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At least 595 records · Page 33

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

Astrophysics and Technical Study of a Solar Neutrino Spacecraft: NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) Grant - NASA 2018-Phase-1

We report on our study of the design of a neutrino detector, shielding and veto array needed to operate a neutrino detector in space close to the Sun. This study also took into account the expected rates of Galactic gamma and cosmic rays in addition to the particles from the Sun.These preliminary studies show that we can devise a detector such that a small signal of neutrino interactions can be extracted from a large random number of events from the background sources using a double timing method from the conversion electron produced in the neutrino interaction and a secondary delayed signal from the nuclear excited state produced from the initial neutrino interaction; in our case the conversion of Ga 69 or 71 into Ge 69 or 71, but this method could apply to other nuclei with large neutrino cross sections such as Ir 115. Although these types of events need to be above 0.405 megaelectronvolt (MeV) neutrino energy and are only 66 percent of all conversion neutrino interactions on Gallium, this is a small price to pay for an increase of 10,000 by going close to the Sun to enhance the neutrino rate over the background combatorical fake-signal events. The conclusion of this Phase-1 study is very positive in that we can get the backgrounds less than 20 percent fake signals, and in addition to this we have devised another shielding method that makes the Galactic gamma-ray rate a hundred fold less which will make further improvements over these initial estimates. Although these studies are very encouraging it suggests that the next step is a NIAC Phase-II to actually build a test device,measuring basic principles such as light attention within the scintillator with high dopants and to take data in the lab with a cosmic-ray test stand and triggered X-ray source for comparison with simulated expected performance of the detector. This would be the perfect lead into a future proposal beyond a NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) Phase-II for a test flight of a small one-pint detector in orbit of the detector concept beyond Earth outside of the radiation belts.

Astrophysics↗

Thermal Expansion from Stochastic Nonlinear Acoustic Fields

The methods of stochastic mechanics are applied to nonlinear acoustic fields generated by random acoustic radiation sources associated with oscillating lattice sites in nonlinear lattices. The assumption of stochastically independent zero-point and temperature-dependent acoustic fields leads to expressions of the thermodynamic internal and Helmholtz free energies per unit mass in terms of modal energies per unit mass that account for the nonlinearity of the propagation modes. The thermodynamic state functions canonically transform to the familiar results of a system of quantized, simple harmonic oscillators in the linear field limit. The thermal expansion coefficient, derived from the Helmholtz free energy per unit mass, is obtained as a sum of the zero-point modal nonlinearity parameters, weighted by temperature-dependent, modal heat capacities. The relationship is fully anharmonic, in contrast to commonly used quasi-harmonic models, and predicts with excellent agreement the experimentally observed null thermal expansion of vitreous silica at the ‘cross-over’ temperature corresponding to the balance between long wavelength modes that contribute negative nonlinearity parameters to the modal sum and short wavelength modes that contribute positive nonlinearity parameters.

Cantrell, John H., Jr.↗

Impact of Simulated Microgravity on Mesenchymal Stem Cell Proliferation

Background Long term exposure to microgravity has adverse effects on human body such as bone loss. Due to the vital role of mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) in bone regeneration, studying MSC under microgravity conditions has been of interest during the past decade. However, high cost and limited access to space flight can dampen enthusiasm of researchers. Microgravity simulators provide a way to investigate the effects of microgravity in human physiology. Methods In this study, we compared MSC cultures under simulated microgravity using random positioning machine (RPM) and Gravite 3D simulators. Two culture durations, 1 week and 2 weeks, were selected for MSC cultures without media change. To evaluate impact of simulated microgravity on cell proliferation, cell counting was performed using trypan blue exclusion assay. Additionally, RNA samples and conditioned media were collected for further analysis. Results After 1 week and 2 weeks, no cell morphology change was observed from RPM and Gravite cultures compared to control. Notably, distinct lower cell confluence at the edge of the flasks on the RPM was observed, which could be caused by fluid sheer forces. MSCs cultured on both microgravity simulators showed decreased cell proliferation after 1-week culture. After 2-week culture, cells grown on the RPM showed no significant difference in cell proliferation compared with control while cells cultured on the Gravite bioreactor showed significantly enhanced MSC proliferation. Conclusion Type of microgravity simulator and duration of culture significantly affect MSC proliferation. Further investigation into how simulated microgravity influences MSC gene expression and cytokine secretion related to bone loss is currently on going in our lab.

Cuiping Zhang↗

Application of multiple input random and polyreference analysis techniques to the Galileo spacecraft modal test

An experimental modal analysis of the Galileo spacecraft was required to verify a finite element model used in loads analysis. Multiple input random and polyreference analysis techniques were applied in this program to demonstrate their effectiveness in determining the modal characteristics of a complex space structure. The methods were successful in determining an accurate set of modal data from two days of data acquisition. A complete set of results was available within 24 hours of test completion. Final analysis shows the modes from the multiple input random tests to be more complete and orthogonal than those obtained from classical sine dwell methods.

