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Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗

Standardization of a Volumetric Displacement Measurement for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Data Analysis

A limitation has been identified in the existing test standards used for making controlled, two-body abrasion scratch measurements based solely on the width of the resultant score on the surface of the material. A new, more robust method is proposed for analyzing a surface scratch that takes into account the full three-dimensional profile of the displaced material. To accomplish this, a set of four volume displacement metrics are systematically defined by normalizing the overall surface profile to statistically denote the area of relevance, termed the Zone of Interaction (ZOI). From this baseline, depth of the trough and height of the ploughed material are factored into the overall deformation assessment. Proof of concept data were collected and analyzed to demonstrate the performance of this proposed methodology. This technique takes advantage of advanced imaging capabilities that now allow resolution of the scratched surface to be quantified in greater detail than was previously achievable. A quantified understanding of fundamental particle-material interaction is critical to anticipating how well components can withstand prolonged use in highly abrasive environments, specifically for our intended applications on the surface of the Moon and other planets or asteroids, as well as in similarly demanding, harsh terrestrial settings

Kobrick, Ryan L.↗

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work

In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Occupant Protection at NASA

This slide presentation reviews NASA's efforts to arrive at protection of occupants of the ORION space craft on landing. An Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) has been developed, it is an anatomically-based, consensus-derived, global severity scoring system that classifies each injury by body region according to its relative importance on a 6-point ordinal scale. It reviews an Operationmally Relevant Injury Scale (ORIS), a classification methodology, and shows charts that detail the results of applying this ORIS to the injury databases. One chart uses NASCAR injury classification. It discusses providing a context for the level of risk inherent in the Orion landings in terms that people understand and have a sense for. For example is the risk of injury during an Orion landing roughly the same, better or worse than: An aircraft carrier landing, a NASCAR crash, or a helicopter crash, etc? The data for NASCAR and Indy Racing league (IRL) racing crash and injury data was reviewed. The risk from the Air Force, Navy, and Army injury data was also reviewed. Past NASA and the Soyuz programs injury risks are also reviewed. The work is an attempt to formulate a recommendation to the Orion Project for an acceptable level of injury risk associated with Nominal and Off-Nominal landing cases. The presentation also discusses the data mining and use of the data to Validate NASA Operationally-Relevant Injury Scale (NORIS) / Military Operationally-Relevant Injury Scale (MORIS), developing injury risk criteria, the types of data that are required, NASCAR modeling techniques and crash data, and comparison with the Brinkley model. The development of injury risk curves for each biodynamic response parameter is discussed. One of the main outcomes of this work is to establish an accurate Automated Test Dummy (ATD) that can be used to measure human tolerances.

Somers, Jeffrey↗

Skill in Retrievals

Retrieval Skill quantifies the ability of one retrieval from a sounder to be more accurate than the best forecast relative to another with the same of another sounder. This is summarized using a Retrieval Anomaly Skill Score (RASS) which is the cor (retrieved-background, truth-background) * sqrt(f), Where f is defined as the ratio of accepted to the possible retrievals. Charts show various features and comparisons of RASS to other methods of retrieval.

forecasting↗

Performance Benefits Associated with Context-Dependent Arm Pointing Adaptation

Our previous work has demonstrated that head orientation can be used as a contextual cue to switch between mUltiple adaptive states. Subjects were assigned to one of three groups: the head orientation group tilted the head towards the right shoulder when drawing under a 0.5 gain of display and towards the left shoulder when drawing under a 1.5 gain of display; the target orientation group had the home & target positions rotated counterclockwise when drawing under the 0.5 gain and clockwise for the l.5 gain; the arm posture group changed the elbow angle of the arm they were not drawing with from full flexion to full extension with 0.5 and l.5 gain display changes. The head orientation cue was effectively associated with the multiple gains, in comparison to the control conditions. The purpose of the current investigation was to determine whether this context-dependent adaptation results in any savings in terms of performance measures such as movement duration and movement smoothness when subjects switch between multiple adaptive states. Subjects in the head adaptation group demonstrated reduced movement duration and increased movement smoothness (measured via normalized j erk scores) in comparison to the two control groups when switching between the 0.5 and 1.5 gain. of display. This work has demonstrated not only that subjects can acquire context-dependent adaptation, but also that it results in a significant savings of performance upon transfer between adaptive states

