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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Parametric Model of Shoulder Articulation for Virtual Assessment of Space Suit Fit

Suboptimal suit fit is a known risk factor for crewmember shoulder injury. Suit fit assessment is however prohibitively time consuming and cannot be generalized across wide variations of body shapes and poses. In this work, we have developed a new design tool based on the statistical analysis of body shape scans. This tool is aimed at predicting the skin deformation and shape variations for any body size and shoulder pose for a target population. This new process, when incorporated with CAD software, will enable virtual suit fit assessments, predictively quantifying the contact volume, and clearance between the suit and body surface at reduced time and cost.

Kim, K. Han↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Manufacturing Quality Management Principles to PV System Installations

To help SETO/DOE achieve its goals, the IBTS team proposed a project addressing system reliability by improving installation standards and quality management. The proposed approach was designed to help achieve measurable reductions in installation defect density and improvements in the performance of PV systems by optimizing design and installation of residential and commercial PV systems. This approach addressed the soft costs associated with installations and quality management. The project demonstrated improved system reliability and reduced PV system installation costs. The software developed improved operations, decreased risk, and increased the overall value of PV systems across their lifecycle. The project used several data collection methods, including extensive industry surveys, face-to-face high-level interviews at industry conferences, stakeholder teleconferences, and in-depth interviews conducted by IBTS staff. Results from the research found the industry needs a uniform assessment method for national providers to be more efficient; the software should support both code officials and installers; most industry stakeholders would find value in a centralized software system that allows them to collect, report, and review information on in-process and completed solar installations; and mobile solutions that bridge existing knowledge gaps with inspectors and integrate with existing methodologies (such as permitting software) are of great value. The software solution developed is web-based, allowing for national access, and is built on a Google Firebase platform that can handle significant users and data. It can be used onsite or remotely, allowing for code compliance to continue despite ongoing pandemic related delays or shutdowns for local economies. The information provided by the software tool allows users to uniformly assess a system for compliance and use that aggregated data to identify training topics or create internal process designed to improving issues and reducing occurrence. This solution has multiple benefits in managing quality at time of use and promoting an increase in future safety and quality through education. Perhaps most importantly, this software increases public safety by ensuring compliance of installed systems and allows for local AHJs to remotely engage specialized and qualified solar specific expertise for oversite of the installation in their jurisdictions. Data analysis provides the quality feedback loop identifying the root cause of failure and drives installation practices to improve through training and education, resulting in systems with higher performance, greater reliability, and reduced operations and maintenance costs. With the successful completion of this project, the industry can expect reduced soft costs and increased performance and safety and will ultimately benefit from longer performing systems that cost less to operate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of Aeroservoelastic Effects on Flutter

The HSCT Flight Controls Group is developing a longitudinal control law, known as Gamma-dot / V, for the NASA HSR program. Currently, this control law is based on a quasi-steady aeroelastic (QSAE) model of the vehicle. This control law was implemented into the p-k flutter analysis process for closed loop aeroservoelastic analysis. The available flexible models, developed for the TCA aeroelastic analysis, were used to assess the effect of control laws on flutter at several different Mach numbers and mass conditions. Significant structures and flight control system interaction was observed during the initial assessment. Figures 1 and 2 present a summary of the effect of total closed loop gain and phase on flutter mechanisms, based on ideal sensors and real sensors, for Mach 0.95 and mass M02 condition. Control laws based on ideal sensors gave rise to increased coupling between the rigid body short period mode and the first symmetric elastic mode. This reduced the stability margins for the first elastic mode and does not meet the required 6 dB gain margin requirement. The effect of "real" sensors significantly increased the structures and control system interactions. This caused the elastic,modes to be highly unstable throughout most of the flight envelope. State-space models were developed for several conditions and then MATLAB program was used for the aeroservoelastic stability analysis. These results provided an independent verification of the p-k flutter analysis findings. Good overall agreement was observed between the p-k flutter analysis and state-space model results for both damping and frequency comparisons. These results are also included in this document.

Nagaraja, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Universal Threshold for the Assessment of Load and Output Residuals of Strain-Gage Balance Data

A new universal residual threshold for the detection of load and gage output residual outliers of wind tunnel strain{gage balance data was developed. The threshold works with both the Iterative and Non{Iterative Methods that are used in the aerospace testing community to analyze and process balance data. It also supports all known load and gage output formats that are traditionally used to describe balance data. The threshold's definition is based on an empirical electrical constant. First, the constant is used to construct a threshold for the assessment of gage output residuals. Then, the related threshold for the assessment of load residuals is obtained by multiplying the empirical electrical constant with the sum of the absolute values of all first partial derivatives of a given load component. The empirical constant equals 2.5 microV/V for the assessment of balance calibration or check load data residuals. A value of 0.5 microV/V is recommended for the evaluation of repeat point residuals because, by design, the calculation of these residuals removes errors that are associated with the regression analysis of the data itself. Data from a calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new threshold definitions to real{world balance calibration data.

