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At least 595 records · Page 33

A New Approach for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting Using the Estimation of Cloud Fraction and Cloud Albedo

Solar generation is an increasing part of the energy portfolio in the United States. An accurate forecast of the available solar resource and power is essential to managing the electric grid, market operations, and reducing the cost of solar energy. High-frequency forecasts of solar radiation in intra-hour horizons is important for real-time electric power system energy management, especially at the distribution level. Conventional Numerical Weather Prediction models perform poorly in intra-hour, high-frequency forecasts because of the limits on real-time computing, spatial resolution, and infrequent availability of observations. Although a number of alternative technologies, e.g., time-series analysis and machine learning, have been used to fill this gap, the smart persistence model is among the top-performing models in short-term forecasting and therefore often serves as the baseline to evaluate other forecasting models. Although the smart persistence model often serves as the baseline model in these intra-hour forecasts, obvious uncertainties exist in the current smart persistence model: (1) clear-sky index does not respond to the variation of the solar incident angle when cloud conditions are persistent within the forecast horizon, and (2) cloud coverage is inherently persistent though it is constrained by cloud advection. In this study, we developed a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting (PSPI) that integrates cloudy property estimation, a radiative transfer model, and cloud fraction forecasts to improve the performance of the smart persistence model. Compared to the smart persistence model, PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters past global horizontal irradiance, but it is customizable because additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the forecast. Our results show that the PSPI outperforms the persistence and smart persistence model on 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute forecast horizons. The software package of PSPI is flexible to users' needs and provides low computational time to run at site-specific locations across the continental United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral densities); converting PSDs to order analysis data; extracting harmonics; initializing and simultaneously tuning a harmonic model and a wheel structural model; initializing and tuning a broadband model; and verifying the harmonic/broadband/structural model against the measurement data. Functional operation is through a MATLAB GUI that loads test data, performs the various analyses, plots evaluation data for assessment and refinement of analysis parameters, and exports the data to documentation or downstream analysis code. The harmonic models are defined as specified functions of frequency, typically speed-squared. The reaction wheel structural model is realized as mass, damping, and stiffness matrices (typically from a finite element analysis package) with the addition of a gyroscopic forcing matrix. The broadband noise model is realized as a set of speed-dependent filters. The tuning of the combined model is performed using nonlinear least squares techniques. RWDMES is implemented as a MATLAB toolbox comprising the Fit Manager for performing the model extraction, Data Manager for managing input data and output models, the Gyro Manager for modifying wheel structural models, and the Harmonic Editor for evaluating and tuning harmonic models. This software was validated using data from Goodrich E wheels, and from GSFC Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) wheels. The validation testing proved that RWDMES has the capability to extract accurate disturbance models from flight reaction wheels with minimal user effort.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Development of Ultra-Fine Multigroup Cross Section Library of the AMPX/SCALE Code Packages

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) neutronic simulator MPACT is being developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan for various reactor applications. The MPACT and simplified MPACT 51- and 252-group cross section libraries have been developed for the MPACT neutron transport calculations by using the AMPX and Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluations (SCALE) code packages developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It has been noted that the conventional AMPX/SCALE procedure has limited applications for fast-spectrum systems such as boiling water reactor (BWR) fuels with very high void fractions and fast reactor fuels because of its poor accuracy in unresolved and fast energy regions. This lack of accuracy can introduce additional error sources to MPACT calculations, which is already limited by the Bondarenko approach for resolved resonance self-shielding calculation. To enhance the prediction accuracy of MPACT for fast-spectrum reactor analyses, the accuracy of the AMPX/SCALE code packages should be improved first. The purpose of this study is to identify the major problems of the AMPX/SCALE procedure in generating fast-spectrum cross sections and to devise ways to improve the accuracy. For this, various benchmark problems including a typical pressurized water reactor fuel, BWR fuels with various void fractions, and several fast reactor fuels were analyzed using the AMPX 252-group libraries. Isotopic reaction rates were determined by SCALE multigroup (MG) calculations and compared with continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo calculation results. This reaction rate analysis revealed three main contributors to the observed differences in reactivity and reaction rates: (1) the limitation of the Bondarenko approach in coarse energy group structure, (2) the normalization issue of probability tables, and (3) neglect of the self-shielding effect of resonance-like cross sections at high energy range such as (n,p) cross section of Cl35. The first error source can be eliminated by an ultra-fine group (UFG) structure in which the broad scattering resonances of intermediate-weight nuclides can be represented accurately by a piecewise constant function. A UFG AMPX library was generated with modified probability tables and tested against various benchmark problems. The reactivity and reaction rates determined with the new UFG AMPX library agreed very well with respect to Monte Carlo Neutral Particle (MCNP) results. To enhance the lattice calculation accuracy without significantly increasing the computational time, performing the UFG lattice calculation in two steps was proposed. In the first step, a UFG slowing-down calculation is performed for the corresponding homogenized composition, and UFG cross sections are collapsed into an intermediate group structure. In the second step, the lattice calculation is performed for the intermediate group level using the condensed group cross sections. A preliminary test showed that the condensed library reproduces the results obtained with the UFG cross section library. This result suggests that the proposed two-step lattice calculation approach is a promising option to enhance the applicability of the AMPX/SCALE system to fast system analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Crowdsourcing for Challenging Technical Problems - It Works!