Seidler, R. D.↗

Primate Anatomy, Kinematics, and Principles for Humanoid Design

The primate order of animals is investigated for clues in the design of Humanoid Robots. The pursuit is directed with a theory that kinematics, musculature, perception, and cognition can be optimized for specific tasks by varying the proportions of limbs, and in particular, the points of branching in kinematic trees such as the primate skeleton. Called the Bifurcated Chain Hypothesis, the theory is that the branching proportions found in humans may be superior to other animals and primates for the tasks of dexterous manipulation and other human specialties. The primate taxa are defined, contemporary primate evolution hypotheses are critiqued, and variations within the order are noted. The kinematic branching points of the torso, limbs and fingers are studied for differences in proportions across the order, and associated with family and genus capabilities and behaviors. The human configuration of a long waist, long neck, and short arms is graded using a kinematic workspace analysis and a set of design axioms for mobile manipulation robots. It scores well. The re emergence of the human waist, seen in early Prosimians and Monkeys for arboreal balance, but lost in the terrestrial Pongidae, is postulated as benefiting human dexterity. The human combination of an articulated waist and neck will be shown to enable the use of smaller arms, achieving greater regions of workspace dexterity than the larger limbs of Gorillas and other Hominoidea.

Ambrose, Robert O.↗

NASA-Navy Telemedicine: Autogenic Feedback Training Exercises for Motion Sickness

Airsickness is the most significant medical condition affecting naval aviation training. A 2001 study showed that airsickness was reported in 81% of naval aviation students and was associated with 82% of below average flight scores. The cost to a single training air-wing was over $150,000 annually for fuel and maintenance costs alone. Resistent cases are sent to the Naval Aerospace Medical Institute (NAMI) for evaluation and desensitization in the self-paced airsickness desensitization (SPAD) program. This approach is 75% successful, but can take up to 8 weeks at a significant travel cost. NASA Ames Research Center's Autogenic Feedback Training Exercises (AFTE) uses physiological and biofeedback training for motion sickness prevention. It has a remote capability that has been used from Moffett Field, CA to Atlanta, GA . AFTE is administered in twelve (30-minute) training sessions. The success rate for the NASA AFTE program has been over 85%. Methods: Implementation Phases: Phase I: Transfer NASA AFTE to NAMI; NASA will remotely train aviation students at NAMI. Phase II: NAMI-centered AFTE application with NASA oversight. Phase III: NAMI-centered AFTE to remotely train at various Navy sites. Phase IV: NAMI to offer Tri-service application and examine research opportunities. Results: 1. Use available telemedicine connectivity between NAMI and NASA. 2. Save over $2,000 per student trained. 3. Reduce aviation training attrition. 4. Provide standardization of multi-location motion sickness training. 5. Future tri-service initiatives. 6. Data to NASA and Navy for QA and research opportunities.

Acromite, Michael T.↗

Decline in Aerobic Fitness After Long-Term Stays on the International Space Station