wind tunnel balance↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Comprehensive Characterization of Microorganisms and Allergens in Spacecraft Environment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during long-duration missions is composed of several factors including (1) the host#s susceptibility, (2) the host#s exposure to the infectious disease agent, and (3) the concentration of the infectious agent, and (4) the characteristics of the infectious agent. While stringent steps are taken to minimize the transfer of potential pathogens to spacecraft, several medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. Thus, several pathogens may not have been detected, such as Legionella pneumophila, the etiological agent of Legionnaire#s disease. We hypothesize that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies will reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. The development of techniques for this flight experiment, operationally named SWAB, has already provided advances in NASA laboratory processes and beneficial information toward human health risk assessment. The first accomplishment of the SWAB experiment was the incorporation of 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing for the identification of bacteria. The use of this molecular technique has increased bacterial speciation of environmental isolates from previous flights three fold compared to conventional methodology. This increased efficiency in bacterial speciation provides a better understanding of the microbial ecology and the potential risk to the crew. Additional SWAB studies focused on the use of molecular-based DNA fingerprinting using repetitive sequencebased polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR). This technology has allowed contamination tracking of microorganisms between crewmembers and their environment. This study not only demonstrated that ISS has a greater diversity of organisms than originally expected, but also provided insight into possible routes of infection to the crew. Additional ground-based studies used rep-PCR and protein based assays to determine the potential of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) aboard ISS. MRSA has become increasingly common on Earth and pose a treatment problem for infections during flight. While no MRSA have been isolated from ISS to date, the mecA gene product that is responsible for methicillin resistance was isolated in other Staphylococcus species aboard ISS suggesting a potential of MRSA through gene transfer. Using improved sample collection technologies, flight sampling for SWAB was initiated in August 2006 and should continue through spring of 2007. The focus of these flight samples is the collection of DNA for evaluation by Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE). Unlike other techniques, DGGE does not depend on any microbial growth on culture media allowing a more comprehensive assessment of the spacecraft interior. This study should provide insight into the true microbial ecology that is experienced by the crew during flight. This information will lead toward an accurate microbial risk assessment to help set flight requirements to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

DOE OSTI2024

MR&R Strategic Investments Review: OREATE (Oxide Reduction by Electrochemical Amalgamation and Thermal Extraction) [Slides]

The goal of this project is to develop a new process for metal recovery and recycle based on OREATE (Oxide Reduction by Electrochemical Amalgamation and Thermal Extraction). OREATE will be able to efficiently transform PuO 2 into metal (e.g., Pu-242) as well as recover and recycle actinide and rare earth metals after chlorination. The main objectives for FY24 are to complete the TRL assessment of the OREATE process and to achieve a throughput increase, transitioning from mg to gram quantities of metal.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Models: Methodologies, Applications, and New Directions

As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in use, the community has moved beyond simple model intercomparison and toward developing methods capable of benchmarking a large number of simulations against a suite of climate metrics. Here, we present a detailed review of evaluation and benchmarking methods and approaches developed in the last decade, focusing primarily on scientific implications for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations and CMIP6 results that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Based on this review, we explain the resulting contemporary philosophy of model benchmarking, and provide clear distinctions and definitions of the terms model verification, process validation, evaluation, and benchmarking. While significant progress has been made in model development based on systematic evaluation and benchmarking efforts, some climate system biases still remain. The development of open‐source community software packages has played a fundamental role in identifying areas of significant model improvement and bias reduction. We review the key features of several software packages that have been commonly used over the past decade to evaluate and benchmark global and regional climate models. Additionally, we discuss best practices for the selection of evaluation and benchmarking metrics and for interpreting the obtained results, the importance of selecting suitable sources of reference data and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Template-independent enzymatic synthesis of RNA oligonucleotides

Abstract RNA oligonucleotides have emerged as a powerful therapeutic modality to treat disease, yet current manufacturing methods may not be able to deliver on anticipated future demand. Here, we report the development and optimization of an aqueous-based, template-independent enzymatic RNA oligonucleotide synthesis platform as an alternative to traditional chemical methods. The enzymatic synthesis of RNA oligonucleotides is made possible by controlled incorporation of reversible terminator nucleotides with a common 3′-O-allyl ether blocking group using new CID1 poly(U) polymerase mutant variants. We achieved an average coupling efficiency of 95% and demonstrated ten full cycles of liquid phase synthesis to produce natural and therapeutically relevant modified sequences. We then qualitatively assessed the platform on a solid phase, performing enzymatic synthesis of severalN + 5 oligonucleotides on a controlled-pore glass support. Adoption of an aqueous-based process will offer key advantages including the reduction of solvent use and sustainable therapeutic oligonucleotide manufacturing.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Rapid Decision Support Tool for Estimating Impacts of a Vadose Zone Volatile Organic Compound Source on Groundwater and Soil Gas