The NASA Johnson Space Center Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering (Wyle) will conduct a one-day business cluster at the 62nd IAC so that IAC attendees will understand the benefits of open innovation (crowdsourcing), review successful results of conducting technical challenges in various open innovation projects, and learn how an organization can effectively deploy these new problem solving tools to innovate more efficiently and effectively. Results from both the SLSD open innovation pilot program and the open innovation workshop conducted by the NASA Human Health and Performance Center will be discussed. NHHPC members will be recruited to participate in the business cluster (see membership http://nhhpc.nasa.gov) and as IAF members. Crowdsourcing may be defined as the act of outsourcing tasks that are traditionally performed by an employee or contractor to an undefined, generally large group of people or community (a crowd) in the form of an open call. The open call may be issued by the organization wishing to find a solution to a particular problem or complete a task, or by an open innovation service provider on behalf of that organization. In 2008, the SLSD, with the support of Wyle, established and implemented pilot projects in open innovation (crowdsourcing) to determine if these new internet-based platforms could indeed find solutions to difficult technical challenges. These unsolved technical problems were converted to problem statements, called Challenges by some open innovation service providers, and were then posted externally to seek solutions to these problems. In addition, an open call was issued internally to NASA employees Agency wide (11 Field Centers and NASA HQ) using an open innovation service provider crowdsourcing platform to post NASA challenges from each Center for the others to propose solutions). From 2008 to 2010, the SLSD issued 34 challenges, 14 externally and 20 internally. The 14 external problems or challenges were posted through three different vendors: InnoCentive, yet2.com and TopCoder. The 20 internal challenges were conducted using the InnoCentive crowdsourcing platform designed for use internal to an organization and customized for NASA use, and promoted as NASA@Work. The results were significant. Of the seven InnoCentive external challenges, two full and five partial awards were made in complex technical areas such as predicting solar flares and long-duration food packaging.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

