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At least 595 records · Page 33

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectroscopic characterization of collagen cross-links in bone

Collagen is the most abundant protein of the organic matrix in mineralizing tissues. One of its most critical properties is its cross-linking pattern. The intermolecular cross-linking provides the fibrillar matrices with mechanical properties such as tensile strength and viscoelasticity. In this study, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and FTIR imaging (FTIRI) analyses were performed in a series of biochemically characterized samples including purified collagen cross-linked peptides, demineralized bovine bone collagen from animals of different ages, collagen from vitamin B6-deficient chick homogenized bone and their age- and sex-matched controls, and histologically stained thin sections from normal human iliac crest biopsy specimens. One region of the FTIR spectrum of particular interest (the amide I spectral region) was resolved into its underlying components. Of these components, the relative percent area ratio of two subbands at approximately 1660 cm(-1) and approximately 1690 cm(-1) was related to collagen cross-links that are abundant in mineralized tissues (i.e., pyridinoline [Pyr] and dehydrodihydroxylysinonorleucine [deH-DHLNL]). This study shows that it is feasible to monitor Pyr and DHLNL collagen cross-links spatial distribution in mineralized tissues. The spectroscopic parameter established in this study may be used in FTIRI analyses, thus enabling the calculation of relative Pyr/DHLNL amounts in thin (approximately 5 microm) calcified tissue sections with a spatial resolution of approximately 7 microm.

Non-NASA Center↗

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Fourier approach to cloud motion estimation

A Fourier phase-difference technique for cloud motion estimation from pairs of pictures is described, and results obtained using this technique are compared with the results of a Fourier-domain cross-correlation scheme. The phase-difference technique makes use of the phase of the cross-spectral density and allows motion estimates to be made for individual spatial frequencies, which are related to cloud pattern dimensions. When objects being tracked do not change their shape, size, and orientation to more than a limited degree, both techniques are effective. The phase difference technique is relatively sensitive to the presence of mixtures of motions, changes in cloud shape, and edge effects; in these circumstances, the cross-correlation scheme is preferable. It is suggested that the Fourier transform phase difference estimation methods can be applied in problems such as landmark matching.

Arking, A.↗

A technique for interpretation of multispectral remote sensor data

The author has identified the following significant results. The U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station is engaged in a study to detect from ERTS-1 satellite data alterations to the absorption and scattering properties caused by movement of suspended particles and solutes in selected areas of the Chesapeake Bay and to correlate the data to determine the feasibility of delineating flow patterns, flushing action of the estuary, and sediment and pollutant dispersion. As a part of this study, ADP techniques have been developed that permit automatic interpretation of data from any multispectral remote sensor with computer systems which have limited memory capacity and computing speed. The multispectral remote sensor is considered as a reflectance spectrophotometer. The data which define the spectral reflectance characteristics of a scene are scanned pixel by pixel. Each pixel whose spectral reflectance matches a reference spectrum is identified, and the results are shown in a map that identifies the locations where spectrum matches were detected and spectrum that was matched. The interpretation technique is described and an example of interpreted data from ERTS-1 is presented.

Williamson, A. N.↗

Conjugate field approaches for active array compensation

Two approaches for calculating the compensating feed array complex excitations are namely, the indirect conjugate field matching (ICFM) and the direct conjugate field matching (DCFM) approach. In the ICFM approach the compensating feed array excitations are determined by considering the transmitting mode and the reciprocity principle. The DCF, in contrast calculates the array excitations by integrating directly the induced surface currents on the reflector under a receiving mode. DCFM allows the reflector to be illuminated by an incident plane wave with a tapered amplitude. The level of taper can effectively control the sidelobe level of the compensated antenna pattern. Both approaches are examined briefly.