U.S. and non-Russian International Partner astronauts who participate in long-term International Space Station (ISS) expeditions perform submaximal cycle exercise tests before, during, and after space flight. The heart rate (HR) and oxygen uptake (VO2) responses to exercise are used to estimate peak VO2 (EVO2pk). Purpose: To determine if the following factors are associated with the preflight-to-post flight change in EVO2pk: gender, age, body weight (BW), number of aerobic exercise sessions/wk- during flight, length of flight, EVO2pk measured before and late during the flight, ISS Expedition number and time between landing and the first post flight test. Methods: Records of 37 ISS astronauts (30 male, BW=81.6 plus or minus 8.6 kg; 7 female BW=66.1 plus or minus 4.9 kg [mean plus or minus SD]), age 46 plus or minus 4 years, were retrospectively examined. Peak HR and VO2 were measured approximately 9 months before flight to establish the test protocol. The submaximal cycle test consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25, 50, and 75% of VO2pk. EVO2pk was calculated using linear least-squares extrapolation of average HR and VO2 during the last minute of each stage to predict VO2 at maximal HR. VO2 was not measured during flight and was assumed to not be different from preflight. Testing was performed 45 days before launch, late during flight, and during the week after landing. A random-intercept multivariate model was used to determine which characteristics significantly contributed to post flight EVO2pk. Results: In-flight aerobic exercise averaged 5.4 plus or minus 1.2 sessions/wk. ISS flight duration averaged 163 plus or minus 39 d. Mean EVO2pk values were 3.41 plus or minus 0.64 L (raised dot) per minute before flight, 3.09 plus or minus 0.57 L (raised dot) per minute late in flight, and 3.02 plus or minus 0.65 L (raised dot) per minute after flight. Late- and after-flight values were lower (p less than 0.05) than preflight values and did not differ from each other. Time between landing and post flight testing was 4.5 plus or minus 1.6 days. The only factor significantly associated with the post flight EVO2pk value was the late-flight EVO2pk score. Conclusion: Testing performed late during a mission provides a prediction of EVO2pk after landing. This approach may be implemented during longer missions.

Lynn, Peggy A.↗

Development of an In Flight Vision Self-Assessment Questionnaire for Long Duration Space Missions

OVERVIEW A NASA Flight Medicine optometrist teamed with a human factors specialist to develop an electronic questionnaire for crewmembers to record their visual acuity test scores and perceived vision assessment. It will be implemented on the International Space Station (ISS) and administered as part of a suite of tools for early detection of potential vision changes. The goal of this effort was to rapidly develop a set of questions to help in early detection of visual (e.g. blurred vision) and/or non-visual (e.g. headaches) symptoms by allowing the ISS crewmembers to think about their own current vision during their spaceflight missions. PROCESS An iterative process began with a Space Shuttle one-page paper questionnaire generated by the optometrist that was updated by applying human factors design principles. It was used as a baseline to establish an electronic questionnaire for ISS missions. Additional questions needed for the ISS missions were included and the information was organized to take advantage of the computer-based file format available. Human factors heuristics were applied to the prototype and then they were reviewed by the optometrist and procedures specialists with rapid-turn around updates that lead to the final questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS With about only a month lead time, a usable tool to collect crewmember assessments was developed through this cross-discipline collaboration. With only a little expenditure of energy, the potential payoff is great. ISS crewmembers will complete the questionnaire at 30 days into the mission, 100 days into the mission and 30 days prior to return to Earth. The systematic layout may also facilitate physicians later data extraction for quick interpretation of the data. The data collected along with other measures (e.g. retinal and ultrasound imaging) at regular intervals could potentially lead to early detection and treatment of related vision problems than using the other measures alone.

Byrne, Vicky E.↗

The Walk on Floor Eyes Closed Tandem Step Test as a Quantitative Measure of Ataxia After Space Flight

INTRODUCTION Posture and locomotion are among the functions most affected by space flight. Postflight ataxia can be quantified easily by using the walk on the floor line test with the eyes closed (WOFEC). Data from a modified WOFEC were obtained as part of an ongoing interdisciplinary pre- and postflight study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate both postflight functional performance of astronauts and related physiological changes. METHODS Five astronauts with flight durations of 12 to 16 days participated in this study. Performance measurements were obtained in 2 preflight sessions, on landing day, and 1, 6, and 30 days after landing. The WOFEC test consisted of walking with the feet placed heel to toe in tandem, arms folded across the chest and eyes closed, for 10 steps. A trial was initiated after the eyes were closed and the front foot was aligned with the rear foot. The performance metric was the average percentage of correct steps completed over 3 trials. A step was not counted as correct if the crewmember sidestepped, opened eyes, or paused for more than 3 seconds between steps. Step accuracy was scored independently by 3 examiners. RESULTS Immediately after landing subjects seemed to be unaware of their foot position relative to their body or the floor. The percentage of correct steps was significantly decreased on landing day. Partial recovery was observed the next day, and full recovery to baseline on the sixth day post landing. CONCLUSION These data clearly demonstrate the sensorimotor challenges facing crewmembers after they return from space flight. Although this simple test is intended to complement the FTT battery of tests, it has some stand-alone value as it provides investigators with a means to quantify vestibular ataxia as well as provide instant feedback on postural stability without the use of complex test equipment.