Linearity for Ca2+-Doped CeBr3 Scintillating Materials

The Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL) developed an aliovalently calcium-doped cerium tribromide (CeBr3:Ca2+) crystal with 3.2% resolution. RSL completed a crystal assessment, and Sandia National Laboratories calculated the predictive performance and physical characteristics using proven density functional theory (DFT) formalism. Results are reported for the work done to map the detector performance, characteristics, calcium doping concentration, and crystal strength. Preliminary scintillation measurements for this aliovalently calcium-doped CeBr3 scintillator exhibit a slight blue shift in fluorescence emission at 371 nm excitation for CeBr3. The structural, electronic, and optical properties of CeBr3 crystals were investigated using DFT within generalized gradient approximation. The calculated lattice parameters are in good agreement with the experimental data. The energy band structures and density of states were obtained. The optical properties of CeBr3, including the dielectric function, were calculated. Specifically, we report excellent linearity with the aliovalently calcium-doped CeBr3 crystal. Proportionality of light yield is one area of performance in which Ce-doped and Ce-based lanthanide halides excel. Maintaining proportionality is key to producing a strong, high-performance scintillator. Relative light yield proportionality was measured for both doped and undoped samples of CeBr3 to ensure no loss in performance was incurred during doping. The light output and proportionality, however, appear to be similar to CeBr3. There was a reduced yield at low energy. Relative light yield proportionality measurements suggest that dopants do not significantly affect proportionality at higher energies. RSL completed additional testing and evaluation of the new crystal and assessed benchmark spectroscopy measurements. Results, which present energy resolution as a function of energy, are summarized. Typical spectroscopy results using a 137Cs radiation source are shown for our crystallite. We obtain 4.5% for the packaged crystallite. More spectra are presented for 241Am, 60Co, 228Th, and background to exemplify CeBr3:Ca2+ over a broader energy range.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Surface elevation, snow depth, vegetation height, and color imagery from multiple UAV surveys from 2018 to 2023 across a watershed near Teller road mile marker 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Multiple photogrammetric surveys using an unoccupied aerial system (UAS) were performed across a watershed along Teller road on the Seward Peninsula (Alaska) to investigate terrain, vegetation and snowpack properties. This work was led by the environmental geophysics team from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory as part of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic). The multiple photogrammetric surveys used mostly a DJI Matrice 210 UAS with a DJI X5S camera, Ground Control Points (GCPs) surveyed with a Real Time Kinematic (RTK)-GPS, and a structure from motion (SfM) technique for photogrammetric reconstruction. Digital Surface elevation Models (DSMs) were inferred at various times of year, including near peak in plant and leaf density (July 19 2017), close to peak in snow depth (April 1 2019 and April 11 2022), and at low plant and leaf density of tall after the first bare-ground date (June 9 2019). Snow and canopy height were obtained by subtracting DSMs from a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) proxy inferred from the June 9 2019 survey. The derived products include ortho-mosaiced RGB map, DSMs, a DTM proxy, snow depth (April 2019 and 2022) and canopy height (July 2017). Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.csv), image (*.jpg), and GeoTiff (*.tif) formats. This metadata document contains a description of the survey and processing steps and the inferred products.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rod internal pressure quantification and distribution analysis using Frapcon

This report documents work performed supporting the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Fuel Cycle Technologies Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) under work breakdown structure element 1.02.08.10, ST Analysis. In particular, this report fulfills the M4 milestone M4FT- 15OR0810036, Quantify effects of power uncertainty on fuel assembly characteristics, within work package FT-15OR081003 ST Analysis-ORNL. This research was also supported by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (http://www.casl.gov), an Energy Innovation Hub (http://www.energy.gov/hubs) for Modeling and Simulation of Nuclear Reactors under U.S. Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. The discharge rod internal pressure (RIP) and cladding hoop stress (CHS) distributions are quantified for Watts Bar Nuclear Unit 1 (WBN1) fuel rods by modeling core cycle design data, operation data (including modeling significant trips and downpowers), and as-built fuel enrichments and densities of each fuel rod in FRAPCON-3.5. A methodology is developed which tracks inter-cycle assembly movements and assembly batch fabrication information to build individual FRAPCON inputs for each evaluated WBN1 fuel rod. An alternate model for the amount of helium released from the zirconium diboride (ZrB2) integral fuel burnable absorber (IFBA) layer is derived and applied to FRAPCON output data to quantify the RIP and CHS for these types of fuel rods. SCALE/Polaris is used to quantify fuel rodspecific spectral quantities and the amount of gaseous fission products produced in the fuel for use in FRAPCON inputs. Fuel rods with ZrB2 IFBA layers (i.e., IFBA rods) are determined to have RIP predictions that are elevated when compared to fuel rod without IFBA layers (i.e., standard rods) despite the fact that IFBA rods often have reduced fill pressures and annular fuel pellets. The primary contributor to elevated RIP predictions at burnups less than and greater than 30 GWd/MTU is determined to be the total fuel rod void volume and the amount of released fission gas in the fuel rod, respectively. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are prepared from the distribution of RIP and CHS predictions for all standard and IFBA rods. The provided CDFs allow for the determination of the portion of WBN1 fuel rods that exceed a specified RIP or CHS limit. Results are separated into IFBA and standard rods so that the two groups may be analyzed individually. FRAPCON results are provided in sufficient detail to enable the recalculation of the RIP while considering any desired plenum gas temperature, total void volume, or total amount of gas present in the void volume. A method to predict the CHS from a determined or assumed RIP is also proposed, which is based on the approximately linear relationship between the CHS and the RIP. Finally, improvements to the computational methodology of FRAPCON are proposed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Scoping Thermal Response Calculations of RNS Waste During Transport to and Disposal at the WIPP