Diminishing rates of subsurface volatile contaminant removal by soil vapor extraction (SVE) oftentimes warrants an in‐depth performance assessment to guide remedy decision‐making processes. Such a performance assessment must include quantitative approaches to better understand the impact of remaining vadose zone contamination on soil gas and groundwater concentrations. The spreadsheet‐based Soil Vapor Extraction Endstate Tool (SVEET) software functionality has recently been expanded to facilitate quantitative performance assessments. The updated version, referred to as SVEET2, includes expansion of the input parameter ranges for describing a site (site geometry, source characteristics, etc.), an expanded list of contaminants, and incorporation of elements of the Vapor Intrusion Estimation Tool for Unsaturated‐zone Sources software to provide soil gas concentration estimates for use in vapor intrusion evaluation. As part of the update, SVEET2 was used to estimate the impact of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) vadose zone source on groundwater concentrations, comparing SVEET2 results to field‐observed values at an undisclosed site where SVE was recently terminated. PCE concentrations from three separate monitoring wells were estimated by SVEET2 to be within the range of 6.0–6.7 μg/L, as compared to actual field concentrations that ranged from 3 to 11 μg/L PCE. These data demonstrate that SVEET2 can rapidly provide representative quantitative estimates of impacts from a vadose zone contaminant source at field sites. Finally, in the context of the SVE performance assessment, such quantitative estimates provide a basis to support remedial and/or regulatory decisions regarding the continued need for vadose zone volatile organic compound remediation or technical justification for SVE termination, which can significantly reduce the cost to complete for a site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Fission Product Hydrochlorination

This work supports the recovery of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU, uranium enriched in 235 U to >5% and <20%) from used nuclear fuel through a process based on the zirconium extraction (ZIRCEX) process. The ZIRCEX process starts with the dry head-end removal of zirconium or aluminum cladding from the nuclear fuel via chlorination or hydrochlorination, which results in the separation of cladding from the fuel as the metal chloride (e.g., aluminum trichloride or zirconium tetrachloride). The hydrochlorination process is included in the Material Recovery Pilot Plant (MRPP), a ZIRCEX-based demonstration plant at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The experiments outlined in this report assessed fission product (FP) volatility and transport under the hydrochlorination conditions used to separate cladding from used nuclear fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Importance Of Quality Control in Reducing System Risk, a Lesson Learned From The Shuttle and a Recommendation for Future Launch Vehicles

This paper presents lessons learned from the Space Shuttle return to flight experience and the importance of these lessons learned in the development of new the NASA Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Specifically, the paper discusses the relationship between process control and system risk, and the importance of process control in improving space vehicle flight safety. It uses the External Tank (ET) Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience and lessons learned from the redesign and process enhancement activities performed in preparation for Return to Flight after the Columbia accident. The paper also, discusses in some details, the Probabilistic engineering physics based risk assessment performed by the Shuttle program to evaluate the impact of TPS failure on system risk and the application of the methodology to the CLV.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimising the geospatial configuration of a future lithium ion battery recycling industry in the transition to electric vehicles and a circular economy

Rapid electrification of the transport system will generate substantial volumes of Lithium-ion-battery (LiB) waste as batteries reach their end-of-life. Much attention focuses on the recycling processes, neglecting a broader systemic view that considers the concentration of the costs and impacts associated with logistics and transportation. This paper provides an economic, environmental and geospatial analysis of a future LiB recycling industry in the UK. Hitherto, state-of-the-art assessment methods have evaluated life cycle impacts and costs but have not considered the geographical layer of the problem. This paper develops a GSC derived supply chain model for the UK electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle battery industry. Considering both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling technologies, the optimisation process takes into account anticipated EV volumes, and, based on anticipated near-term technological evolution of LiBs, the evolution of the mix of battery cathodes in production, and presents a number of scenarios to show where LiB recycling facilities should ideally be geographically located. An economic and environmental assessment based on a customised EverBatt model is provided.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multispectral Image Processing for Plants

The development of a machine vision system to monitor plant growth and health is one of three essential steps towards establishing an intelligent system capable of accurately assessing the state of a controlled ecological life support system for long-term space travel. Besides a network of sensors, simulators are needed to predict plant features, and artificial intelligence algorithms are needed to determine the state of a plant based life support system. Multispectral machine vision and image processing can be used to sense plant features, including health and nutritional status.

Miles, Gaines E.↗