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At least 595 records · Page 33

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

High pressure chemical reactivity and structural study of the Na–P and Li–P systems

In this work, the Na–P and Li–P chemical systems were studied under pressure using synchrotron X-ray diffraction in a diamond anvil cell up to 20 GPa, combined with the AIRSS ab initio random structure searching technique. The results reveal an enhanced reactivity of both alkali metals with phosphorous at slightly elevated pressures. This enables the synthesis of Li 3 P and Na 3 P at room temperature (RT) starting from element precursors, bypassing the established chemical synthesis methods. Both compounds undergo a pressure-induced phase transition from the hexagonal Na 3 As-type structure (stable at ambient conditions) towards a Fm m (FCC) structure that remains stable up to 20 GPa. Attempts to synthesize compounds with higher alkali metal content (such as Li 5 P) using high-temperature and -pressure conditions (up to 2000+ K and 30 GPa), inspired by recent theoretical predictions, were not successful.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Direct estimation of the density of states for fermionic systems

Simulating time evolution is one of the most natural applications of quantum computers and is thus one of the most promising prospects for achieving practical quantum advantage. Here, we develop quantum algorithms to extract thermodynamic properties by estimating the density of states (DOS), which is a central object in quantum statistical mechanics. We introduce several key innovations that significantly improve the practicality and extend the generality of previous techniques. First, our approach allows one to estimate the DOS only for a specific subspace of the full Hilbert space. This is crucial for fermionic systems, since both canonical and grand canonical ensemble thermal equilibrium properties depend on subspaces of fixed number. Second, in our approach, by time evolving very simple, random initial states, such as randomly chosen computational basis states, we can exactly recover the DOS on average. Third, due to circuit-depth limitations, we only reconstruct the DOS up to a convolution with a Gaussian window—thus all imperfections that shift the energy levels by less than the width of the convolution window will not significantly affect the estimated DOS. For these reasons, we find the approach is a promising candidate for early quantum advantage as even short-time, noisy dynamics can yield a semiquantitative reconstruction of the DOS (convolution with a broad Gaussian window), while early fault-tolerant devices will likely enable higher-resolution DOS reconstruction through longer time evolutions. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach in representative Fermi-Hubbard and spin models and indeed find that our approach is highly robust against algorithmic errors in the time evolution and against gate noise. We further demonstrate that our approach is compatible with noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computing NISQ-friendly variational techniques, introducing and leveraging a technique for variational time evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effective pair potential for random fcc CoCrFeMnNi alloys

The single-phase equiatomic CoCrFeMnNi alloy is a random solid solution of five elements on the face-centered cubic lattice, whose pure constituents crystallize in very different structures and exhibit diverse magnetic properties. Due to the randomness of the alloy, 80% of nearest neighbor bonds are between unlike elements and thus the details of bonding in pure structures are less important. The elastic moduli of this alloy give rise to small Cauchy pressure C 12 - C 44 , which suggests that the dominant part of bonding may be described by a simple pair potential. We test this hypothesis by developing a long-range Lennard-Jones potential in which the equilibrium crystal structures of pure constituents are taken as reference. The standard mixing rules for regular solutions are then adopted to obtain parameters for bonds between unlike elements in the quinary system. The transferability of this potential to quaternary CoCrFeNi, ternary CoCrNi, and binary FeNi alloys is investigated and the predictions compared with experiments and density functional theory calculations. By sampling over a large number of random configurations, we investigate the effect of compositional randomness on misfit volumes, energies of point defects and stacking faults, and the dislocation friction stresses experienced by moving edge and screw dislocations.

Materials Science↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-tlie-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