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was contracted by the United States Department of Energy Environmental Management (DOE-EM), Los Alamos Field Office to perform mechanical and thermal scoping calculations as part of a study seeking to understand the ignitability risk of the Remediated Nitrate Salts (RNS) waste drums during transportation from the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) facility to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and permanent disposal of the waste at WIPP. The scoping thermal simulations described in this report pertain to thermal calculations performed with a packaging system consisting of one Standard Waste Box (SWB) loaded with drums placed inside a Standard Large Box 2 (SLB2). During transportation, the SLB2 is inside Transuranic Package Transporter Model III (TRUPACT-III), which provides the third layer of the packaging. Once at the WIPP, it is assumed the SLB2 is extracted from the TRUPACT-III and maintained above ground, and then subsequently placed underground for permanent disposal. In these proposed configurations, the space between the SLB2 and the SWB is always filled by a layer of insulation consisting of air-filled glass microbubbles except for the bottom which rests directly on the SLB2. The thermal scoping calculations described in this report specifically address whether the introduction of external heat inputs, combined with the contributions from the internally generated radiolytic decay heat and chemical reactions, lead to an unstable thermal state during the time of its movement and placement in the permanent disposal location. The external heat inputs are of two forms: 1) ambient thermal irradiation (e.g., solar and ambient storage/disposal temperatures) and 2) accident-induced fire. Three scoping calculation scenarios were derived as representative, conservative scenarios: 1A) TRUPACT-III transient transportation, 1B) SLB2 48-hour outdoor storage with solar radiation, and 2) fully-engulfing fire during SLB2 handling or emplacement following a steady-state analysis in a 38 °C environment. All the simulated scenarios are conservative relative to the operational conditions expected for handling the waste package during transportation and placement in the WIPP underground disposal unit. The predictions obtained from simulating the three exposure scenarios revealed that adding the SLB2 and the air-filled glass microbubbles to the transport and storage/disposal configurations provides additional thermal protection of the drums beyond what the SWB provides alone, both during long-term above ground insolation and underground during a fire accident. Under the current transportation/storage/disposal concepts, the degree of protection provided by the packaging concept is sufficient to prevent the waste from being ignitable. The simulation results demonstrate that there is adequate margin to safely transport and place the RNS waste from WCS to the WIPP under the current operational concept.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mechanisms of interfacial reactivity in near surface and extreme environments