Chen, J. C.↗

Implementation of Leak Test Methods for the International Space Station (ISS) Elements, Systems and Components

The International Space Station (ISS has Qualification and Acceptance Environmental Test Requirements document, SSP 41172 that includes many environmental tests such as Thermal vacuum & Cycling, Depress/Repress, Sinusoidal, Random, and Acoustic Vibration, Pyro Shock, Acceleration, Humidity, Pressure, Electromatic Interference (EMI)/Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMCO), etc. This document also includes (13) leak test methods for Pressure Integrity Verification of the ISS Elements, Systems, and Components. These leak test methods are well known, however, the test procedure for specific leak test method shall be written and implemented paying attention to the important procedural steps/details that, if omitted or deviated, could impact the quality of the final product and affect the crew safety. Such procedural steps/details for different methods include, but not limited to: - Sequence of testing, f or example, pressurization and submersion steps for Method I (Immersion); - Stabilization of the mass spectrometer leak detector outputs fo r Method II (vacuum Chamber or Bell jar); - Proper data processing an d taking a conservative approach while making predictions for on-orbit leakage rate for Method III(Pressure Change); - Proper Calibration o f the mass spectrometer leak detector for all the tracer gas (mostly Helium) Methods such as Method V (Detector Probe), Method VI (Hood), Method VII (Tracer Probe), Method VIII(Accumulation); - Usage of visibl ility aides for Method I (Immersion), Method IV (Chemical Indicator), Method XII (Foam/Liquid Application), and Method XIII (Hydrostatic/Visual Inspection); While some methods could be used for the total leaka ge (either internal-to-external or external-to-internal) rate requirement verification (Vacuum Chamber, Pressure Decay, Hood, Accumulation), other methods shall be used only as a pass/fail test for individual joints (e.g., welds, fittings, and plugs) or for troubleshooting purposes (Chemical Indicator, Detector Probe, Tracer Probe, Local Vacuum Chamber, Foam/Liquid Application, and Hydrostatic/Visual Inspection). Any isolation of SSP 41172 requirements have led to either retesting of hardware or accepting a risk associated with the potential system or component pressure integrity problem during flight.

Underwood, Steve↗

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

Predicting protein functions from redundancies in large-scale protein interaction networks

Interpreting data from large-scale protein interaction experiments has been a challenging task because of the widespread presence of random false positives. Here, we present a network-based statistical algorithm that overcomes this difficulty and allows us to derive functions of unannotated proteins from large-scale interaction data. Our algorithm uses the insight that if two proteins share significantly larger number of common interaction partners than random, they have close functional associations. Analysis of publicly available data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals >2,800 reliable functional associations, 29% of which involve at least one unannotated protein. By further analyzing these associations, we derive tentative functions for 81 unannotated proteins with high certainty. Our method is not overly sensitive to the false positives present in the data. Even after adding 50% randomly generated interactions to the measured data set, we are able to recover almost all (approximately 89%) of the original associations.

Proteins/chemistry/metabolism↗

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Analysis of subpixel registration

The area of subpixel accuracy in image registration and edge detection was studied. Two main directions of research were pursued, edge detection and matching based on the digital geometry of edges, and random field models for probablistic analysis of registration error. In the edge detection approach, error bounds and error probabilities were computed using theoretical models. Algorithms were developed and tests on simulated imagery. The methods appear promising for high accuracy edge position estimation and registration, though further refinement of the procedures is required. Using random field models, a statistical measure of the quality of the cross correlation peak as an estimate of the offset between a sensed and a reference image was developed. Simulations were performed to determine the validity of this estimte with real imagery and to study the results of interpolating digital correlation functions to estimate the translation offset to subpixel accuracy.

Berenstein, C. A.↗

Evaluation of the procedure 1A component of the 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

Several techniques which use clusters generated by a new clustering algorithm, CLASSY, are proposed as alternatives to random sampling to obtain greater precision in crop proportion estimation: (1) Proportional Allocation/relative count estimator (PA/RCE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters on the basis of cluster size and a relative count cluster level estimate; (2) Proportional Allocation/Bayes Estimator (PA/BE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster-level estimate; and (3) Bayes Sequential Allocation/Bayesian Estimator (BSA/BE) uses sequential allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster level estimate. Clustering in an effective method in making proportion estimates. It is estimated that, to obtain the same precision with random sampling as obtained by the proportional sampling of 50 dots with an unbiased estimator, samples of 85 or 166 would need to be taken if dot sets with AI labels (integrated procedure) or ground truth labels, respectively were input. Dot reallocation provides dot sets that are unbiased. It is recommended that these proportion estimation techniques are maintained, particularly the PA/BE because it provides the greatest precision.