CTT: Tools for Fine Alignment of Flash X-ray Systems

The CTT code is a compilation of the python code that was prototyped in the interest of making a method for fine alignment of Flash X-ray Systems at the lab. It contains python code for interacting with LTT and running optimization loops using LTT simulations or ray tracing with RaySpace. It Includes classes for creating phantom objects and modular geometry objects in the simulations. It allows one to generate a random phantom that has been optimized to stay with a certain cubic volume and maximize the minimum distance between any two ball phantom centers in all projections. It was primarily made to work on ball phantoms which were simulated as Teflon spheres. It allows the alignment from some nominal position to some displaced position to simulate recovery of a real geometry from the nominal geometry of the system. Fine alignment can be done with the projections in LTT while a rough alignment is faster using rayspace. If rayspace works well for the use case it should be preferred since it is considerably faster and less resource intensive in general. Some Notes about using this code is that one will have to edit the imports for the files to get to the correct LTT path, LTT GUI path and to the CTT path when importing. This was made by using anaconda with python 3 on windows 10. The LTT code was stored in a anaconda environment which seemed to help the python find the LTT although it shouldn’t be necessary if you append the path in your code using sys.path.append(r'add the path you want here’). The sys.path.append method is a quick way to give your python code access to a given folder when running it (such as LTT or CTT). Note that since the code was originally made with paths for a specific machine that a new user will have to edit those paths to make it work in all the files that use the old paths. This is somewhat tedious but will be required to run the code on a new machine. The methodology used to run and make these notebooks starts with opening a command prompt as administrator in windows 10. After this one would activate the anaconda environment in the appropriate directory using “conda activate myenv” in the command prompt. After this open a jupyter-notebook using the keyword “jupyter-notebook". After that a notebook should open in a browser. Note that some libraries used may not come with anaconda so those may have to be installed. There shouldn’t be much though since the main things used are scipy, numpy, matplotlib, and LTT. LTTQuicksetup also requires some paths that will be specific to the computer so that should be changed as well.

42 ENGINEERING↗

System and method for x-ray compatible 2D streak camera for a snapshot multiframe imager

The present disclosure is directed to a snapshot multiframe imager having an aperture element having at least one aperture, an adjacently positioned random mask, an imaging element and a computer. The random mask has a plurality of micron scale apertures and receives light passing through the aperture element, which represents the spatial information from the scene being imaged, and generates a plurality of image frames encoded in a spatial domain. The imaging element may operate in a drift-scan mode receives the encoded image frames and generates a streaked pattern of electrons representing a plurality of images of the scene at a plurality of different times. The computer analyzes the streaked pattern of electrons and mathematically reconstructs the plurality of images.

Dayton, Matthew S.↗

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A computational study of how surfaces affect slip family activity

Plastic deformation behavior is most conveniently assessed by characterization on a surface, but whether such observations are representative of bulk properties is uncertain. Motivated by reported inconsistencies in slip resistance probed at different depths, we investigated (i) whether the average slip family activity is affected by the presence of a surface and (ii) how the kinematic nature of available slip families influences a potential surface effect. The slip family activity as a function of distance from the surface was extracted from full-field crystal plasticity simulations of random polycrystalline hexagonal close-packed (HCP) and body-centered cubic (BCC) metals as examples of mixed in contrast to universally-high numbers of slip systems per family. Under certain conditions, a deviation from bulk slip activity is observed up to about two grains from the surface. For the easiest (least slip-resistant) family, a surface effect of decreasing activity with depth emerges if the number of slip systems falls below about six. For harder families, slip activity always increases with depth. Furthermore, these phenomena are explained on the basis of varying constraints with depth in connection with the kinematic properties of slip families in the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Explosive nucleation and growth of Pb islands on Ge(111) below room temperature via collective diffusion

Nucleation is a fundamental process in nature controlling phase transitions and pattern formation. Classical nucleation is based on the gradual aggregation of diffusing atoms after a critical cluster size is reached. Contrary to these expectations, we have observed in real time the formation of perfect Pb(111) islands with more than 10 5 atoms emerging out of the compressed wetting layer within a few seconds during growth of Pb on Ge(111) below room temperature. Pb deposited on Ge(111) in a temperature range between −30 °C and 10 °C exhibited explosive nucleation of height-selected islands upon reaching a critical coverage of 1.33 ± 0.07 ML with respect to Ge(111). Island nucleation was fueled by the 2% compression of the Pb wetting layer at the critical coverage. The island areas grew linearly with time, exhibiting collective diffusion, where thousands of atoms follow correlated, non-random walk diffusion. The total growth rate was higher with increasing temperature. Density functional theory simulations of the chemical potential and binding sites of the Pb/Ge(111) system give insight into the role of the compression of the wetting layer and the strain within the growing Pb layers, which explain this nonclassical behavior of the system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dispersive interactions between standard and Dirac materials and the role of dimensionality

The van der Waals (vdW) interaction plays a prominent role between neutral objects at separations where short ranged chemical forces are negligible. This type of dispersive coupling is determined by the interplay between geometry and response properties of the materials making up the objects. Here, we investigate the vdW interaction between 1D, 2D, and 3D standard and Dirac materials within the Random Phase Approximation, which takes into account collective excitations originating from the electronic Coulomb potential. A comprehensive understanding of characteristic functionalities and scaling laws are obtained for systems with parabolic energy dispersion (standard materials) and crossing linear bands (Dirac materials). By comparing the quantum mechanical and thermal limits the onset of thermal fluctuations in the vdW interaction is discussed showing that thermal effects are significantly pronounced at smaller scales in reduced dimensions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Blazar variability power spectra from radio up to TeV photon energies: Mrk 421 and PKS 2155−304