Fisher, E. A.↗

Effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-Day Bed Rest on Postural Control in Men and Women

INTRODUCTION Head-down-tilt bed rest (HDT) has been used as a safe gr ound-based analog to mimic and develop countermeasures for the physiological effects of spaceflight, including decrements in postural stability. The purpose of this investigation was to characterize the effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-day bed rest on postural control in men and women. METHODS Twenty-nine subjects (18M,11F) underwent 13 days of ambula tory acclimatization and were placed in 6? HDT for 30 (n=12), 60 (n=8), or 90 (n=9) days, followed by 14 days of ambulatory recovery. Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) was used to assess changes in sensory and motor components of postural control, and recovery after HDT. Sensory Organization Tests (SOTs) objectively evaluate one?s ability to effectively use or suppress visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive information for postural control. Stability during the SOTs was assessed using peak-to-peak sway and convergence toward stability limits to derive an equilibrium score. Motor Control Tests (MCTs) evaluate one?s ability to recover from unexpected support surface perturbations, with performance determined by center-of-pressure path length. Whole-body kinematic data were collected to determine body-sway strategy used to maintain stability during each condition. Baselines were determined pre-HDT. Recovery was tracked post-HDT on days 0, 1, 2, and 4. RESULTS Immediately after HDT, subjects showed decreased performance on most SOTs, primarily on sway-referenced support conditions, typically returning to baseline levels within 4 days. MCT performance was not significantly affected. There were no significant gender or duration differences in performance. Kinematic data revealed a tendency to use ankle strategy to maintain an upright stance during most SOT conditions. Interestingly, six subjects (2M,4F) experienced orthostatic intolerance and were unable to complete day 0 testing. CONCLUSION HDT mimics some un loading mechanisms of spaceflight and elicits orthostatic issues present post-spaceflight (contributing to instability); however, it does not sufficiently address the vestibular dysfunction which occurs post-spaceflight.

Esteves, Julie↗

Comparison of Postural Recovery Following Short and Long Duration Spaceflights

INTRODUCTION: Post-flight postural ataxia reflects adaptive changes to vestibulo-spinal reflexes and control strategies adopted for movement in weightlessness. Quantitative measures obtained during computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) from US and Russian programs provide insight into the effect of spaceflight duration in terms of both the initial decrements and recovery of postural stability. METHODS: CDP was obtained on 117 crewmembers following Shuttle flights lasting 4-17 days, and on 64 crewmembers following long-duration missions lasting 48-380 days. Although the number and timing of sessions varied, the goal was to characterize postural recovery pooling similar measures from different research and flight medicine programs. This report focuses on eyes closed, head erect conditions with either a fixed or sway-referenced base of support. A smaller subset of subjects repeated the sway-referenced condition while making pitch head movements (+/- 20deg at 0.33Hz). Equilibrium scores were derived from peak-to-peak anterior-posterior sway. Fall probability was modeled using Bayesian statistical methods to estimate parameters of a logit function. RESULTS: The standard Romberg condition was the least sensitive. Longer duration flights led to larger decrements in stability with sway-reference support during the first 1-2 days, although the timecourse of recovery was similar across flight duration with head erect. Head movements led to increased incidence of falls during the first week, with a significantly longer recovery following long duration flights. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic assessment of postural instability, and differences in the timecourse of postural recovery between short and long flight durations, are more pronounced during unstable support conditions requiring active head movements.

