportation sectors, including the marine sector. Therefore, BTSD plans to install an ammonia storage and delivery system to 2360 HVC engine research labs L125 (Cell 3) and L111 (Cell 7) capable of delivering 35 and 75 lb/h, respectively. These laboratories are specifically designed to allow for engine and fuels research and development, and they have existing safety systems for mitigating risks associated with toxics and flammables. Anhydrous ammonia is toxic and flammable, and the system will use relatively large quantities compared with standard gas bottles. Ammonia is one of the most widely produced chemicals in the world, and the hazards associated with toxicity and flammability are well understood. Ammonia storage for use in engine research at NTRC is anticipated to take the form of an ammonia tank with capacity of 1,000 water gallons; this quantity will remain below the threshold quantity of 10,000 lb (~2,000 gal) used both by the US Environmental Protection Agency for reporting under the Emergency Planning and Community Right to Know Act and for Risk Management Program requirements, and also by the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration for Process Safety Management requirements. ORNL’s Environmental Protection Services Division was also consulted to verify that the quantities of ammonia anticipated to be used would be in compliance with environmental regulations. The Environmental Protection Services Division staff confirmed that the anticipated quantities fall below ORNL’s permit thresholds. However, because of the hazards associated with anhydrous ammonia, the quantities to be used, and the limited experience with similar quantities of ammonia at ORNL, BTSD decided to perform a hazard and operability (HazOp) study on the ammonia storage and delivery system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Implementation of Arizona's nuclear future 153192.doc10 - 15319

The Arizona Energy Education Fund (AEEF), now a 501(c) (3) non-profit entity, is an assembly of stakeholders from the private sector, government, education and energy industries dedicated to supporting K-12 (kindergarten through 12. grade), community colleges and universities through an enhanced program of smart nuclear generator expansion, isotope production, testing of breeder reactor power plants, recycling spent nuclear fuel in power generation facilities, and nuclear fuel cycle support. AEEF priorities are to collaborate with stakeholders in Arizona to develop safe plans that will make Arizona the most nuclear friendly state benefiting all stakeholders. Long-term plans include promoting: - education of K-12 students as well as the general Arizona population so that they fully understand the benefits and safe use of nuclear power; - reliable supply of medical and industrial radioisotopes; - Arizona as host of new reactor concepts which are being developed and demonstrated; - development of nuclear engineering programs in Arizona universities to drive the development of the next generation of nuclear power plants; and - supply of nuclear-generated electricity to California and Sonora, Mexico to power desalinisation plants in exchange for Colorado River water currently allocated to California and Sonora. The development described will generate significant long-term employment for Arizona while delivering a critical service to the nation. Arizona's location advantages include the lack of significant seismic activity, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods or frigid weather. Interstate highways and railroads are well developed and provide good, all-weather access to many potential development sites. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. Our paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. Furthermore, a set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Building analytics and monitoring-based commissioning: industry practice, costs, and savings

As building energy and system-level monitoring becomes more common, facility teams are faced with an overwhelming amount of data. This data does not typically lead to insights, corrective actions, and energy savings unless it is stored, organized, analyzed, and prioritized in automated ways. The Smart Energy Analytics Campaign is a public-private sector partnership program focused on supporting commercially available energy management and information systems (EMIS) technology use and monitoring-based commissioning (MBCx) practices. MBCx is an ongoing commissioning process with focus on analyzing large amounts of data on a continuous basis. EMIS tools are used in the MBCx process to organize, present, visualize, and analyze the data. With campaign data from over 400 million square feet (sq. ft.) of installed space, this paper presents the results achieved by owners that are implementing EMIS, along with associated technology costs. The study’s EMIS users that reported savings achieved the median cost savings of $0.19/sq. ft. and 7% annually, with savings shown to increase over time. For 35 portfolio owners, the median base cost to install an EMIS was $0.03/sq. ft., with an annual recurring software cost of $0.02/sq. ft. and an estimated annual labor cost of $0.03/sq. ft. Two types of EMIS systems -- energy information systems and fault detection and diagnostic systems -- are defined in the body of the paper. Of the two, we find that fault detection and diagnostic systems have both higher savings and higher costs. The paper offers a characterization of EMIS products, MBCx services, and trends in the industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2022

XSP Methane Sensors Test and Evaluation Project “M-Step”

Methane sensor technology is employed in industry sectors from oil and gas to agriculture, landfills, and monitoring of natural emissions. The US oil and gas sector is extensive in scale, critical to fulfilling US energy needs, and deals with commodities presenting enormous challenges for personnel safety and the environment. Thus, it is imperative that they have accurate and responsive sensors to detect hazardous gases such as methane. US space launch systems will increasingly also use liquefied methane and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is mostly methane, in quantities large and small, as main and auxiliary propulsion and power. Some of these systems will be reusable, which adds the unique challenge of processing a vehicle that has residual commodities and has returned to its launch site to be readied for its next launch. The methane sensors test and evaluation project (M-STEP) began within the context of a reusable launch system, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Experimental Spaceplane (XSP) program, which would have employed a high-pressure gaseous methane and gaseous oxygen reaction control system. Although the XSP partnership between Boeing and DARPA was terminated by Boeing in early 2020, DARPA and KSC have continued to collaborate in the area of gas sensors with the hydrogen sensor test and evaluation project (H-STEP) and with M-STEP. The NASA Launch Services program (LSP) invested in M-STEP in FY 2021 “to evaluate and understand the state-of-the-art in methane gas sensors”. M-STEP and the LSP effort was complementary, pushing in the same direction to understand US launch system stakeholder needs and approaches, requirements internal (NASA) and external, and commercially available or forthcoming methane sensing technologies, practices, and approaches. In addition, M-STEP (as with H-STEP) enhances KSC capabilities and understanding of these technologies, informing agency investments and further research in these areas.

Tracy L. Gibson↗