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At least 595 records · Page 33

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗

Adiabatic and nonadiabatic processes in thermal models of solar hard X-ray bursts

The temporal evolution of thermal-bremsstrahlung-emitting material at the top of a solar coronal loop under various processes is examined as a model of solar hard X-ray bursts. The behavior of emission measure and temperature with time is analyzed for the hot plasma confined in a segment at the top of a loop, taking into account the effects or the time variation of the confining toroidal magnetic field, the longitudinal expansion of the source through the motion of a pair of collisionless conduction fronts and unspecified heating or cooling processes. Analytic expressions for the behavior of the toroidal magnetic field and the heating rate necessary to reproduce a given behavior of emission measure and temperature with time are obtained in terms of the initial magnetic field strength and density of the heated region and a characteristic longitudinal expansion time. Results are applied to observations of two impulsive solar hard X-ray bursts, and it is shown that the contribution of heating is negligible after the first few seconds of the events, although significant nonadiabatic heating occurs early in the events.

Emslie, A. G.↗

A model for the prediction of latent errors using data obtained during the development process

A model implemented in a program that runs on the IBM PC for estimating the latent (or post ship) content of a body of software upon its initial release to the user is presented. The model employs the count of errors discovered at one or more of the error discovery processes during development, such as a design inspection, as the input data for a process which provides estimates of the total life-time (injected) error content and of the latent (or post ship) error content--the errors remaining a delivery. The model presented presumes that these activities cover all of the opportunities during the software development process for error discovery (and removal).

Gaffney, J. E., Jr.↗

Landform Evolution Modeling of Sedimentary Processes on Icy Worlds: the Cases of Hyperion and Helene

Sedimentary activity (erosion, transportation and deposition) is a major landscape-shaping process on many icy worlds of the outer solar system for which an understanding of this process is central to their geologic characterizations. Several recent studies, lead by the authors, have identified the effects of sedimentary activity on icy satellite landforms and recognized the role of mass wasting and volatile loss and redistribution in the evolution of these features. We apply state of the art, physics based, landform evolution modeling to icy satellite sedimentary landforms in order to fully quantitatively characterize how their morphologies change with time, and what their present appearances imply for the initial abundance and distribution of loose material, volatiles, and refractories in original pristine landforms. We will present results of our landform evolution modeling to the development of the landscapes of the Saturnian moons of Hyperion and Helene. Our current conclusions for Hyperion are that its unique appearance can be explained in part by the loss to space of ballistic ejecta during impact events. In order to create the smooth surfaces and the reticulate, honeycomb pattern of narrow divides between old craters, appreciable subsequent modification of crater morphology must occur through mass-wasting processes accompanied by sublimation, probably facilitated by the loss of CO2 as a component of the relief-supporting matrix of the bedrock. This mass wasting effectively destroys small craters, at least in part accounting for the paucity of sub-kilometer craters on Hyperion. Helene’s unusual morphology consists of broad depressions (modified large craters) and a generally smooth surface patterned with streaks and grooves. The streaks appear to be oriented down-gradient, as are the grooves. This pattern suggests intensive mass-wasting as a dominant process. Our initial modeling of this surface suggests a Bingham-like rheological behavior for the loose down-slope moving material. Interestingly, as a Bingham flow, the models indicate that aperiodic "intermittent" behavior to be present, suggesting that periods of quiet steady landform evolution are punctuated short periods of active surface readjustment.

Saturnian moons↗

Trash Compaction and Processing System Trash Models and Evolved Gas Analysis of Trash Components

As part of the NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) Trash Compaction and Processing System (TCPS) program, the Generation 2 (Gen 2) Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) tests a variety of trash models (nominal, high liquid, and high cloth) in order to evaluate the technical risk associated with processing spacecraft trash. The trash components used in the trash models not only impacts the final solid trash disk quality, but also the water and gas effluent compositions. In order to better design an auxiliary system to treat the effluent streams, both the input trash components and the effluent must be characterized. Evolved gas analysis (EGA) methods are used to characterize the input trash components. The EGA results will be used to determine various HMC operational parameters, as well as to determine the optimal operation for the TCPS system.

Heat Melt Compactor↗

Computational Modeling in Structural Materials Processing

High temperature materials such as silicon carbide, a variety of nitrides, and ceramic matrix composites find use in aerospace, automotive, machine tool industries and in high speed civil transport applications. Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is widely used in processing such structural materials. Variations of CVD include deposition on substrates, coating of fibers, inside cavities and on complex objects, and infiltration within preforms called chemical vapor infiltration (CVI). Our current knowledge of the process mechanisms, ability to optimize processes, and scale-up for large scale manufacturing is limited. In this regard, computational modeling of the processes is valuable since a validated model can be used as a design tool. The effort is similar to traditional chemically reacting flow modeling with emphasis on multicomponent diffusion, thermal diffusion, large sets of homogeneous reactions, and surface chemistry. In the case of CVI, models for pore infiltration are needed. In the present talk, examples of SiC nitride, and Boron deposition from the author's past work will be used to illustrate the utility of computational process modeling.