Chapman, G. M.↗

Regional Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor Exchange Over Heterogeneous Terrain

In spite of setbacks due to forest fires, eviction after a change of landowners and unanticipated need to upgrade and replace much of the instrumentation, substantial progress has been made during the past three years, resulting in major new findings. Although most of the results are in manuscript form, three papers have been published and a fourth was recently submitted. The data has been subjected to extensive quality control. Extra attention has been devoted to the influence of tilt rotation and flux-calculation method, particularly with respect to nocturnal fluxes. Previous/standard methods for calculating nocturnal fluxes with moderate and strong stability are inadequate and lead to large random fluxes errors for individual records, due partly to inadvertent inclusion of mesoscale motions that strongly contaminant the estimation of fluxes by weak turbulence. Such large errors are serious for process studies requiring carbon dioxide fluxes for individual records, but are substantially reduced when averaging fluxes over longer periods as in calculation of annual NEE budgets. We have employed a superior method for estimating fluxes in stable conditions with a variable averaging width . Mesoscale fluxes are generally unimportant except for events and are generally not systematic or predictable. Mesoscale or regional models of our region are not able to reproduce important aspects of the diurnally varying wind field

Mahrt, Larry J.↗

Probabilistic boundary element method

The purpose of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) project is to develop structural analysis capabilities for the design analysis of advanced space propulsion system hardware. The boundary element method (BEM) is used as the basis of the Probabilistic Advanced Analysis Methods (PADAM) which is discussed. The probabilistic BEM code (PBEM) is used to obtain the structural response and sensitivity results to a set of random variables. As such, PBEM performs analogous to other structural analysis codes such as finite elements in the PSAM system. For linear problems, unlike the finite element method (FEM), the BEM governing equations are written at the boundary of the body only, thus, the method eliminates the need to model the volume of the body. However, for general body force problems, a direct condensation of the governing equations to the boundary of the body is not possible and therefore volume modeling is generally required.

Cruse, T. A.↗

Dynamically stratified Monte Carlo forecasting

A new method for performing Monte Carlo forecasts is introduced. The method, called dynamic stratification, selects initial perturbations based on a stratification of the error distribution. A simple implementation is presented in which the error distribution used for the stratification is estimated from a linear model derived from a large ensemble of 12-h forecasts with the full dynamic model. The stratification thus obtained is used to choose a small subsample of initial states with which to perform the dynamical Monte Carlo forecasts. Several test cases are studied using a simple two-level general circulation model with uncertain initial conditions. It is found that the method provides substantial reductions in the sampling error of the forecast mean and variance when compared to the more traditional approach of choosing the initial perturbations at random. The degree of improvement, however, is sensitive to the nature of the initial error distribution and to the base state. In practice the method may be viable only if the computational burden involved in obtaining an adequate estimate of the error distribution is shared with the data-assimilation procedure.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Polarimetric radar data decomposition and interpretation

Significant efforts have been made to decompose polarimetric radar data into several simple scattering components. The components which are selected because of their physical significance can be used to classify SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) image data. If particular components can be related to forest parameters, inversion procedures may be developed to estimate these parameters from the scattering components. Several methods have been used to decompose an averaged Stoke's matrix or covariance matrix into three components representing odd (surface), even (double-bounce) and diffuse (volume) scatterings. With these decomposition techniques, phenomena, such as canopy-ground interactions, randomness of orientation, and size of scatters can be examined from SAR data. In this study we applied the method recently reported by van Zyl (1992) to decompose averaged backscattering covariance matrices extracted from JPL SAR images over forest stands in Maine, USA. These stands are mostly mixed stands of coniferous and deciduous trees. Biomass data have been derived from field measurements of DBH and tree density using allometric equations. The interpretation of the decompositions and relationships with measured stand biomass are presented in this paper.

Sun, Guoqing↗

A study of high density bit transition requirements versus the effects on BCH error correcting coding

Several methods for increasing bit transition densities in a data stream are summarized, discussed in detail, and compared against constraints imposed by the 2 MHz data link of the space shuttle high rate multiplexer unit. These methods include use of alternate pulse code modulation waveforms, data stream modification by insertion, alternate bit inversion, differential encoding, error encoding, and use of bit scramblers. The psuedo-random cover sequence generator was chosen for application to the 2 MHz data link of the space shuttle high rate multiplexer unit. This method is fully analyzed and a design implementation proposed.

Ingels, F.↗

The use of coherence functions to determine dynamic excitation sources on launch vehicle payloads

The problem of determining the relative contribution of simultaneous acoustic and mechanical inputs to the response of structures under combined dynamic loads was studied. An analytical technique developed by Bendat for calculating ordinary, partial, and multiple coherence functions, using an iterative nonmatrix approach was applied to data obtained from laboratory tests on a complex structural assembly. Testing was performed in an acoustically 'live' room. Up to three random inputs, having similar spectral content and varying degrees of mutual coherence, and a single output were used. Stationary and nonstationary inputs were used. It was concluded that the technique provided an effective method of identifying sources of dynamic excitation and evaluating their relative contributions to the measured output at structural resonances, for stationary random inputs. An attempt to apply the technique to nonstationary inputs did not yield consistent results.

Barrett, S.↗