Wood, S. J.↗

Walk on Floor Eyes Closed Test as a Measure of Postflight Ataxia

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts returning from space flight universally exhibit impaired posture and locomotion. Measurement of this impairment is an evolving process. The walk on the floor line test with the eyes closed (WOFEC) provides a unique procedure for quantifying postflight ataxia. Data from a modified WOFEC were obtained as part of an ongoing NASA interdisciplinary pre- and postflight study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate astronaut postflight functional performance. METHODS: Seven astronauts (5 short duration with flights of 12-16 days; 2 long duration crewmembers with flights of 6 months) were tested twice before flight, on landing day (short duration only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. The WOFEC consisted of walking for 10 steps (repeated twice) with the feet heel to toe in tandem, arms folded across the chest and the eyes closed. The performance metric (scored by three examiners from video) was the percentage of correct steps completed over the three trials. A step was not counted as correct if the crewmember sidestepped, opened their eyes, or paused for more than three seconds between steps. RESULTS/ CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant decrease in percentage of correct steps on landing day (short duration crew) and on first day following landing (long duration) with partial recovery the following day, and full recovery beginning on day sixth after flight. Both short and long duration fliers appeared to be unaware of foot position relative to their bodies or the floor. Postflight, deviation from a straight path was common, and the test for two crewmembers elicited motion sickness symptoms. These data clearly demonstrate the sensorimotor challenges facing crewmembers after returning from spaceflight. The WOFEC test has value providing the investigator or crew surgeon with a simple method to quantify vestibular ataxia, as well as providing instant feedback of postural ataxia without the use of complex test equipment.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Operational Dynamic Configuration Analysis

Sectors may combine or split within areas of specialization in response to changing traffic patterns. This method of managing capacity and controller workload could be made more flexible by dynamically modifying sector boundaries. Much work has been done on methods for dynamically creating new sector boundaries [1-5]. Many assessments of dynamic configuration methods assume the current day baseline configuration remains fixed [6-7]. A challenging question is how to select a dynamic configuration baseline to assess potential benefits of proposed dynamic configuration concepts. Bloem used operational sector reconfigurations as a baseline [8]. The main difficulty is that operational reconfiguration data is noisy. Reconfigurations often occur frequently to accommodate staff training or breaks, or to complete a more complicated reconfiguration through a rapid sequence of simpler reconfigurations. Gupta quantified a few aspects of airspace boundary changes from this data [9]. Most of these metrics are unique to sector combining operations and not applicable to more flexible dynamic configuration concepts. To better understand what sort of reconfigurations are acceptable or beneficial, more configuration change metrics should be developed and their distribution in current practice should be computed. This paper proposes a method to select a simple sequence of configurations among operational configurations to serve as a dynamic configuration baseline for future dynamic configuration concept assessments. New configuration change metrics are applied to the operational data to establish current day thresholds for these metrics. These thresholds are then corroborated, refined, or dismissed based on airspace practitioner feedback. The dynamic configuration baseline selection method uses a k-means clustering algorithm to select the sequence of configurations and trigger times from a given day of operational sector combination data. The clustering algorithm selects a simplified schedule containing k configurations based on stability score of the sector combinations among the raw operational configurations. In addition, the number of the selected configurations is determined based on balance between accuracy and assessment complexity.

Lai, Chok Fung↗

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

MacNeice, Peter↗

Toward Online Measurement of Decision State

In traditional perceptual decision-making experiments, two pieces of data are collected on each trial: response time and accuracy. But how confident were participants and how did their decision state evolve over time? We asked participants to provide a continuous readout of their decision state by moving a cursor along a sliding scale between a 100% certain left response and a 100% certain right response. Subjects did not terminate the trials; rather, trials were timed out at random and subjects were scored based on the cursor position at that time. Higher rewards for correct responses and higher penalties for errors were associated with extreme responses so that the response with the highest expected value was that which accurately reflected the participant's odds of being correct. This procedure encourages participants to expose the time-course of their evolving decision state. Evidence on how well they can do this will be presented.

Lachter, Joel↗