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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of UKESM aerosol size and composition using ATom measurements indicates missing marine aerosol formation mechanisms

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate through their interactions with radiation and clouds, yet large uncertainties remain in their simulation by global models. This study evaluates the United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1.1 (UKESM1.1) using global-scale aircraft observations from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, focusing on aerosol lifecycle processes in the remote marine atmosphere. We assess model performance in simulating aerosol precursor vapours, number size distributions, chemical composition, and environmental conditions. Several process improvements are tested, including sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation, ammonium nitrate scheme, methanesulfonic acid condensation, and low-temperature isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol formation. Model biases differ significantly between the upper troposphere (UT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL). In the UT, UKESM1.1 overestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles while underestimating accumulation mode, indicating insufficient growth. In the MBL, the model overestimates primary aerosols (e.g. seasalt) and precursor gases but underestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles, even after incorporating updated nucleation and ammonium nitrate scheme. The persistence of low aerosol number concentrations, despite overestimated precursors, suggests missing formation pathways likely involving other species such as iodine, amines, and organic vapours. These limitations result in an unbalanced cloud condensation nuclei budget that over-relies on primary emissions. Sensitivity tests reveal that model outputs are strongly influenced by dimethyl sulfide emissions and vapour condensation schemes. Our results highlight the need for future model development to prioritise mechanistic representation of currently missing aerosol sources, rather than relying on empirical tuning, to improve aerosol-climate interaction estimates.

He, Xu-Cheng [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom);↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Hydrologic Model Process Connectivity at the Continental Scale Through an Information Theory Approach

Exploring water fluxes between hydrological model (HM) components is essential to assess and improve model realism. Many classical metrics for HM diagnosis rely solely on streamflow and hence provide limited insights into model performance across processes. This study applies an information theory measure known as “transfer entropy” (TE) to systematically quantify the transfer of information among major HM components. To test and demonstrate the benefits of TE, we use the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) model to mimic and compare four commonly used HM structures, VIC, PRMS, SACRAMENTO, and TOPMODEL, across 671 catchments spanning a variety of hydrologic regimes in the conterminous United States. We explore connections between HM components and catchment landscape characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, soil, and vegetation) and characterize their nonlinear associations using distance correlation and Spearman correlation coefficients. Our results indicate that while the information transferred from precipitation to runoff is similar across model structures (likely as a result of calibration), the information transferred among other components can vary significantly from a FUSE structure to another. We find that aridity, precipitation duration and frequency, snow fraction, mean elevation, forest area, and leaf area index are often significantly associated with TE between the main HM components. Here, we propose that the presence of meaningful nonlinear associations can be used to diagnose process representation in HMs. Our results highlight the necessity to enhance the conventional streamflow-only calibration approach for a more realistic representation of water dynamics in the models.

large-sample hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking machine learning strategies for phase-field problems

Abstract We present a comprehensive benchmarking framework for evaluating machine-learning approaches applied to phase-field problems. This framework focuses on four key analysis areas crucial for assessing the performance of such approaches in a systematic and structured way. Firstly, interpolation tasks are examined to identify trends in prediction accuracy and accumulation of error over simulation time. Secondly, extrapolation tasks are also evaluated according to the same metrics. Thirdly, the relationship between model performance and data requirements is investigated to understand the impact on predictions and robustness of these approaches. Finally, systematic errors are analyzed to identify specific events or inadvertent rare events triggering high errors. Quantitative metrics evaluating the local and global description of the microstructure evolution, along with other scalar metrics representative of phase-field problems, are used across these four analysis areas. This benchmarking framework provides a path to evaluate the effectiveness and limitations of machine-learning strategies applied to phase-field problems, ultimately facilitating their practical application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Feasibility and the Benefits of the Advanced Nuclear Fuel Pellet Designs with Radially Varying Fuel Zoning and Burnable Poison Concentration (Final Summary Report)

