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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
DOE OSTI2026

Small Reservoirs Offer a New Perspective on Flood Reduction in Large Basins

The flood reduction potential of individual reservoirs within a large river network continuum remains poorly understood due to the complex interplay between reservoir characteristics and network properties. Here we investigate whether a collection of relatively small reservoirs can play a significant role in mediating downstream floods and assess how that role may be influenced by reservoir network properties compared to traditionally known reservoir characteristics. Our unique contribution was the simulation of downstream flood inundation maps alongside peak flows for each of the 81 major reservoirs (6 × 104 to 8 × 109 m3) across 15,000 river reach segments, integrated into a process-based hydrologic model covering a 415,000 km2 region in the Texas Gulf Coast, United States. The three key takeaways from our study are as follows. (a) Smaller reservoirs can substantially reduce downstream flooding, suggesting that inclusion of large reservoirs—the traditional approach in flood risk management studies—may present only a partial picture. (b) Flood reduction by smaller reservoirs is more effective upstream, although this phenomenon may be linked with aridity and overall water availability. (c) While reservoir size matters, it is not the primary factor determining its downstream flood reduction potential; the influence of network properties, such as catchment area, the count of upstream reservoirs, the cumulative maximum storage capacity of upstream reservoirs, and Stream Order (i.e., location), is equally and often more important. The broader impact of our findings goes beyond just floods, providing foundational insights for addressing emerging challenges such as aging dams and river connectivity.

Patel, Krutikkumar [University of Texas at Arlingt↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable graphene sensor array for real-time toxins monitoring in flowing water

Abstract Risk management for drinking water often requires continuous monitoring of various toxins in flowing water. While they can be readily integrated with existing water infrastructure, two-dimensional (2D) electronic sensors often suffer from device-to-device variations due to the lack of an effective strategy for identifying faulty devices from preselected uniform devices based on electronic properties alone, resulting in sensor inaccuracy and thus slowing down their real-world applications. Here, we report the combination of wet transfer, impedance and noise measurements, and machine learning to facilitate the scalable nanofabrication of graphene-based field-effect transistor (GFET) sensor arrays and the efficient identification of faulty devices. Our sensors were able to perform real-time detection of heavy-metal ions (lead and mercury) and E. coli bacteria simultaneously in flowing tap water. This study offers a reliable quality control protocol to increase the potential of electronic sensors for monitoring pollutants in flowing water.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