Acosta, R. J.↗

Mechanisms of selective attention and space motion sickness

The neural mismatch theory of space motion sickness asserts that the central and peripheral autonomic sequelae of discordant sensory input arise from central integrative processes falling to reconcile patterns of incoming sensory information with existing memory. Stated differently, perceived novelty reaches a stress level as integrative mechanisms fail to return a sense of control to the individual in the new environment. Based on evidence summarized here, the severity of the neural mismatch may be dependent upon the relative amount of attention selectively afforded to each sensory input competing for control of behavior. Components of the limbic system may play important roles in match-mismatch operations, be therapeutically modulated by antimotion sickness drugs, and be optimally positioned to control autonomic output.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Durability of YSZ coated Ti2AlC in 1300°C high velocity burner rig tests

A thermal barrier coating system survived 500 h in cyclic burner rig tests at 1300°C, exceeding the life of all previous systems. An yttria stabilized zirconia (7YSZ) thermal barrier coating (TBC) was plasma sprayed on the oxidation resistant Ti2AlC MAX phase and tested in a jet fuel burner. No coating spallation or recession was observed, only a 2.4 mg/sq.cm mass gain due to typical cubic Al2O3 oxidation kinetics. The modest weight gain contrasted with large TBC spallation or oxide volatility losses that might occur under cyclic, high velocity (~100 m/s) burner conditions. The coating surface exhibited colonies of [111]flourite fiber-textured columns separated by craze crack patterns, but with no visible moisture attack. The thickness of the alumina scale under the YSZ face was >20 μm, more than twice that formed on TBC/superalloy systems at failure. TiO2 nodules, initially formed on the uncoated backside, were then removed as volatile hydroxides formed in high temperature, high velocity water vapor (~10%). Overall, the test indicated the exceptional stability of the YSZ/Ti2AlC system under turbine conditions, due in large part to good thermal expansion matching.

alumina, MAX phases, thermal barrier coatings (TBC↗

Perspectives and progress on wurtzite ferroelectrics: Synthesis, characterization, theory, and device applications

Wurtzite ferroelectrics are an emerging material class that expands the functionality and application space of wide bandgap semiconductors. Promising physical properties of binary wurtzite semiconductors include a large, reorientable spontaneous polarization, direct band gaps that span from the infrared to ultraviolet, large thermal conductivities and acoustic wave velocities, high mobility electron and hole channels, and low optical losses. The ability to reverse the polarization in ternary wurtzite semiconductors at room temperature enables memory and analog type functionality and quasi-phase matching in optical devices and boosts the ecosystem of wurtzite semiconductors, provided the appropriate combination of properties can be achieved for any given application. In this article, advances in the design, synthesis, and characterization of wurtzite ferroelectric materials and devices are discussed. Highlights include: the direct and quantitative observation of polarization reversal of ~135 μC/cm 2 charge in Al 1-x B x N via electron microscopy, Al 1-x B x N ferroelectric domain patterns poled down to 400 nm in width via scanning probe microscopy, and full polarization retention after over 1000 h of 200 °C baking and a 2× enhancement relative to ZnO in the nonlinear optical response of Zn 1-x Mg x O. In conclusion, the main tradeoffs, challenges, and opportunities in thin film deposition, heterostructure design and characterization, and device fabrication are overviewed.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Dark Field Proton Radiography (Los Alamos LDRD Report)

Proton radiography at LANL (pRad) takes advantage of the high flux, high proton energy, and flexible timing structure of LANSCE's 800-MeV proton beam to visualize dense, dynamic systems under extreme strain. With recent needs identified for the development of the W93, the pRad team has been actively searching for ways to increase the facility's radiographic capabilities. Recently, we discovered that utilizing two magnetic lenses (one upstream and one downstream of the object), and specific combinations of collimator choices within the two lenses, that the signal-to-noise ratio was improved by more than a factor of two. However, we did not fully understand the mechanism, and found that results did not match forward modeling predictions. This work specifically sought to implement an engineering solution to solve this problem, through the development of an actuated collimator that reduced the time required to swap collimator settings from a typical 4-8 hours, to less than 30 seconds. This allowed, in combination with a unique multi-material, multi-resolution stepwedge, to acquire an unprecedently enormous dataset, with in total 24 collimation combinations, and multiple diffuser settings and pulse patterns, equivalent to almost a full run cycle's worth of data in a few days. This massive dataset is currently being harnessed to make a fully-predictive, ultra-fast Python-based model of the system, to dial in specific settings for any future experiments that fully optimize that radiographic sensitivity to the material of interest.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Experimental investigation of the flow field in the head-end star slot section of a solid rocket motor

A test program has been developed to investigate the complex flowfield in the head-end, star grain section of a solid rocket motor. Documentation of the flowfield pattern is to be obtained using both flow visualization techniques and quantitative methods, including static pressure measurements, heat transfer coefficient measurements, and hot-wire anemometry. A cold-flow, one-tenth-scale model based on the geometry of the Space Shuttle SRM head-end section and its single-port igniter, along with two models of a four-port igniter, have been constructed. The scale factor is derived from a scaling analysis which matches Reynolds number between the model and the full-scale flowfield in the star grain section. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 14 x 14 inch trisonic wind tunnel will be utilized for the cold flow tests. Since the work is still in progress, no results are included.