As part of the work supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) FY 2021 Voucher, Exelon Generation, now Constellation, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) entered into a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) to evaluate and assess the feasibility and impact of various conceptual advanced nuclear fuel pellet designs (ANFPDs). The objective of this project was to perform modeling and simulation and analyses using the advanced modeling and simulation capabilities of VERA/BISON, developed by DOE, to determine the viability and benefits of numerous advanced nuclear fuel pellet design concepts in terms of fuel cycle costs, operational safety, and margin improvement. Whereas the detailed coupled neutronic and thermal hydraulic analyses performed using VERA provided in-depth knowledge in terms of fuel cycle performance, the detailed VERA results were used in subsequent fuel performance analyses using BISON. These subsequent analyses focused on several key fuel performance criteria, such as peak fuel centerline temperature (FCT), fission gas release (FGR), gap closure, plenum pressure, and cladding hoop stress. These key fuel performance criteria were analyzed for some of the conceptual fuel designs and were compared with the results obtained for UO 2 fuel. The results provided detailed information to enable better understanding of the performance of the fuel types analyzed. Understanding the advantage of loading these conceptual fuel designs into the core is important not only to Constellation but also to the entire light-water reactor (LWR) fleet in the United States.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SHOCK TUBE IGNITION STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS FOR MEDIUM AND HEAVY-DUTY TRANSPORTATION

Currently extensive research on alternative fuels is being conducted due to their increasing demand to reduce greenhouse emissions. One renewable fuel studied in this work is dimethyl ether (DME) blended with propane(C3H8) as a potential mixture for heavy-duty engines used in semi-trucks. The blend has the potential to drastically reduce particulate and greenhouse gas emissions compared to a conventional diesel engine operating under similar conditions. To develop the use of mixture, one must conduct detailed conceptual and simulation studies before progressing to detail studies in CFD, engine modifications, and live testing. For simulations, accurate high-fidelity chemical kinetic models are necessary. However, the validity of the chemical kinetic mechanism for operating conditions of a heavy-duty mixing-controlled compression (MCCI) engine was widely unknown until recent work presented here and published. In this work, we studied the ignition of DME and propane blends in a shock tube under MCCI engine conditions. Ignition delay time (IDT) gathered behind the reflected shock for DME-propane mixtures for heavy-duty compression ignition (CI) engine parameters. Testing was conducted for undiluted varieties spanning from temperatures of 700 to 1100 K at pressures ranging from 55 to 84 bar for various blends (100% CH3OCH3, 100% C3H8, 60% CH3OCH3/ 40% C3H8) of DME and propane were combusted in synthetic air (21% O2/ 79% N2). Several experiments were conducted at higher pressures (90-120 bar) to improve the model performance and accuracy. The ignition delay times (IDTs) were compared to recent mechanisms, including Aramco3.0, NUIG, and Dames et al. A common trend among the mechanisms was overpredicted experimental IDTs. Further studies were conducted by a sensitivity analysis using the Dames et al. model, and critical reactions sensitive to IDTs of DME-propane mixture near 60 bar are outlined. Chemical analysis was conducted on the NTC region to explain chemical kinetics which is critical for developing MCCI heavy duty engines.

Mohammed, Zuhayr Pasha↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2025

A mixture parameterized biologically based dosimetry model to predict body burdens of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in developmental zebrafish toxicity assays

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of environmental toxicants found ubiquitously as complex mixtures in human-impacted environments. Developmental zebrafish exposures have been used widely to study PAH toxicity, but most studies report nominal exposure concentrations. Nominal exposure concentrations can be unreliable dose metrics due to differences in toxicant bioavailability resulting from disparate exposure methodologies and chemical properties. Toxicokinetic modeling can predict toxicant tissue doses to facilitate comparison between exposures of different chemicals, methodologies, and biological models. We parameterize a biologically based dosimetry model for developmental zebrafish toxicity assays for 9 PAHs. The model was optimized with measurements from media, tissue, and plastic plate walls throughout a static developmental exposure to a mixture of 10 PAHs of high abundance within the Portland Harbor Superfund Site. Plate binding, volatilization, zebrafish permeability, and tissue—media partitioning coefficients vary widely between PAHs. Model predictions accounted for 83% and 54% of 48 hpf body burdens within a factor of 2 resulting from exposures to mixtures and individual PAHs, respectively. Accounting for solubility significantly improves model performance. Competition for active sites in metabolizing enzymes may change biotransformation kinetics between individual PAH and mixture exposures. Area under the curve estimations of concentrations in zebrafish resulted in altered hazard rankings from nominal exposure concentrations. Future work will be oriented to generalizing the model to other PAHs. This PAH dosimetry model improves the interpretability of developmental zebrafish toxicity assays by providing time-resolved body burdens from nominal exposure concentrations.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards in-situ certification of additively manufactured parts: the vital roles of physics-based and data-driven models