Meyyappan, Meyya↗

Modeling of membrane processes for air revitalization and water recovery

Gas-separation and reverse-osmosis membrane models are being developed in conjunction with membrane testing at NASA JSC. The completed gas-separation membrane model extracts effective component permeabilities from multicomponent test data, and predicts the effects of flow configuration, operating conditions, and membrane dimensions on module performance. Variable feed- and permeate-side pressures are considered. The model has been applied to test data for hollow-fiber membrane modules with simulated cabin-air feeds. Results are presented for a membrane designed for air drying applications. Extracted permeabilities are used to predict the effect of operating conditions on water enrichment in the permeate. A first-order reverse-osmosis model has been applied to test data for spiral wound membrane modules with a simulated hygiene water feed. The model estimates an effective local component rejection coefficient under pseudosteady-state conditions. Results are used to define requirements for a detailed reverse-osmosis model.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Information processing

Theoretical models of sensory-information processing by the human brain are reviewed from a human-factors perspective, with a focus on their implications for aircraft and avionics design. The topics addressed include perception (signal detection and selection), linguistic factors in perception (context provision, logical reversals, absence of cues, and order reversals), mental models, and working and long-term memory. Particular attention is given to decision-making problems such as situation assessment, decision formulation, decision quality, selection of action, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, stimulus-response compatibility, stimulus sequencing, dual-task performance, task difficulty and structure, and factors affecting multiple task performance (processing modalities, codes, and stages).

Wickens, Christopher D.↗

Reinventing the Design Process: Teams and Models

The future of space mission designing will be dramatically different from the past. Formerly, performance-driven paradigms emphasized data return with cost and schedule being secondary issues.

Design↗

Leaf optical system modeled as a stochastic process

A stochastic leaf radiation model based upon physical and physiological properties of dicot leaves has been developed. The model accurately predicts the absorbed, reflected, and transmitted radiation of normal incidence as a function of wavelength resulting from the leaf-irradiance interaction over the spectral interval of 0.40-2.50 micron. The leaf optical system has been represented as Markov process with a unique transition matrix at each 0.01-micron increment between 0.40 micron and 2.50 micron. Probabilities are calculated at every wavelength interval from leaf thickness, structure, pigment composition, and water content. Simulation results indicate that this approach gives accurate estimations of actual measured values for dicot leaf absorption, reflection, and transmission as a function of wavelength.

Tucker, C. J.↗

A SLAM II simulation model for analyzing space station mission processing requirements

Space station mission processing is modeled via the SLAM 2 simulation language on an IBM 4381 mainframe and an IBM PC microcomputer with 620K RAM, two double-sided disk drives and an 8087 coprocessor chip. Using a time phased mission (payload) schedule and parameters associated with the mission, orbiter (space shuttle) and ground facility databases, estimates for ground facility utilization are computed. Simulation output associated with the science and applications database is used to assess alternative mission schedules.

Linton, D. G.↗

Dawn Orbit Determination Team: Trajectory Modeling and Reconstruction Processes at Vesta

The Dawn spacecraft spent over a year in orbit around Vesta from July 2011 through August 2012. In order to maintain the designated science reference orbits and enable the transfers between those orbits, precise and timely orbit determination was required. Challenges included low-thrust ion propulsion modeling, estimation of relatively unknown Vesta gravity and rotation models, track-ing data limitations, incorporation of real-time telemetry into dynamics model updates, and rapid maneuver design cycles during transfers. This paper discusses the dynamics models, filter configuration, and data processing implemented to deliver a rapid orbit determination capability to the Dawn project.

low thrust↗

Multiscale Modeling of Damage Processes in Aluminum Alloys: Grain-Scale Mechanisms