The local water structure surrounding ions in aqueous solutions greatly affects their chemical properties such as reaction rates, ion association, and proton and electron transport. These properties result in the behavior of ions in natural aqueous environments. For example ore transport is facilitated by chloride ion pair formation and the reaction of ions in an interface is strongly dependent on the dehydration of the ion hydration shell. We are developing the use of high-­resolution XAFS observations and 1st principles based MD-­XAFS analysis (spectra simulated using 1st principle methods with no adjustable parameters, AIMD) to interpret the solution properties of strongly interacting aqueous solutes under arbitrary pressure and temperature conditions. In the 1st principle MD-­XAFS method density functional theory (DFT) based MD simulations(Car and Parrinello, 1985) are used to generate a large ensemble of structural snap shots of the hydration region. These are then used to generate scattering intensities. I emphasize three points about this novel approach to analyzing XAFS data. 1st: As illustrated in Figure 1, the level of agreement between the calculated and observed intensities is considerably higher than has been obtained by any XAFS analysis to date (note 2nd shell region, R> 2 Å). 2nd: This result was obtained from a parameter free simulation with no fitting of the interaction potentials to any data. This supports the use of these methods for more difficult environments and more complex solutes (polyions). 3rd: New information about the shell structure (Figure 1) is now available because of this more detailed agreement. We note also that both multiple scattering and second shell features are well represented in the analysis. As far as we know this is the 1st analysis of second shell structure and multiple scattering. Excellent agreement has been obtained for most of the third row metal ions: Ca 2+ , Zn 2+ , Cu 2+ , Ni 2+ , Co 2+ , Mn 2+ , Fe 3+ , Cr 3+ . Calculations on these systems are demanding because of their open electronic shells, and high ionic charge. Principal Investigator: Professor John Weare (University of California, San Diego) The prediction of the interactions of geochemical fluids with minerals, nanoparticles, and colloids under extreme near surface conditions of temperature (T) and pressure (P) is a grand challenge research need in geosciences (U.S. DOE 2007, Basic Research Needs for Geosciences: Facilitating the 21st Energy Systems.). To evaluate the impact of these processes on energy production and management strategies it is necessary to have a high level of understanding of the interaction between complex natural fluids and mineral formations. This program emphasizes 1st principle parameter free simulations of complex chemical processes in solutions, in the mineral phase, and in the interfaces between these phases The development of new computational tools (with emphasis on oxide materials and reaction dynamics) tailored to treat wide range of conditions and time scales experienced in such geochemical applications is has been developed. Because of the sensitivity of the interaction in these systems to electronic structure and local bonding environments, and of the need to describe bond breaking/formation, our simulations are based on interactions calculated at the electronic structure level (ab-initio molecular dynamics, AIMD). The progress in the computational aspects of program may be summarized in terms of the following themes (objectives); Development of efficient parameter free dynamical simulation technology based on 1st principles force and energy calculations especially adapted for geochemical applications (e.g., mineral, interfaces and aqueous solutions) (continuing program); Calculation of the dynamics of water structure of in the surface-water interface of transition metal oxides and oxihydroxides; and Development of improved (beyond DFT+GGA) electronic structure calculations for minerals and the interface region that more accurately calculate electron correlation, spin density, and localization. The focus of the program is also on the iron oxide and oxihydroxide minerals and Fe 2+ (aq)/Fe 3+ (cr) oxidation in the mineral solution interface region. These methods included the development of model Hamilitonian methods that can be solved to near convergence for single site models (DMFT) and many-body perturbation methods (MP2, GW); Development of time decomposition methods to extend time scales of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and support the use of high complexity electronic structure calculations (MP2, CCSD(T)) of forces for use in dynamical simulations where very high chemical accuracy is required (microsolvated reactions in absorbed surface layers); and The development of a new linear scaling finite element solver for eigenvalue problem that supports solution of quantum problems with unusual potential and boundary values. Application progress of the above new simulation technology to problems of geochemical interests includes; The prediction of metal oxide surface structure and the reduction/oxidation of Fe 3+ (cr)/Fe 2+ (aq) in metal oxide (hematite, goethite)/solution interfaces. Result: water interacts strongly with the 001 Hematite surface; interaction of water with the 100 goethite is weak; The study of ion solvation and the composition of ion hydration shells under extreme conditions (focus on Fe 3+/2+ , Al 3+ and Mg 2+ and their hydroxide speciation). Result: Ion association in water solutions can be calculated from 1st principle methods. Efficient sampling of the free energy requires more development; The continued development of new high resolution analysis of XAFS scattering of disordered systems (particularly Al, Mg) and of XANES calculations for aqueous ions. Result: EXAFS spectra can be calculated to high accuracy with DFT level dynamic simulations; The exploration of electron localization and electron transport in metal oxides (highly correlated materials). Result: Proper description of electron localization requires levels of calculation beyond DFT; and Localization of electrons in DFT type Hamiltonians was studied. Result: For very Dirac high exchange new solutions (New unphysical bifrucations) to the eigenvalue problem are found. The program was highly collaborative involving faculty and students in mathematics, physics and computer science departments as well as coworkers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL). The students in this program had the opportunity to develop skills in the development of methods, the implementation of method on high performance parallel computers and the application of these methods to problem in geochemical science. Much of the software that was developed was incorporated in the NWchem software package maintained by PNNL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

File Specification for GEOS-5 FP (Forward Processing)

The GEOS-5 FP Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 ADAS) uses an analysis developed jointly with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which allows the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to take advantage of the developments at NCEP and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). The GEOS-5 AGCM uses the finite-volume dynamics (Lin, 2004) integrated with various physics packages (e.g, Bacmeister et al., 2006), under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) including the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) (e.g., Koster et al., 2000). The GSI analysis is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) analysis applied in grid-point space to facilitate the implementation of anisotropic, inhomogeneous covariances (e.g., Wu et al., 2002; Derber et al., 2003). The GSI implementation for GEOS-5 FP incorporates a set of recursive filters that produce approximately Gaussian smoothing kernels and isotropic correlation functions. The GEOS-5 ADAS is documented in Rienecker et al. (2008). More recent updates to the model are presented in Molod et al. (2011). The GEOS-5 system actively assimilates roughly 2 × 10(exp 6) observations for each analysis, including about 7.5 × 10(exp 5) AIRS radiance data. The input stream is roughly twice this volume, but because of the large volume, the data are thinned commensurate with the analysis grid to reduce the computational burden. Data are also rejected from the analysis through quality control procedures designed to detect, for example, the presence of cloud. To minimize the spurious periodic perturbations of the analysis, GEOS-5 FP uses the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique developed by Bloom et al. (1996). More details of this procedure are given in Appendix A. The assimilation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 0.3125-degree longitude by 0.25- degree latitude and at 72 levels, extending to 0.01 hPa. All products are generated at the native resolution of the horizontal grid. The majority of data products are time-averaged, but four instantaneous products are also available. Hourly data intervals are used for two-dimensional products, while 3-hourly intervals are used for three-dimensional products. These may be on the model's native 72-layer vertical grid or at 42 pressure surfaces extending to 0.1 hPa. This document describes the gridded output files produced by the GMAO near real-time operational FP, using the most recent version of the GEOS-5 assimilation system. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary. Documentation about the current access methods for products described in this document can be found on the GMAO products page: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/.