Ciucci, A.↗

Memory-Related Frontal Brainwaves Predict Transition to Mild Cognitive Impairment in Healthy Older Individuals Five Years Before Diagnosis

Background: Early prognosis of high-risk older adults for amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), using noninvasive and sensitive neuromarkers, is key for early prevention of Alzheimer’s disease. We have developed individualized measures in electrophysiological brain signals during working memory that distinguish patients with aMCI from age-matched cognitively intact older individuals. Objective: Here we test longitudinally the prognosis of the baseline neuromarkers for aMCI risk. We hypothesized that the older individuals diagnosed with incident aMCI already have aMCI-like brain signatures years before diagnosis. Methods: Electroencephalogram (EEG) and memory performance were recorded during a working memory task at baseline. The individualized baseline neuromarkers, annual cognitive status, and longitudinal changes in memory recall scores up to 10 years were analyzed. Results: Seven of the 19 cognitively normal older adults were diagnosed with incident aMCI for a median 5.2 years later. The seven converters’ frontal brainwaves were statistically identical to those patients with diagnosed aMCI (n = 14) at baseline. Importantly, the converters’ baseline memory-related brainwaves (reduced mean frontal responses to memory targets) were significantly different from those who remained normal. Furthermore, differentiation pattern of left frontal memory-related responses (targets versus nontargets) was associated with an increased risk hazard of aMCI (HR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.03, 2.08). Conclusion: The memory-related neuromarkers detect MCI-like brain signatures about five years before diagnosis. The individualized frontal neuromarkers index increased MCI risk at baseline. These noninvasive neuromarkers during our Bluegrass memory task have great potential to be used repeatedly for individualized prognosis of MCI risk and progression before clinical diagnosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Path-Integrated X-Ray Digital Image Correlation using Synthetic Reference Images

X-rays can provide images when an object is visibly obstructed, allowing for motion measurements via x-ray digital image correlation (DIC). However, x-ray images are path-integrated and contain data for all objects between the source and detector. If multiple objects are present in the x-ray path, conventional DIC algorithms may fail to correlate the x-ray images. A new DIC algorithm called path-integrated (PI)-DIC addresses this issue by reformulating the matching criterion for DIC to account for multiple, independently-moving objects. PI-DIC requires a set of reference x-ray images of each independent object. However, due to experimental constraints, such reference images might not be obtainable from the experiment. Here, this work focuses on the reliability of synthetically-generated reference images, in such cases. A simplified exemplar is used for demonstration purposes, consisting of two aluminum plates with tantalum x-ray DIC patterns undergoing independent rigid translations. Synthetic reference images based on the “as-designed” DIC patterns were generated. However, PI-DIC with the synthetic images suffered some biases due to manufacturing defects of the patterns. A systematic study of seven identified defect types found that an incorrect feature diameter was the most influential defect. Synthetic images were re-generated with the corrected feature diameter, and PI-DIC errors were improved by a factor of 3-4. Final biases ranged from 0.00-0.04 px, and standard uncertainties ranged from 0.06-0.11 px. In conclusion, PI-DIC accurately measured the independent displacement of two plates from a single series of path-integrated x-ray images using synthetically-generated reference images, and the methods and conclusions derived here can be extended to more generalized cases involving stereo PI-DIC for arbitrary specimen geometry and motion. This work thus extends the application space of x-ray imaging for full-field DIC measurements of multiple surfaces or objects in extreme environments where optical DIC is not possible.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Holocene thinning of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers, Antarctica, and implications for grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea

Chronologies of glacier deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains provide important constraints on grounding-line retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. However, between Beardmore Glacier and Ross Island – a distance of some 600 km – the existing chronologies are generally sparse and far from the modern grounding line, leaving the past dynamics of this vast region largely unconstrained. We present exposure ages of glacial deposits at three locations alongside the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System – including within 10 km of the modern grounding line – that record several hundred meters of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene thickening relative to present. As the ice sheet grounding line in the Ross Sea retreated, Hatherton Glacier thinned steadily from about 9 until about 3 ka. Our data are equivocal about the maximum thickness and Mid-Holocene to Early Holocene history at the mouth of Darwin Glacier, allowing for two conflicting deglaciation scenarios: (1) ~500 m of thinning from 9 to 3 ka, similar to Hatherton Glacier, or (2) ~950 m of thinning, with a rapid pulse of ~600 m thinning at around 5 ka. We test these two scenarios using a 1.5-dimensional flowband model, forced by ice thickness changes at the mouth of Darwin Glacier and evaluated by fit to the chronology of deposits at Hatherton Glacier. The constraints from Hatherton Glacier are consistent with the interpretation that the mouth of Darwin Glacier thinned steadily by ~500 m from 9 to 3 ka. Rapid pulses of thinning at the mouth of Darwin Glacier are ruled out by the data at Hatherton Glacier. This contrasts with some of the available records from the mouths of other outlet glaciers in the Transantarctic Mountains, many of which thinned by hundreds of meters over roughly a 1000-year period in the Early Holocene. The deglaciation histories of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are best matched by a steady decrease in catchment area through the Holocene, suggesting that Byrd and/or Mulock glaciers may have captured roughly half of the catchment area of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers during the last deglaciation. An ensemble of three-dimensional ice sheet model simulations suggest that Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are strongly buttressed by convergent flow with ice from neighboring Byrd and Mulock glaciers, and by lateral drag past Minna Bluff, which could have led to a pattern of retreat distinct from other glaciers throughout the Transantarctic Mountains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Delta-K ocean wave spectrometer - Aircraft measurements and theoretical system analysis

Measurements of the relative strength of ocean surface wave spectral components have been made from an aircraft using the two-frequency microwave resonance technique. A coherent Ku-band radar was used to study the Bragg type resonance matching (at the difference frequency Delta-f) to the surface wave components. The spatial spectrum of the surface reflectivity modulation was then computed as the value of Delta-f was varied over a matching range of approximately 15 150 m in surface wavelength. This paper contains experimental results from flights conducted during the 1979 MARSEN project and the 1980 ARSLOE project, and the objective here is to present the radar results in terms of the variety of surface illumination geometries encountered. It will be shown that the MARSEN results, with the narrow footprint, are consistent with a one-dimensional theoretical approach and that the ARSLOE results, with a symmetric beam pattern, agree well with the existing two-dimensional theory.

Weissman, D. E.↗

The distribution of earthquakes with depth and stress in subducting slabs

The global variation of Benioff zone seismicity with depth and the orientation of stress axes of deep and intermediate earthquakes is explained using numerical models of subducting slabs. Models that match the seismicity and stress require a barrier to flow at the 670 km seismic discontinuity. The barrier may be a viscosity increase of at least an order of magnitude or a chemical discontinuity. Instantaneous flow is subparallel to the slabs for models with a viscosity increase but contorted for models with a chemical barrier. Log N (number of earthquakes) decreases linearly to 250-300 km depth and increases thereafter. Stress magnitude in the models shows the same pattern, in accord with experiments showing N proportional to e(k-sigma), with k a constant and sigma the stress magnitude. The models predict downdip compression in the slabs at depths below 300-400 km, as observed for earthquake stress axes.

Vassiliou, M. S.↗

Paleomagnetic Analysis Using SQUID Microscopy

Superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) microscopes are a new generation of instruments that map magnetic fields with unprecedented spatial resolution and moment sensitivity. Unlike standard rock magnetometers, SQUID microscopes map magnetic fields rather than measuring magnetic moments such that the sample magnetization pattern must be retrieved from source model fits to the measured field data. In this paper, we presented the first direct comparison between paleomagnetic analyses on natural samples using joint measurements from SQUID microscopy and moment magnetometry. We demonstrated that in combination with apriori geologic and petrographic data, SQUID microscopy can accurately characterize the magnetization of lunar glass spherules and Hawaiian basalt. The bulk moment magnitude and direction of these samples inferred from inversions of SQUID microscopy data match direct measurements on the same samples using moment magnetometry. In addition, these inversions provide unique constraints on the magnetization distribution within the sample. These measurements are among the most sensitive and highest resolution quantitative paleomagnetic studies of natural remanent magnetization to date. We expect that this technique will be able to extend many other standard paleomagnetic techniques to previously inaccessible microscale samples.

Weiss, Benjamin P.↗