Certifying additively manufactured (AM) parts in-situ at the completion of a build is an enticing prospect, as it can help reduce the high costs associated with post-build testing and evaluation. However, achieving this goal presents significant challenges that may keep it aspirational for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, incremental progress can pave the way forward. A critical aspect of in-situ certification involves continuous quality checking due to the random nature of the AM process and the difficulties in detecting defects or anomalies once layers are built over. While real-time in-situ monitoring strategies assisted by machine learning (ML) play a pivotal role in auditing part quality, they must ideally be supported by real-time (or near real-time) adaptive process control enabled by ML-assisted decision-making. By analyzing in-situ monitoring data in real-time (or near real- time) to dynamically adjust manufacturing parameters, such intervention can ensure AM parts are built to meet stringent certification standards. This can be achieved virtually by using high-fidelity performance models for the physical testing and evaluation tasks. In this short editorial, we discuss the key contributions made by data-driven and physics-based models in providing intelligence to the monitoring and process control tasks underpinning in-situ certification and in the simulation of the build’s performance under test and service conditions. While our focus lies in metal AM, the concepts discussed here are also relevant to other AM processes.

: In-situ monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing GEOPHIRES-X Beyond Electricity

The GEOPHIRES tool is a techno-economic simulator for evaluating the thermal performance and cost-competitiveness of geothermal plants for electricity, heating, and/or cooling. The tool combines reservoir, wellbore, and surface plant cost and performance models to estimate overall techno-economic metrics such as net present value or levelized cost of electricity, heating, or cooling. We recently upgraded the tool to an object-oriented Python framework, presented in an accompanying paper. As part of the upgrade, we enhanced the capability to simulate the performance of geothermal plants for heating and cooling, which is the topic of this paper. Specifically, we (1) integrated absorption chillers to investigate the performance of utilizing geothermal heat for cooling, (2) integrated a heat pump module to boost the geothermal temperature and thermal output, (3) integrated a district heating module to estimate heating demand for a district based on local weather data, and simulated heat supply with geothermal energy and peaking boilers, and (4) integrated GEOPHIRES as an engine in the dGeo simulator to perform a geospatial analysis of geothermal district heating feasibility across a large region (e.g., a state or the entire United States) utilizing resource and thermal demand maps. This paper presents background information and case studies for several of these heating and cooling end-use options in GEOPHIRES.

absorption chiller↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis of Synthetic Fuels Pathways Integrated with Light Water Reactors

The purpose of this work is to identify, model, perform techno-economic analysis, and compare two possible synfuel production routes utilizing CO 2 as the feedstock. Heat from an LWR nuclear plant is integrated wherever possible to positively affect the economics of the LWR by converting power to fuels during times of low grid electricity demand. Process and economic modeling for a conceptual synfuel production plant co-located (or in near proximity) with an LWR is presented, including the cost of CO 2 captured from an ethanol plant, compressed, and transported to the LWR hybrid plant, co-electrolysis of the CO 2 with water in a solid oxide electrolyzing cell (SOEC) system to produce syngas, and thermocatalytic conversion of the syngas to transportation fuel. The hybrid LWR/synfuels plant is assumed to be located within 50–150 miles of an ethanol plant (e.g., located in the midwest region of the United States). Performance and nth-plant economics for the co-electrolysis-based processes are evaluated and compared with biomass-gasification-based technology for the synfuel routes considered. Sensitivity analysis around the price of CO 2 and electricity, two of the major cost drivers, is presented for each case. Consideration of a carbon credit is also included in the sensitivity analysis.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis and Validation of Spectral Irradiance Simulations for 75 kW Bifacial Solar Test Field