GSI↗

Assessing the Role of Interfacial and Metal Sites in Pt/TiO2-Catalyzed Acetic Acid Hydrodeoxygenation

Thermochemical conversion of biomass to produce drop-in quality biofuels typically involves hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) steps following catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) to remove excess oxygen and create a more-stable bio-oil product. HDO reactions are performed by co-feeding the CFP vapor-phase product and H2 gas over a bi-functional catalyst. Noble-metal catalysts supported on reducible metal oxides (e.g., Pt/TiO2) are active and selective toward these HDO reactions. Griffin and co-workers showed that Pt/TiO2 catalysts promote the desired deoxygenation steps for m-cresol HDO while mitigating undesired C-C bond-breaking steps that reduce the overall value/energy density of the biofuel. Such model-compound studies to inform the design of improved catalysts for HDO chemistry are necessary to improve the overall process economics/efficiencies for biofuels production. One important class of bio-derived compounds that has not been studied extensively with respect to HDO chemistry, particularly at the atomic level, is carboxylic acids. Past experimental work indicates that Pt/C and Pt/TiO2 catalysts are selective toward C-C and C-O bond-dissociation products for acetic acid HDO, respectively. To understand the role of Pt/TiO2 active sites in this observed change in selectivity and guide catalyst development, the work in this presentation focuses on modeling the role of Pt-metal and Pt-TiO2-interfacial sites in promoting key C-C bond-breaking, C-O bond-breaking, and (de)hydrogenation steps in acetic acid HDO. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed using the Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). The exchange-correlation functional was approximated by the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof functional. Dispersion interactions were captured using the D3 method. Projector augmented-wave potentials described electron-ion interactions, and electron wavefunctions were expanded via a planewave basis with an energy cutoff of 500 eV. Activation barriers were calculated using the climbing image nudged elastic band method. Results and Discussion: To discern the role of Pt-metal and Pt-TiO2 interface sites in promoting acetic acid HDO chemistry, Pt(111) slab and anatase TiO2(101)-supported Pt-nanowire (PtNW/OH-TiO2) surface models were constructed, respectively. Because H2 is co-fed in HDO reactions, the anatase support was terminated with OH groups. Interfacial vacancies have been shown to facilitate Ru/TiO2-catalyzed phenol HDO; thus, an interfacial model with an OH vacancy was also considered (PtNW/OHv-TiO2). Pt-TiO2-interface sites stabilize adsorption of all studied acetic acid HDO surface intermediates relative to terrace Pt-metal sites, particularly when an interfacial-OH vacancy is present. Oxygenated species prefer to bind at the OH vacancy through the O atom, suggesting a preference for C-O over C-C bond cleavage at these sites. This hypothesis is supported by net-negative and net-positive average shifts in the reaction energy and activation energy barriers for C-O and C-C bond-breaking steps, respectively, at Pt-TiO2-interface sites relative to Pt-metal sites. Using the calculated energetics, the predicted minimum-energy pathway was determined for each surface. Pt(111) is predicted to follow decarboxylation, producing undesired methane and carbon dioxide. Conversely, PtNW/OH-TiO2 and PtNW/OHv-TiO2 are both predicted to produce desired acetaldehyde and ethane. The interfacial vacancy may also play a key role in facilitating the first C-O bond-breaking step in acetic acid HDO, lowering the barrier by 0.6 eV relative to the defect-free interface model. These results demonstrate the critical role of the Pt-TiO2 interface in the shift in acetic acid HDO selectivity experimentally observed on Pt/C and Pt/TiO2 catalysts. The results herein demonstrate the important role of the Pt-TiO2 interface and interfacial oxygen vacancies in improving the carbon efficiency for HDO reactions in CFP upgrading.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