This paper has two goals related to the development of a physically-grounded methodology for modeling the initial stages of fatigue crack growth in an aluminum alloy. The aluminum alloy, AA 7075-T651, is susceptible to fatigue cracking that nucleates from cracked second phase iron-bearing particles. Thus, the first goal of the paper is to validate an existing framework for the prediction of the conditions under which the particles crack. The observed statistics of particle cracking (defined as incubation for this alloy) must be accurately predicted to simulate the stochastic nature of microstructurally small fatigue crack (MSFC) formation. Also, only by simulating incubation of damage in a statistically accurate manner can subsequent stages of crack growth be accurately predicted. To maintain fidelity and computational efficiency, a filtering procedure was developed to eliminate particles that were unlikely to crack. The particle filter considers the distributions of particle sizes and shapes, grain texture, and the configuration of the surrounding grains. This filter helps substantially reduce the number of particles that need to be included in the microstructural models and forms the basis of the future work on the subsequent stages of MSFC, crack nucleation and microstructurally small crack propagation. A physics-based approach to simulating fracture should ultimately begin at nanometer length scale, in which atomistic simulation is used to predict the fundamental damage mechanisms of MSFC. These mechanisms include dislocation formation and interaction, interstitial void formation, and atomic diffusion. However, atomistic simulations quickly become computationally intractable as the system size increases, especially when directly linking to the already large microstructural models. Therefore, the second goal of this paper is to propose a method that will incorporate atomistic simulation and small-scale experimental characterization into the existing multiscale framework. At the microscale, the nanoscale mechanics are represented within cohesive zones where appropriate, i.e. where the mechanics observed at the nanoscale can be represented as occurring on a plane such as at grain boundaries or slip planes at a crack front. Important advancements that are yet to be made include: 1. an increased fidelity in cohesive zone modeling; 2. a means to understand how atomistic simulation scales with time; 3. a new experimental methodology for generating empirical models for CZMs and emerging materials; and 4. a validation of simulations of the damage processes at the nano-micro scale. With ever-increasing computer power, the long-term ability to employ atomistic simulation for the prognosis of structural components will not be limited by computation power, but by our lack of knowledge in incorporating atomistic models into simulations of MSFC into a multiscale framework.

Hochhalter, J. D.↗

Current status of droplet and liquid combustion

The present understanding of spray combustion in rocket engine, gas turbine, Diesel engine and industrial furnace applications is reviewed. In some cases, spray combustion can be modeled by ignoring the details of spray evaporation and treating the system in the same manner as a gaseous diffusion flame; however, in many circumstances, this type of simplification is not adequate and the turbulent two-phase flow must be considered. The behavior of individual droplets is a necessary component of two-phase models and recent work on transient droplet evaporation, ignition and combustion is considered, along with a discussion of important simplifying assumptions involved with modeling these processes. Methods of modeling spray evaporation and combustion processes are also discussed including: one-dimensional models for rocket engine and prevaporized combustion systems, lumped zone models (utilizing well-stirred reactor and plug flow regions) for gas turbine and furnace systems, locally homogeneous turbulent models, and two-phase models. The review highlights the need for improved injector characterization methods, more information of droplet transport characteristics in turbulent flow and continued development of more complete two-phase turbulent models.

Faeth, G. M.↗

Current status of droplet and liquid combustion

The present understanding of spray combustion in rocket engine, gas turbine, Diesel engine and industrial furnace applications is reviewed. In some cases, spray combustion can be modeled by ignoring the details of spray evaporation and treating the system as a gaseous diffusion flame; however, in many circumstances, this simplification is not adequate and turbulent two-phase flow must be considered. The behavior of individual droplets is a necessary component of two-phase models and recent work on transient droplet evaporation, ignition and combustion is considered, along with a discussion of important simplifying assumptions involved with modeling these processes. Methods of modeling spray evaporation and combustion processes are also discussed including: one-dimensional models for rocket engine and prevaporized combustion systems, lumped zone models (utilizing well-stirred reactor and plug flow regions) for gas turbine and furnace systems, locally homogeneous turbulent models, and two-phase models. The review highlights the need for improved injector characterization methods, more information of droplet transport characteristics in turbulent flow and continued development of more complete two-phase turbulent models

Faeth, G. M.↗

A Software Development Simulation Model of a Spiral Process

There is a need for simulation models of software development processes other than the waterfall because processes such as spiral development are becoming more and more popular. The use of a spiral process can make the inherently difficult job of cost and schedule estimation even more challenging due to its evolutionary nature, but this allows for a more flexible process that can better meet customers' needs. This paper will present a discrete event simulation model of spiral development that can be used to analyze cost and schedule effects of using such a process in comparison to a waterfall process.

Mizell, Carolyn↗

Testing and Analytical Modeling for Purging Process of a Cryogenic Line

The purging operations for cryogenic main propulsion systems of upper stage are usually carried out for the following cases: 1) Purging of the Fill/Drain line after completion of propellant loading. This operation allows the removal of residual propellant mass; and 2) Purging of the Feed/Drain line if the mission is scrubbed. The lines would be purged by connections to a ground high-pressure gas storage source. The flowrate of purge gas should be regulated such that the pressure in the line will not exceed the required maximum allowable value. Exceeding the maximum allowable pressure may lead to structural damage in the line. To gain confidence in analytical models of the purge process, a test series was conducted. The test article, a 20-cm incline line, was filled with liquid hydrogen and then purged with gaseous helium (GHe). The influences of GHe flowrates and initial temperatures were evaluated. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, an in-house general-purpose computer program for flow network analysis, was utilized to model and simulate the testing. The test procedures, modeling descriptions, and the results will be presented in the final paper.

Hedayat, A.↗