This work investigates how the spectrum of irradiance incident on the rear of bifacial modules impacts their performance. Light incident on the rear of bifacial modules can be reflected from the ground, mounting structures, and other nearby objects, causing both the intensity and spectrum to be modified. As a result, PV cells and sensors with different spectral responses report different values for the rear irradiance, leading to increased uncertainty when modeling performance. Here, we calculate the spectral irradiance incident on the rear of modules through raytrace simulations and validate with measured field data collected from a 75kW single-axis-tracked bifacial test site. Spectral responses for different sensors and PV cells are applied and compared with field measurements for four days. Based on these results, a method for improving non-spectral simulations is proposed. In addition, a linear regression is applied to the modeled spectral results as a method to gain insight into the contributions of ground reflected light to total rear irradiance.

bifacial photovoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new database of building-space-specific internal loads and load schedules for performance based code compliance modeling of commercial buildings

Building-level loads and load profiles prescribed by current modeling rules save modelers time and avoid gaming during whole building performance modeling. However, recent studies show that they sometimes insufficiently capture the entire building performance due to the varied loads and load profiles for different space types. As a solution to this issue, this paper develops a database of building-space-specific loads and load profiles used in code compliance modeling. The existing sets of loads and load profiles are reviewed and the challenges behind using them for specific research topics are discussed. Then, the proposed method to develop the building-space-specific loads and load profiles is introduced. After that, the database for these building-space-specific loads and load profiles is presented. In addition, one case is studied to demonstrate the applications of these loads and load profiles. In this case study, three methods are used to develop building energy models: space-specific (using knowledge of the distribution and location of space types and applying the space-specific data in the developed database), building-level (assuming a lack of knowledge of the space types and using the building-level data in the developed database), and calculated-ratio (assuming knowledge of the distribution of space types but not their locations and calculating weighted average values based on the space-specific data in the developed database). Finally, the energy results simulated by using these three methods are compared, which show building-level methods can produce energy results up to 20% different than the space-specific methods. Finally, this paper discusses the application scope and maintenance of this new database.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep representation learning improves prediction of LacI-mediated transcriptional repression

Significance The understanding of protein function increases with new experimental and evolutionary datasets. A major challenge is to apply machine learning to these datasets to capture essential features of protein function. Here, we analyze the experimentally determined repression function for tens of thousands of mutants of the LacI protein. This study provides a continuous, noncategorical repression value across a majority of all single mutations and for thousands of higher-order mutations. To develop a top-performing model for the prediction of repression by LacI, we compare several leading variant effect prediction algorithms. A deep representation learning paradigm, first trained across millions of proteins from all known protein families and then fine-tuned using LacI experimental data, offers the highest predictive performance of repression function.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Model-Free Voltage Control Approach to Mitigate Motor Stalling and FIDVR for Smart Grids

Electric power networks are large and highly nonlinear dynamical systems that present unique challenges to control design. Though there is a large number of dynamic models for power system stability and control, many models are only useful with right assumptions and wrong for other tasks. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of the grid is increasingly complex under the banner of smart grids. These lead to the difficulty of developing appropriate dynamic modeling, and thus an efficient control strategy. To avoid such modeling challenges, here we present a novel dynamic voltage control strategy based on a model-free control (MFC) approach, requiring no modeling procedure. In particular, it focuses on fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) events, which require complex and accurate dynamic load models to replicate such events. This work utilizes MFC as an online controller to achieve the desired voltage stability under the FIDVR event. The proposed MFC strategy allows simple implementation and low computational cost for efficient mitigation of FIDVR. For benchmarking, a reasonably accurate dynamic performance model is explored. Simulation results with the IEEE 57 bus test network demonstrate the enhanced dynamic voltage profile for load buses having induction motors with the support of reactive power resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