File Specification for GEOS-5 FP-IT (Forward Processing for Instrument Teams)

The GEOS-5 FP-IT Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 ADAS) uses an analysis developed jointly with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which allows the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to take advantage of the developments at NCEP and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). The GEOS-5 AGCM uses the finite-volume dynamics (Lin, 2004) integrated with various physics packages (e.g, Bacmeister et al., 2006), under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) including the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) (e.g., Koster et al., 2000). The GSI analysis is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) analysis applied in grid-point space to facilitate the implementation of anisotropic, inhomogeneous covariances (e.g., Wu et al., 2002; Derber et al., 2003). The GSI implementation for GEOS-5 FP-IT incorporates a set of recursive filters that produce approximately Gaussian smoothing kernels and isotropic correlation functions. The GEOS-5 ADAS is documented in Rienecker et al. (2008). More recent updates to the model are presented in Molod et al. (2011). The GEOS-5 system actively assimilates roughly 2 × 10(exp 6) observations for each analysis, including about 7.5 × 10(exp 5) AIRS radiance data. The input stream is roughly twice this volume, but because of the large volume, the data are thinned commensurate with the analysis grid to reduce the computational burden. Data are also rejected from the analysis through quality control procedures designed to detect, for example, the presence of cloud. To minimize the spurious periodic perturbations of the analysis, GEOS-5 FP-IT uses the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique developed by Bloom et al. (1996). More details of this procedure are given in Appendix A. The analysis is performed at a horizontal resolution of 0.625-degree longitude by 0.5-degree latitude and at 72 levels, extending to 0.01 hPa. All products are generated at the native resolution of the horizontal grid. The majority of data products are time-averaged, but four instantaneous products are also available. Hourly data intervals are used for two-dimensional products, while 3-hourly intervals are used for three-dimensional products. These may be on the model's native 72-layer vertical grid or at 42 pressure surfaces extending to 0.1 hPa. This document describes the gridded output files produced by the GMAO near real-time operational GEOS-5 FP-IT processing in support of the EOS instrument teams. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary.

3D Var↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Assessment: Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

MO-AB-BRA-09: Temporally Realistic Manipulation a 4D Biomechanical Lung Phantom for Evaluation of Simultaneous Registration and Segmentation

Purpose: To produce multi-modality compatible, realistic datasets for the joint evaluation of segmentation and registration with a reliable ground truth using a 4D biomechanical lung phantom. The further development of a computer controlled air flow system for recreation of real patient breathing patterns is incorporated for additional evaluation of motion prediction algorithms. Methods: A pair of preserved porcine lungs was pneumatically manipulated using an in-house computer controlled respirator. The respirator consisted of a set of bellows actuated by a 186 W computer controlled industrial motor. Patient breathing traces were recorded using a respiratory bellows belt during CT simulation and input into a control program incorporating a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) feedback controller in LabVIEW. Mock tumors were created using dual compartment vacuum sealed sea sponges. 65% iohexol,a gadolinium-based contrast agent and 18F-FDG were used to produce contrast and thus determine a segmentation ground truth. The intensity distributions of the compartments were then digitally matched for the final dataset. A bifurcation tracking pipeline provided a registration ground truth using the bronchi of the lung. The lungs were scanned using a GE Discovery-ST PET/CT scanner and a Phillips Panorama 0.23T MRI using a T1 weighted 3D fast field echo (FFE) protocol. Results: The standard deviation of the error between the patient breathing trace and the encoder feedback from the respirator was found to be ±4.2%. Bifurcation tracking error using CT (0.97×0.97×3.27 mm{sup 3} resolution) was found to be sub-voxel up to 7.8 cm displacement for human lungs and less than 1.32 voxel widths in any axis up to 2.3 cm for the porcine lungs. Conclusion: An MRI/PET/CT compatible anatomically and temporally realistic swine lung phantom was developed for the evaluation of simultaneous registration and segmentation algorithms. With the addition of custom software and mock tumors, the entire package offers ground truths for benchmarking performance with high fidelity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enabling in-time Prognostics with Surrogate Modeling through Physics-enhanced Dynamic Mode Decomposition Method

Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.

prognostics and health management↗