ABSTRACT We present the results of the power spectral density (PSD) analysis for the blazars Mrk 421 and PKS 2155−304, using good-quality, densely sampled light curves at multiple frequencies, covering 17 decades of the electromagnetic spectrum, and variability time-scales from weeks up to a decade. The data were collected from publicly available archives of observatories at radio from Owens Valley Radio Observatory, optical and infrared (B, V, R, I, J, H, and Kbands), X-rays from the Swift and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer, high and very high energy (VHE) γ-rays from the Fermi and Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System as well as the High Energy Stereoscopic System. Our results are: (1) the power-law form of the variability power spectra at radio, infrared, and optical frequencies have slopes ∼1.8, indicative of random-walk-type noise processes; (2) the power-law form of the variability power spectra at higher frequencies, from X-rays to VHE γ-rays, however, have slopes ∼1.2, suggesting a flicker noise-type process; and (3) there is significantly more variability power at X-rays, high and VHE γ-rays on time-scales ≲ 100 d, as compared to lower energies. Our results do not easily fit into a simple model, in which a single compact emission zone is dominating the radiative output of the blazars across all the time-scales probed in our analysis. Instead, we argue that the frequency-dependent shape of the variability power spectra points out a more complex picture, with highly inhomogeneous outflow producing non-thermal emission over an extended, stratified volume.

Goyal, Arti↗

Theory of the phase transition in random unitary circuits with measurements

Here, we present a theory of the entanglement transition tuned by measurement strength in qudit chains evolved by random unitary circuits and subject to either weak or random projective measurements. The transition can be understood as a nonanalytic change in the amount of information extracted by the measurements about the initial state of the system, quantified by the Fisher information. To compute the von Neumann entanglement entropy $\textit{S}$ and the Fisher information $\mathcal{F}$, we apply a replica method based on a sequence of quantities $\tilde{S}^{(n)}$ and $\mathcal{F}^{(n)}$ that depend on the $\textit{n}$th moments of density matrices and reduce to $\textit{S}$ and $\mathcal{F}$ in the limit $\textit{n}$ → 1. These quantities with $\textit{n}$ ≥ 2 are mapped to free energies of a classical spin model with $\textit{n}$! internal states in two dimensions with specific boundary conditions. In particular, $\tilde{S}^{(n)}$ is the excess free energy of a domain wall terminating on the top boundary, and $\mathcal{F}^{(n)}$ is related to the magnetization on the bottom boundary. Phase transitions occur as the spin models undergo ordering transitions in the bulk. Taking the limit of large local Hilbert space dimension $\textit{q}$ followed by the replica limit $\textit{n}$ → 1, we obtain the critical measurement probability $p_c$ = 1/2 and identify the transition as a bond percolation in the 2D square lattice in this limit. Finally, we show there is no phase transition if the measurements are allowed in an arbitrary nonlocal basis, thereby highlighting the relation between the phase transition and information scrambling. We establish an explicit connection between the entanglement phase transition and the purification dynamics of a mixed state evolution and discuss implications of our results to experimental observations of the transition and simulability of quantum dynamics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Nonlinear dynamics, avalanches, and noise for driven Wigner crystals

Here we consider the driven dynamics of Wigner crystals interacting with random disorder. Using numerical simulations, we find a rich variety of transport phenomena as a function of charge density, drive, and pinning strength. For weak pinning, the system forms a defect-free crystal that depins elastically. When the pinning is stronger, a pinned glass phase appears that depins into a filamentary flow state, transitions at higher drives into a disordered flow phase, and finally forms a moving smectic. Within the filamentary flow phase, the conduction curves can show switching dynamics as well as negative differential conductivity in which switching events cause some flow channels to be blocked. The velocity noise in the filamentary flow regime exhibits narrow band characteristics due to the one-dimensional nature of the motion, while the moving smectic has narrow band velocity noise with a washboard frequency. In the disordered flow state, the noise power reaches a peak value and the noise has a 1/$\mathcal{f}$ character. Our transport results are consistent with recent experimental transport studies in systems where Wigner crystal states are believed to be occurring. Below the conduction threshold, we find that avalanches with a power-law size distribution appear when there are sudden local rearrangements of charges from one pinned configuration to another.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